摘要
为了研究公路货物运输价格的影响因素,采用了灰色关联分析方法,从宏观环境、市场供需、运输成本和竞争环境4个方面选取了具有代表性且可量化的11个指标,分析了对于公路货物运输价格的主要影响因子。结果表明:11个指标中1个因子的关联度在0.6~0.75之间,9个因子的关联度在0.75~0.9之间,1个因子的关联度在0.9以上,其中,宏观环境、运输成本、市场需求是影响价格的主要因素。宏观环境中制造业和消费规模增长对公路运价影响较大,关联度分别为0.938和0.81;在燃油价格、通行费和司机薪酬三大公路货运主要成本中,通行费对公路运价影响最大,关联度为0.8;载货汽车拥有量反映了市场供给,其与运价关联度达到0.884。从指标排名来看,制造业PMI、载货汽车拥有量、社会商品零售总额、GDP、工业生产总值及通行费是公路货运价格主要的定价因素。
To study the influencing factors of highway freight transport pricing,by adopting the grey correlation method,11 representative and quantifiable indicators from aspects of macro environment,market supply and demand,transport cost and competitive environment are selected,and the main influencing factors of highway freight transport price are analyzed.The result shows that(1)Among the 11 indicators,the correlation degree of 1 factors is between 0.6-0.75,the correlation degrees of 9 factors are between 0.75-0.9,and the correlation degrees of 1 factor is above 0.9.Macro environment,market demand and transport cost are the main factors affecting the price.(2)In the macro environment,the growths of manufacturing industry and consumption scale have a greater influence on highway freight transport price,with correlation degrees of 0.938 and 0.81 respectively.(3)Among the 3 major highway freight costs(fuel price,toll and driver’s salary),toll has the greatest impact on highway freight transport price,with correlation degree of 0.8.(4)Truck ownership reflects market supply,and its correlation degree with freight transport price reaches 0.884.(5)From the perspective of index ranking,PMI of manufacturing industry,truck ownership,total retail sales of social goods,GDP,gross value of industrial output,and toll fee are the main pricing factors of highway freight transport price.
作者
赵南希
肖荣娜
宿硕
ZHAO Nan-xi;XIAO Rong-na;SU Shuo(Research Institute of Highway,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100088,China)
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第S01期80-85,共6页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
关键词
运输经济
定价因素
灰色关联法
货物运输
影响因子
transport economics
pricing factor
grey correlation method
freight transport
impact factor
