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Cascading failures in congested complex networks with feedback 被引量:2
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作者 郑建风 高自友 +1 位作者 傅白白 李峰 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2009年第11期4754-4759,共6页
In this article, we investigate cascading failures in complex networks by introducing a feedback. To characterize the effect of the feedback, we define a procedure that involves a self-organization of trip distributio... In this article, we investigate cascading failures in complex networks by introducing a feedback. To characterize the effect of the feedback, we define a procedure that involves a self-organization of trip distribution during the process of cascading failures. For this purpose, user equilibrium with variable demand is used as an alternative way to determine the traffic flow pattern throughout the network. Under the attack, cost function dynamics are introduced to discuss edge overload in complex networks, where each edge is assigned a finite capacity (controlled by parameter α). We find that scale-free networks without considering the effect of the feedback are expected to be very sensitive to α as compared with random networks, while this situation is largely improved after introducing the feedback. 展开更多
关键词 complex networks cascading failures feedback
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Model for cascading failures with adaptive defense in complex networks 被引量:2
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作者 胡柯 胡涛 唐翌 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2010年第8期65-71,共7页
This paper investigates cascading failures in networks by considering interplay between the flow dynamic and the network topology, where the fluxes exchanged between a pair of nodes can be adaptively adjusted dependin... This paper investigates cascading failures in networks by considering interplay between the flow dynamic and the network topology, where the fluxes exchanged between a pair of nodes can be adaptively adjusted depending on the changes of the shortest path lengths between them. The simulations on both an artificially created scale-free network and the real network structure of the power grid reveal that the adaptive adjustment of the fluxes can drastically enhance the robustness of complex networks against cascading failures. Particularly, there exists an optimal region where the propagation of the cascade is significantly suppressed and the fluxes supported by the network are maximal. With this understanding, a costless strategy of defense for preventing cascade breakdown is proposed. It is shown to be more effective for suppressing the propagation of the cascade than the recent proposed strategy of defense based on the intentional removal of nodes. 展开更多
关键词 cascading failure adaptive defense complex network
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Improving robustness of complex networks by a new capacity allocation strategy 被引量:2
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作者 Jun Liu 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第1期417-427,共11页
The robustness of infrastructure networks has attracted great attention in recent years. Scholars have studied the robustness of complex networks against cascading failures from different aspects. In this paper, a new... The robustness of infrastructure networks has attracted great attention in recent years. Scholars have studied the robustness of complex networks against cascading failures from different aspects. In this paper, a new capacity allocation strategy is proposed to reduce cascading failures and improve network robustness without changing the network