Damage to electrical equipment in an earthquake can lead to power outage of power systems.Seismic fragility analysis is a common method to assess the seismic reliability of electrical equipment.To further guarantee th...Damage to electrical equipment in an earthquake can lead to power outage of power systems.Seismic fragility analysis is a common method to assess the seismic reliability of electrical equipment.To further guarantee the efficiency of analysis,multi-source uncertainties including the structure itself and seismic excitation need to be considered.A method for seismic fragility analysis that reflects structural and seismic parameter uncertainty was developed in this study.The proposed method used a random sampling method based on Latin hypercube sampling(LHS)to account for the structure parameter uncertainty and the group structure characteristics of electrical equipment.Then,logistic Lasso regression(LLR)was used to find the seismic fragility surface based on double ground motion intensity measures(IM).The seismic fragility based on the finite element model of an±1000 kV main transformer(UHVMT)was analyzed using the proposed method.The results show that the seismic fragility function obtained by this method can be used to construct the relationship between the uncertainty parameters and the failure probability.The seismic fragility surface did not only provide the probabilities of seismic damage states under different IMs,but also had better stability than the fragility curve.Furthermore,the sensitivity analysis of the structural parameters revealed that the elastic module of the bushing and the height of the high-voltage bushing may have a greater influence.展开更多
Logistic regression is often used to solve linear binary classification problems such as machine vision,speech recognition,and handwriting recognition.However,it usually fails to solve certain nonlinear multi-classifi...Logistic regression is often used to solve linear binary classification problems such as machine vision,speech recognition,and handwriting recognition.However,it usually fails to solve certain nonlinear multi-classification problem,such as problem with non-equilibrium samples.Many scholars have proposed some methods,such as neural network,least square support vector machine,AdaBoost meta-algorithm,etc.These methods essentially belong to machine learning categories.In this work,based on the probability theory and statistical principle,we propose an improved logistic regression algorithm based on kernel density estimation for solving nonlinear multi-classification.We have compared our approach with other methods using non-equilibrium samples,the results show that our approach guarantees sample integrity and achieves superior classification.展开更多
Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/appr...Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/approach:The study is based on Monte Carlo simulations.The methods are compared in terms of three measures of accuracy:specificity and two kinds of sensitivity.A loss function combining sensitivity and specificity is introduced and used for a final comparison.Findings:The choice of method depends on how much the users emphasize sensitivity against specificity.It also depends on the sample size.For a typical logistic regression setting with a moderate sample size and a small to moderate effect size,either BIC,BICc or Lasso seems to be optimal.Research limitations:Numerical simulations cannot cover the whole range of data-generating processes occurring with real-world data.Thus,more simulations are needed.Practical implications:Researchers can refer to these results if they believe that their data-generating process is somewhat similar to some of the scenarios presented in this paper.Alternatively,they could run their own simulations and calculate the loss function.Originality/value:This is a systematic comparison of model choice algorithms and heuristics in context of logistic regression.The distinction between two types of sensitivity and a comparison based on a loss function are methodological novelties.展开更多
In view of the composition analysis and identification of ancient glass products, L1 regularization, K-Means cluster analysis, elbow rule and other methods were comprehensively used to build logical regression, cluste...In view of the composition analysis and identification of ancient glass products, L1 regularization, K-Means cluster analysis, elbow rule and other methods were comprehensively used to build logical regression, cluster analysis, hyper-parameter test and other models, and SPSS, Python and other tools were used to obtain the classification rules of glass products under different fluxes, sub classification under different chemical compositions, hyper-parameter K value test and rationality analysis. Research can provide theoretical support for the protection and restoration of ancient glass relics.展开更多
