摘要
本文初步总结了西北地区近十几年来地震综合预报的探索与进展。结果表明,在中长期趋势预测方面,对多数5级以上破坏性地震已具有测震学监测基础,综合预测结果基本上通过了统计检验;在短临预测方面仅对乌鲁木齐地区和兰州、银川、西安和武都范围以内发生的6 1/2级以上地震具有初步的监测基础。由19个震例获得以测震学资料为主的中长期趋势异常共73项,以地下水位、水氧、地电和地磁资料为主的短临异常共59项。本文概述了有关异常的特征和综合预报思路,讨论了有关问题和动向。
This paper has made a brief introduction to the main achievements and development of the comprehensive earthquake prediction in the Northwestern China. The analysas show that in the aspect of intermediate-long term tendencies, there is elementary surveying foundation for most destructive earthquakes(M≥5). The results of the comprehensive observation have basically passed statistical tests. There is elementary surveying foundation of short-imminent precursor networks for earthquakes (M≥6.5) only within Urumqi, Lanzhou, Xi'an, Wuzhong and Wudu districts. From 24 seismic cases we get 73 items of intermediate-long term tending anomaly data which are mainly seismometrical ones, 53 items of short-lmminent anomaly data which are mainly groundwater level, radon, telluric current, This paper has summarized the chief features of temporal and spatial distribution about the anomalies and discussed the new problems and new directions in the comprehensive seismic predictions.
出处
《西北地震学报》
CSCD
1989年第2期61-69,共9页
Northwestern Seismological Journal
