The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it rea...The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it reached a lower stage after 1980/s. Correlation analysis reveals that EASM is closely related with the global atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). The differences between the weak and strong stage of EASM shows that, the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and North Africa is sharply weakened, in the meantime, the westerlies in high latitudes and the trade-wind over the tropical ocean are also changed significantly. Over the most regions south of the northern subtropics, both air temperature in the lower troposphere and SST tended to rise compared with the strong stage of EASM. It is also revealed that the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean plays a key role in interannual to interdecadal variation of EASM, most probably, the subtropical indian Ocean is more important. On the other hand, the ENSO event is less related to EASM at least during the concerned period.展开更多
Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model,we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature （SST）.The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could int...Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model,we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature （SST）.The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex.In the model runs,global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere,while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere.The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere.Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves,the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes.Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation （BDC）,but the gradient increases of SST between 60°S and 60°N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling,with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase.展开更多
This study is focused on climate-induced variation of sea level in Stockholm during 1873-1995. After the effect of the land uplift, is removed, the residual is characterized and related to large-scale temperature and ...This study is focused on climate-induced variation of sea level in Stockholm during 1873-1995. After the effect of the land uplift, is removed, the residual is characterized and related to large-scale temperature and atmospheric circulation. The residual shows an overall upward trend, although this result depends on the uplift rate used. However, the seasonal distribution of the trend is uneven. There are even two months （June and August） that show a negative trend. The significant trend in August may be linked to fresh water input that is controlled by precipitation. The influence of the atmospheric conditions on the sea level is mainly manifested through zonal winds, vorticity and temperature. While the wind is important in the period January-May, the vorticity plays a main role during June and December. A successful linear multiple-regression model linking the climatic variables （zonal winds, vorticity and mean air temperature during the previous two months） and the sea level is established for each month. An independent verification of the model shows that it has considerable skill in simulating the variability.展开更多
Based on an empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature （OISST） data in the South China Sea （SCS） after removing the climatological mean and tre...Based on an empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature （OISST） data in the South China Sea （SCS） after removing the climatological mean and trends of SST, over the period of January 1982 to October 2003, the corresponding TCF correlates best with the Dipole Mode Index （DMI）, Nino1＋2, Nino3.4, Nino3, and Niflo4 indices with time lags of 10, 3, 6, 5, and 6 months, respectively. Thus, a statistical hindcasts in the prediction model are based on a canonical correlation analysis （CCA） model using the above indices as predictors spanning from 1993/1994 to 2003/2004 with a 1-12 month lead time after the canonical variants are calculated, using data from the training periods from January 1982 to December1992. The forecast model is successful and steady when the lead times are 1-12 months. The SCS warm event in 1998 was successfully predicted with lead times from 1-12 months irrespective of the strength or time extent. The prediction ability for SSTA is lower during weak ENSO years, in which other local factors should be also considered as local effects play a relatively important role in these years. We designed the two forecast models： one using both DMI and Nino indices and the other using only Nino indices without DMI, and compared the forecast accuracies of the two cases. The spatial distributions of forecast accuracies show different confidence areas. By turning off the DMI, the forecast accuracy is lower in the coastal areas off the Philippines in the SCS, suggesting some teleconnection may occur with the Indian Ocean in this area. The highest forecast accuracies occur when the forecast interval is five months long without using the DMI, while using both of Nino indices and DMI, the highest accuracies occur when the forecast interval time is eight months, suggesting that the Nino indices dominate the interannual variability of SST anomalies in the SCS. Meanwhile the forecast accuracy is evaluated over an independent test period of more than 11 years （1993/94 