The burning of crop residues in fields is a significant global biomass burning activity which is a key element of the terrestrial carbon cycle,and an important source of atmospheric trace gasses and aerosols.Accurate ...The burning of crop residues in fields is a significant global biomass burning activity which is a key element of the terrestrial carbon cycle,and an important source of atmospheric trace gasses and aerosols.Accurate estimation of cropland burned area is both crucial and challenging,especially for the small and fragmented burned scars in China.Here we developed an automated burned area mapping algorithm that was implemented using Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument(MSI)data and its effectiveness was tested taking Songnen Plain,Northeast China as a case using satellite image of 2020.We employed a logistic regression method for integrating multiple spectral data into a synthetic indicator,and compared the results with manually interpreted burned area reference maps and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)MCD64A1 burned area product.The overall accuracy of the single variable logistic regression was 77.38%to 86.90%and 73.47%to 97.14%for the 52TCQ and 51TYM cases,respectively.In comparison,the accuracy of the burned area map was improved to 87.14%and 98.33%for the 52TCQ and 51TYM cases,respectively by multiple variable logistic regression of Sentind-2 images.The balance of omission error and commission error was also improved.The integration of multiple spectral data combined with a logistic regression method proves to be effective for burned area detection,offering a highly automated process with an automatic threshold determination mechanism.This method exhibits excellent extensibility and flexibility taking the image tile as the operating unit.It is suitable for burned area detection at a regional scale and can also be implemented with other satellite data.展开更多
[Objectives] To analyze the influencing factors of fixed defects in patients with catheter fixation in clinical nursing work, in order to provide the best catheter fixation nursing plan for patients.[Methods] 176 inpa...[Objectives] To analyze the influencing factors of fixed defects in patients with catheter fixation in clinical nursing work, in order to provide the best catheter fixation nursing plan for patients.[Methods] 176 inpatients with indwelling catheter from surgical system of Taihe Hospital in Shiyan City from August 2022 to March 2023 were selected. Using a retrospective analysis method, the influencing factors of catheter fixation defects in the study subjects were divided into two categories based on objective characteristics: type I non modifiable influencing factors and type II modifiable influencing factors. Using the standard for catheter fixation defects, whether the patient had catheter fixation defects was determined. After classified and statistically analyzed item by item, binary Logistic multiple regression analysis was used to identify the influencing factors.[Results] The occurrence of catheter fixation defects in patients with catheter fixation was related to factors such as whether the patient was evaluated before fixation, whether the fixation method was standardized and systematic, whether there was sufficient communication between nurses and patients, and the patient s knowledge of catheter fixation. It was also influenced by factors such as the patient s age, catheterization site, catheterization number, catheterization duration, where there was a consciousness disorder, educational level, and external environmental temperature.[Conclusions] Early attention to the key factors affecting patients with catheter fixation defects can effectively prevent adverse factors and provide patients with the best catheter fixation nursing plan to improve nursing quality.展开更多
In this paper, a logistical regression statistical analysis (LR) is presented for a set of variables used in experimental measurements in reversed field pinch (RFP) machines, commonly known as “slinky mode” (SM), ob...In this paper, a logistical regression statistical analysis (LR) is presented for a set of variables used in experimental measurements in reversed field pinch (RFP) machines, commonly known as “slinky mode” (SM), observed to travel around the torus in Madison Symmetric Torus (MST). The LR analysis is used to utilize the modified Sine-Gordon dynamic equation model to predict with high confidence whether the slinky mode will lock or not lock when compared to the experimentally measured motion of the slinky mode. It is observed that under certain conditions, the slinky mode “locks” at or near the intersection of poloidal and/or toroidal gaps in MST. However, locked mode cease to travel around the torus;while unlocked mode keeps traveling without a change in the energy, making it hard to determine an exact set of conditions to predict locking/unlocking behaviour. The significant key model parameters determined by LR analysis are shown to improve the Sine-Gordon model’s ability to determine the locking/unlocking of magnetohydrodyamic (MHD) modes. The LR analysis of measured variables provides high confidence in anticipating locking versus unlocking of slinky mode proven by relational comparisons between simulations and the experimentally measured motion of the slinky mode in MST.展开更多
