This study simulates the effective radiative forcing （ERF） of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol-climate coupled model, BCC_AGCM2.0. I_CUACE/Aero, in combination ...This study simulates the effective radiative forcing （ERF） of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol-climate coupled model, BCC_AGCM2.0. I_CUACE/Aero, in combination with OMI （Ozone Monitoring Instrument） satellite ozone data. According to the OMI observations, the global annual mean tropospheric col- umn ozone （TCO） was 33.9 DU in 2013, and the largest TCO was distributed in the belts between 30°N and 45°N and at approximately 30°S; the annual mean TCO was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere; and in boreal summer and autumn, the global mean TCO was higher than in winter and spring. The simulated ERF due to the change in tropospheric ozone concentration from 1850 to 2013 was 0.46 W m-2, thereby causing an increase in the global annual mean surface temperature by 0.36°C, and precipitation by 0.02 mm d-1 （the increase of surface temperature had a significance level above 95%）. The surface temperature was increased more obviously over the high latitudes in both hemispheres, with the maximum exceeding 1.4°C in Siberia. There were opposite changes in precipitation near the equator, with an increase of 0.5 mm d- 1 near the Hawaiian Islands and a decrease of about -0.6 mm d- 1 near the middle of the Indian Ocean.展开更多
An atmospheric general circulation model BCC_AGCM2.0 and observation data from ARIS were used to calculate the effective radiative forcing（ERF） due to increased methane concentration since pre-industrial times and i...An atmospheric general circulation model BCC_AGCM2.0 and observation data from ARIS were used to calculate the effective radiative forcing（ERF） due to increased methane concentration since pre-industrial times and its impacts on climate. The ERF of methane from 1750 to2011 was 0.46 W m^-2 by taking it as a well-mixed greenhouse gas, and the inhomogeneity of methane increased its ERF by about 0.02 W m^-2.The change of methane concentration since pre-industrial led to an increase of 0.31 ℃ in global mean surface air temperature and 0.02 mm d 1in global mean precipitation. The warming was prominent over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere（with a maximum increase exceeding 1.4℃）. The precipitation notably increased（maximum increase of 1.8 mm d^-1） over the ocean between 10°N and 20° N and significantly decreased（maximum decrease 〉-0.6 mm d^-1） between 10° S and 10° N. These changes caused a northward movement of precipitation cell in the Intertropical Convergence Zone（ITCZ）. Cloud cover significantly increased（by approximately 4%） in the high latitudes in both hemispheres, and sharply decreased（by approximately 3%） in tropical areas.展开更多
Recent progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and related predictability of weather and climate in China （2007-2011） are briefly introduced in this article. Major achievements in the study of nonli...Recent progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and related predictability of weather and climate in China （2007-2011） are briefly introduced in this article. Major achievements in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics have been classified into two types： （1） progress based on the analysis of solutions of simplified control equations, such as the dynamics of NAO, the optimal precursors for blocking onset, and the behavior of nonlinear waves, and （2） progress based on data analyses, such as the nonlinear analyses of fluctuations and recording-breaking temperature events, the long-range correlation of extreme events, and new methods of detecting abrupt dynamical change. Major achievements in the study of predictability include the following： （1） the application of nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents （NLLE） to weather and climate predictability; （2） the application of condition nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） to the studies of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） predictions, ensemble forecasting, targeted observation, and sensitivity analysis of the ecosystem; and （3） new strategies proposed for predictability studies. The results of these studies have provided greater understanding of the dynamics and nonlinear mecha- nisms of atmospheric motion, and they represent new ideas for developing numerical models and improving the forecast skill of weather and climate events.展开更多
This study reviewed the status of PM2.5 and tropospheric O3 observations in China(15e55N, 72e136E). Initially, the distribution of tropospheric O3 over the globe and China was determined based on satellite observation...This study reviewed the status of PM2.5 and tropospheric O3 observations in China(15e55N, 72e136E). Initially, the distribution of tropospheric O3 over the globe and China was determined based on satellite observations made during 2010e2013. The annual mean values were 29.78 DU and 33.97 DU over the globe and China, respectively. The distribution of PM2.5 and seasonal changes in concentrations in China were then simulated using an aerosol chemistry e climate coupled model system, with an annual mean value of 0.51×10-8kg mà3. The contributions from five different aerosols to the simulated PM2.5 concentrations in different seasons were also determined. The relationships among the emissions of aerosols, greenhouse gases and their precursors and radiative forcings were determined with reference to the(IPCC AR5) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the Fifth Assessment Report. From these relationships, the possible effects of controlling O3 precursors and(PM) particulate matter on the climate were considered. The influence of the control of O3 precursors was not totally clear, and reducing emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases and black carbon was considered a secondary measure for short-term(the next 50years) climate-change mitigation. Reducing emissions of CO2 is still the best strategy for meeting the target of a global average rise in surface air temperature of less than 2C. Near- and short-term emission reduction strategies are important for both effective environmental protection and climate-change mitigation.展开更多
Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have ...Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains （above 25mm/day） in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving t test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978-1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country＇s average.展开更多
Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya （Tibetan plateau） ice core （GIC） 5180, and three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENS...Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya （Tibetan plateau） ice core （GIC） 5180, and three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） signals, are decomposed into two hierarchies, i.e. more and less than 10-year hierarchies respectively, and then the running t-test is used to reanalyse the data before and after filtering with the purpose of investigating the contribution of natural factors to the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. The results show that the GIC 5180 evolved with a quasi-period of 7-9 years, and the abrupt climate changes in the early 1960s and in the period from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s resulted from the joint effect of the two hierarchies, in other words, the two interdecadal abrupt changes of climate in the last one hundred years were global. The interannual variations of ENSO and sunspots were the important triggering factors for the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. At the same time, the method of Information Transfer （IT） is employed to estimate the contributions of ENSO signals and sunspots activities to the abrupt climate changes, and it is found that the contribution of the interannual variation of ENSO signals is relatively large.展开更多
Recent advances in the study of nonlinear atmospheric and climate dynamics in China （2003 2006） are briefly reviewed. Major achievements in the following eight areas are covered： nonlinear error dynamics and predic...Recent advances in the study of nonlinear atmospheric and climate dynamics in China （2003 2006） are briefly reviewed. Major achievements in the following eight areas are covered： nonlinear error dynamics and predictability; nonlinear analysis of observational data; eddy-forced envelope Rossby soliton theory; sensitivity and stability of the ocean＇s thermohaline circulation; nonlinear wave dynamics; nonlinear analysis on fluctuations in the atmospheric boundary layer; the basic structures of atmospheric motions; some applications of variational methods.展开更多
In this study,the decomposed fast and slow responses of clouds to an abruptly quadrupled CO_(2)concentration(approximately 1139 ppmv)in East Asia(EA)are obtained quantitatively by using a general circulation model,BCC...In this study,the decomposed fast and slow responses of clouds to an abruptly quadrupled CO_(2)concentration(approximately 1139 ppmv)in East Asia(EA)are obtained quantitatively by using a general circulation model,BCC–AGCM2.0.Our results show that in the total response,the total cloud cover(TCC),low cloud cover(LCC),and high cloud cover(HCC)all increased north of 40°N and decreased south of 40°N except in the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The mean changes of the TCC,LCC,and HCC in EA were–0.74%,0.38%,and–0.38%in the total response,respectively;1.05%,–0.03%,and 1.63%in the fast response,respectively;and–1.79%,0.41%,and–2.01%in the slow response,respectively.By comparison,we found that changes in cloud cover were dominated by the slow response in most areas in EA due to the changes in atmospheric temperature,circulation,and water vapor supply together.Overall,the changes in the cloud forcing over EA related to the fast and slow responses were opposite to each other,and the final cloud forcing was dominated by the slow response.The mean net cloud forcing(NCF)in the total response over EA was–1.80 W m^(–2),indicating a cooling effect which partially offset the warming effect caused by the quadrupled CO_(2).The total responses of NCF in the TP,south China(SC),and northeast China(NE)were–6.74 W m^(–2),6.11 W m^(–2),and–7.49 W m^(–2),respectively.Thus,the local effects of offsetting or amplifying warming were particularly obvious.展开更多
The projections of climate changes in China for the 21st century by about 40climate scenarios and multi-model ensembles have been investigated in this research. All the modelswith the different scenarios project a war...The projections of climate changes in China for the 21st century by about 40climate scenarios and multi-model ensembles have been investigated in this research. All the modelswith the different scenarios project a warming of 1.2℃ to 9.2℃ in China by the end of 21stcentury. Most of the projections point show the increasing of precipitation in China for the 21stcentury.展开更多
Attributions of floods/cooler along the Yangtze River Valley anddroughts/warmer in North China for the last 25 years have been reviewed in this paper. Both naturalclimate variability and human activities are considere...Attributions of floods/cooler along the Yangtze River Valley anddroughts/warmer in North China for the last 25 years have been reviewed in this paper. Both naturalclimate variability and human activities are considered. Some stronger evidences contributed to thenatural climate variability, such as decadal and interdecadal variabilities of East Asian summermonsoon, the periodicities and transitions of rainfall and temperature changes in China, abruptclimate change, NAO, AO, AAO, ENSO, and snow cover. The signals produced by the human activitiessuch as greenhouse gases and 'brown clouds' likely play the role for the patterns. But the physicalfeedbacks and mechanisms still keep ambiguous and vague. More researches should be carried out infuture to solve this issue.展开更多