to October 2004） by comparing the model performance with a simple prediction strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies over a 1-12 month lead time （the persisted prediction）. Predictions based on the CCA model show a significant improvement over the persisted prediction, especially with an increased lead time （longer than 3 months）. The forecast model performs steadily and the forecast accuracy, i.e., the correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SSTA in the SCS are about 0.5 in most middle and southern SCS areas, when the thresholds are greater than the 95% confidence level. For all 1 to 12 month lead time forecasts, the root mean square errors have a standard deviation of about 0.2. The seasonal differences in the prediction performance for the 1-12 month lead time are also examined.展开更多
With correlation analysis and factor analysis methods, the effects of preceding Pacific SSTs on subtropical high indexes of main raining seasons are discussed. The results of correlation analysis show that the effects...With correlation analysis and factor analysis methods, the effects of preceding Pacific SSTs on subtropical high indexes of main raining seasons are discussed. The results of correlation analysis show that the effects of SSTs on five subtropical high indexes differ in seasons and regions. The variation of SSTs mostly affects the area and intensity indexes of the subtropical high, followed by the western ridge index, and the effect on the ridge line index is more remarkable than on the north boundary index. The results of factor analysis reveals that the first common factor of SST of each season reflected mainly the inverse relation of SSTs variation between the central and eastern part of equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific, which correlates better with the subtropical high indexes in the main raining seasons than other common factors of SST. The analysis of interdecadal variation indicated that the variation of SSTs was conducive to the emergence of the La Ni?a event before the end of 1970s, such that in the summer the subtropical high is likely to be weaker and smaller and located eastward and northward. After the 1980s, the opposite characteristics prevailed.展开更多
The co-variation of surface wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST) over the Gulf Stream frontal region is investigated using high-resolution satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis data. Results show t...The co-variation of surface wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST) over the Gulf Stream frontal region is investigated using high-resolution satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis data. Results show that the pattern of positive SST-surface wind speed correlations is anchored by strong SST gradient and marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) height front, with active warm and cold-ocean eddies around. The MABL has an obvious transitional structure along the strong SST front, with greater (lesser) heights over the north (south) side. The significant positive SST-surface wind-speed perturbation correlations are mostly found over both strong warm and cold eddies. The surface wind speed increases (decreases) about 0.32 (0.41) m/s and the MABL elevates (drops) approximate 55 (54) m per 1℃ of SST perturbation induced by warm (cold) eddies. The response of the surface wind speed to SST perturbations over the mesoscale eddies is mainly attributed to the momentum vertical mixing in the MABL, which is confirmed by the linear relationships between the downwind (crosswind) SST gradient and wind divergence (curl).展开更多
The global surface temperature change since the mid-19th century has caused general concern and intensive study. However, long-term changes in the marginal seas, including the seas east of China, are not well understo...The global surface temperature change since the mid-19th century has caused general concern and intensive study. However, long-term changes in the marginal seas, including the seas east of China, are not well understood because long-term observations are sparse and, even when they exist, they are over limited areas. Preliminary results on the long-term variability of sea surface temperature （SST） in summer and winter in the seas east of China during the period of 1957-2001 are reported using the Ocean Science Database of Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the coastal hydrological station in situ and satellite data. The results show well-defined warming trends in the study area. However warming and cooling trends vary from decade to decade, with steady and rapid warming trends after the 1980s and complicated spatial patterns. The distribution of SST variation is intricate and more blurred in the areas far away from the Kuroshio system. Both historical and satellite data sets show significant warming trends after 1985. The warming trends are larger and spread to wider areas in winter than in summer, which means decrease in the seasonal cycle of SST probably linked with recently observed increase of the tropical zooplankton species in the region. Spatial structures of the SST trends are roughly consistent with the circulation pattern especially in winter when the meridional SST gradients are larger, suggesting that a horizontal advection may play an important role in the long-term SST variability in winter.展开更多
