摘要
犯罪动态预测,是指采用定量分析方法,依据时间数列资料的自身规律对某些现象未来发展的趋向、水平和程度进行的一种计量和推测。影响犯罪的变量错综复杂,因此反映治安状况的发案数经常上下波动。运用灰色系统理论分析、预测犯罪动态发展变化规律,对科学决策、优化警力部署,实现对犯罪的精准打击都有着极其重大的意义。
The Grey System theory and its application to the prediction of dynamic tendency of crimes are discussed. The optimal GM (1, 1) was applied to the prediction of the figure of crime yearly and monthly. The tested accuracy and the results calculated by the model show that the model is reliable and accurate. Therefore the application of Grey System theory is feasible and reasonable for the prediction of dynamic tendency of crimes.
出处
《中国人民公安大学学报（社会科学版）》
北大核心
2005年第1期44-48,共5页
Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Social Sciences Edition
关键词
灰色系统理论
犯罪预测
应用:模型
Grey System theory, prediction of crimes, application
