摘要
2017年中国开始了新一轮大豆收储制度改革,由此前的目标价格制度改为市场化收购加补贴政策,目标在于探索收储价格市场化形成机制,调动农民生产大豆积极性,同时为主粮收储制度改革提供政策经验。本文利用2012~2018年全国19个具代表性的大豆生产省(区、市)的面板数据,运用双重差分法分析收储制度市场化改革对大豆生产的影响。研究结果表明,政策执行阶段不同,其对大豆生产产生的影响具有一定差异。政策实施过渡期和第一年,政策对生产具有正向影响,其他年份不显著,且政策效果递减。究其原因在于,过渡期大豆对玉米的替代效应促使大豆种植面积扩大;政策实施第一年,农户预期值较高,大豆种植面积和产量均增长显著;而第二年及以后,由于上年的种植收益不甚理想,大豆种植面积仅小幅增长,且同期产量下降,意味着单产下降,这种平均化的补贴方式在某种程度上鼓励了粗放式经营。建议提高科技水平、优化市场化收购加补贴政策,兼顾效率与公平,注意补贴的幅度与弹性,坚持市场调节为主的基本方向。
In 2017,China started a new round of soybean purchase and storage system reform.The former target price system was changed to a market-based purchase and subsidy policy.The goal was to explore the marketbased formation mechanism of purchase and storage prices,mobilize farmers’enthusiasm in soybean production,and provide policy advances.Based on the panel data of 19 typical soybean production provinces in China from 2012 to 2018,this paper analyzed the impact of the marketization reform of the purchase and storage system on soybean production by using the DID method.Statistical results showed that different policy implementation stage had different effects on soybean production.The transition epoch and the first year have a positive influence on production,but the other years are not significant,and the policy effect decreases.The reason lies in the substitution effect of soybean to corn during the transition period,which promotes the expansion of soybean planting area.In the first year,the expect was higher,and the soybean planting area and yield increased largely.However,in the second year and thereafter,because of the low planting income of the previous year,the soybean planting area only increased limited,and the output decreased at the same time,which meant the yield per unit area decreased.Such average subsidy mode encouraged extensive operation to some extent.It is suggested to improve the level of science and technology,optimize the market-based acquisition and subsidy policies,considerate the efficiency and equity,government should emphasize the range and flexibility of subsidies,and adhere to the basic direction of market regulation.
作者
吕文慧
叶林祥
曹晨
Lv Wen-hui;Ye Lin-xiang;Cao Chen(Center for Food Security and Strategic Studies,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing,210003,China;School of Economics,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing,210003,China)
出处
《粮食经济研究》
2021年第2期25-38,共14页
Food Economics Research
关键词
收储制度改革
双重差分法
市场化收购加补贴政策
Reform of Purchasing and Storing System
Double Difference Method
Market-oriented Purchase Plus Subsidy Policy
