摘要
从对广东有关史料记载等资料的整理分析入手,选取史料中1480～1940年间共460年的自然灾害记载,分别采用寒、暖年数统计法和湿润指数法建立不同的指标序列分析,认为,广东的小冰期开始于1480's,结束于1890's,其间有3次较为明显的冷期,分别出现于1480's～1540's,1610's～1780's,1830's～1890's,相邻冷期间为暖期,在不同的冷暖时期水热配置模式也不相同.在小冰期的不同时期具有不同的自然灾害特征,冷期内发生的灾害次数远多于暖期中发生的灾害次数.还收集整理了历史时期发生的厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜事件,并对其与广东气候及灾害特征的关系进行了初步的探讨,发现厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜事件的发生对广东各种自然灾害的发生影响不大,几者之间关系并不显著;拉尼娜事件对广东冬季气温则具有较大影响.
Based on the historical records about cold winter with snowfall,frost or freeze occurred in Guangdong during the past 460 years(1480～1940AD), using different methods to analyze, it is drawn a conclusion that the Little Ice Age in Guangdong began at 1480's and ended at 1890's. As a result, it has been found out that the Little Ice Age can be divided into three cold periods, i.e. the first (1480's～1540's), the second (1610's～1780's), the third (1830's～1890's), while two warm periods intercalated in the cold ones. The disposal pattern of water and warm combinations were also different in different periods, and there were four kinds of disposal pattern of water and warm combinations including cold-wet, cold-dry, warm-wet and warm-dry. There existed different characteristics of natural disasters in different periods, and more natural disasters in the cold periods than those in the warm periods.According to the historical data, it also can be found that the EL Nino incidents and the La Nina incidents happened during the historical periods had few influence to do with the climate changes of Guangdong. At the same time one also can see that the EL Nino incidents and the La Nina incidents seemed to have nothing to do with the natural disasters happened in Guangdong, and the winter temperature of Guangdong was affected by the La Nina incident greatly. It is hoped that these discoveries could offer some values in part for the development of the economic and society of Guangdong Province.
出处
《华南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2004年第4期123-131,共9页
Journal of South China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
广东省自然科学基金资助项目(031522)
教育部霍英东基金资助项目(91021)
关键词
拉尼娜
冷期
暖期
小冰期
厄尔尼诺
湿润指数
灾害特征
气候
热配
冬季
Guangdong
the Little Ice Age
climate changes
the characteristics of the nature disaster
the EL Nino and the La Nina incident
