摘要
汇聚日菲军事资源,打造三边安全框架,是美国在亚太广泛组织“小多边”阵营、落实对华“一体化威慑”的最新举措,也是美国实现霸权护持、布局大国竞争、干预区域秩序的关键工具。从2022年下半年开始,三国构建制度化安全合作的意向逐渐萌发,至2023年上半年已获相关政府层面的明确肯定与积极支持。三国正从海上联合执法演训起步,逐步积累合作业绩。美国重塑“岛链遏制”的地缘战略冲动是美日菲三边安全机制形成的最主要动能。日本的政治与军事野心、三国历史上紧密而成熟的防务纽带、台海局势、菲方政府换届与政策调整等因素则提供了相应的助推力、凝聚力与行动机会。由于该机制尚处发展初期,故其前景亦存在多种可能性。为防范应对该机制可能产生的负面影响,我方需继续密切观察,组织跟踪研究。
The pooling of Japanese and Filipino military resources to create a trilateral security framework is the latest move by the United States to organize a wide range of“mini-multilateral”groupings in the Asia-Pacific region.It is one part of the strategy to implement“integrated deterrence”against China.It is also a key tool for the United States to maintain hegemonic position,to pursue major power competition and to intervene in the regional order.Starting in the second half of 2022,the attempts towards institutionalized trilateral security cooperation gradually took shape.And by the first half of 2023,they have received the explicit recognition and active support from the three governments.Currently,the three parties are gradually accumulating cooperation experiences by starting joint maritime law enforcement exercises.The US geostrategic impulse to reshape the“island chain containment”strategy is the main reason for the formation of the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral security mechanism.Meanwhile,Japan’s political and military ambitions,the historically close and well-established defense ties between the three countries,the new round of tensions in the Taiwan Strait,and the change of government and policy adjustments in the Philippines also provide the necessary impetus,cohesion and opportunities.As the mechanism is now at an early stage of development,there are still many uncertainties.In order to swiftly and efficiently manage the possible negative impacts of this mechanism,China needs to closely observe the relevant trends and organize follow-up studies.
出处
《思想理论战线》
CSSCI
2023年第4期76-87,141,共13页
Front of Thought and Theory
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“日本‘非对称制华’海上战略研究”(20YJCGJW001)
关键词
小多边主义
三边安全机制
岛链遏制战略
美日菲
Minilateralism
Triateral security mechanism
island chain containment strategy
JAPHUS