Extreme sensitivity to initial values is an intrinsic character of chaotic systems. The evolution of a chaotic system has a spatiotemporal structure containing quasi-periodic changes of different spatiotemporal scales...Extreme sensitivity to initial values is an intrinsic character of chaotic systems. The evolution of a chaotic system has a spatiotemporal structure containing quasi-periodic changes of different spatiotemporal scales. This paper uses an empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method to decompose and compare the evolution of the time-dependent evolutions of the x-component of the Lorenz system. The results indicate that the sensitivity of intrinsic mode function （IMF） component is dependent on initial values, which provides some scientific evidence for the possibility of long-range climatic prediction.展开更多
Research on quantitative models of suspended sediment concentration （SSC） using remote sensing technology is very important to understand the scouting and siltation variation in harbors and water channels. Based onl...Research on quantitative models of suspended sediment concentration （SSC） using remote sensing technology is very important to understand the scouting and siltation variation in harbors and water channels. Based onlaboratory study of the relationship between different suspended sediment concentrations and reflectance spectra measured synchronously, quantitative inversion models of SSC based on single factor, band ratio and sediment parameter were developed, which provides an effective method to retrieve the SSC from satellite images. Results show that the bl （430-500nm） and b3 （670-735nm） are the optimal wavelengths for the estimation of lower SSC and the b4 （780-835nm） is the optimal wavelength to estimate the higher SSC. Furthermore the band ratio B2/B3 can be used to simulate the variation of lower SSC better and the B4/B1 to estimate the higher SSC accurately. Also the inversion models developed by sediment parameters of higher and lower SSCs can get a relatively higher accuracy than the single factor and band ratio models.展开更多
The crop model World Food Studies (WOFOST) was tuned and validated withmeteorological as well as winter wheat growth and yield data at 24 stations in 5 provinces of NorthChina from 1997 to 2003. The parameterization o...The crop model World Food Studies (WOFOST) was tuned and validated withmeteorological as well as winter wheat growth and yield data at 24 stations in 5 provinces of NorthChina from 1997 to 2003. The parameterization obtained by the tuning was then used to model theimpacts of climate change on winter wheat growth for all stations using long-term weather data from1950 to 2000. Two simulations were made, one with all meteorological data (rainfed) and the otherwithout water stress (potential). The results indicate that the flowering and maturity datesoccurred 3.3 and 3 days earlier in the 1990s than that in the 1960s due to a 0.65℃ temperatureincrease. The simulated rainfed yields show that the average drought induced yields (potential minusrainfed yields) have decreased by 9.7% over the last 50 years. This is to be compared with a 0.02%decrease in yield if the precipitation limit is lifted. Although the precipitation during thegrowing season has decreased over the last 50 years, the drought effects on the rainfed yieldsremained to be practically unchanged as the spring precipitation did not decrease markedly.展开更多
A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 ...A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 （Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model）, developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）. In order to validate the model, the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980s for the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold （1950 1976） and warm （1977-2000） periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations （significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level）. The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China＇s Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario. The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5~C relative to climate mean （1960-1990）. Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.展开更多
The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAPT63 model with the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The resultspointed out a global warming of 3.6℃/100 yr and...The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAPT63 model with the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The resultspointed out a global warming of 3.6℃/100 yr and 2.5℃/100 yr for A2 and A1B during the 21stcentury, respectively. The warming in high and middle latitudes will be more obvious than that inlow latitudes, especially in the winter hemisphere. The warming of 5.1℃/100 yr for A2 and 3.6℃/100 yr for A1B over East Asia in the 21st century will be much higher than that in the globe. Theglobal mean precipitation will increase by about 4.3%/100 yr for A2 and 3.4%/100 yr for A1B in the21st century, respectively. The precipitation will increase in most parts of the low and highlatitudes and decrease in some regions of the subtropical latitudes. The linear trends of the annualmean precipitation anomalies over East Asia will be 9.8%/100 yr for A2 and 5.2%/100 yr for A1B,respectively. The drier situations will occur over the northwestern and southeastern parts of EastAsia. The changes of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the globe for the 21st centuryby the NCC/IAP T63 model with SRES A2 and A1B scenarios are in agreement with a number of the modelprojections.展开更多
