It is of great significance to systematically analyze the cultivated land system resilience(CLSR) for the black soil protection and national food security.The CLSR is impacted by planting structure adjustment and cult...It is of great significance to systematically analyze the cultivated land system resilience(CLSR) for the black soil protection and national food security.The CLSR is impacted by planting structure adjustment and cultivated land quality decline,posing major hidden dangers to food security.It is urgent to evaluate the CLSR at multiple spatio-temporal scales.This study took Liaoning Province in the black soil region of Northeast China as an example.Based on the resilience theory,this study constructed the CLSR evaluation system from the input-feedback perspective at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,and used the rank-sum ratio comprehensive evaluation method(RSR) to analyze the key influencing factors of CLSR in Liaoning Province and its 14 cities from 2000 to 2019.The results showed that:1) the time series changes of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale in Liaoning Province were similar,both showing an increasing trend.2) The CLSR in Liaoning Province presented a spatial pattern of ‘high in the west and low in the east’ at the city-scale.3) There were seven and six main influencing factors of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,respectively.In addition to the net income per capita of rural households,other influencing factors of CLSR were different at the provincial-scale and the city-scale.The feedback factors were dominant at the provincial-scale,and the input factors and feedback factors were dominant at the city-scale.The results could provide a reference for the utilization of black soil and draw on the experience of regional agricultural planning and adjustment.展开更多
This paper proposes a co-optimal strategy using line hardening,mobile devices(mobile ice-melting device,mobile emergency generator,mobile energy storage system),and repair crew dispatching to improve distribution syst...This paper proposes a co-optimal strategy using line hardening,mobile devices(mobile ice-melting device,mobile emergency generator,mobile energy storage system),and repair crew dispatching to improve distribution system resilience during ice storms.A multi-stage defender-attacker-defender model is established to take into account interactions and coupling relationships between different measures.In our proposed model,ice storms will attack the distribution and transportation system in a worst-case scenario,affecting system performance from various perspectives.Corresponding to the different operating states in the distribution system affected by ice storms,aiming at minimizing the weighted load shedding value,this paper applies various measures to different stages to improve the response and defense capabilities to ice storms and realize restoration of the distribution system ultimately.The nested column-and-constraint generation algorithm is used to solve the model efficiently.The effectiveness of the proposed model and solution method for enhancing the distribution system resilience is verified on the modified IEEE 33-bus distribution system and modified realworld zone of Caracas 141-bus distribution system.展开更多
Enhancing distribution system resilience is a new challenge for researchers.Supplying distribution loads,especially the residential customers and high-priority loads after disasters,is vital for this purpose.In this p...Enhancing distribution system resilience is a new challenge for researchers.Supplying distribution loads,especially the residential customers and high-priority loads after disasters,is vital for this purpose.In this paper,the internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles are firstly introduced as valuable backup energy sources in the aftermath of disasters and the use of this technology is explained.Then,the improvement of distribution system resilience is investigated through supplying smart residential customers and injecting extra power to the main grid.In this method,it is assumed that the infrastructure of distribution system is partially damaged(common cases)and it can be restored in less than one day.The extra power of residential customer can be delivered to other loads.A novel formulation for increasing the injected power of the smart home to the main grid using ICE vehicles is proposed.Moreover,the maximum backup duration in case of extensive damages in the distribution system is calculated for some commercial ICE vehicles.In this case,the smart home cannot deliver extra energy to the main grid because of its survivability.Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for increasing backup power during power outages.It is also shown that ICE vehicles can supply residential customers for a reasonable amount of time during a power outage.展开更多