By adopting characteristic index data for the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) from the National Climate Center of China, U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Resear...By adopting characteristic index data for the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) from the National Climate Center of China, U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) sea surface temperature(SST) data, we studied the WPSH variability considering the background of climate warming by using a Gaussian filter, moving averages, correlation analysis, and synthetic analysis. Our results show that with climate warming over the past 60 years, significant changes in the WPSH include its enlarged area, strengthened intensity,westward extended ridge point and southward expanded southern boundary, as well as enhanced interannual fluctuations in all these indices. The western ridge point of the WPSH consistently varies with temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere, but the location of the ridgeline varies independently. The intensity and area of the WPSH were both significantly increased in the late 1980 s. Specifically, the western ridge point started to significantly extend westward in the early 1990 s, and the associated interannual variability had a significant increase in the late 1990 s; in addition, the ridgeline was swaying along the north-south-north direction, and the corresponding variability was also greatly enhanced in the late 1990 s. With climate warming, the SST increase becomes more weakly correlated with the WPSH intensity enhancement but more strongly correlated with the westward extension of the ridge point in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean in winter, corresponding to an expanding WPSH in space. In the northern Pacific in winter, the SST decrease has a weaker correlation with the southerly location of the ridgeline but also a stronger correlation with the westward extension of the ridge point. In the tropical western Pacific in winter, the correlations of the SST decrease with the WPSH intensity enhancement, and the westward extension of the ridge point is strengthened. These observations can be explained by strengthened Hadley circulations, the dominant effects of the southward shift, and additional effects of the weakened ascending branch of the Walker circulation during warm climatological periods,which consequently lead to strengthened intensities, increased areas, and southward expansions of the WPSH in summer.展开更多
This study analyzes the variability of northern Eurasian snow cover（SC） in autumn and the impacts of atmospheric circulation changes. The region of large SC variability displays a southward shift from September to N...This study analyzes the variability of northern Eurasian snow cover（SC） in autumn and the impacts of atmospheric circulation changes. The region of large SC variability displays a southward shift from September to November, following the seasonal progression of the transition zones of surface air temperature（SAT）. The dominant pattern of SC variability in September and October features a zonal distribution, and that in November displays an obvious west-east contrast. Surface air cooling and snowfall increase are two factors for larger SC. The relative contribution of SAT and snowfall changes to SC, however, varies with the region and depends upon the season. The downward longwave radiation and atmospheric heat advection play important roles in SAT changes. Anomalous convergence of water vapor flux contributes to enhanced snowfall.The changes in downward longwave radiation are associated with those in atmospheric water content and column thickness.Changes in snowfall and the transport of atmospheric moisture determine the atmospheric moisture content in September and October, and the snowfall appears to be a main factor for atmospheric moisture change in November. These results indicate that atmospheric circulation changes play an important role in snow variability over northern Eurasia in autumn. Overall, the coupling between autumn Eurasian snow and atmospheric circulation may not be driven by external forcing.展开更多
This study employs Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) thermal infrared satellite data to compare land surface temperature of two cities in Ghana: Accra and Kumasi. These cities have human populations above 2 mill...This study employs Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) thermal infrared satellite data to compare land surface temperature of two cities in Ghana: Accra and Kumasi. These cities have human populations above 2 million and the corresponding anthropogenic impact on their environments significantly. Images were acquired with minimum cloud cover (<10%) from both dry and rainy seasons between December to August. Image preprocessing and rectification using ArcGIS 10.8 software w<span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ere</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> used. The shapefiles of Accra and Kumasi were used to extract from the full scenes to subset the study area. Thermal band data numbers were converted to Top of Atmospheric Spectral Radiance using radiance rescaling factors. To determine the density of green on a patch of land, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was calculated by using red and near-infrared bands </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">i.e</span></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">.