摘要
自1988年11月6日云南澜沧—耿马发生7.6级地震以来,我国大陆地区已有3年半未发生Ms≥7.0级地震。另外,自1991年2月25日新疆柯坪发生6.5地震以来,上述地区已有15个月未发生Ms≥6.0级地震。多数学者认为,6级地震长时间的缺失,意味着我国大陆地区7级地震的迫近。在这一活跃期内。下一个7级强震究竟发生在何处?
The latitude migrating characteristics of earthquake in the western part of the Aerjin fault zone were studied in this paper. No matter once migrating or multiple migrating, the magnitude of the next earthquake is similar at least than that the of first earthquake and the probability of M≥6.8 earthquake is 56 percent. Maybe the Hetian earthquake (M=5.9) on Apr. 5, 1992 in Xinjiang province is a signal that strong earthquake will occur in Qinghai、Sichuan、 Gansu province.
出处
《高原地震》
1992年第3期30-35,共6页
Plateau Earthquake Research
