The Trump administration's hostile trade actions against China since the beginning of this year violate World Trade Organization rules. To protect the free trade world economic system, China has stood up to fight ...The Trump administration's hostile trade actions against China since the beginning of this year violate World Trade Organization rules. To protect the free trade world economic system, China has stood up to fight this trade bullying. When the US administration continued with harsher actions, the escalation in trade friction increased the potential harm for both countries. China has been very clear that Trump's trade tariffs cannot improve the bilateral trade imbalance. Tit-for-tat ought to be a last resort but China is open to talking. Now the ball is in Trump's court. As two big,influential economies, China and the US should calm down and go back to negotiating table to avoid a trade war trap. Bullying is only one approach President Trump can choose, but arbitrary threats are no solution.展开更多
This paper studies the current trade war between China and the US from a historical standpoint.By comparing the ongoing trade war with similar trade conflicts in history,we reveal three major causes,with varying degre...This paper studies the current trade war between China and the US from a historical standpoint.By comparing the ongoing trade war with similar trade conflicts in history,we reveal three major causes,with varying degrees of importance,from both economic and political perspectives.The trade war can principally be attributed to trade imbalances,the US midterm elections and rivalry over global economic dominance.As the fundamental conflicts between China and the US cannot be easily resolved,we hold a pessimistic view on the complete settlement of the trade war.In this paper,we perform a scenario analysis,which shows that in the worst-case scenario,China will suffer a 1.1%decrease in employment and a 1%GDP loss,which are not negligible,but manageable for China.展开更多
The current China–US trade war that started in early 2018 has been the largest of this kind in the global market in the past half century,if not longer.Many speculations about the reasons for and progress and potenti...The current China–US trade war that started in early 2018 has been the largest of this kind in the global market in the past half century,if not longer.Many speculations about the reasons for and progress and potential implications of the trade war emerge.Countries must understand the reasons for the war to avoid future trade wars.Predicting what will happen in the near future and the related economic consequences are even more important for people(including businessmen and government policymakers)to prepare for them and make corresponding decisions.However,endeavouring to predict is a tough job.This paper tries to provide an unbiased analysis through the lens of the trade literature.That is,we want to ask how much we can understand the current trade war on the basis of the accumulated knowledge we can obtain from our profession.Related theories include imperfect competition,increasing returns,terms of trade argument,distributional effects and political economy argument.展开更多
Donald Trump’s trade war with China does not make economic sense,but he does not face much domestic opposition to this trade war.Moreover,it is a part of a broader strategy of the nationalistic Americans’attempt to ...Donald Trump’s trade war with China does not make economic sense,but he does not face much domestic opposition to this trade war.Moreover,it is a part of a broader strategy of the nationalistic Americans’attempt to suppress the rise of China.Would China give in to the requests of the US under the threat of the escalation of the trade war?In what way?My conjecture is that China is willing to compromise up to a point.What China is likely to do is to promise to buy more goods and services from the US,allow greater market access for American firms,reduce Chinese subsidies to its industries,reduce forced technology transfers by American firms,strengthen enforcement of intellectual property rights protection and make verification all these commitments more transparent.Although the US might stop escalating the trade war,it is likely that the tariffs already imposed on Chinese goods would not be removed soon.In response to that,China also would not remove most of those tariffs already imposed on imports from the US,in keeping with the spirit of the tit-for-tat policy.It is possible that a temporary ceasefire is agreed,but the trade war can last for a long time.The final assembly stage of many industries might leave China,but not necessarily the whole production process.Hong Kong can be a victim of the trade war if it escalates.展开更多
The looming of a vindictive spirit owing to dishevelled trade relations amidst China and the US seems to be near.Never has it been so apparent than now.The US has had itself as the largest economy on the world stage a...The looming of a vindictive spirit owing to dishevelled trade relations amidst China and the US seems to be near.Never has it been so apparent than now.The US has had itself as the largest economy on the world stage and China’s attempt at shuffling this incumbency has led the US to open a tariff fire on Chinese imports.The tariff brawl appears to be not settling anytime soon as the retaliatory measures are swelling incessantly.Being the two largest economies of the world,giving in for disengaging trade with each other is bound to have a ripple effect on the global system of trade.Where the detesting to barrier-free trade on the part of the US and China are certain to inflict pain upon both countries,it might come as a benefit for other countries.This research explores the movement in global trade springing out of the Sino-US trade war.展开更多
