摘要
实现对地价的全面监测、分析和预测,有助于城市基准地价的快速更新和政府对土地资源的宏观控制。过去的地价预警预报模型研究主要存在两点不足:一是没有建立科学完善的数学模型,也没有用多种数学模型相互验证预测结论;二是没有充分利用现有的信息,如地价监测体系的信息,致使预测地价水平与城市实际地价水平、预测走势与实际变化有偏差。该文利用地价监测体系的信息,建立马尔可夫链地价预测模型,并与时间序列模型、空间分布预测模型的预测结果相比较。马尔可夫链地价预测模型是概率分布式预测模型,适用于对地价变化进行科学的概率预测,预测结果与实际情况吻合较好。
The variation tendency of land-value is difficult to grasp because there are many factors influencing land-value and some factors are difficult to measure exactly.While land-value management is an effective method in land utilization,so looking for a new mathematical model for land-value forecast is very important. There are two main disadvantages during the process of researching the land-value forecast system.Firstly,the integrated mathematical model hasn't been set up during the construction of the system,and the real estate cycle theory hasn't been introduced.Secondly,the current information hasn't been well utilized,such as the information about dynamic monitoring system of land-value.When it is applied,there still exists the deviation between the forecasted land-value and the actual land-value,as well as between the forecasted trend and the real change.This paper gives some solutions as follows: To make full use of the existing accurate information of land-value dynamic monitoring system,and set up time-series model and forecast model of spatial distribution.To verify the conclusions by the real estate cycle theory and expertise database. Markov Chain forecasting model can be used to predict the urban land value trend roundly,by means of which,all of the possible results are attainable.In other words,it can forecast the probability of things.As the land value change has no aftereffect,it is forecasted using other methods maybe get inaccurate prediction,while Markov Chain forecasting model can avoid that problem,and can attain the possibility of each result by using the mathematical model of probability distribution.Therefore,in the incompletely competitive,abnormal land market and with insufficient information,Markov Chain forecasting model is an effective approach to solve this problem. This paper applies the theory of Markov Chain to establishing mathematical model of land value's fluctuation and anticipation.The theory of the cycle of land-value's motion and maximization of administrator's and our government's gain is proposed.The case studies have proved that this model and its application are feasible.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第1期56-60,共5页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
国土资源大调查子项目"城市地价动态监测体系建立"