The impact of different global and local variables in urban development processes requires a systematic study to fully comprehend the underlying complexities in them.The interplay between such variables is crucial for...The impact of different global and local variables in urban development processes requires a systematic study to fully comprehend the underlying complexities in them.The interplay between such variables is crucial for modelling urban growth to closely reflects reality.Despite extensive research,ambiguity remains about how variations in these input variables influence urban densification.In this study,we conduct a global sensitivity analysis(SA)using a multinomial logistic regression(MNL)model to assess the model’s explanatory and predictive power.We examine the influence of global variables,including spatial resolution,neighborhood size,and density classes,under different input combinations at a provincial scale to understand their impact on densification.Additionally,we perform a stepwise regression to identify the significant explanatory variables that are important for understanding densification in the Brussels Metropolitan Area(BMA).Our results indicate that a finer spatial resolution of 50 m and 100 m,smaller neighborhood size of 5×5 and 3×3,and specific density classes—namely 3(non-built-up,low and high built-up)and 4(non-built-up,low,medium and high built-up)—optimally explain and predict urban densification.In line with the same,the stepwise regression reveals that models with a coarser resolution of 300 m lack significant variables,reflecting a lower explanatory power for densification.This approach aids in identifying optimal and significant global variables with higher explanatory power for understanding and predicting urban densification.Furthermore,these findings are reproducible in a global urban context,offering valuable insights for planners,modelers and geographers in managing future urban growth and minimizing modelling.展开更多
风电机组功率曲线建模是风电功率预测、状态监测、性能评估的关键环节。文章提出了一种基于lo-gistic函数和分位数回归的风电机组功率曲线建模算法。为解决风电功率的不确定性,文中在logistic函数中嵌入了分位回归损失函数,建立了分位...风电机组功率曲线建模是风电功率预测、状态监测、性能评估的关键环节。文章提出了一种基于lo-gistic函数和分位数回归的风电机组功率曲线建模算法。为解决风电功率的不确定性,文中在logistic函数中嵌入了分位回归损失函数,建立了分位数回归logistic模型(quantile regression logistic function,QRLF),并采用了三种优化算法进行优化;为降低原始数据中异常值的影响,提出了基于QRLF算法的自适应异常筛选方法;在三个风电场的SCADA(supervisory control and data acquisition)数据中进行了实例验证。文中采用五种评价指标对所提方法进行评估。结果表明,相比传统的风电机组功率曲线建模方法,文中所提方法可以同时提供较好的确定性功率曲线和概率性功率曲线结果。展开更多
基金National Key R&D Program of China under Grant Nos.2018YFC1504504 and 2018YFC0809404。
文摘Damage to electrical equipment in an earthquake can lead to power outage of power systems.Seismic fragility analysis is a common method to assess the seismic reliability of electrical equipment.To further guarantee the efficiency of analysis,multi-source uncertainties including the structure itself and seismic excitation need to be considered.A method for seismic fragility analysis that reflects structural and seismic parameter uncertainty was developed in this study.The proposed method used a random sampling method based on Latin hypercube sampling(LHS)to account for the structure parameter uncertainty and the group structure characteristics of electrical equipment.Then,logistic Lasso regression(LLR)was used to find the seismic fragility surface based on double ground motion intensity measures(IM).The seismic fragility based on the finite element model of an±1000 kV main transformer(UHVMT)was analyzed using the proposed method.The results show that the seismic fragility function obtained by this method can be used to construct the relationship between the uncertainty parameters and the failure probability.The seismic fragility surface did not only provide the probabilities of seismic damage states under different IMs,but also had better stability than the fragility curve.Furthermore,the sensitivity analysis of the structural parameters revealed that the elastic module of the bushing and the height of the high-voltage bushing may have a greater influence.
基金The authors would like to thank all anonymous reviewers for their suggestions and feedback.This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61379103).
