摘要
对我国官方GDP统计数据质量的质疑,一直是理解中国经济动态的一个长期问题。文章基于我国省域经济指标和卫星记录的夜间灯光指标,运用Pinkovskiy等模型测算了我国省域真实收入水平的最优权重,并据此计算我国省域经济增长率,发现我国省域经济增速大部分低于官方公布的增速,只有少数地区高于官方公布的增速,而全国的预测结果与官方公布的统计数据基本吻合。这表明官方统计值和真实收入增长率的测算结果虽然存在差异,但绝不是外界所质疑的有较大差距,除统计技术因素外,省域国民经济核算可能受到地方政府"晋升锦标赛"的影响而呈现出高估统计数据的倾向。
Doubts about the quality of China’s official GDP statistical data have always been a long-term problem in understanding the dynamics of China’s economy. Based on China’s provincial economic indexes and the night light indexes recorded by satellite, this paper employs the Pinkovskiy model and others to measure the optimal weight of China’s provincial real income level, according to which to calculate China’s provincial economic growth rate, finding that most of China’s provincial economic growth rate is lower than the official growth rate, only a few areas higher than the official growth rate, while the national forecast results are basically consistent with the official statistical data. This suggests that the difference between the official statistics and the estimates of real income growth is by no means as large as has been suspected, although there is a certain gap between the two.Apart from the factors of statistical technology, the provincial national accounting may be affected by the "promotion tournament" of the local government and present a tendency to overestimate the statistical data.
作者
胡兰丽
刘洪
Hu Lanli;Liu Hong(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Huanghuai University,Zhumadian Henan 463000,China)
出处
《统计与决策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第7期5-9,共5页
Statistics & Decision