structure.Compared with the typical strategy proposed in Motter–Lai(ML) model, the new strategy can reduce the scale of cascading failure. The new strategy applied in scale-free network is more efficient. In addition, to reasonably evaluate the two strategies, we introduce contribution rate of unit capacity to network robustness as evaluation index. Results show that our new strategy works well, and it is more advantageous in the rational utilization of capacity in scale-free networks.Furthermore, we were surprised to find that the efficient utilization of capacity costs declined as costs rose above a certain threshold, which indicates that it is not wise to restrain cascading failures by increasing capacity costs indefinitely. 展开更多
关键词 capacity cascading failure complex network ROBUSTNESS
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Science Letters:Model for cascading failures in congested Internet 被引量:1
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作者 Jian WANG Yan-heng LIU +1 位作者 Jian-qi ZHU Yu JIAO 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2008年第10期1331-1335,共5页
Cascading failures often occur in congested networks such as the Internet. A cascading failure can be described as a three-phase process: generation, diffusion, and dissipation of the congestion. In this account, we ... Cascading failures often occur in congested networks such as the Internet. A cascading failure can be described as a three-phase process: generation, diffusion, and dissipation of the congestion. In this account, we present a function that represents the extent of congestion on a given node. This approach is different from existing fimctions based on betweenness centrality. By introducing the concept of 'delay time', we designate an intergradation between permanent removal and nonremoval. We also construct an evaluation fimction of network efficiency, based on congestion, which measures the damage caused by cascading failures. Finally, we investigate the effects of network structure and size, delay time, processing ability and packet generation speed on congestion propagation. Also, we uncover the relationship between the cascade dynamics and some properties of the network such as structure and size. 展开更多
关键词 complex network cascading failures Congestion effects Propagation model
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A NEW CASCADING FAILURE MODEL WITH DELAY TIME IN CONGESTED COMPLEX NETWORKS 被引量:1
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作者 Jian WANG Yanheng LIU Yu JIAO 《Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2009年第3期369-381,共13页
Cascading failures often occur in congested complex networks. Cascading failures can be expressed as a three-phase process: generation, diffusion, and dissipation of congestion. Different from the betweenness central... Cascading failures often occur in congested complex networks. Cascading failures can be expressed as a three-phase process: generation, diffusion, and dissipation of congestion. Different from the betweenness centrality, a congestion function is proposed to represent the extent of congestion on a given node. Inspired by the restart process of a node, we introduce the concept of "delay time," during which the overloaded node Cannot receive or forward any traffic, so an intergradation between permanent removal and nonremoval is built and the flexibility of the presented model is demonstrated. Considering the connectivity of a network before and after cascading failures is not cracked because the overloaded node are not removed from network permanently in our model, a new evaluation function of network efficiency is also proposed to measure the damage caused by cascading failures. Finally, we investigate the effects of network structure and size, delay time, processing ability, and traffic generation speed on congestion propagation. Cascading processes composed of three phases and some factors affecting cascade propagation are uncovered as well. 展开更多