The Trump Administration has presented three major reasons to justify the initiation of a China-US trade war： China＇s large trade surplus against the US, China＇s failure to comply with World Trade Organization （WT...The Trump Administration has presented three major reasons to justify the initiation of a China-US trade war： China＇s large trade surplus against the US, China＇s failure to comply with World Trade Organization （WTO） commitments and China＇s unreasonable acquisition of US technology and theft of intellectual property rights. The fundamental cause of the US trade deficit is its persistent saving deficiency. China has complied with WTO commitments, although there remains significant room for improvement. The case against China for the so-called unfair acquisition of foreign technologies and cyber-enabled intellectual property rights theft is weak at best, although China needs to redouble its effort in protecting intellectual property rights. President Trump＇s trade war will not drive China to abandon its resolve to catch up to the advanced economies. China is ready to fight a war of attrition. Unfortunately, both sides - as well as the rest of the world- will incur heavy losses in the process.展开更多
The existing explanations for President Trump’s decision to trigger a trade war with most of America’s trading partners are not sufficient.The less explored motivation,we argue,is to raise income for the federal gov...The existing explanations for President Trump’s decision to trigger a trade war with most of America’s trading partners are not sufficient.The less explored motivation,we argue,is to raise income for the federal government through tariffs in order to balance the surging fiscal deficit caused by Trump’s bold tax cut policy since December 2017.The repeated increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve throughout 2018 is leading to sharp increase in the cost of servicing America’s US$21 trillion and growing debt,which means that debt servicing would soon become the biggest outlay of the US government.This new explanation implies that the US will need additional sources of income like tariffs in order to balance its budget,and tariffs on Chinese products is viewed as a main source of such income.China should,therefore,rethink its strategy in seeking a resolution for the trade war.展开更多
The China–US trade war during 2018–2019 has attracted attentions from academics,policy makers,businesses and investors around the world.Unlike previous researches which are mainly based on hypothetical scenarios,thi...The China–US trade war during 2018–2019 has attracted attentions from academics,policy makers,businesses and investors around the world.Unlike previous researches which are mainly based on hypothetical scenarios,this study looks at the real effects of the China–US trade war on the Chinese economy.Based on either weekly or monthly data during January 2018–December 2019 including creatively using the Google Trends data to measure the severity of the trade war,this study examines the effects of the China–US trade war on Chinese Renminbi,China–US bilateral trade and stock markets.展开更多
World-renowned investor Jim Rogers has said that he is not in favor of the decision of U.S. President Donald Trump to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, and has appealed to both sides to stop the trade war.
The power and interest of industrial manufacturers are determined by their status in the relations of production.At the international level,countries see their economic and political status rise only when they climb t...The power and interest of industrial manufacturers are determined by their status in the relations of production.At the international level,countries see their economic and political status rise only when they climb the ladder in the international division of labor.As the primary production forces,science and technology are the main drivers behind such change.As new technologies give rise to new industries and restructure the international division of labor,developed countries strive to enhance the protection of their intellectual property rights(IPR)and safeguard their monopoly over core technologies.For developed countries,technological prowess holds the key to their supremacy in the global supply chain and international relations.The 19 th CPC National Congress makes clear the overarching goal in the new era is to rejuvenate the Chinese nation and turn China into a strong modern country.As an important material condition for achieving this goal,China must transition from being medium-and low-end links in the international division of labor to becoming high-end links.In this process,China will encounter backlash from developed countries that lead in the international division of labor.The recent China-US tussle over trade in high-tech goods is a case in point,and should be viewed through the lens of the relations of production and the international division of labor.The insights thus achieved will be of great significance to China’s future development.展开更多
Since he took office, the new US president, Donald Trump, has unveiled his broad economic policy--now called Trumponomics. It emphasizes neoliberalism at home, less government regulations, more growth and weakening th...Since he took office, the new US president, Donald Trump, has unveiled his broad economic policy--now called Trumponomics. It emphasizes neoliberalism at home, less government regulations, more growth and weakening the welfare state. Intemationally, Trumponomics embraces protectionism and nativism with a focus on US economic interests. Trumponomics caters to the lower-middle classes, a reflection of the country＇s current economic and diplomatic challenges. Trumponomics will bring uncertainty to China-US economic and trade relations. China should carefully study the policies of the Trump administration and prepare contingency plans.展开更多