The rapid growth of distributed generator(DG)capacities has introduced additional controllable assets to improve the performance of distribution systems in terms of service restoration.Renewable DGs are of particular ...The rapid growth of distributed generator(DG)capacities has introduced additional controllable assets to improve the performance of distribution systems in terms of service restoration.Renewable DGs are of particular interest to utility companies,but the stochastic nature of intermittent renewable DGs could have a negative impact on the electric grid if they are not properly handled.In this study,we investigate distribution system service restoration using DGs as the primary power source,and we develop an effective approach to handle the uncertainty of renewable DGs under extreme conditions.The distribution system service restoration problem can be described as a mixed-integer second-order cone programming model by modifying the radial topology constraints and power flow equations.The uncertainty of renewable DGs will be modeled using a chance-constrained approach.Furthermore,the forecast errors and noises in real-time operation are solved using a novel model-free control algorithm that can automatically track the trajectory of real-time DG output.The proposed service restoration strategy and model-free control algorithm are validated using an IEEE 123-bus test system.展开更多
The goal of this mixed-methods study was to identify and compare the key capacity considerations regarding public health system resilience before and after the 2023 Türkiye-Syria earthquakes.Public health system ...The goal of this mixed-methods study was to identify and compare the key capacity considerations regarding public health system resilience before and after the 2023 Türkiye-Syria earthquakes.Public health system resilience was assessed through online and face-to-face workshops using the United Nations Public Health System Resilience Scorecard.The pre-earthquake evaluation was conducted in Istanbul and Trabzon in 2021;the post-earthquake evaluation took place in Hatay and Kahramanmara?in 2023,with a total of 41 participants each.The online workshops lasted approximately four days,while the face-to-face workshops lasted one day.The study found a significant decrease in the scores for most scorecard resilience indicators in the post-earthquake assessment.Qualitative analysis showed that this decline was largely due to infrastructure collapse.Additionally,defining the roles of health disciplines in disaster management and having data transmission procedures between public health system stakeholders in disasters were among the main capacity considerations in both the pre-and post-earthquake assessments.The post-earthquake evaluation revealed several capacity gaps that had not been addressed in pre-earthquake assessments in areas such as disaster preparedness of vulnerable populations and logistics.The findings highlight the critical importance of strengthening building stock and infrastructure to establish a disaster-resilient public health system.展开更多
Integrated power-gas systems(IPGS)have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems.Moreover,various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable opera...Integrated power-gas systems(IPGS)have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems.Moreover,various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable operation of IPGSs.Due to close interconnectedness through coupling elements between the power system(PS)and natural gas system(NGS)when a disturbance happens in one system,a series of complicated sequences of dependent events may follow in another system.Especially under extreme conditions,this coupling can lead to a dramatic degradation of system performance,resulting in catastrophic failures.Therefore,there is an urgent need to model and evaluate resilience of IPGSs under extreme weather.Following this development trend,an integrated model for resilience evaluation of IPGS is proposed under extreme weather events focusing on windstorms.First,a framework of IPGS is proposed to describe states of the system at different stages under disaster conditions.Furthermore,an evaluation model considering cascading effects is used to quantify the impact of windstorms on NGS and PS.Meanwhile,a Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)technique is utilized to characterize chaotic fault of components.Moreover,time-dependent nodal and system resilience indices for IPGS are proposed to display impacts of windstorms.Numerical results on the IPGS test system demonstrate the proposed methods.展开更多
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the urgent need to strengthen public health systems.In response,the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR) Public Health System Resilience Scorecard(Scorecard) was applied in w...The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the urgent need to strengthen public health systems.In response,the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR) Public Health System Resilience Scorecard(Scorecard) was applied in workshops across multiple countries.The aim of our research was to explore the workshop findings to develop priority strategies for strengthening public health system resilience.We conducted a workshop from 14 to 16 March 2023,at the UNDRR Global Education and Training Institute in Incheon,Republic of Korea.A sequential modified Delphi method was utilized to develop a set of prioritized resilience strategies.These were drawn from 70 strategies identified from 13 distinct workshops in eight countries.After two surveys,23 strategies were finalized.Ten received ratings of "High" or Very High" from89% of participants.These related to the inclusion of public health risks in emergency plans,integrating multidisciplinary teams into public health,enabling local transport mechanisms,and improving the ability to manage an influx of patients.The Scorecard provides an adaptable framework to identify and prioritize strategies for strengthening public health system resilience.By leveraging this methodology,our study demonstrated how resilience strategies could inform disaster risk reduction funding,policies,and actions.展开更多
