摘要
笔者基于吉林省1978年~2011年的数据,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应和方差分解分析方法,实证检验了吉林省农村金融规模和效率与农村经济增长的关系。结果表明,从长期来看,农村金融规模和农村金融效率与农村经济增长之间存在均衡关系,农村金融规模对农村经济增长具有显著的负向效应,农村金融效率对农村经济增长具有显著的正向效应;农村金融规模与农村经济增长互为格兰杰因果关系,农村金融效率与农村经济增长不存在格兰杰因果关系,农村经济增长是农村固定资产投资的格兰杰原因。从短期来看,农村金融规模和农村金融效率对农村经济增长的影响并不显著;相反,农村经济增长对农村金融规模和农村金融效率的影响显著。
Using the data of Jilin Province from 1978 to 2011,and using time series analysis method,the paper analyzed the relationship among rural financial scale,efficiency and rural economic growth. The results showed that:( 1) In the long run,there is a longterm equilibrium relationship among rural financial scale,rural financial efficiency and rural economy.( 2) Rural financial scale has a significant negative effect on rural economy growth,however,rural finance efficiency has a significant positive effect on rural economic growth.( 3) There is Granger Causality between rural financial scale and the rural economic growth,and such causality doesn't exist between rural financial efficiency and rural economic growth,furthermore,rural economic growth is Granger Causality of rural fixed asset investment.( 4) In the short term,rural financial scale and efficiency have not significant affect on rural economic growth. Conversely,rural economic growth has significant impact on rural finance scale and rural finance efficiency.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第3期28-34,共7页
Economic Survey
基金
教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(12JZD050)
吉林省社会科学基金项目(2012B107)
关键词
农村金融规模
农村金融效率
农村经济增长
Rural Financial Scale
Rural Financial Efficiency
Rural Economic Growth