Using the NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data from 1 December 2004 to 28 February 2005, the isentropic potential vorticity （IPV） analysis of a strong cold wave from 22 December 2004 to 1 January 2005 was made. It is fou...Using the NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data from 1 December 2004 to 28 February 2005, the isentropic potential vorticity （IPV） analysis of a strong cold wave from 22 December 2004 to 1 January 2005 was made. It is found that the strong cold air of the cold wave originated from the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere of the high latitude in the Eurasian continent and the Arctic area. Before the outbreak of the cold wave, the strong cold air of high PV propagated down to the south of Lake Baikal, and was cut off by a low PV air of low latitude origin, forming a dipole-type circulation pattern with the low PV center （blocking high） in the northern Eurasian continent and the high PV one （low vortex） in the southern part. Along with decaying of the low PV center, the high PV center （strong cold air） moved towards the southeast along the northern flank of the Tibetan Plateau. When it arrived in East China, the air column of high PV rapidly stretched downward, leading to increase in its cyclonic vorticity, which made the East Asian major trough to deepen rapidly, and finally induced the outbreak of the cold wave. Further analysis indicates that in the southward and downward propagation process of the high PV center, the air flow west and north of the high PV center on isentropic surface subsided along the isentropic surface, resulting in rapid development of Siberian high, finally leading to the southward outbreak of the strong cold wave.展开更多
The time-dependent solution of reduced air-sea coupling stochastic-dynamicmodel is accurately obtained by using the Fokker-Planck equation and the quantum mechanical method.The analysis of the time-dependent solution ...The time-dependent solution of reduced air-sea coupling stochastic-dynamicmodel is accurately obtained by using the Fokker-Planck equation and the quantum mechanical method.The analysis of the time-dependent solution suggests that when the climate system is in the groundstate, the behavior of the system appears to be a Brownian movement, thus reasoning the foothold ofHasselmann's stochastic climatic model; when the system is in the first excitation state, the motionof the system exhibits a form of time-decaying, or under certain condition a periodic oscillationwith the main period being 2.3 yr. At last, the results are used to discuss the impact of thedoubling of carbon dioxide on climate.展开更多
Using the in-situ precipitation and NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, we foundby studies of change of moisture flux and its effect that the northward water vapor transportrepresented by moisture flux in East China tend...Using the in-situ precipitation and NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, we foundby studies of change of moisture flux and its effect that the northward water vapor transportrepresented by moisture flux in East China tends to retreat southward, and the eastward water vaportransport tends to weaken with weakening of the intensity of moisture flux. The north boundary ofmeridional moisture flux (50 kg m^(-1)s^(-1)) retreats 2.8 degrees in latitude per decade during1968-2003. The weakening of water vapor transport implies the weakening and southward retreat ofEast Asian monsoon, which leads to the tendency of decrease in moisture flux convergence over NorthChina and the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, and the tendency of decrease inprecipitation over those regions, but on the contrary the enhanced water vapor transport convergenceover the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River implies the tendency of increase inprecipitation to some extent. Indeed the long-term variability of precipitation in East China has aclose relation with that of atmospheric moisture flux.展开更多
Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data （Version 1.0） and the observation data of China from January 1951 to February 2007, a new index of East Asian winter monsoon circulation （I EAWM） was defined based on the compar...Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data （Version 1.0） and the observation data of China from January 1951 to February 2007, a new index of East Asian winter monsoon circulation （I EAWM） was defined based on the comparison of previous different winter monsoon indices and circulation factors influencing the winter climate over China. Its relationships with winter temperature over China and large-scale circulation were analyzed. Results show that IEAWM can successfully describe the variation of China＇s mainland winter temperature and the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） system. This index reflects the integrated effect of the circulations over high and low latitudes and the thermal difference between the continent and the ocean. While in the previous studies, most monsoon indices only describe the single monsoon member. The IEAWM is a good indicator of the intensity of the EAWM. Positive values of/EAWM correspond to the strong EAWM, the stronger Siberian high and East Asian trough than normal , and the strengthening of the meridional shear of 500-hPa zonal wind between high and low latitudes over East Asia, and therefore, the southward cold advection becomes stronger and leads to the decrease in surface temperature over China; and vice versa. The IEAWM inter decadal change is obviously positive before the mid-1980s, but negative since the mid-1980s, in good agreement with the fact of the winter warming in China after 1985.展开更多