Enhancing power system resilience against extreme events is becoming increasingly critical. This paper discusses a unified framework for preventive control of power systems to enhance system resilience, which includes...Enhancing power system resilience against extreme events is becoming increasingly critical. This paper discusses a unified framework for preventive control of power systems to enhance system resilience, which includes three parts: resilience assessment, resilience grading, and resilience enhancement. First, the resilience assessment contains facility-level and system-level resilience assessment. The concept of fragility curve is used in the facility-level resilience assessment. Various resilience indices are developed in system-level resilience assessment to roundly depict the impacts of extreme events on power systems and determine the system resilience. On this basis, the resilience is divided into different levels by resilience grading strategy, which can efficiently quantify the severity of the impact of extreme events and provide decision-making for the resilience enhancement strategies. Then, control strategies for enhancing power system resilience are also divided according to different resilience levels. A controlled islanding based preventive control is proposed to enhance system resilience, which aims to strengthen the first defensive line of power systems to deal with extreme events. Finally, taking the typhoon disaster in extreme events as an example, two tests carried out with two typhoons demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.展开更多
Power system resilience procurement costs in N-k contingencies have gained more prominence as number of extreme events continues to increase.A chain rule is presented in this paper for extracting resilience procuremen...Power system resilience procurement costs in N-k contingencies have gained more prominence as number of extreme events continues to increase.A chain rule is presented in this paper for extracting resilience procurement costs from a fully decomposed locational marginal price(LMP)model.First,power transfer distribution factor(PTDF)matrices with AC power flow(i.e.,AC-PTDF)are determined.AC-PTDF and AC-LODF(line outage distribution factor)equations are derived for N-k contingencies and a fully decomposed LMP model is developed where generation and transmission security components are established for specific contingencies.Furthermore,resilience procurement costs can be measured at different buses for the proposed security components.Impact of N-k contingencies on resilience procurement costs at specific buses can be determined as proposed security components will gain more insight for resilience procurement in power systems.The modified IEEE 6-bus and 118-bus systems are adopted to verify effectiveness of the proposed resilience procurement method.展开更多
This review discusses microbial forensics as an emerging science that finds application in protecting human health.It is important to distinguish naturally acquired infections from those caused by the intentional rele...This review discusses microbial forensics as an emerging science that finds application in protecting human health.It is important to distinguish naturally acquired infections from those caused by the intentional release of microorganisms to the environment.This information is crucial in formulating procedures against the spread of infectious diseases and prosecuting persons who may be involved in acts of biocrime,bioterrorism,or biowarfare.A comparison between epidemiological investigations and microbial forensic investigations is provided.In addition,a discussion on how microbial forensics strengthens health systems is included in this review.Microbial forensic investigations and epidemiologic examinations employ similar concepts and involve identifying and characterising the microbe of interest.Both fields require formulating an appropriate case definition,determining a pathogen’s mode of transmission,and identifying the source(s)of infection.However,the two subdisciplines differ in their objectives.An epidemiological investigation aims to identify the pathogen’s source to prevent the spread of the disease.Microbial forensics focuses on source-tracking to facilitate the prosecution of persons responsible for the spread of a pathogen.Both fields use molecular techniques in analysing and comparing DNA,gene products,and biomolecules to identify and characterise the microorganisms of interest.We included case studies to show methods used in microbial forensic investigations,a brief discussion of the public significance of microbial forensic systems,and a roadmap for establishing a system at a national level.This system is expected to strengthen a country’s capacity to respond to public health emergencies.Several factors must be considered in establishing national microbial forensic systems.First is the inherent ubiquity,diversity,and adaptability of microorganisms that warrants the use of robust and accurate molecular typing systems.Second,the availability of facilities and scientists who have been trained in epidemiology,molecular biology,bioinformatics,and data analytics.Human resources and infrastructure are critical requirements because formulating strategies and allocating resources in times of infectious disease outbreaks must be data-driven.Establishing and maintaining a national microbial forensic system to strengthen capacities in conducting forensic and epidemiological investigations should be prioritised by all countries,accompanied by a national policy that sets the legislative framework and provides for the system’s financial requirements.展开更多