</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Band 4 and Band 5. Land surface emissivity (LSE) was also calculated to determine the efficiency of transmitting thermal energy across the surface into the atmosphere. Results of the study show variation of temperatures between different locations in two urban areas. The study found Accra to have experienced higher and lower dry season and wet season temperatures, respectively. The temperature ranges corresponding to the dry and wet seasons were found to be 21.0985</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> to 46.1314</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, and, 18.3437</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> to 30.9693</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> respectively. Results of Kumasi also show a higher range of temperatures from 32.6986</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> to 19.1077<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> during the dry season. In the wet season, temperatures ranged from 26.4142</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> to </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">.898728</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. Among the reasons for the cities of Accra and Kumasi recorded higher than corresponding rural areas’ values can be attributed to the urban heat islands’ phenomenon.</span></span></span></span>展开更多
An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas（OCFS-C） is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation sin...An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas（OCFS-C） is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China＇s seas has been updated to（1/24）° from the global model with（1/2）°resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature（SST） data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth（MLD） and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores（SS） is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value（more than 0.90）. Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean.展开更多
Based on several images taken by. the NOAA -11 and - 12 advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR/2) during 1989-1993, and combined with a larger-scale of oceanographic investigation during 8-27 March 1992, som...Based on several images taken by. the NOAA -11 and - 12 advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR/2) during 1989-1993, and combined with a larger-scale of oceanographic investigation during 8-27 March 1992, some related questions of the physical oceanography in the South China As have been discussed. The results show that there were a more complementary action for the investigation and study on the physical oceanographic phenomena in the South China As using the satellite imageries and in-situ data, and the distribution and variation of the satellite-derived sea surface tempera- ture field in the northeast South China Sea basically mirrored the results obtained from in-situ investigation. Some of the large-scale and meso-scale marine phenomena varied with the long and medium periods, for instance, an anticyclonic meandering of the Kuroshio path when it flowed through the Bashi Channel, the win water with high temperature along the west coastline of Lain Island, the western and northern warmer water tongues off the southwest of Taiwan Island, China, as well as the thermal front along the continental shelf off Guangdong, were well presented in both the satellite imageries and in-situ data. Then, there the can be revealed some marine phenomena with a short period, or in the further large area using the satellite imageries, which will provide scientific basis for planning and carrying out the effective marine investigation. Finally, a map of surface circulation pattern in the northeast South China Sea in winter is sketched according to the comprehensive analysis of the satellite and in-situ data.展开更多
This study explores the linkage between summertime temperature fluctuations over midlatitude Eurasia and the preceding Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) by utilizing the squared norm of the temperature anomaly, the e...This study explores the linkage between summertime temperature fluctuations over midlatitude Eurasia and the preceding Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) by utilizing the squared norm of the temperature anomaly, the essential part of local eddy available potential energy, as a metric to quantify the temperature fluctuations with weather patterns on various timescales. By comparing groups of singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, we suggest a significant linkage between strong (weak) August 10-to-30-day temperature fluctuations over mid-west Asia and enhanced (decreased) Barents-Kara Sea ice in the previous February. We find that when the February SIC increases in the Barents-Kara Sea, a zonal dipolar pattern of SST anomalies appears in the Atlantic subpolar region and lasts from February into the summer months. Evidence suggests that in such a background state, the atmospheric circulation changes evidently from July to August, so that the August is characterized by an amplified meridional circulation over Eurasia, weakened westerlies, and high- pressure anomalies along the Arctic coast. Moreover, the 10-to-30-day wave becomes more active in the North Atlantic-Barents-Kara Sea-Central Asia regions and manifests a more evident southward propagation from the Barents- Kara Sea into the Ural region, which is responsible for the enhanced 10-to-30-day wave activity and temperature fluctuations in the region.展开更多
Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and in situ meteorological observations of daily precipitation in boreal summer from 1979 to 2008, the features of circulation anomalies have been investigated using the compo...Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and in situ meteorological observations of daily precipitation in boreal summer from 1979 to 2008, the features of circulation anomalies have been investigated using the composite analysis for the extreme events and non-extreme events of regional mean daily rainfall(RMDR) occurring over the midand lower- Yangtze valley(MLYV). The extreme RMDR(ERMDR) events are the events at and above the percentile99 in the rearranged time-series of the RMDR with ascending order of rainfall amount. The non-extreme RMDR events are those at the percentiles 90-85 and 80-75 separately. Our results suggest that the threshold value is 25 mm/day for the ERMDR at percentile 99. Precipitation at all the percentiles is found to occur more frequently in the Meiyu rainfall season in MLYV, and the ERMDR events have occurred with higher frequency since the 1990 s. For the percentiles-associated events, the MLYV is under the control of an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the mid- and lower- troposphere with vastly different anomalous circulation at higher levels. However, at both low and high levels, the ERMDR events-related anomalous circulation is stronger compared to that linked to the non-ERMDR events. The dominant sources of water vapor differ between the ERMDR and non-ERMDR events. During the ERMDR events plentiful water vapor is transported from the Bay of Bengal into the MLYV directly by divergence while there is distinctly increased water vapor from the South China Sea(SCS) in non-RMERMDR episodes. The diabatic heating rates < Q1>, < Q2> and< Q1>- < Q2> have their anomalous patterns and are consistent with each other for these percentiles but their strength decreases markedly with the drop of rainfall intensity. For the precipitation at percentiles 99 and 90-85, the sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the Pacific distribute positively(negatively) in the south(north), and are stronger when the ERMDR emerges, with little or no SSTA as the events at percentile 80-75 occur. Besides, these results suggest that the genesis of the ERMDR event is directly related to intense local circulation anomalies and the circulation anomalies over the Pacific and SCS in tropical to mid-latitudes, and probably linked with the Pacific SSTA closely while the non-ERMDR events are mainly associated with the anomalous circulation on a local basis. The findings here help understand and predict the happening of ERMDR events over the MLYV.展开更多
The spatial structure of the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)variability and the connection to atmospheric as well as radiative forcing during winter and summer for the 1979–2017 period are investigated.The interann...The spatial structure of the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)variability and the connection to atmospheric as well as radiative forcing during winter and summer for the 1979–2017 period are investigated.The interannual variability with different spatial characteristics of SIC in summer and winter is extracted using the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.The present study confirms that the atmospheric circulation has a strong influence on the SIC through both dynamic and thermodynamic processes,as the heat flux anomalies in summer are radiatively forced while those in winter contain both radiative and“circulation-induced”components.Thus,atmospheric fluctuations have an explicit and extensive influence to the SIC through complex mechanisms during both seasons.Moreover,analysis of a variety of atmospheric variables indicates that the primary mechanism about specific regional SIC patterns in Arctic marginal seas are different with special characteristics.展开更多
Potential links between the Arctic sea-ice concentration anomalies and extreme precipitation in China are explored. Associations behind these links can be explained by physical interpretations aided by visualisations ...Potential links between the Arctic sea-ice concentration anomalies and extreme precipitation in China are explored. Associations behind these links can be explained by physical interpretations aided by visualisations of temporarily lagged composites of variables such as atmospheric mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature. This relatively simple approach is verified by collectively examining already known links between the Arctic sea ice and rainfall in China. For example, similarities in the extreme summer rainfall response to Arctic sea-ice concentration anomalies either in winter （DJF） or in spring （MAM） are highlighted. Furthermore, new links between the Arctic sea ice and the extreme weather in India and Eurasia are proposed. The methodology developed in this study can be further applied to identify other remote impacts of the Arctic sea ice variability.展开更多
Winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)indexes from observations based on various winter durations are compared.Results show that there are significant differences in the interannual and decadal variations of these NAO...Winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)indexes from observations based on various winter durations are compared.Results show that there are significant differences in the interannual and decadal variations of these NAO indexes.For the same data source,a different definition of winter duration can lead to different signs of NAO index in some years,which mainly appear to be in the period of decadal phase transition.The different winter durations induce different cycles of the observation-based NAO.The longer the winter duration,the stronger the decadal variation.The NAO defined by different winter durations also can generate different descriptions of the NAO action centers,including the position and movement.The longer the winter duration,the more southerly action centers appear to be.The movement of the action centers affects not only site-based NAO indexes but also those defined by other methods,such as empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.The length of time used in EOF analysis has a great influence on the spatial pattern of the NAO mode,which results in a considerable difference between the corresponding NAO indexes.Regardless of which NAO index is used,the NAO-related SST anomalies show the same tripole pattern.The longer the winter duration,the more significant the relationship between the NAO and SST affected by the timescale of sea-air interaction.展开更多
This article examines the off season rainfall in northern coast Tanzania(NCT)including Zanzibar which occurred in January and February 2020(JF).Like the JF rainfalls of 2001,2004,2010,2016 and 2018,the JF(2020)rainfal...This article examines the off season rainfall in northern coast Tanzania(NCT)including Zanzibar which occurred in January and February 2020(JF).Like the JF rainfalls of 2001,2004,2010,2016 and 2018,the JF(2020)rainfall was more unique in damages including loss of lives,properties and infrastructures.The study used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to examine the cause of uniqueness of JF rainfall in 2001,2004,2010,2016,2018 and 2020 over NCT and Zanzibar.These datasets include monthly mean u,v wind at 850,700,500,and 200 mb;SSTs,mean sea level pressure(MSLP)anomalies,Dipole Mode Index(DMI),and monthly rainfall from NCT and Zanzibar stations.Datasets were processed and calculated into long term,seasonal,and monthly averages,indeed,Precipitation Index(PI)was calculated.Correlation analysis between the rainfall(December to January),SST,DMI and 850 mb wind vectors;and long-term percentage contribution of investigated parameters was calculated.Results revealed significant positive and negative correlations between JF rainfall,SSTs and DMI.Moreover,JFs of 2004 and 2016 had higher rainfalls of 443 mm with percentage contribution of up to 406%,while January and February,2020 had the highest of 269.1 and 101.1mm in Zanzibar and 295 and 146.1 mm over and NCT areas,with highest January long-term rainfall contribution of 356%in Zanzibar and 526%over NCT.The DJF(2019/20)had the highest rainfall record of 649.5 mm in Zanzibar contributing up to 286%,while JF 2000 rainfall had a good spatial and temporal distribution over most NCT areas.JF,2020 rainfall had impacts of more than 20 people died in Lindi and several infrastructures including Kiyegeya Bridge in Morogoro were damaged.Conclusively,more research works on understanding the dynamics of wet and dry JF seasons should be conducted.展开更多
The seasonal response of surface wind speed to sea surface temperature (SST) change in the Northern Hemisphere was investigated using 10 years (2002-2011) high-resolution satellite observations and reanalysis data. Th...The seasonal response of surface wind speed to sea surface temperature (SST) change in the Northern Hemisphere was investigated using 10 years (2002-2011) high-resolution satellite observations and reanalysis data. The results showed that correlation between surface wind speed perturbations and SST perturbations exhibits remarkable seasonal variation, with more positive correlation is stronger in the cold seasons than in the warm seasons. This seasonality in a positive correlation between SST and surface wind speed is attributable primarily to seasonal changes of oceanic and atmospheric background conditions in frontal regions. The mean SST gradient and the prevailing surface winds are strong in winter and weak in summer. Additionally, the eddy-induced response of surface wind speed is stronger in winter than in summer, although the locations and numbers of mesoscale eddies do not show obvious seasonal features. The response of surface wind speed is apparently due to stability and mixing within the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), modulated by SST perturbations. In the cold seasons, the stronger positive (negative) SST perturbations are easier to increase (decrease) the MABL height and trigger (suppress) momentum vertical mixing, contributing to the positive correlation between SST and surface wind speed. In comparison, SST perturbations are relatively weak in the warm seasons, resulting in a weak response of surface wind speed to SST changes. This result holds for each individual region with energetic eddy activity in the Northern Hemisphere.展开更多
