摘要
文章运用VAR方法研究通货膨胀、农产品价格、经济增长互相之间的影响。研究发现:(1)GDP的增长有很强的惯性,GDP受CPI和API的影响非常小,而对CPI和API的影响是决定性的。(2)CPI也有很强的惯性,表明通货膨胀一旦发生就不易控制;CPI受GDP的影响很大,受API的影响可以忽略不计;CPI对经济增长有一定的影响,对API的影响也较大。(3)API主要受GDP和CPI的影响,但自身也有滞后影响;API对GDP和CPI的影响可以忽略不计。由此可以发现,我国目前过高的经济增长是以偏高的CPI和API为代价,而且是高的CPI导致了高的API。
This paper applies VAR to study relations between inflation and agricultural products, economic growth. We find that: 1) GDP growth has strong inertia, and it is influenced little by CPI and API, but has decisive influence on CPI and API; 2) CPI also has strong inertia, which shows that if inflation happens it will not be easily controlled. CPI is influenced greatly by GDP, and little by API. While CPI has certain influence on economic growth, has great influence on API; 3) API is mainly influenced by GDP a...
出处
《生态经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第2期61-65,共5页
Ecological Economy
基金
河南省政府决策研究招标课题(B045)阶段性成果