In power grids,the frequency is increasing of extreme accidents which have a low probability but high risk such as natural disasters and deliberate attacks.This has sparked discussions on the resilience of power grids...In power grids,the frequency is increasing of extreme accidents which have a low probability but high risk such as natural disasters and deliberate attacks.This has sparked discussions on the resilience of power grids.Energy-storage systems(ESSs)are critical for enhancing the resilience of power grids.ESSs,with their mechanism of flexible charging and discharging,adjust energy usage as needed during disasters,thereby mitigating the impact on the grid and enhancing security and resilience.This,in turn,ensures the power system’s stable operation.Currently,there is limited systematic research quantifying the economic value of energy storage in resilience scenarios.Therefore,a model and methodology were proposed to quantify the value of energy storage systems for enhancing grid resilience during extreme events.A two-stage stochastic optimization mathematical model was developed.The first stage involves pre-deployment based on day-ahead expectations,and the second stage involves simulating potential failure scenarios through real-time scheduling.Considering the temporal dimension,the energy storage systems with flexible regulation capabilities was used as emergency power sources to reduce occurrences of load-shedding.Here,a novel index was proposed that quantifies the resilience value of energy storage as the economic value of energy storage per unit of capacity,as reflected in the emergency dispatch model.This index helps determine the balance between the energy storage investment cost and resilience value.Finally,an IEEE-30 node transmission system was used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.The findings revealed a significant improvement in the resilience value,with a 23.49%increase observed when energy storage systems were implemented compared to the scenario without energy storage systems.The optimal capacity configurations for the flywheel,lithium-ion batteries,and pumped hydro storage were 10 MW,11 MW,and 12 MW,respectively,highlight their potential to maximize value in experimental system.展开更多
Scientifically assessing the economic impact of major public health emergencies,containing their negative effects,and enhancing the resilience of an economy are important national strategic needs.The new coronavirus d...Scientifically assessing the economic impact of major public health emergencies,containing their negative effects,and enhancing the resilience of an economy are important national strategic needs.The new coronavirus disease(COVID-19)has,to date,been effectively contained in China,but the threat of imported cases and local risks still exist.The systematic identification of the virus’s path of influence and intensity is significant for economic recovery.This study is based on a refined multi-regional general equilibrium analysis model,which measures the economic and industrial impacts at different epidemic risk levels in China and simulates development trends and the degree of damage to industries and the economy under changes to supplies of production materials and product demand.The results show that,at the macroeconomic level,China’s GDP will decline about 0.4%to 0.8%compared to normal in 2020,with an average drop of about 2%in short-term consumption,an average drop in employment of about 0.7%,and an average increase in prices of about 0.9%.At the industry level,the epidemic will have the greatest short-term impact on consumer and laborintensive industries.For example,the output value of the service industry will fall 6.3%compared to normal.Looking at the impact of the epidemic on the industrial system,the province most affected by the epidemic is Hubei,which is the only province in China in the level-1 risk category.As the disease spread outward from Hubei,there were clear differences in the main industries that were impacted in different regions.In addition,simulation results of recovery intensity of regional economies under the two epidemic response scenarios of resumption of work and production and active fiscal stimulus policies show that an increase in fiscal stimulus policies produces a 0.3%higher rate of gross regional product growth but it causes commodity prices to rise by about 1.8%.Measures to resume work and production offer a wider scope for industrial recovery.展开更多
Transportation network vulnerability analysis has developed increasingly in the last decade with the goal to identify the most critical locations against incidences.In this domain,many of the previous researches have ...Transportation network vulnerability analysis has developed increasingly in the last decade with the goal to identify the most critical locations against incidences.In this domain,many of the previous researches have focused on congested urban networks;however,there is still a need to consider regional and interurban sparse rail networks,specifically those networks in developing countries.In such sparse rail networks,there are limited possibilities to redirect trains if a link is disrupted,there might be less possibility of finding redundant alternative routes,and network failures are usually accompanied by a phenomenon called‘unsatisfied demand.’The study reported in this paper stemmed from research aimed to design precautionary actions for a developing country’s sparse railway system.Our study framework deemed to find the most vulnerable part of an inter-urban sparse rail network using a network scan approach,which found the consequences of network disruptions.A number of criteria were defined to determine the total cost including unsatisfied demand and additional transportation costs due to disruptions.The results showed that how well the process of the vulnerability analysis,considering the features of both supply and demand sides,can be a guide for railway authorities in applying system safety measures.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42301296)Postdoctoral Research Foundation of China(No.2022M723130)Key Projects of Social Science Planning Fund of Liaoning Province,China(No.L23AGL001)。
