摘要
以模糊理论和时间序列分析理论为基础,建立了参数的模糊概率加权移动预测模型。用该模型预测得到的预测值时间序列中的每个数据都能从一定程度上反映一段时间内参数的平均水平,而且消除了奇点对预测值的影响,部分消除了样本数据中不确定成分对预测值的影响。对继电器触点闭合过程的静态接触电阻和弹跳时间进行了统计分析,结果表明继电器的接触失效与触点闭合过程的静态接触电阻和弹跳时间的模糊概率分布密切相关。静态接触电阻和弹跳时间的模糊概率加权移动预测值时间序列能够明显反映触点的静态和动态接触性能的变化。
Based on the fuzzy theory and time series analysis, the fuzzy probability weight moving prediction model is developed. By the model, every value in the time sequence of the predicted results describes the average level of the predicted parameter in a period of time to a certain extent. Moreover, the influence of strange points on the prediction results is eliminated completely and that of the uncertain component in the sample data is restrained partially. The statistics analysis is taken on the static contact resistance and the bounce time of the relay＇s contacts in the closing process. The analysis result shows that the contact failure of relay has close relation to the fuzzy probability distribution of the two parameters. The time series of the prediction results of the static contact resistance obviously reflects the static contact performance of contacts. And that of the bounce time distinctly reflects the dynamic contact performance of contacts.
出处
《电工技术学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第3期83-88,共6页
Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society
关键词
模糊概率
时间序列
接触电阻
弹跳时间
接触性能
Fuzzy probability, time series, contact resistance, bounce time, contact performance
