摘要
延续对上海南京东路商业街消费者的“入口消费行为”研究,研究消费者的“回游消费行为”。引入马尔可夫链(MarkovChain)模型,并证明该方法可以准确地测算商业空间的消费者活动人次。用嵌套分对数模型(nestedlogitmodel)解释消费者的空间选择行为。发现模型对南京东路消费者样本的拟合取得了良好的拟合优度,模型参数的行为意义与入口模型基本取得一致。整合入口模型、回游模型和马尔可夫模型后实施现实模拟,发现商业立地在吸引消费者过程中的重要性以及模型方法在多目的规划中应用的潜力。
The Markov Chain model is introduced to integrate the ＂entrance shopping behavior＂ and ＂multistop shopping behavior＂ of consumers on East Nanjing Road, It is demonstrated that the total number of visitors in the commercial space can be accurately estimated by using Markov Chain. The multistop shopping behavior is fitted into a nested logit model with a bi-level selection structure, which gets a satisfactory goodness-of-fit on the consumer survey data. Parameters of the model are discussed for the behavioral implications and are consistent with those of the ＂entrance behavior model＂. At last, the entrance model, the multistop model and Markov Chain model are integrated to estimate the consumer flows under some real developments, which shows the importance of shop location and the potential to use the models for multi-purpose commercial space planning,
出处
《城市规划》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第2期9-17,共9页
City Planning Review
基金
国家自然科学基金课题(批准号:40271045)。