文摘It is of great significance to systematically analyze the cultivated land system resilience(CLSR) for the black soil protection and national food security.The CLSR is impacted by planting structure adjustment and cultivated land quality decline,posing major hidden dangers to food security.It is urgent to evaluate the CLSR at multiple spatio-temporal scales.This study took Liaoning Province in the black soil region of Northeast China as an example.Based on the resilience theory,this study constructed the CLSR evaluation system from the input-feedback perspective at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,and used the rank-sum ratio comprehensive evaluation method(RSR) to analyze the key influencing factors of CLSR in Liaoning Province and its 14 cities from 2000 to 2019.The results showed that:1) the time series changes of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale in Liaoning Province were similar,both showing an increasing trend.2) The CLSR in Liaoning Province presented a spatial pattern of ‘high in the west and low in the east’ at the city-scale.3) There were seven and six main influencing factors of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,respectively.In addition to the net income per capita of rural households,other influencing factors of CLSR were different at the provincial-scale and the city-scale.The feedback factors were dominant at the provincial-scale,and the input factors and feedback factors were dominant at the city-scale.The results could provide a reference for the utilization of black soil and draw on the experience of regional agricultural planning and adjustment.
文摘This paper proposes a co-optimal strategy using line hardening,mobile devices(mobile ice-melting device,mobile emergency generator,mobile energy storage system),and repair crew dispatching to improve distribution system resilience during ice storms.A multi-stage defender-attacker-defender model is established to take into account interactions and coupling relationships between different measures.In our proposed model,ice storms will attack the distribution and transportation system in a worst-case scenario,affecting system performance from various perspectives.Corresponding to the different operating states in the distribution system affected by ice storms,aiming at minimizing the weighted load shedding value,this paper applies various measures to different stages to improve the response and defense capabilities to ice storms and realize restoration of the distribution system ultimately.The nested column-and-constraint generation algorithm is used to solve the model efficiently.The effectiveness of the proposed model and solution method for enhancing the distribution system resilience is verified on the modified IEEE 33-bus distribution system and modified realworld zone of Caracas 141-bus distribution system.
文摘Enhancing distribution system resilience is a new challenge for researchers.Supplying distribution loads,especially the residential customers and high-priority loads after disasters,is vital for this purpose.In this paper,the internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles are firstly introduced as valuable backup energy sources in the aftermath of disasters and the use of this technology is explained.Then,the improvement of distribution system resilience is investigated through supplying smart residential customers and injecting extra power to the main grid.In this method,it is assumed that the infrastructure of distribution system is partially damaged(common cases)and it can be restored in less than one day.The extra power of residential customer can be delivered to other loads.A novel formulation for increasing the injected power of the smart home to the main grid using ICE vehicles is proposed.Moreover,the maximum backup duration in case of extensive damages in the distribution system is calculated for some commercial ICE vehicles.In this case,the smart home cannot deliver extra energy to the main grid because of its survivability.Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for increasing backup power during power outages.It is also shown that ICE vehicles can supply residential customers for a reasonable amount of time during a power outage.
基金the National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy,LLC,for the U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)under Contract No.DE-AC36-08GO28308the U.S.Department of Energy Office of Electricity AOP Distribution Grid Resilience Project.The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S.Government.The U.S.Government retains and the publisher,by accepting the article for publication,acknowledges that the U.S.Government retains a nonexclusive,paid-up,irrevocable,worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work,or allow others to do so,for U.S.Government purposes.
