摘要
本文在用商品贸易权重计算有效汇率的基础上,探讨了用资本移动权重和债务权重计算有效汇率的新模型,并调查和实证分析了由这些模型决定的人民币有效汇率时序列运动以及它们与宏观经济变量之间的长期关系,以解决外汇管理中人民币升值压力上升问题。我们得出:在我国,基于贸易权重的实际有效汇率与基于债务权重的人民币实际有效汇率有较高的相关性,但基于贸易权重的与基于资本移动权重的没有相关性的结论。因此,我们认为在人民币升值压力较大时,货币当局可以用调整我国对外债务结构来替代调整对外贸易差额。
This paper discusses two models of measuring the effective exchange rate by using capital-flow-weighted and foreign-loan-weighted methods based on trade-weighted effective exchange rate. At the same time, the paper surveys the effective exchange rate of RMB by using models above and empirically analyzes the movements among various series and the connection with macro-economic-variables in order to find a solution to abate the pressure of the appreciation of RMB. We find that trade-weighted real effective exchange rate of RMB correlates with the foreign-loan-weighted real effective exchange rate, but not with the capital-flow-weighted rate. Therefore the government may adjust the structure of foreign-loans by currency instead of the balance of trade when the pressure of RMB exchange rate is great.
出处
《运筹与管理》
CSCD
2005年第4期130-135,共6页
Operations Research and Management Science
基金
中国科学院留学经费择优支持回国工作基金资助项目(20011108222051)
教育部留学回国人员启动资金资助项目
关键词
汇率
人民币有效汇率
ADF检验
权重
协整
exchange rate
effective exchange rate of RMB
ADF test
weight
cointegration
