摘要
新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情正在全球快速传播,中国是早期受新型冠状病毒肺炎威胁最严重的地区。根据广州市卫健委发布的1月22日至2月24日间的COVID-19流行病例数据,通过建立空间回归模型探究早期确诊病例聚集与公共空间的关系,并采用地理信息的空间分析方法,揭示广州市COVID-19在采取隔离防控前后的空间扩散特征。结果表明,广州市新冠疫情早期确诊病例在时间变化上差异明显,整体上可分为高位波动状态与低位稳定状态;截止2月2日,广州主城区累计确诊病例数占全市总病例数的68.8%,COVID-19早期以输入性病例为主并形成多核心聚集分布,呈现出从中心向外围扩散的趋势,且每日新增病例质心具有交叉向外扩散的特点;通过空间滞后模型分析表明,隔离前的确诊病例与地铁线路和医院分布有显著空间相关关系,并在空间扩散方向上具有明显的疫情溢出效应;在此基础上联合多因子进行空间扩散风险制图,2月6日以后新增扩散病例分布在不同风险区,未形成新的聚集与扩散方向。与2003年SARS疫情的空间扩散对比,说明了防控措施采取的有效性,为疫情的空间防控成效提供了进一步的参考依据。
Novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)is spreading rapidly worldwide.China is of the most threatened area of COVID-19 in the early stage.Based on the epidemiological survey data of COVID-19 published by Guangzhou Health Committee from January 22 to February 24,the spatial regression model of public space factors was constructed to discovery the spatial and temporal spreading characteristics of COVID-19 before and after the in Guangzhou.The results showed that the cumulative number of epidemics until February 2 in the core city area of Guangzhou accounted for 68.8%of the total number.COVID-19 in the early stage is dominated by the imported epidemics and forms multicore aggregation.The direction of spatial spreading is described by the centroid of new cases every day,which has the characteristics of cross outward.The spatial lag model analysis shows that the early confirmed cases have obvious epidemic spillover effect in the direction of spatial diffusion,and have significant spatial correlation with the distribution of metro lines and hospitals.On this basis,combined with multiple factors,the spatial spreading risk mapping of 1 km buffer zone was carried out.After February 6,the new cases were distributed within the different risk mapping,without obvious aggregation and spreading direction.Discussion with SARS,the effectiveness of isolation measures was illustrated,which provided the reference for further spatial prevention and control of epidemic.
作者
黄晓慧
付迎春
张君怡
杨骥
洪建智
HUANG Xiaohui;FU Yingchun;ZHANG JunYi;YANG Ji;HONG Jianzhi(School of Geography,South China Normal University,Guangdong Provincial Center for Smart Land Research,Guangzhou 510631,China;Guangzhou Institute of Geography,Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application,Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System,Guangzhou 510070,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory,Guangzhou 511458,China)
出处
《热带地貌》
2020年第2期8-17,共10页
Tropical Geomorphology
基金
武汉大学测绘遥感国家重点实验室珞珈一号夜光遥感卫星特别开放项目资助(TP1805)
关键词
新型冠状病毒肺炎
空间滞后
公共空间
扩散风险
疫情防控
novel coronavirus pneumonia
spatial lag model
public space
spreading risk
epidemic prevention and control