关键词 complex networks cascading failures congestion effects propagation model
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MODELING AND SIMULATION OF THE VULNERABILITY OF INTERDEPENDENT POWER-WATER INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORKS TO CASCADING FAILURES 被引量:9
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作者 Yanlu Zhang Naiding Yang Upmanu Lall 《Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2016年第1期102-118,共17页
Critical infrastructures are becoming increasingly interdependent and vulnerable to cascading failures. Existing studies have analyzed the vulnerability of interdependent networks to cascading failures from the static... Critical infrastructures are becoming increasingly interdependent and vulnerable to cascading failures. Existing studies have analyzed the vulnerability of interdependent networks to cascading failures from the static perspective of network topology structure. This paper develops a more realistic cascading failures model that considers the dynamic redistribution of load in power network to explore the vulnerability of interdependent power-water networks. In this model, the critical tolerance threshold is originally proposed to indicate the vulnerability of network to cascading failures. In addition, some key parameters that are important to network vulnerability are identified and quantified through numerical simulation. Results show that cascading failures can be prevented when the values of tolerance parameter are above a critical tolerance threshold. Otherwise interdependent networks collapse after attacking a critical fraction of power nodes. Interdependent networks become more vulnerable with the increase in interdependence strength, which implies the importance of protecting those interconnected nodes to reduce the consequences of cascading failures. Interdependent networks are most vulnerable under high-load attack, which shows the significance of protecting high-load nodes. 展开更多
关键词 Interdependent infrastructure networks VULNERABILITY cascading failures complex network numerical simulation
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Cascading failures in local-world evolving networks 被引量:10
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作者 Zhe-jing BAO Yi-jia CAO 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2008年第10期1336-1340,共5页
The local-world (LW) evolving network model shows a transition for the degree distribution between the exponential and power-law distributions, depending on the LW size. Cascading failures under intentional attacks in... The local-world (LW) evolving network model shows a transition for the degree distribution between the exponential and power-law distributions, depending on the LW size. Cascading failures under intentional attacks in LW network models with different LW sizes were investigated using the cascading failures load model. We found that the LW size has a significant impact on the network's robustness against deliberate attacks. It is much easier to trigger cascading failures in LW evolving networks with a larger LW size. Therefore, to avoid cascading failures in real networks with local preferential attachment such as the Internet, the World Trade Web and the multi-agent system, the LW size should be as small as possible. 展开更多
关键词 complex network Local world (LW) cascading failures POWER-LAW ATTACK