The Indian Ocean （IO） sea surface temperature （SST） was analyzed by using empirical orthogonal function （EOF）, and the leading mode of Indian Ocean （LMIO） SST was extracted. The major spatial and temporal char...The Indian Ocean （IO） sea surface temperature （SST） was analyzed by using empirical orthogonal function （EOF）, and the leading mode of Indian Ocean （LMIO） SST was extracted. The major spatial and temporal characters of LMIO were discussed, and the relationships between LMIO with Indian summer monsoon （ISM） and with China summer rainfalls （CSR） were investigated, then the impacts of LMIO on Asian summer monsoon （ASM） circulation were explored. Some notable results are obtained： The significant evolutional characters of LMIO are the consistent warming trend of almost the whole IO basin, the distinctive quasi-3- and quasi-ll-yr oscillations and remarkably interdecadal warming in 1976/1977 and 1997/1998, respectively. The LMIO impaired the lower level circulation of ISM and was closely related with the climate trend of CSR. It was associated with the weakening of South Asian high, the easterly winds south of the Tibetan Plateau, and the cross-equatorial flows over 10°-20°N, 40°-110°E at the upper level; with the strengthening of Somali cross-equatorial jet but the weakening of the circulation of ISM in the sector of India, the strengthening of south wind over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and South China but the weakening of southwesterly winds over North China at lower level and with the increasing of surface pressure over the Asian Continent. Changes in the moisture flux transports integrated vertically over the whole troposphere associated with LMIO are similar to those in the lower level circulation. To sum up, the significant SST increasing trend of IO basin was one of the important causes for weakening of the ASM circulation and the southwards shifting of China summer rainband.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41575002)
文摘This study simulates the effective radiative forcing （ERF） of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol-climate coupled model, BCC_AGCM2.0. I_CUACE/Aero, in combination with OMI （Ozone Monitoring Instrument） satellite ozone data. According to the OMI observations, the global annual mean tropospheric col- umn ozone （TCO） was 33.9 DU in 2013, and the largest TCO was distributed in the belts between 30°N and 45°N and at approximately 30°S; the annual mean TCO was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere; and in boreal summer and autumn, the global mean TCO was higher than in winter and spring. The simulated ERF due to the change in tropospheric ozone concentration from 1850 to 2013 was 0.46 W m-2, thereby causing an increase in the global annual mean surface temperature by 0.36°C, and precipitation by 0.02 mm d-1 （the increase of surface temperature had a significance level above 95%）. The surface temperature was increased more obviously over the high latitudes in both hemispheres, with the maximum exceeding 1.4°C in Siberia. There were opposite changes in precipitation near the equator, with an increase of 0.5 mm d- 1 near the Hawaiian Islands and a decrease of about -0.6 mm d- 1 near the middle of the Indian Ocean.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41575002, 91644211)
文摘An atmospheric general circulation model BCC_AGCM2.0 and observation data from ARIS were used to calculate the effective radiative forcing（ERF） due to increased methane concentration since pre-industrial times and its impacts on climate. The ERF of methane from 1750 to2011 was 0.46 W m^-2 by taking it as a well-mixed greenhouse gas, and the inhomogeneity of methane increased its ERF by about 0.02 W m^-2.The change of methane concentration since pre-industrial led to an increase of 0.31 ℃ in global mean surface air temperature and 0.02 mm d 1in global mean precipitation. The warming was prominent over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere（with a maximum increase exceeding 1.4℃）. The precipitation notably increased（maximum increase of 1.8 mm d^-1） over the ocean between 10°N and 20° N and significantly decreased（maximum decrease 〉-0.6 mm d^-1） between 10° S and 10° N. These changes caused a northward movement of precipitation cell in the Intertropical Convergence Zone（ITCZ）. Cloud cover significantly increased（by approximately 4%） in the high latitudes in both hemispheres, and sharply decreased（by approximately 3%） in tropical areas.
基金sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Science (Grant No.KZCX3-SW-230)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955202 and 2010CB950402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41176013 and 41105038)
文摘Recent progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and related predictability of weather and climate in China （2007-2011） are briefly introduced in this article. Major achievements in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics have been classified into two types： （1） progress based on the analysis of solutions of simplified control equations, such as the dynamics of NAO, the optimal precursors for blocking onset, and the behavior of nonlinear waves, and （2） progress based on data analyses, such as the nonlinear analyses of fluctuations and recording-breaking temperature events, the long-range correlation of extreme events, and new methods of detecting abrupt dynamical change. Major achievements in the study of predictability include the following： （1） the application of nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents （NLLE） to weather and climate predictability; （2） the application of condition nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） to the studies of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） predictions, ensemble forecasting, targeted observation, and sensitivity analysis of the ecosystem; and （3） new strategies proposed for predictability studies. The results of these studies have provided greater understanding of the dynamics and nonlinear mecha- nisms of atmospheric motion, and they represent new ideas for developing numerical models and improving the forecast skill of weather and climate events.
