摘要
根据灰色系统理论的数列预测理论,针对某高速公路沥青路面使用性能中的基本指标建立灰色预测模型,模型精度采用后验方差验证,对于精度较差的模型,采用二次拟合参数法提高模型的精度,并根据预测值与实际检测数据的对比,分析模型预测结果的合理性以及指标的发展情况.利用灰色系统理论预测路面使用性能具有一定的科学应用性.
The paper describes how to establish a gray model based on three fundamental indexes of asphalt pavement performance to forecast the performance of asphalt pavement.Gray system theory is applied to establish a model to forecast the performance of one express way in Jiangsu Province.Through the forecast data comparison and the original data and improving the precision of the model,the rationality of the model is analysed.Some problems in application of the forecast model and some advanced methods to improve the precision and rationality of the forecast model are put forward.The application of gray system theory to forecast pavement performance proves to be a scientific one.
出处
《桂林工学院学报》
北大核心
2005年第2期173-175,共3页
Journal of Guilin University of Technology
关键词
沥青路面
灰色系统理论
使用性能
精度
gray system theory
pavement performance
gray model
precision
