摘要
供水行业是国民经济的重要基础,对需水量的准确预测有利于供水部门调度。针对城市供水量波动特点和预报要求,基于ARIMA季节时间序列对城市需水状况建模。通过分析自相关系数(ACF)、偏自相关系数(PACF)等参数辨识模型阶次结构,预报未来需水量趋势,并使用SAS统计软件进行检验。所建立的模型成功应用于上海市中心城区需水预报,对照历史数据表明,模型具有理想的预测精度,能够有效地辅助供水部门进行决策。
Water supply industry is a significant basis of national economy.It s helpful for the water supply administration to make decisions by forecasting water demand.To the city water demand fluctuation character and forecast requirement,ARIMA seasonal time-series model is applied for forecasting.Time-series model order is identified by analyzing parameters such as ACF,PACF.Future water demand trend is forecast and SAS statistical software is applied to verify the result.The ARIMA model proposed has been successf...
出处
《控制工程》
CSCD
2008年第S1期162-164,共3页
Control Engineering of China
基金
上海启明星计划基金资助项目(07QA14030)
