摘要
粮食安全是一个地区战略安全的重要组成部分,而耕地保护源于粮食安全问题.本文在对山东大学人口、粮食单产、粮食消费结构以及城乡居民健康饮食结构进行合理预测的基础上运用简便灵活的Lindo模型对2010年山东大学的耕地数量和种植结构进行模拟.结果显示,到达2010年山东大学耕地数量应达到37.236万hm2才能满足基本的粮食安全.与2003年相比较,粮食作物和蔬菜的种植面积逐渐减少,水果、油料作物、棉花等的种植面积都需要有不同程度的提高,这种种植结构的变化基本符合山东大学城乡居民饮食结构的调整在此基础上进一步提出了山东大学进行耕地保护的5项措施,为山东大学耕地保护提供可行性参考.
Food security is one impoaant portion of area stratagem security and land protection rooted it. Based on multi-methods,for forecasting the population,food output consume configuration and healthy food configuration of people,we built Lindo models and simulated the land amount and planting structure of Jinan in 2010. The result indicates that the land amount of Jinan should be more than 3.723 6 × 10^5 hm^2 and food should be security. Compared with 2003, the area of foodstuff and vegetable reduces yearly but other agrotype area such as fruit, oil plants and cotton should in- crease in different degree in 2010. This changes agree with the adjust of the people＇s bite and sup improvement. Finally, five suggestive measures aimed to land protection in Jinan are put forward.
出处
《山东师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2006年第1期110-113,共4页
Journal of Shandong Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
山东省人民政府院士基金项目"数字国土关键技术研究(2002~1009)