基金funded by the National Basic Research Program of China (2011CB403405)
文摘This study reviewed the status of PM2.5 and tropospheric O3 observations in China(15e55N, 72e136E). Initially, the distribution of tropospheric O3 over the globe and China was determined based on satellite observations made during 2010e2013. The annual mean values were 29.78 DU and 33.97 DU over the globe and China, respectively. The distribution of PM2.5 and seasonal changes in concentrations in China were then simulated using an aerosol chemistry e climate coupled model system, with an annual mean value of 0.51×10-8kg mà3. The contributions from five different aerosols to the simulated PM2.5 concentrations in different seasons were also determined. The relationships among the emissions of aerosols, greenhouse gases and their precursors and radiative forcings were determined with reference to the(IPCC AR5) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the Fifth Assessment Report. From these relationships, the possible effects of controlling O3 precursors and(PM) particulate matter on the climate were considered. The influence of the control of O3 precursors was not totally clear, and reducing emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases and black carbon was considered a secondary measure for short-term(the next 50years) climate-change mitigation. Reducing emissions of CO2 is still the best strategy for meeting the target of a global average rise in surface air temperature of less than 2C. Near- and short-term emission reduction strategies are important for both effective environmental protection and climate-change mitigation.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 40675044)the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (Grant No 2006CB400503)the Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration Climate Research Program (Grant No LCS-2006-04)
文摘Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains （above 25mm/day） in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving t test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978-1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country＇s average.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant No 40675044)the State Key Development Program for Basic Research (Grant No 2006CB400503)
文摘Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya （Tibetan plateau） ice core （GIC） 5180, and three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） signals, are decomposed into two hierarchies, i.e. more and less than 10-year hierarchies respectively, and then the running t-test is used to reanalyse the data before and after filtering with the purpose of investigating the contribution of natural factors to the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. The results show that the GIC 5180 evolved with a quasi-period of 7-9 years, and the abrupt climate changes in the early 1960s and in the period from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s resulted from the joint effect of the two hierarchies, in other words, the two interdecadal abrupt changes of climate in the last one hundred years were global. The interannual variations of ENSO and sunspots were the important triggering factors for the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. At the same time, the method of Information Transfer （IT） is employed to estimate the contributions of ENSO signals and sunspots activities to the abrupt climate changes, and it is found that the contribution of the interannual variation of ENSO signals is relatively large.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 40325015 and 40675046）.
文摘Recent advances in the study of nonlinear atmospheric and climate dynamics in China （2003 2006） are briefly reviewed. Major achievements in the following eight areas are covered： nonlinear error dynamics and predictability; nonlinear analysis of observational data; eddy-forced envelope Rossby soliton theory; sensitivity and stability of the ocean＇s thermohaline circulation; nonlinear wave dynamics; nonlinear analysis on fluctuations in the atmospheric boundary layer; the basic structures of atmospheric motions; some applications of variational methods.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFA0603502)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41905081)S&T Development Fund of CAMS(2021KJ004&2022KJ019).
文摘In this study,the decomposed fast and slow responses of clouds to an abruptly quadrupled CO_(2)concentration(approximately 1139 ppmv)in East Asia(EA)are obtained quantitatively by using a general circulation model,BCC–AGCM2.0.Our results show that in the total response,the total cloud cover(TCC),low cloud cover(LCC),and high cloud cover(HCC)all increased north of 40°N and decreased south of 40°N except in the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The mean changes of the TCC,LCC,and HCC in EA were–0.74%,0.38%,and–0.38%in the total response,respectively;1.05%,–0.03%,and 1.63%in the fast response,respectively;and–1.79%,0.41%,and–2.01%in the slow response,respectively.By comparison,we found that changes in cloud cover were dominated by the slow response in most areas in EA due to the changes in atmospheric temperature,circulation,and water vapor supply together.Overall,the changes in the cloud forcing over EA related to the fast and slow responses were opposite to each other,and the final cloud forcing was dominated by the slow response.The mean net cloud forcing(NCF)in the total response over EA was–1.80 W m^(–2),indicating a cooling effect which partially offset the warming effect caused by the quadrupled CO_(2).The total responses of NCF in the TP,south China(SC),and northeast China(NE)were–6.74 W m^(–2),6.11 W m^(–2),and–7.49 W m^(–2),respectively.Thus,the local effects of offsetting or amplifying warming were particularly obvious.
基金This research is supported by the China-IPCC special climate project and LCS projects.
文摘The projections of climate changes in China for the 21st century by about 40climate scenarios and multi-model ensembles have been investigated in this research. All the modelswith the different scenarios project a warming of 1.2℃ to 9.2℃ in China by the end of 21stcentury. Most of the projections point show the increasing of precipitation in China for the 21stcentury.
基金This review was supported by China-IPCC Climate Special Projects and LCS Projects.
文摘Attributions of floods/cooler along the Yangtze River Valley anddroughts/warmer in North China for the last 25 years have been reviewed in this paper. Both naturalclimate variability and human activities are considered. Some stronger evidences contributed to thenatural climate variability, such as decadal and interdecadal variabilities of East Asian summermonsoon, the periodicities and transitions of rainfall and temperature changes in China, abruptclimate change, NAO, AO, AAO, ENSO, and snow cover. The signals produced by the human activitiessuch as greenhouse gases and 'brown clouds' likely play the role for the patterns. But the physicalfeedbacks and mechanisms still keep ambiguous and vague. More researches should be carried out infuture to solve this issue.