文摘Logistic regression is often used to solve linear binary classification problems such as machine vision,speech recognition,and handwriting recognition.However,it usually fails to solve certain nonlinear multi-classification problem,such as problem with non-equilibrium samples.Many scholars have proposed some methods,such as neural network,least square support vector machine,AdaBoost meta-algorithm,etc.These methods essentially belong to machine learning categories.In this work,based on the probability theory and statistical principle,we propose an improved logistic regression algorithm based on kernel density estimation for solving nonlinear multi-classification.We have compared our approach with other methods using non-equilibrium samples,the results show that our approach guarantees sample integrity and achieves superior classification.
文摘Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/approach:The study is based on Monte Carlo simulations.The methods are compared in terms of three measures of accuracy:specificity and two kinds of sensitivity.A loss function combining sensitivity and specificity is introduced and used for a final comparison.Findings:The choice of method depends on how much the users emphasize sensitivity against specificity.It also depends on the sample size.For a typical logistic regression setting with a moderate sample size and a small to moderate effect size,either BIC,BICc or Lasso seems to be optimal.Research limitations:Numerical simulations cannot cover the whole range of data-generating processes occurring with real-world data.Thus,more simulations are needed.Practical implications:Researchers can refer to these results if they believe that their data-generating process is somewhat similar to some of the scenarios presented in this paper.Alternatively,they could run their own simulations and calculate the loss function.Originality/value:This is a systematic comparison of model choice algorithms and heuristics in context of logistic regression.The distinction between two types of sensitivity and a comparison based on a loss function are methodological novelties.
文摘In view of the composition analysis and identification of ancient glass products, L1 regularization, K-Means cluster analysis, elbow rule and other methods were comprehensively used to build logical regression, cluster analysis, hyper-parameter test and other models, and SPSS, Python and other tools were used to obtain the classification rules of glass products under different fluxes, sub classification under different chemical compositions, hyper-parameter K value test and rationality analysis. Research can provide theoretical support for the protection and restoration of ancient glass relics.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42101414)Natural Science Found for Outstanding Young Scholars in Jilin Province(No.20230508106RC)。
文摘The burning of crop residues in fields is a significant global biomass burning activity which is a key element of the terrestrial carbon cycle,and an important source of atmospheric trace gasses and aerosols.Accurate estimation of cropland burned area is both crucial and challenging,especially for the small and fragmented burned scars in China.Here we developed an automated burned area mapping algorithm that was implemented using Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument(MSI)data and its effectiveness was tested taking Songnen Plain,Northeast China as a case using satellite image of 2020.We employed a logistic regression method for integrating multiple spectral data into a synthetic indicator,and compared the results with manually interpreted burned area reference maps and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)MCD64A1 burned area product.The overall accuracy of the single variable logistic regression was 77.38%to 86.90%and 73.47%to 97.14%for the 52TCQ and 51TYM cases,respectively.In comparison,the accuracy of the burned area map was improved to 87.14%and 98.33%for the 52TCQ and 51TYM cases,respectively by multiple variable logistic regression of Sentind-2 images.The balance of omission error and commission error was also improved.The integration of multiple spectral data combined with a logistic regression method proves to be effective for burned area detection,offering a highly automated process with an automatic threshold determination mechanism.This method exhibits excellent extensibility and flexibility taking the image tile as the operating unit.It is suitable for burned area detection at a regional scale and can also be implemented with other satellite data.
文摘[Objectives] To analyze the influencing factors of fixed defects in patients with catheter fixation in clinical nursing work, in order to provide the best catheter fixation nursing plan for patients.[Methods] 176 inpatients with indwelling catheter from surgical system of Taihe Hospital in Shiyan City from August 2022 to March 2023 were selected. Using a retrospective analysis method, the influencing factors of catheter fixation defects in the study subjects were divided into two categories based on objective characteristics: type I non modifiable influencing factors and type II modifiable influencing factors. Using the standard for catheter fixation defects, whether the patient had catheter fixation defects was determined. After classified and statistically analyzed item by item, binary Logistic multiple regression analysis was used to identify the influencing factors.[Results] The occurrence of catheter fixation defects in patients with catheter fixation was related to factors such as whether the patient was evaluated before fixation, whether the fixation method was standardized and systematic, whether there was sufficient communication between nurses and patients, and the patient s knowledge of catheter fixation. It was also influenced by factors such as the patient s age, catheterization site, catheterization number, catheterization duration, where there was a consciousness disorder, educational level, and external environmental temperature.[Conclusions] Early attention to the key factors affecting patients with catheter fixation defects can effectively prevent adverse factors and provide patients with the best catheter fixation nursing plan to improve nursing quality.