During its rise as a world power, the United States(U.S.) adopted a traditional form of mercantilism, and most US politicians followed a protectionist approach. From the end of the Civil War to the eve of World War I,...During its rise as a world power, the United States(U.S.) adopted a traditional form of mercantilism, and most US politicians followed a protectionist approach. From the end of the Civil War to the eve of World War I, the United States blazed a new trail of industrial development and implemented protective policies such as high tariffs. This historical tradition has had a profound influence on some current US politicians. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States developed a new form of mercantilism, as manifested in the emergence of nontariff barriers instead of tariff barriers to restrict imports and protect domestic industries and employment. Although export regulations have avoided affecting the technology industry, they have led to hefty trade deficits for the United States. National interests have prevailed in U.S. decision-making and have influenced its choices to accede to or walk away from international organizations or treaties. The dollar's hegemony has played a pivotal role in U.S. economic policymaking. These factors have led to the twin deficits in the U.S. economy, i.e. a trade deficit and a fiscal deficit. The real intention of the United States in waging a trade war against China is to maintain and even strengthen the dollar's hegemony and the U.S.' international predominance.展开更多
The 2024 election is a pivotal and highly contested event in the United States.Donald Trump is expected to compete against Joe Biden without any doubts.A potential return of Trump to the White House would likely cause...The 2024 election is a pivotal and highly contested event in the United States.Donald Trump is expected to compete against Joe Biden without any doubts.A potential return of Trump to the White House would likely cause significant reactions in East Asia,particularly among the three major countries in the region.This analysis will explore the detailed implications of Trump’s return.展开更多
文摘The Trump administration's hostile trade actions against China since the beginning of this year violate World Trade Organization rules. To protect the free trade world economic system, China has stood up to fight this trade bullying. When the US administration continued with harsher actions, the escalation in trade friction increased the potential harm for both countries. China has been very clear that Trump's trade tariffs cannot improve the bilateral trade imbalance. Tit-for-tat ought to be a last resort but China is open to talking. Now the ball is in Trump's court. As two big,influential economies, China and the US should calm down and go back to negotiating table to avoid a trade war trap. Bullying is only one approach President Trump can choose, but arbitrary threats are no solution.
文摘This paper studies the current trade war between China and the US from a historical standpoint.By comparing the ongoing trade war with similar trade conflicts in history,we reveal three major causes,with varying degrees of importance,from both economic and political perspectives.The trade war can principally be attributed to trade imbalances,the US midterm elections and rivalry over global economic dominance.As the fundamental conflicts between China and the US cannot be easily resolved,we hold a pessimistic view on the complete settlement of the trade war.In this paper,we perform a scenario analysis,which shows that in the worst-case scenario,China will suffer a 1.1%decrease in employment and a 1%GDP loss,which are not negligible,but manageable for China.
文摘The current China–US trade war that started in early 2018 has been the largest of this kind in the global market in the past half century,if not longer.Many speculations about the reasons for and progress and potential implications of the trade war emerge.Countries must understand the reasons for the war to avoid future trade wars.Predicting what will happen in the near future and the related economic consequences are even more important for people(including businessmen and government policymakers)to prepare for them and make corresponding decisions.However,endeavouring to predict is a tough job.This paper tries to provide an unbiased analysis through the lens of the trade literature.That is,we want to ask how much we can understand the current trade war on the basis of the accumulated knowledge we can obtain from our profession.Related theories include imperfect competition,increasing returns,terms of trade argument,distributional effects and political economy argument.
文摘Donald Trump’s trade war with China does not make economic sense,but he does not face much domestic opposition to this trade war.Moreover,it is a part of a broader strategy of the nationalistic Americans’attempt to suppress the rise of China.Would China give in to the requests of the US under the threat of the escalation of the trade war?In what way?My conjecture is that China is willing to compromise up to a point.What China is likely to do is to promise to buy more goods and services from the US,allow greater market access for American firms,reduce Chinese subsidies to its industries,reduce forced technology transfers by American firms,strengthen enforcement of intellectual property rights protection and make verification all these commitments more transparent.Although the US might stop escalating the trade war,it is likely that the tariffs already imposed on Chinese goods would not be removed soon.In response to that,China also would not remove most of those tariffs already imposed on imports from the US,in keeping with the spirit of the tit-for-tat policy.It is possible that a temporary ceasefire is agreed,but the trade war can last for a long time.The final assembly stage of many industries might leave China,but not necessarily the whole production process.Hong Kong can be a victim of the trade war if it escalates.
文摘The looming of a vindictive spirit owing to dishevelled trade relations amidst China and the US seems to be near.Never has it been so apparent than now.The US has had itself as the largest economy on the world stage and China’s attempt at shuffling this incumbency has led the US to open a tariff fire on Chinese imports.The tariff brawl appears to be not settling anytime soon as the retaliatory measures are swelling incessantly.Being the two largest economies of the world,giving in for disengaging trade with each other is bound to have a ripple effect on the global system of trade.Where the detesting to barrier-free trade on the part of the US and China are certain to inflict pain upon both countries,it might come as a benefit for other countries.This research explores the movement in global trade springing out of the Sino-US trade war.
