摘要
在回顾平均风概率分析的基础上 ,结合概率曲线相关系数法和极大似然参数估计法 ,提出了一种高效、强稳定性的统计分析方法 -逐步迭代估计法。由此建立的极值分布非线性方程的求解策略克服了求解极值Ⅱ、Ⅲ型分布参数时不收敛的问题。本文以Monte Carlo数值模拟和上海川沙气象站平均风概率描述为例 ,验证了此方法的适用性和可靠性。
Probability analysis of mean wind was combined with method of probability plot correlation coefficient and maximum verisimilitude estimation,and then the iterated-gradually estimative algorithm,a method for statistic analysis with higher efficiency and stability,was proposed.Strategy for seeking solution of nonlinear equation of extreme distribution was established to overcome the problem about no convergence for solving Ⅱ and Ⅲ-distribution parameter of extreme value.The applicability and reliability of proposed method were validated by Monte-Carlo numerical simulation and probability evaluation of mean wind of Cuansha weather station,Shanghai,as examples.
出处
《土木工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第6期41-46,共6页
China Civil Engineering Journal
关键词
平均风
极值分布
概率曲线相关系数法
极大似然法
Monte-Carlo数值模拟
mean wind
distribution of extreme value
probability plot correlation coefficient
Maximum Verisimilitude Method
Monte-Carlo numerical simulation