文摘The rapid growth of distributed generator(DG)capacities has introduced additional controllable assets to improve the performance of distribution systems in terms of service restoration.Renewable DGs are of particular interest to utility companies,but the stochastic nature of intermittent renewable DGs could have a negative impact on the electric grid if they are not properly handled.In this study,we investigate distribution system service restoration using DGs as the primary power source,and we develop an effective approach to handle the uncertainty of renewable DGs under extreme conditions.The distribution system service restoration problem can be described as a mixed-integer second-order cone programming model by modifying the radial topology constraints and power flow equations.The uncertainty of renewable DGs will be modeled using a chance-constrained approach.Furthermore,the forecast errors and noises in real-time operation are solved using a novel model-free control algorithm that can automatically track the trajectory of real-time DG output.The proposed service restoration strategy and model-free control algorithm are validated using an IEEE 123-bus test system.
基金the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye(TüBITAK 1002-B:123S888)the Japan Science and Technology Agency(JPMJJR2303)for supporting this project。
文摘The goal of this mixed-methods study was to identify and compare the key capacity considerations regarding public health system resilience before and after the 2023 Türkiye-Syria earthquakes.Public health system resilience was assessed through online and face-to-face workshops using the United Nations Public Health System Resilience Scorecard.The pre-earthquake evaluation was conducted in Istanbul and Trabzon in 2021;the post-earthquake evaluation took place in Hatay and Kahramanmara?in 2023,with a total of 41 participants each.The online workshops lasted approximately four days,while the face-to-face workshops lasted one day.The study found a significant decrease in the scores for most scorecard resilience indicators in the post-earthquake assessment.Qualitative analysis showed that this decline was largely due to infrastructure collapse.Additionally,defining the roles of health disciplines in disaster management and having data transmission procedures between public health system stakeholders in disasters were among the main capacity considerations in both the pre-and post-earthquake assessments.The post-earthquake evaluation revealed several capacity gaps that had not been addressed in pre-earthquake assessments in areas such as disaster preparedness of vulnerable populations and logistics.The findings highlight the critical importance of strengthening building stock and infrastructure to establish a disaster-resilient public health system.
基金supported by the Key Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China(51936003)。
文摘Integrated power-gas systems(IPGS)have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems.Moreover,various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable operation of IPGSs.Due to close interconnectedness through coupling elements between the power system(PS)and natural gas system(NGS)when a disturbance happens in one system,a series of complicated sequences of dependent events may follow in another system.Especially under extreme conditions,this coupling can lead to a dramatic degradation of system performance,resulting in catastrophic failures.Therefore,there is an urgent need to model and evaluate resilience of IPGSs under extreme weather.Following this development trend,an integrated model for resilience evaluation of IPGS is proposed under extreme weather events focusing on windstorms.First,a framework of IPGS is proposed to describe states of the system at different stages under disaster conditions.Furthermore,an evaluation model considering cascading effects is used to quantify the impact of windstorms on NGS and PS.Meanwhile,a Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)technique is utilized to characterize chaotic fault of components.Moreover,time-dependent nodal and system resilience indices for IPGS are proposed to display impacts of windstorms.Numerical results on the IPGS test system demonstrate the proposed methods.
基金the World Health Organization Centre for Health Development (WHO Kobe Centre)United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) Global Education and Training Institute+2 种基金the UNDRR Regional office for the Americas and Caribbean for supporting this projectsupported by the World Health Organization Centre for Health Development (WHO Kobe Centre-WKC:K21002)The Scientific and Technological Research Institution of Turkey (TüBITAK) also provided support for the workshops in Turkey
文摘The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the urgent need to strengthen public health systems.In response,the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR) Public Health System Resilience Scorecard(Scorecard) was applied in workshops across multiple countries.The aim of our research was to explore the workshop findings to develop priority strategies for strengthening public health system resilience.We conducted a workshop from 14 to 16 March 2023,at the UNDRR Global Education and Training Institute in Incheon,Republic of Korea.A sequential modified Delphi method was utilized to develop a set of prioritized resilience strategies.These were drawn from 70 strategies identified from 13 distinct workshops in eight countries.After two surveys,23 strategies were finalized.Ten received ratings of "High" or Very High" from89% of participants.These related to the inclusion of public health risks in emergency plans,integrating multidisciplinary teams into public health,enabling local transport mechanisms,and improving the ability to manage an influx of patients.The Scorecard provides an adaptable framework to identify and prioritize strategies for strengthening public health system resilience.By leveraging this methodology,our study demonstrated how resilience strategies could inform disaster risk reduction funding,policies,and actions.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China“Cooperative Control and Protection System and Application of Power System with Renewable Energy Sources"(5100-202199530A-0-5-ZN,5211DS21N013).
