摘要
本研究将农业信贷担保机构和新型农业经营主体置于“委托—代理”理论的分析框架内,理论阐述了新型农业经营主体管理者的道德风险产生原因:新型农业经营主体为了提高外部融资的可获性,可能隐藏或提供虚假信息;新型农业经营主体管理者可能顾忌自身“声誉”而不会发生将贷款占为己有的行为,但在实践中,情况并不总是如此。同时,以L省农业信贷担保体系510户不同类型新型农业经营主体产生的真实数据为例,引入新型农业经营主体管理者道德风险这一影响因素指标,建立Logistic-ISM模型解析农业信贷担保风险各影响因素之间的关联关系和层次结构。结果表明:第一,管理者道德风险对农业信贷担保风险产生直接影响。第二,不同类型新型农业经营主体管理者违约风险的影响因素具有层次性和关联性。第三,不同类型新型农业经营主体信贷担保风险的影响因素不同,对同一影响因素的敏感度有所差异。对此,可采用引入管理者道德风险指标,以降低农业信贷担保风险;健全农业信贷风险管理策略,以服务新型农业经营主体为本;完善农业信用环境,建立科学风险防范机制等对策。
This paper sets agricultural credit guarantee institutions and new agricultural business entities under the analysis framework of"principal-agent"theory,to expound why the managers of new agricultural business entities could produce the moral risk.Two reasons are included:some new agricultural business entities provided false information or hidden useful information to increase possibility for external financing;some took loans as his own regardless of reputation damage.This paper further takes the real data produced by 510different types of new agricultural business entities from L province agricultural credit guarantee system as sample,introduces the moral risk of new agricultural business entities as an influence factor index,and sets a Logistic-ISM model,to analyze the correlation and hierarchy of the influence factors of agricultural credit guarantee risk.The results indicate that the moral hazard of the managers exhibits a direct impact on the risk of agricultural credit guarantee.The influence factors of the default risk caused by different types of new agricultural business entities are hierarchical and relevant.The influence factors of credit guarantee risk depend on the different types of new agricultural business entities,even the sensitivenesses against the same influence factor are diverse.Finally,three countermeasures are put forward:(1)introducing the moral hazard index for the manager of new agricultural business entity to lower the agricultural credit guarantee risk;(2)improving the management strategy of the agricultural credit guarantee risk to serve the subject of the new agricultural business entity;(3)improving the agricultural credit environment to build the risk prevention mechanism.
作者
张超
王振宇
ZHANG Chao;WANG Zhen-yu(College of Economics and Management,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 11016,Liaoning Province,China;College of Local Finance,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110136,Liaoning Province,China)
出处
《沈阳农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第6期652-659,共8页
Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家高层次人才特殊支持计划资助项目“我国地方财政可持续发展研究”(20161001)
辽宁省财政科研基金一般项目“完善辽宁农业信贷担保体系相关政策研究”(19C010)