文摘In this paper, a logistical regression statistical analysis (LR) is presented for a set of variables used in experimental measurements in reversed field pinch (RFP) machines, commonly known as “slinky mode” (SM), observed to travel around the torus in Madison Symmetric Torus (MST). The LR analysis is used to utilize the modified Sine-Gordon dynamic equation model to predict with high confidence whether the slinky mode will lock or not lock when compared to the experimentally measured motion of the slinky mode. It is observed that under certain conditions, the slinky mode “locks” at or near the intersection of poloidal and/or toroidal gaps in MST. However, locked mode cease to travel around the torus;while unlocked mode keeps traveling without a change in the energy, making it hard to determine an exact set of conditions to predict locking/unlocking behaviour. The significant key model parameters determined by LR analysis are shown to improve the Sine-Gordon model’s ability to determine the locking/unlocking of magnetohydrodyamic (MHD) modes. The LR analysis of measured variables provides high confidence in anticipating locking versus unlocking of slinky mode proven by relational comparisons between simulations and the experimentally measured motion of the slinky mode in MST.
基金funded by the INTER program and cofunded by the Fond National de la Recherche,Luxembourg(FNR)and the Fund for Scientific Research-FNRS,Belgium(F.R.S-FNRS),T.0233.20-‘Sustainable Residential Densification’project(SusDens,2020–2024).
文摘The impact of different global and local variables in urban development processes requires a systematic study to fully comprehend the underlying complexities in them.The interplay between such variables is crucial for modelling urban growth to closely reflects reality.Despite extensive research,ambiguity remains about how variations in these input variables influence urban densification.In this study,we conduct a global sensitivity analysis(SA)using a multinomial logistic regression(MNL)model to assess the model’s explanatory and predictive power.We examine the influence of global variables,including spatial resolution,neighborhood size,and density classes,under different input combinations at a provincial scale to understand their impact on densification.Additionally,we perform a stepwise regression to identify the significant explanatory variables that are important for understanding densification in the Brussels Metropolitan Area(BMA).Our results indicate that a finer spatial resolution of 50 m and 100 m,smaller neighborhood size of 5×5 and 3×3,and specific density classes—namely 3(non-built-up,low and high built-up)and 4(non-built-up,low,medium and high built-up)—optimally explain and predict urban densification.In line with the same,the stepwise regression reveals that models with a coarser resolution of 300 m lack significant variables,reflecting a lower explanatory power for densification.This approach aids in identifying optimal and significant global variables with higher explanatory power for understanding and predicting urban densification.Furthermore,these findings are reproducible in a global urban context,offering valuable insights for planners,modelers and geographers in managing future urban growth and minimizing modelling.
文摘风电机组功率曲线建模是风电功率预测、状态监测、性能评估的关键环节。文章提出了一种基于lo-gistic函数和分位数回归的风电机组功率曲线建模算法。为解决风电功率的不确定性,文中在logistic函数中嵌入了分位回归损失函数,建立了分位数回归logistic模型(quantile regression logistic function,QRLF),并采用了三种优化算法进行优化;为降低原始数据中异常值的影响,提出了基于QRLF算法的自适应异常筛选方法;在三个风电场的SCADA(supervisory control and data acquisition)数据中进行了实例验证。文中采用五种评价指标对所提方法进行评估。结果表明,相比传统的风电机组功率曲线建模方法,文中所提方法可以同时提供较好的确定性功率曲线和概率性功率曲线结果。