文摘Enhancing power system resilience against extreme events is becoming increasingly critical. This paper discusses a unified framework for preventive control of power systems to enhance system resilience, which includes three parts: resilience assessment, resilience grading, and resilience enhancement. First, the resilience assessment contains facility-level and system-level resilience assessment. The concept of fragility curve is used in the facility-level resilience assessment. Various resilience indices are developed in system-level resilience assessment to roundly depict the impacts of extreme events on power systems and determine the system resilience. On this basis, the resilience is divided into different levels by resilience grading strategy, which can efficiently quantify the severity of the impact of extreme events and provide decision-making for the resilience enhancement strategies. Then, control strategies for enhancing power system resilience are also divided according to different resilience levels. A controlled islanding based preventive control is proposed to enhance system resilience, which aims to strengthen the first defensive line of power systems to deal with extreme events. Finally, taking the typhoon disaster in extreme events as an example, two tests carried out with two typhoons demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52007032)Basic Research Program of Jiangsu Province(BK20200385)National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFB2703500).
文摘Power system resilience procurement costs in N-k contingencies have gained more prominence as number of extreme events continues to increase.A chain rule is presented in this paper for extracting resilience procurement costs from a fully decomposed locational marginal price(LMP)model.First,power transfer distribution factor(PTDF)matrices with AC power flow(i.e.,AC-PTDF)are determined.AC-PTDF and AC-LODF(line outage distribution factor)equations are derived for N-k contingencies and a fully decomposed LMP model is developed where generation and transmission security components are established for specific contingencies.Furthermore,resilience procurement costs can be measured at different buses for the proposed security components.Impact of N-k contingencies on resilience procurement costs at specific buses can be determined as proposed security components will gain more insight for resilience procurement in power systems.The modified IEEE 6-bus and 118-bus systems are adopted to verify effectiveness of the proposed resilience procurement method.
文摘This review discusses microbial forensics as an emerging science that finds application in protecting human health.It is important to distinguish naturally acquired infections from those caused by the intentional release of microorganisms to the environment.This information is crucial in formulating procedures against the spread of infectious diseases and prosecuting persons who may be involved in acts of biocrime,bioterrorism,or biowarfare.A comparison between epidemiological investigations and microbial forensic investigations is provided.In addition,a discussion on how microbial forensics strengthens health systems is included in this review.Microbial forensic investigations and epidemiologic examinations employ similar concepts and involve identifying and characterising the microbe of interest.Both fields require formulating an appropriate case definition,determining a pathogen’s mode of transmission,and identifying the source(s)of infection.However,the two subdisciplines differ in their objectives.An epidemiological investigation aims to identify the pathogen’s source to prevent the spread of the disease.Microbial forensics focuses on source-tracking to facilitate the prosecution of persons responsible for the spread of a pathogen.Both fields use molecular techniques in analysing and comparing DNA,gene products,and biomolecules to identify and characterise the microorganisms of interest.We included case studies to show methods used in microbial forensic investigations,a brief discussion of the public significance of microbial forensic systems,and a roadmap for establishing a system at a national level.This system is expected to strengthen a country’s capacity to respond to public health emergencies.Several factors must be considered in establishing national microbial forensic systems.First is the inherent ubiquity,diversity,and adaptability of microorganisms that warrants the use of robust and accurate molecular typing systems.Second,the availability of facilities and scientists who have been trained in epidemiology,molecular biology,bioinformatics,and data analytics.Human resources and infrastructure are critical requirements because formulating strategies and allocating resources in times of infectious disease outbreaks must be data-driven.Establishing and maintaining a national microbial forensic system to strengthen capacities in conducting forensic and epidemiological investigations should be prioritised by all countries,accompanied by a national policy that sets the legislative framework and provides for the system’s financial requirements.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program (No.2022YFB2405600)and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.52277092).