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Capacity allocation strategy against cascading failure of complex network
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作者 LIU Jun LIANG Xiaolong LEI Pengfei 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 CSCD 2024年第6期1507-1515,共9页
Cascading failures in infrastructure networks have serious impacts on network function.The limited capacity of net-work nodes provides a necessary condition for cascade failure.However,the network capacity cannot be i... Cascading failures in infrastructure networks have serious impacts on network function.The limited capacity of net-work nodes provides a necessary condition for cascade failure.However,the network capacity cannot be infinite in the real net-work system.Therefore,how to reasonably allocate the limited capacity resources is of great significance.In this article,we put forward a capacity allocation strategy based on community structure against cascading failure.Experimental results indi-cate that the proposed method can reduce the scale of cascade failures with higher capacity utilization compared with Motter-Lai(ML)model.The advantage of our method is more obvious in scale-free network.Furthermore,the experiment shows that the cascade effect is more obvious when the vertex load is ran-domly varying.It is known to all that the growth of network capacity can make the network more resistant to destruction,but in this paper it is found that the contribution rate of unit capacity rises first and then decreases with the growth of net-work capacity cost. 展开更多
关键词 capacity complex network failure of cascade
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Load-redistribution strategy based on time-varying load against cascading failure of complex network 被引量:4
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作者 刘军 熊庆宇 +2 位作者 石欣 王楷 石为人 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第7期371-377,共7页
Cascading failure can cause great damage to complex networks, so it is of great significance to improve the network robustness against cascading failure. Many previous existing works on load-redistribution strategies ... Cascading failure can cause great damage to complex networks, so it is of great significance to improve the network robustness against cascading failure. Many previous existing works on load-redistribution strategies require global information, which is not suitable for large scale networks, and some strategies based on local information assume that the load of a node is always its initial load before the network is attacked, and the load of the failure node is redistributed to its neighbors according to their initial load or initial residual capacity. This paper proposes a new load-redistribution strategy based on local information considering an ever-changing load. It redistributes the loads of the failure node to its nearest neighbors according to their current residual capacity, which makes full use of the residual capacity of the network. Experiments are conducted on two typical networks and two real networks, and the experimental results show that the new load-redistribution strategy can reduce the size of cascading failure efficiently. 展开更多
关键词 load redistribution time-varying load cascading failure complex networks
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多层网络视角下的中欧海铁运输网络级联失效脆弱性分析
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作者 张玉召 康欢欢 邓雨露 《计算机工程与应用》 北大核心 2025年第5期298-308,共11页
为研究多层网络建模方法及结构特性、多层网络节点重要度计算与级联失效过程各因素对脆弱性动态变化的影响,利用多层网络理论构建双层运输网络拓扑模型并分析其拓扑特性,提出一种多层网络节点重要度计算方法,并设计考虑节点容量、节点... 为研究多层网络建模方法及结构特性、多层网络节点重要度计算与级联失效过程各因素对脆弱性动态变化的影响,利用多层网络理论构建双层运输网络拓扑模型并分析其拓扑特性,提出一种多层网络节点重要度计算方法,并设计考虑节点容量、节点状态、节点重要度的负载-容量级联失效模型,仿真分析影响网络脆弱性的因素与变化规律。研究表明,中欧海铁双层运输网络符合复杂网络的无标度特性,网络层间异配耦合连接,节点容量系数、不同类型节点及负载分配方式对网络脆弱性影响较大,并验证了多层网络节点重要度计算方法的合理性。结论显示,发生突发事件时要优先保护重要节点,设计车站时要预留一定负载冗余空间,以提升节点失效后的负载承受能力。 展开更多