文摘The Trump Administration has presented three major reasons to justify the initiation of a China-US trade war： China＇s large trade surplus against the US, China＇s failure to comply with World Trade Organization （WTO） commitments and China＇s unreasonable acquisition of US technology and theft of intellectual property rights. The fundamental cause of the US trade deficit is its persistent saving deficiency. China has complied with WTO commitments, although there remains significant room for improvement. The case against China for the so-called unfair acquisition of foreign technologies and cyber-enabled intellectual property rights theft is weak at best, although China needs to redouble its effort in protecting intellectual property rights. President Trump＇s trade war will not drive China to abandon its resolve to catch up to the advanced economies. China is ready to fight a war of attrition. Unfortunately, both sides - as well as the rest of the world- will incur heavy losses in the process.
基金This study was financially supported by the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China.
文摘The existing explanations for President Trump’s decision to trigger a trade war with most of America’s trading partners are not sufficient.The less explored motivation,we argue,is to raise income for the federal government through tariffs in order to balance the surging fiscal deficit caused by Trump’s bold tax cut policy since December 2017.The repeated increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve throughout 2018 is leading to sharp increase in the cost of servicing America’s US$21 trillion and growing debt,which means that debt servicing would soon become the biggest outlay of the US government.This new explanation implies that the US will need additional sources of income like tariffs in order to balance its budget,and tariffs on Chinese products is viewed as a main source of such income.China should,therefore,rethink its strategy in seeking a resolution for the trade war.
文摘The China–US trade war during 2018–2019 has attracted attentions from academics,policy makers,businesses and investors around the world.Unlike previous researches which are mainly based on hypothetical scenarios,this study looks at the real effects of the China–US trade war on the Chinese economy.Based on either weekly or monthly data during January 2018–December 2019 including creatively using the Google Trends data to measure the severity of the trade war,this study examines the effects of the China–US trade war on Chinese Renminbi,China–US bilateral trade and stock markets.
文摘World-renowned investor Jim Rogers has said that he is not in favor of the decision of U.S. President Donald Trump to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, and has appealed to both sides to stop the trade war.
文摘The power and interest of industrial manufacturers are determined by their status in the relations of production.At the international level,countries see their economic and political status rise only when they climb the ladder in the international division of labor.As the primary production forces,science and technology are the main drivers behind such change.As new technologies give rise to new industries and restructure the international division of labor,developed countries strive to enhance the protection of their intellectual property rights(IPR)and safeguard their monopoly over core technologies.For developed countries,technological prowess holds the key to their supremacy in the global supply chain and international relations.The 19 th CPC National Congress makes clear the overarching goal in the new era is to rejuvenate the Chinese nation and turn China into a strong modern country.As an important material condition for achieving this goal,China must transition from being medium-and low-end links in the international division of labor to becoming high-end links.In this process,China will encounter backlash from developed countries that lead in the international division of labor.The recent China-US tussle over trade in high-tech goods is a case in point,and should be viewed through the lens of the relations of production and the international division of labor.The insights thus achieved will be of great significance to China’s future development.
文摘Since he took office, the new US president, Donald Trump, has unveiled his broad economic policy--now called Trumponomics. It emphasizes neoliberalism at home, less government regulations, more growth and weakening the welfare state. Intemationally, Trumponomics embraces protectionism and nativism with a focus on US economic interests. Trumponomics caters to the lower-middle classes, a reflection of the country＇s current economic and diplomatic challenges. Trumponomics will bring uncertainty to China-US economic and trade relations. China should carefully study the policies of the Trump administration and prepare contingency plans.
基金funded by the National Social Sciences Fund (NSSF) project “Study on U.S. Mercantilist Tradition and New Forms of Mercantilism (Approval No. 17BJL021)”
文摘During its rise as a world power, the United States(U.S.) adopted a traditional form of mercantilism, and most US politicians followed a protectionist approach. From the end of the Civil War to the eve of World War I, the United States blazed a new trail of industrial development and implemented protective policies such as high tariffs. This historical tradition has had a profound influence on some current US politicians. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States developed a new form of mercantilism, as manifested in the emergence of nontariff barriers instead of tariff barriers to restrict imports and protect domestic industries and employment. Although export regulations have avoided affecting the technology industry, they have led to hefty trade deficits for the United States. National interests have prevailed in U.S. decision-making and have influenced its choices to accede to or walk away from international organizations or treaties. The dollar's hegemony has played a pivotal role in U.S. economic policymaking. These factors have led to the twin deficits in the U.S. economy, i.e. a trade deficit and a fiscal deficit. The real intention of the United States in waging a trade war against China is to maintain and even strengthen the dollar's hegemony and the U.S.' international predominance.
文摘The 2024 election is a pivotal and highly contested event in the United States.Donald Trump is expected to compete against Joe Biden without any doubts.A potential return of Trump to the White House would likely cause significant reactions in East Asia,particularly among the three major countries in the region.This analysis will explore the detailed implications of Trump’s return.
