摘要
ＩＭＰＬＩＣＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＣＨＡＮＧＥＦＯＲＡＧＲＩＣＵＬＴＵＲＡＬＰＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＩＮＥＡＳＴＥＲＮＡＲＥＡＳＯＦＣＨＩＮＡＷａｎｇＦｕｔａｎｇ（王馥棠）ＩＭＰＬＩＣＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＣＨＡＮＧＥＦＯＲＡＧＲＩＣＵＬＴＵ...
Abstract Based on the analyses on amplitudes of historical variation of temperature and precipitation and characters offood production in the last 40 years, according to the climate change scenario presented by working group 1,IPCC, the potential impacts of climate change on rice, winter wheat and corn production in eastern agriculturalareas and cropping systems in China in future are simulated in this paper, using the weather-yield model andcropping system model. As a result, it is shown that under the current planting systems and agrotechniques theimpacts of climate change on various crops would not be the same. The impacts for regions, seasons and featuresof crops would be rather significant. And there will be a substantial northward shift of the cropping patterns,such as the northern boundary of triple cropping area would shift from its current border at Changjiang Rivertoward Huanghe River.From all analyses, it is still difficult to draw a specifical conclusion that climate change would beadvantageous or disadvantageous for farm in China, because of significant negative balance between precipitationand evapotranspiration increases although a climate warming would be favourable to diversification andmultiplication of cropping patterns.