文摘In power grids,the frequency is increasing of extreme accidents which have a low probability but high risk such as natural disasters and deliberate attacks.This has sparked discussions on the resilience of power grids.Energy-storage systems(ESSs)are critical for enhancing the resilience of power grids.ESSs,with their mechanism of flexible charging and discharging,adjust energy usage as needed during disasters,thereby mitigating the impact on the grid and enhancing security and resilience.This,in turn,ensures the power system’s stable operation.Currently,there is limited systematic research quantifying the economic value of energy storage in resilience scenarios.Therefore,a model and methodology were proposed to quantify the value of energy storage systems for enhancing grid resilience during extreme events.A two-stage stochastic optimization mathematical model was developed.The first stage involves pre-deployment based on day-ahead expectations,and the second stage involves simulating potential failure scenarios through real-time scheduling.Considering the temporal dimension,the energy storage systems with flexible regulation capabilities was used as emergency power sources to reduce occurrences of load-shedding.Here,a novel index was proposed that quantifies the resilience value of energy storage as the economic value of energy storage per unit of capacity,as reflected in the emergency dispatch model.This index helps determine the balance between the energy storage investment cost and resilience value.Finally,an IEEE-30 node transmission system was used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.The findings revealed a significant improvement in the resilience value,with a 23.49%increase observed when energy storage systems were implemented compared to the scenario without energy storage systems.The optimal capacity configurations for the flywheel,lithium-ion batteries,and pumped hydro storage were 10 MW,11 MW,and 12 MW,respectively,highlight their potential to maximize value in experimental system.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.72042020。
文摘Scientifically assessing the economic impact of major public health emergencies,containing their negative effects,and enhancing the resilience of an economy are important national strategic needs.The new coronavirus disease(COVID-19)has,to date,been effectively contained in China,but the threat of imported cases and local risks still exist.The systematic identification of the virus’s path of influence and intensity is significant for economic recovery.This study is based on a refined multi-regional general equilibrium analysis model,which measures the economic and industrial impacts at different epidemic risk levels in China and simulates development trends and the degree of damage to industries and the economy under changes to supplies of production materials and product demand.The results show that,at the macroeconomic level,China’s GDP will decline about 0.4%to 0.8%compared to normal in 2020,with an average drop of about 2%in short-term consumption,an average drop in employment of about 0.7%,and an average increase in prices of about 0.9%.At the industry level,the epidemic will have the greatest short-term impact on consumer and laborintensive industries.For example,the output value of the service industry will fall 6.3%compared to normal.Looking at the impact of the epidemic on the industrial system,the province most affected by the epidemic is Hubei,which is the only province in China in the level-1 risk category.As the disease spread outward from Hubei,there were clear differences in the main industries that were impacted in different regions.In addition,simulation results of recovery intensity of regional economies under the two epidemic response scenarios of resumption of work and production and active fiscal stimulus policies show that an increase in fiscal stimulus policies produces a 0.3%higher rate of gross regional product growth but it causes commodity prices to rise by about 1.8%.Measures to resume work and production offer a wider scope for industrial recovery.
文摘Transportation network vulnerability analysis has developed increasingly in the last decade with the goal to identify the most critical locations against incidences.In this domain,many of the previous researches have focused on congested urban networks;however,there is still a need to consider regional and interurban sparse rail networks,specifically those networks in developing countries.In such sparse rail networks,there are limited possibilities to redirect trains if a link is disrupted,there might be less possibility of finding redundant alternative routes,and network failures are usually accompanied by a phenomenon called‘unsatisfied demand.’The study reported in this paper stemmed from research aimed to design precautionary actions for a developing country’s sparse railway system.Our study framework deemed to find the most vulnerable part of an inter-urban sparse rail network using a network scan approach,which found the consequences of network disruptions.A number of criteria were defined to determine the total cost including unsatisfied demand and additional transportation costs due to disruptions.The results showed that how well the process of the vulnerability analysis,considering the features of both supply and demand sides,can be a guide for railway authorities in applying system safety measures.
