摘要
本文利用纵向数据分析方法(生存分析与多层次线性分析)探讨了我国上市公司本文后面所说的企业、国有企业、非国有企业皆指上市公司。盈余的纵向变化特征。研究发现,我国上市公司盈余的纵向持续时间很短,而且呈现出显著的下降趋势。进一步地,本文通过对数秩检验(log-rank test)检验不同产权类别的公司的Kaplan-Meier存活函数的等同性,发现市属国有企业的盈余持续时间显著比非国有企业、中央直属国有企业和省属国有企业要长,而且市属国有企业的盈余下降趋势更为平缓,此结果与应用Cox回归模型(比例风险模型)和多层次线性模型进行检验的结果一致。我们采用不同的业绩替代变量和放宽衡量业绩是否持续的区间标准进行稳健性检验,所得结果依然保持一致。最后,本文发现我国上市公司盈余呈下降趋势的主要原因为真实经营状况的恶化。本文对监管部门的监管、国有企业的分类改革和投资者的长期投资决策都具有一定的借鉴意义。
This paper studies the characteristics of the vertical development of Chinese Listed Companies’earnings by using longitudinal data analysis method(Survival Analysis Model and Hierarchical Linear Model).It is found that the vertical earnings persistence of Listed Companies in China is very short,and shows a significant downward trend.The earnings persistence time of state-owned enterprises is longer than that of non-state-owned enterprises,and the downward trend is relatively slower.Furthermore,this paper also finds that the earnings persistence time of the state-owned enterprises supervised by municipal government is longer significantly than that of state-owned enterprises supervised by central government and by provincial government,as well as non-state-owned enterprises.The downward trend of state-owned enterprises supervised by municipal government is gentler.At last,this paper finds that real earnings quality’s decline is the main reason for the decline of earnings.This paper has some inspiration for the supervision of the regulatory authorities,the classification reform of state-owned enterprises and the long-term investment decisions of investors.
作者
雷倩华
黄纯
任柳杨
Lei Qianhua;Huang Chun;Ren Liuyang
出处
《金融学季刊》
2020年第1期67-97,共31页
Quarterly Journal of Finance
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(项目批号:71602059,71572059)
广东省自然科学基金项目(项目批号:2015A030310223,2016A030313482)
教育部人文社科一般项目青年基金(项目批号:15YJC630051)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
盈余持续时间
盈余趋势
产权性质
earnings persistence time
earnings trend
property rights
