摘要
本文在综合各种信息后 ,认为应当把水资源的有限性和径流过程的非线性作为径流长期预测的重要前提 ,并在此基础上首次建立了对径流进行长期趋势预测的生命旋回模型。通过黄河上游贵德站和兰州站实例验证表明模型预测精度较高 ,符合规范要求。利用该模型定量预测贵德站和兰州站未来 10 0年径流量 ,结果表明黄河上游径流变化有减小趋势 ,这一结论为黄河上游梯级电站的规划。
Based on all kinds of information and the important premise of limited water resource and non linear runoff process, the life cycle model for forecasting long term trend of runoff is presented in this paper. Forecast of runoff by the life cycle model of Guide station and Lanzhou station on the upper reaches of Yellow River is proved that forecast precision is high and meets the requirement of standard. This model may be applied to quantitatively forecast the future secular runoff of Yellow River on Guide station and Lanzhou station respectively. It indicates that runoff of Yellow River will be gradually decreased and the model provides the scientific base for planning, design and operation management of cascade hydropower stations on the upper reaches of Yellow River.
出处
《水力发电学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第4期1-4,共4页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
基金
国家自然基金资助项目 (50 0 790 2 1 )
陕西省重点实验室项目 (0 2JS37)
关键词
径流变化
长期预测
生命旋回
黄河上游
runoff change
long term forecasting
life cycle
the upper reaches of the Yellow river