文摘Extreme sensitivity to initial values is an intrinsic character of chaotic systems. The evolution of a chaotic system has a spatiotemporal structure containing quasi-periodic changes of different spatiotemporal scales. This paper uses an empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method to decompose and compare the evolution of the time-dependent evolutions of the x-component of the Lorenz system. The results indicate that the sensitivity of intrinsic mode function （IMF） component is dependent on initial values, which provides some scientific evidence for the possibility of long-range climatic prediction.
基金Under the auspices of the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50339010)Huaihe Valley Open Fund Projects(No.Hx2007)
文摘Research on quantitative models of suspended sediment concentration （SSC） using remote sensing technology is very important to understand the scouting and siltation variation in harbors and water channels. Based onlaboratory study of the relationship between different suspended sediment concentrations and reflectance spectra measured synchronously, quantitative inversion models of SSC based on single factor, band ratio and sediment parameter were developed, which provides an effective method to retrieve the SSC from satellite images. Results show that the bl （430-500nm） and b3 （670-735nm） are the optimal wavelengths for the estimation of lower SSC and the b4 （780-835nm） is the optimal wavelength to estimate the higher SSC. Furthermore the band ratio B2/B3 can be used to simulate the variation of lower SSC better and the B4/B1 to estimate the higher SSC accurately. Also the inversion models developed by sediment parameters of higher and lower SSCs can get a relatively higher accuracy than the single factor and band ratio models.
基金The paper is supported by the Open Research Fund of Laboratory for Climate Studies (CCSF-2005-2-QH06).
文摘The crop model World Food Studies (WOFOST) was tuned and validated withmeteorological as well as winter wheat growth and yield data at 24 stations in 5 provinces of NorthChina from 1997 to 2003. The parameterization obtained by the tuning was then used to model theimpacts of climate change on winter wheat growth for all stations using long-term weather data from1950 to 2000. Two simulations were made, one with all meteorological data (rainfed) and the otherwithout water stress (potential). The results indicate that the flowering and maturity datesoccurred 3.3 and 3 days earlier in the 1990s than that in the 1960s due to a 0.65℃ temperatureincrease. The simulated rainfed yields show that the average drought induced yields (potential minusrainfed yields) have decreased by 9.7% over the last 50 years. This is to be compared with a 0.02%decrease in yield if the precipitation limit is lifted. Although the precipitation during thegrowing season has decreased over the last 50 years, the drought effects on the rainfed yieldsremained to be practically unchanged as the spring precipitation did not decrease markedly.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40675038,National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program-2006CB403404)the Chinese Academy of Sciences innovative team of international cooperation partnership projects(the project of climate system model development and application studies).
文摘A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 （Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model）, developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）. In order to validate the model, the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980s for the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold （1950 1976） and warm （1977-2000） periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations （significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level）. The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China＇s Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario. The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5~C relative to climate mean （1960-1990）. Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.
基金This research is supported by the IPCC-China Special Climate Projects and the Laboratory for Climate Studies of ChinaMeteorological Administration.
文摘The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAPT63 model with the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The resultspointed out a global warming of 3.6℃/100 yr and 2.5℃/100 yr for A2 and A1B during the 21stcentury, respectively. The warming in high and middle latitudes will be more obvious than that inlow latitudes, especially in the winter hemisphere. The warming of 5.1℃/100 yr for A2 and 3.6℃/100 yr for A1B over East Asia in the 21st century will be much higher than that in the globe. Theglobal mean precipitation will increase by about 4.3%/100 yr for A2 and 3.4%/100 yr for A1B in the21st century, respectively. The precipitation will increase in most parts of the low and highlatitudes and decrease in some regions of the subtropical latitudes. The linear trends of the annualmean precipitation anomalies over East Asia will be 9.8%/100 yr for A2 and 5.2%/100 yr for A1B,respectively. The drier situations will occur over the northwestern and southeastern parts of EastAsia. The changes of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the globe for the 21st centuryby the NCC/IAP T63 model with SRES A2 and A1B scenarios are in agreement with a number of the modelprojections.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No.2006CB403604.
文摘Using the NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data from 1 December 2004 to 28 February 2005, the isentropic potential vorticity （IPV） analysis of a strong cold wave from 22 December 2004 to 1 January 2005 was made. It is found that the strong cold air of the cold wave originated from the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere of the high latitude in the Eurasian continent and the Arctic area. Before the outbreak of the cold wave, the strong cold air of high PV propagated down to the south of Lake Baikal, and was cut off by a low PV air of low latitude origin, forming a dipole-type circulation pattern with the low PV center （blocking high） in the northern Eurasian continent and the high PV one （low vortex） in the southern part. Along with decaying of the low PV center, the high PV center （strong cold air） moved towards the southeast along the northern flank of the Tibetan Plateau. When it arrived in East China, the air column of high PV rapidly stretched downward, leading to increase in its cyclonic vorticity, which made the East Asian major trough to deepen rapidly, and finally induced the outbreak of the cold wave. Further analysis indicates that in the southward and downward propagation process of the high PV center, the air flow west and north of the high PV center on isentropic surface subsided along the isentropic surface, resulting in rapid development of Siberian high, finally leading to the southward outbreak of the strong cold wave.
