摘要
本文对人民币汇率形成机制问题进行了较为深入的探讨与研究。论文认为人民币汇率升值之争本质上是贸易问题之争。当前人民币大幅升值对中国乃至亚洲经济发展都是不利的。完善人民币汇率形成机制,保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡的水平上基本稳定,是人民币汇率制度改革的目标。应进一步推进改革,形成更加适应市场供求变化和更为灵活的人民币汇率形成机制。(一)我国应当利用外贸平价理论来确定人民币汇率定价基础。(二)逐步实现以一篮子货币为基础的人民币汇率形成机制。(三)当前应增加人民币汇率调整的灵活性,扩大汇率调整幅度。(四)加快人民币汇率的市场形成机制建设,实现合理的汇率水平。(五)进行利率改革,尽快完成利率市场化的进程。(六)加快国有商业银行改革的步伐。(七)建立健全宏观经济调控机制。(八)逐步实现人民币资本和金融项目可兑换。
This paper explores the issue of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. The author argues that in essence the debate about RMB exchange rate appreciation is that of trade issues. Right now, it is disadvantageous for China and even for the whole Asian economic development to appreciate RMB exchange rate sharply. The goals of RMB exchange rate system reform are to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and to keep RMB exchange rate steady in a rational and balanced level. In order to make RMB exchange rate more flexible and reflect the change of market supply and demand, the reform should be focus on the following aspects: (1) pricing RMB exchange rate based on foreign trade parity theory; (2) pegging the Yuan to a basket of currencies gradually; (3) enhancing the flexibility of RMB exchange rate and enlarging the magnitude of exchange rate adjustment; (4) establishing a market-oriented formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate to realize a rational exchange rate; (5) liberalizing the interest rate system and complete the process as soon as possible;(6) accelerating the pace of state-owned commercial bank reform;(7)establishing and improving the macro economic control mechanism;(8) realizing convertibility of capital and financial account step by step.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第1期43-51,共9页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金"WTO与中国商业银行的改革与创新"(70373012)资助。
关键词
人民币汇率
外贸平价理论
汇率形成机制
RMB exchange rate, foreign trade rarity theory, exchange rate formation mechanism