关键词 复杂网络 多层网络 节点重要性 级联失效 网络脆弱性
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全球水产品贸易网络的供应风险传播研究
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作者 高源 陈嘉浩 《中国渔业经济》 2025年第1期71-81,共11页
保障水产品供给,筑牢粮食安全,防备极端状况下水产品供应危机至关重要。因此,了解不同源头所导致的系统性影响和传播路径,对于防范供应危机非常有价值。为此,本文选取2019—2022年的相关数据,运用级联故障模型对潜在的供应链雪崩效应进... 保障水产品供给,筑牢粮食安全,防备极端状况下水产品供应危机至关重要。因此,了解不同源头所导致的系统性影响和传播路径,对于防范供应危机非常有价值。为此,本文选取2019—2022年的相关数据,运用级联故障模型对潜在的供应链雪崩效应进行模拟,并对危机传播的结构性特征进行详细分析。结果表明:(1)当比值r=8时,不同经济体作为危机源所导致的雪崩过程具有明显的差异性。(2)2019—2022年重要危机源的雪崩变化趋势呈现多样化的特点。(3)出度、出强度和中介中心性对水产品供应危机的动态传播有明显影响,入度、入强度和特征向量中心性则并不显著。(4)r=8的情况下,仅厄瓜多尔的水产品供应危机可以波及到中国。(5)空间邻近度在危机的逐轮扩散中影响显著,迂回感染是传递级联危机的主要途径,对雪崩过程有着重要影响。通过优化关键节点的进口结构、实施动态风险监控及多边贸易协作,以应对气候变化与地缘冲突引发的级联供应风险,从而增强全球水产品贸易网络的韧性与可持续性。 展开更多
关键词 水产品贸易 复杂网络 供应风险 级联失效
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考虑停运概率熵和网架结构熵的电网关键线路辨识方法
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作者 潘松 李长城 +3 位作者 康海鹏 黄思琪 苏子扬 张玺 《电力系统自动化》 北大核心 2025年第1期139-149,共11页
线路停运概率对连锁故障的触发和演化具有重要影响。然而,现有关于电网线路停运概率分布均衡性的研究存在考虑不足的问题。文中结合复杂网络理论分析方法与熵理论,提出综合考虑停运概率熵和网架结构熵的电网关键线路辨识方法,旨在量化... 线路停运概率对连锁故障的触发和演化具有重要影响。然而,现有关于电网线路停运概率分布均衡性的研究存在考虑不足的问题。文中结合复杂网络理论分析方法与熵理论,提出综合考虑停运概率熵和网架结构熵的电网关键线路辨识方法,旨在量化线路在电网运行状态和网络状态层面的综合影响力。首先,基于线路停运概率模型,提出了停运概率分布熵与停运概率变化熵指标,区分了线路潮流在正常值范围内、正常值与极限值之间和大于极限值3个状态对辨识结果的影响,克服了现有指标中对直接影响线路故障因素考虑欠缺的不足。其次,结合改进网架结构熵,提出了反映电网网架结构和运行状态的关键线路综合指标。然后,结合功率平衡策略,提出电网关键线路辨识方法。最后,基于改进网络效能指标对IEEE 39节点系统和IEEE 118节点系统进行仿真,验证了所提方法的可行性和正确性。 展开更多
关键词 线路辨识 复杂网络 连锁故障 停运概率 网络效能
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Prospects of Studies on Application of Complex System Theory in Power Systems
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《中国电机工程学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2012年第19期I0001-I0024,共24页
关键词 复杂系统理论 电力系统 应用 级联故障 连锁故障 大停电 社会影响 经济损失
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全球金属镓、锗贸易网络格局演变与供应危机传播研究 被引量:1
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作者 廖秋敏 谢柳燕 韩嘉雯 《黄金科学技术》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期717-730,共14页
镓和锗是广泛应用于高新技术领域的重要战略资源。为了估测原产地发生供应危机对全球各国造成的影响,选取了2002—2022年金属镓、锗的贸易数据,运用贸易网络分析方法探究全球金属镓、锗贸易网络格局演变;建立级联失效(雪崩)模型,确立参... 镓和锗是广泛应用于高新技术领域的重要战略资源。为了估测原产地发生供应危机对全球各国造成的影响,选取了2002—2022年金属镓、锗的贸易数据,运用贸易网络分析方法探究全球金属镓、锗贸易网络格局演变;建立级联失效(雪崩)模型,确立参数r_(1)=r_(2)=7,模拟2022年不同爆发源供应危机传播状况。研究发现:从全球贸易格局演变来看,金属镓、锗贸易规模和贸易平均度上升,亚洲国家与美国的贸易依赖关系有所减弱,南美洲对美国消费市场的贸易依赖指数增强;从网络供应危机传播来看,中国危机传播规模最大,传播轮次最多,美国和德国次之;在未锻轧金属镓、锗产品的贸易中,美国不会受中国供应危机的直接影响,而是通过比利时和瑞士受到间接影响。 展开更多
关键词 金属镓 金属锗 贸易格局 复杂网络 供应危机 级联失效
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复杂金融网络级联失效模型仿真及可靠性分析
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作者 张权 莫祯祥 杨璐瑞 《运筹与管理》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期112-117,共6页
复杂网络中级联失效现象会导致网络大面积崩溃进而导致一系列灾难性后果,通过对其建模、仿真和定量分析可以有效预防和解决级联失效问题。本文在复杂网络理论基础上,基于复杂网络的动力学特征和级联失效机理,运用图论语言建立了金融网... 复杂网络中级联失效现象会导致网络大面积崩溃进而导致一系列灾难性后果,通过对其建模、仿真和定量分析可以有效预防和解决级联失效问题。本文在复杂网络理论基础上,基于复杂网络的动力学特征和级联失效机理,运用图论语言建立了金融网络模型;首次将级联失效经典模型运用到复杂金融网络研究中,提出了金融网络级联失效模型。然后通过仿真定量分析了不同条件下金融网络级联失效模型的可靠性,验证了模型的有效性,有助于复杂金融网络失效的预防及进一步研究。研究发现:第一、在金融网络级联失效模型仿真过程中,增加迭代次数,会导致网络效率下降,节点失效率上升。当网络受到蓄意攻击时,网络效率迅速下降,节点失效率快速上升;网络受到极大冲击,且这种冲击远大于随机攻击情况下。第二、同一种攻击方式下,提升风险容忍系数α,有助于提高网络效率、降低失效率,提升网络可靠性,甚至可以避免网络级联失效的发生,但这会付出相应的成本。 展开更多
关键词 复杂网络 金融网络 级联失效模型 仿真 可靠性分析
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B2B2C供应链物流-订单流复合网络鲁棒性研究
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作者 孙军艳 陈马骏驰 郭柳艺 《西安理工大学学报》 CAS 北大核心 2024年第2期269-277,共9页
