摘要
随着气象科技的快速发展,天气气候预报水平近年来有了显著提高。但由于天气系统的混沌本质,天气气候预报存在可预报性的上限,预报水平的提高已经变得越来越困难。然而随着社会经济的发展,用户对预报需求却是不断提高。预报与用户需求之间存在的矛盾日益增大。预报系统的发展已经遇到瓶颈。对用户来说,预报的主要目的是帮助用户应对不确定的天气风险,进行趋利避害的决策,这使得预报系统与用户之间存在不可剥离的联系。因此,本文将针对国内外研究中涉及用户方面问题的文献进行综述,在探讨预报如何满足用户需求的基础上,提出未来天气预报预测系统的设想。
With the rapid development of meteorological science and technology in recent years, the level of weather and climate forecasts has been significantly raised. Due to inherent uncertainty in forecasting a chaotic weather system, improvement of deterministic weather forecast tends to be limited. Nevertheless, with the social and economic development, the forecast demand of users is increasing gradually. The gap between the forecasting system and users’ need has hindered the improvement of meteorology. In the perspective of users, the purpose of weather/climate forecast is to help them make weather/climate-related decisions at the risk of uncertain weather, and great potential for the improvement of the forecast should arise from the user-end. Therefore, this study will review research literature involving the user aspects in the forecasting system, and on the basis of exploring the possibilities of meeting customers’ needs in forecasting, giving ideas of a future weather/climate forecasting system.
出处
《气象科技进展》
2012年第2期32-37,共6页
Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项"基于多模式集合预报的交互式应用技术研究"(GYHY200906007)
关键词
未来天气预报预测系统
用户端研究
交互式预报系统
future weather forecasting system, user-end study, interactive forecasting system