基金Project supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40275031 and 40231006 andthe State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China under Grant No. 2006CB400503.
文摘The time-dependent solution of reduced air-sea coupling stochastic-dynamicmodel is accurately obtained by using the Fokker-Planck equation and the quantum mechanical method.The analysis of the time-dependent solution suggests that when the climate system is in the groundstate, the behavior of the system appears to be a Brownian movement, thus reasoning the foothold ofHasselmann's stochastic climatic model; when the system is in the first excitation state, the motionof the system exhibits a form of time-decaying, or under certain condition a periodic oscillationwith the main period being 2.3 yr. At last, the results are used to discuss the impact of thedoubling of carbon dioxide on climate.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40575038.
文摘Using the in-situ precipitation and NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, we foundby studies of change of moisture flux and its effect that the northward water vapor transportrepresented by moisture flux in East China tends to retreat southward, and the eastward water vaportransport tends to weaken with weakening of the intensity of moisture flux. The north boundary ofmeridional moisture flux (50 kg m^(-1)s^(-1)) retreats 2.8 degrees in latitude per decade during1968-2003. The weakening of water vapor transport implies the weakening and southward retreat ofEast Asian monsoon, which leads to the tendency of decrease in moisture flux convergence over NorthChina and the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, and the tendency of decrease inprecipitation over those regions, but on the contrary the enhanced water vapor transport convergenceover the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River implies the tendency of increase inprecipitation to some extent. Indeed the long-term variability of precipitation in East China has aclose relation with that of atmospheric moisture flux.
基金Supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40505014)China Meteorological Administration (CMATG2005M04) and GYHY 200706010.
文摘Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data （Version 1.0） and the observation data of China from January 1951 to February 2007, a new index of East Asian winter monsoon circulation （I EAWM） was defined based on the comparison of previous different winter monsoon indices and circulation factors influencing the winter climate over China. Its relationships with winter temperature over China and large-scale circulation were analyzed. Results show that IEAWM can successfully describe the variation of China＇s mainland winter temperature and the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） system. This index reflects the integrated effect of the circulations over high and low latitudes and the thermal difference between the continent and the ocean. While in the previous studies, most monsoon indices only describe the single monsoon member. The IEAWM is a good indicator of the intensity of the EAWM. Positive values of/EAWM correspond to the strong EAWM, the stronger Siberian high and East Asian trough than normal , and the strengthening of the meridional shear of 500-hPa zonal wind between high and low latitudes over East Asia, and therefore, the southward cold advection becomes stronger and leads to the decrease in surface temperature over China; and vice versa. The IEAWM inter decadal change is obviously positive before the mid-1980s, but negative since the mid-1980s, in good agreement with the fact of the winter warming in China after 1985.
基金the National Basic Key Research Program(973)under Grant Nos.2006CB403604 and 2006CB403606the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40705033
文摘The Indian Ocean （IO） sea surface temperature （SST） was analyzed by using empirical orthogonal function （EOF）, and the leading mode of Indian Ocean （LMIO） SST was extracted. The major spatial and temporal characters of LMIO were discussed, and the relationships between LMIO with Indian summer monsoon （ISM） and with China summer rainfalls （CSR） were investigated, then the impacts of LMIO on Asian summer monsoon （ASM） circulation were explored. Some notable results are obtained： The significant evolutional characters of LMIO are the consistent warming trend of almost the whole IO basin, the distinctive quasi-3- and quasi-ll-yr oscillations and remarkably interdecadal warming in 1976/1977 and 1997/1998, respectively. The LMIO impaired the lower level circulation of ISM and was closely related with the climate trend of CSR. It was associated with the weakening of South Asian high, the easterly winds south of the Tibetan Plateau, and the cross-equatorial flows over 10°-20°N, 40°-110°E at the upper level; with the strengthening of Somali cross-equatorial jet but the weakening of the circulation of ISM in the sector of India, the strengthening of south wind over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and South China but the weakening of southwesterly winds over North China at lower level and with the increasing of surface pressure over the Asian Continent. Changes in the moisture flux transports integrated vertically over the whole troposphere associated with LMIO are similar to those in the lower level circulation. To sum up, the significant SST increasing trend of IO basin was one of the important causes for weakening of the ASM circulation and the southwards shifting of China summer rainband.