基于渗流理论,考虑节点的渗流容量和受上下游失效节点的影响不同,设计了复合网络上下游级联失效策略,采用平均最短路径长度、最大连通子图率和网络全局效率评估B2B2C复合网络的鲁棒性。仿真表明:随着渗流容量系数的增加,网络鲁棒性增强... 基于渗流理论,考虑节点的渗流容量和受上下游失效节点的影响不同,设计了复合网络上下游级联失效策略,采用平均最短路径长度、最大连通子图率和网络全局效率评估B2B2C复合网络的鲁棒性。仿真表明:随着渗流容量系数的增加,网络鲁棒性增强;复合网络对于蓄意攻击的抵抗性较差,平均最短路径长度、全局效率和最大连通子图率呈断崖式下降到0,网络基本瘫痪,而面对随机攻击则具有较好的鲁棒性;与物流网络相比,复合网络平均度低40.6%,幂指数高12.1%,鲁棒性较好。 展开更多
关键词 供应链 复杂网络 渗流理论 级联失效 鲁棒性
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基于级联失效的西部陆海新通道网络脆弱性分析
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作者 冯芬玲 董开云 +1 位作者 张泽 方源 《交通运输系统工程与信息》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2024年第6期15-29,共15页
西部陆海新通道涉及多个港口和货运站点,且通道内节点与线路易受各类风险事件影响,并伴随其导致的货流在节点间转移从而引发网络的级联失效,使通道呈现一定的脆弱性。因此,本文基于西部陆海新通道内存在的不同运输方式构建相应的子网络... 西部陆海新通道涉及多个港口和货运站点,且通道内节点与线路易受各类风险事件影响,并伴随其导致的货流在节点间转移从而引发网络的级联失效,使通道呈现一定的脆弱性。因此,本文基于西部陆海新通道内存在的不同运输方式构建相应的子网络,复合叠加地理距离较近的节点,构建西部陆海新通道复合运输网络;其次,基于改进的相关性赋权法—优劣解距离法(CRITIC-TOPSIS)识别网络关键致脆节点,建立更符合真实复杂系统特性的非线性负载—容量的级联失效模型,设定网络连通度与网络过载效率指标测算网络脆弱性变化幅度;最后,对网络进行脆弱性仿真模拟,比较分析不同参数与策略设定对网络脆弱性的影响。仿真结果表明:西部陆海新通道复合运输网络能够有效体现各子网络之间的互补作用,相比于各运输子网络,在受到攻击后,网络的脆弱性水平显著降低;基于节点致脆度的蓄意攻击策略比其他节点攻击策略能使网络以更快的速度崩溃,失效节点数为10时,复合运输网络的脆弱性指标已下降99%,网络达到近乎崩溃的速度最快;在一定范围内调节容量系数可以有效降低西部陆海新通道复合运输网络的脆弱性水平,当容量冗余系数α≥4和β≥1.4,过载容量系数γ≥0.3时,网络对不同攻击策略的扰动抵抗能力较强,网络脆弱性水平较低。 展开更多
关键词 综合运输 脆弱性分析 复杂网络 西部陆海新通道 级联失效
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基于超图理论的城市轨道交通超网络级联失效仿真 被引量:1
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作者 韩紫金 钱名军 +1 位作者 王玺宪 张凯悦 《系统仿真学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第12期2960-2970,共11页
为提升城市轨道交通线网的抗毁性能,确保其在面临突发事件时的稳定运行和乘客安全,引入超图理论,构建基于超图的城市轨道交通超网络模型,并建立基于客流加权的非线性负载-容量级联失效模型。针对实际交通网络站点客流疏散过程,从网络层... 为提升城市轨道交通线网的抗毁性能,确保其在面临突发事件时的稳定运行和乘客安全,引入超图理论,构建基于超图的城市轨道交通超网络模型,并建立基于客流加权的非线性负载-容量级联失效模型。针对实际交通网络站点客流疏散过程,从网络层面和客流重要度考虑,提出了负载重分配机制。对实际交通网络站点停运时仍可接受负载现象,设计了节点状态判定模型。结果表明:超图分配机制更符合实际交通流传播,介数攻击对网络级联失效影响更大,适当增加节点容量参数可提高网络的鲁棒性,过载能力系数的变化不会对级联失效现象产生影响。 展开更多
关键词 超网络 级联失效 轨道交通 鲁棒性 复杂网络
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中国天然气供应风险响应研究
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作者 付俊怡 王强 +1 位作者 杨铖 吴巧生 《中国人口·资源与环境》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2024年第9期54-66,共13页
在能源低碳转型和供应风险冲击的双重影响下,天然气供应安全对各经济体实现能源安全和“双碳”目标至关重要。为探究风险频发背景下天然气供应安全问题,该研究首先基于天然气贸易数据构建全球天然气供应网络,通过计算机仿真并运用逾渗... 在能源低碳转型和供应风险冲击的双重影响下,天然气供应安全对各经济体实现能源安全和“双碳”目标至关重要。为探究风险频发背景下天然气供应安全问题,该研究首先基于天然气贸易数据构建全球天然气供应网络,通过计算机仿真并运用逾渗理论识别全球天然气核心供应网络。其次,构建基于复杂网络理论的改进级联失效模型模拟风险传递的动态过程,明晰风险传递路径。在此基础上,量化核心供应网络中主要天然气供应经济体减少供应时,作为核心供应网络中主要进口国的中国在不同情景下的天然气进口损失。结果表明:①当天然气供应网络遭受攻击时,其特征会发生明显变化,度中心性由高到低排名前16%的经济体构成全球天然气核心供应网络。②中国天然气进口损失,不仅随风险源经济体出口中国天然气数量的上升而上升,而且随价格指数涨幅和风险程度的增加而增加,风险程度增加造成的影响高于价格指数。③风险源为尼日利亚时,中国天然气进口损失最大。风险源为美国、俄罗斯和马来西亚时,在风险程度为50%情况下,中国天然气没有进口损失,而是获得更大的市场份额;在风险程度为35%和65%时,中国天然气存在进口损失。这意味着,要想降低外部风险对中国天然气供应的影响,一是要建立完备的风险防范与预警机制以实现对尼日利亚、美国等重要风险源经济体的动态监测和管控;二是要做好天然气市场预期管理以降低价格波动对天然气进口的影响;三是通过强化战略储备和参与全球治理等措施增强中国天然气进口风险抵御能力。研究结论有助于决策者制定有效的资源安全战略,以建立一个具有更高韧性的贸易体系,从而提高天然气供应的安全性和效率。 展开更多
关键词 天然气 供应风险 响应 复杂网络 级联失效
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复杂环境下工程物流网络级联失效抗毁性研究
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作者 申皓 张锦 +1 位作者 陈朗 李国旗 《安全与环境学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第8期3036-3045,共10页
合理评估工程物流网络抗毁性有助于保障工程物资及时准确供应,为制定物资运输计划与交通中断疏通应急预案提供科学支撑。针对复杂环境下工程物流网络运输通道承载能力不足且风险多样的特征,在考虑路段状态的基础上提出了拥堵效应分配策... 合理评估工程物流网络抗毁性有助于保障工程物资及时准确供应,为制定物资运输计划与交通中断疏通应急预案提供科学支撑。针对复杂环境下工程物流网络运输通道承载能力不足且风险多样的特征,在考虑路段状态的基础上提出了拥堵效应分配策略,选择与复杂环境下工程物流网络中断成因相对应的三种攻击方式进行级联失效模拟。构建了反映路段抗毁能力、网络结构完整性及网络服务能力的评价指标,评估了复杂环境下工程物流网络和路段的抗毁性。最后,以复杂环境下某交通基础设施建设工程物流网络为例,验证了模型的有效性和合理性。结果表明:当路段容差参数β和失效阈值参数λ取值为0.5时,工程物流网络抗毁能力提升最为经济合理;工程物流网络中的路段在面临不同规模级联失效时存活率排序稳定,需要对存活率较低的路段制定针对性保通策略;工程物流网络抵抗介数降序蓄意攻击的能力较弱,面对风险降序蓄意攻击时抗毁性较强;相较于传统负载重分配策略,所提出的拥堵效应分配策略可以使工程物流网络抗毁性提升约38%。 展开更多
关键词 安全工程 工程物流网络 级联失效 拥堵效应 抗毁性 复杂环境
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