摘要
本文以国际碳减排为背景,分析中国粮食贸易现状。基于1996~2019年中国粮食贸易数据,首先利用中国贸易数据计算中国粮食贸易比较优势指数,然后构建随机前沿引力模型,测算中国粮食贸易效率,并对其影响因素进行分析。此外,本文测算了2019年中国粮食贸易潜力,为粮食贸易进一步发展提供方向。研究表明:中国粮食贸易比较优势指数较低且呈下降趋势;研究期间中国粮食贸易效率均值也呈下降趋势;在粮食贸易影响因素中,贸易伙伴国经济规模、中国人口和伙伴国人口、共同语言、制度距离、贸易自由度和金融自由度有效促进了粮食贸易发展,而中国的经济规模、中国和贸易伙伴国的碳排放量都显著阻碍了粮食贸易发展。因此,中国应大力推进碳减排措施、加强贸易合作、促进政策互通、提高贸易自由度和金融自由度,实现粮食贸易效率水平的提升。
This paper analyzes the current situation of grain trade in China in the context of the international carbon emission reduction.Based on China's grain trade data from 1996 to 2019,this paper firstly uses China's grain trade data to caleulate the comparative advantage index of China's grain trade,then builds a stochastic frontier gravity model to measure China's grain trade efficiency,and analyzes its influencing factors.In addition,this paper estimates the potential of China's grain trade in 2019 to provide direction for further development of grain trade.The results showed that the comparative advantage index of China's grain trade was low and showed a downward trend.The mean value of grain trade efficiency also showed a downward ltrend during the study period.Among the infuencing factors,economic scale of trading partner countries,population of China and partner countries,common language,institutional distance,trade freedom and financial freedom significantly promoted the effective development of grain trade,while China's economic scale,carbon emissions of China and trade partner countries significantly hindered the development of grain trade.Therefore,China should vigorously promote carbon reduction measures,strengthen trade cooperation,promote policy interoperabilty,improve trade and financial freedom,so as to improve the efficiency of grain trade.
作者
张钟方
侯立军
ZHANG Zhongfang;HOU Lijun(School of Food and Materials,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing Jiangsu,210003,China;College of Business and Administration,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing Jiangsu,210003,China)
出处
《粮食经济研究》
2023年第2期77-91,共15页
Food Economics Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(17YJAZH031)
江苏省研究生科研创新计划(KYCX21-1444)
南京财经大学服务国家特殊需求博士人才科研专项项目(BSZX2021-01)
关键词
碳减排
比较优势指数
随机前沿引力模型
粮食贸易
Carbon Emission Reduction
Comparative Advantage Index
Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model
Grain Trade