The interannual variations of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks over the Equatorial Pacific and their relations with the SST anomalies are studied using ECMWF reanalysis data from 1979 to 1993. It is found b...The interannual variations of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks over the Equatorial Pacific and their relations with the SST anomalies are studied using ECMWF reanalysis data from 1979 to 1993. It is found by singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis that the region in the tropical Pacific with high positive correlation between the vertically integrated heat source <Q1> anomaly and the SST anomaly, and between the vertically integrated moisture sink <Q2> anomaly and the SST anomaly, is mainly located in a long and narrow belt to the east of 170 °E between 5 °S and 5 °N. The analysis of the vertical structure of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks shows that the interannual variations of Q1, Q2 and SST in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are strongly and positively correlated in the whole troposphere except the bottom (962.5 hPa) and the top (85 hPa) layers. However, in the western Pacific, the interannual variations of Q1 below 850 hPa is negatively related to the SST. The correlation coefficient at the level 962.5 hPa reaches even –0.59. In other layers the positive correlation between the interannual variations of Q1, Q2 and the SST are weak in the western Pacific.展开更多
基金the CAS Key Project (KZCXZ-203)the NSFC Project (No. 49735160 and No.40075020)IAP Innovation Fund (No. 8-1307).
文摘The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it reached a lower stage after 1980/s. Correlation analysis reveals that EASM is closely related with the global atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). The differences between the weak and strong stage of EASM shows that, the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and North Africa is sharply weakened, in the meantime, the westerlies in high latitudes and the trade-wind over the tropical ocean are also changed significantly. Over the most regions south of the northern subtropics, both air temperature in the lower troposphere and SST tended to rise compared with the strong stage of EASM. It is also revealed that the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean plays a key role in interannual to interdecadal variation of EASM, most probably, the subtropical indian Ocean is more important. On the other hand, the ENSO event is less related to EASM at least during the concerned period.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB428604)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175042 and 41225018)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (Grant No. lzujbky2012-k04)
文摘Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model,we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature （SST）.The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex.In the model runs,global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere,while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere.The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere.Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves,the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes.Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation （BDC）,but the gradient increases of SST between 60°S and 60°N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling,with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase.
文摘This study is focused on climate-induced variation of sea level in Stockholm during 1873-1995. After the effect of the land uplift, is removed, the residual is characterized and related to large-scale temperature and atmospheric circulation. The residual shows an overall upward trend, although this result depends on the uplift rate used. However, the seasonal distribution of the trend is uneven. There are even two months （June and August） that show a negative trend. The significant trend in August may be linked to fresh water input that is controlled by precipitation. The influence of the atmospheric conditions on the sea level is mainly manifested through zonal winds, vorticity and temperature. While the wind is important in the period January-May, the vorticity plays a main role during June and December. A successful linear multiple-regression model linking the climatic variables （zonal winds, vorticity and mean air temperature during the previous two months） and the sea level is established for each month. An independent verification of the model shows that it has considerable skill in simulating the variability.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40706011)the Key Program of Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX1-YW-12)+2 种基金the National Science Foundation of China (Nos. 405201 and 40074)the International Cooperative Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology (No. 2006DFB21630)by the Open Foundation of Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling (MASNUM)
文摘Based on an empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature （OISST） data in the South China Sea （SCS） after removing the climatological mean and trends of SST, over the period of January 1982 to October 2003, the corresponding TCF correlates best with the Dipole Mode Index （DMI）, Nino1＋2, Nino3.4, Nino3, and Niflo4 indices with time lags of 10, 3, 6, 5, and 6 months, respectively. Thus, a statistical hindcasts in the prediction model are based on a canonical correlation analysis （CCA） model using the above indices as predictors spanning from 1993/1994 to 2003/2004 with a 1-12 month lead time after the canonical variants are calculated, using data from the training periods from January 1982 to December1992. The forecast model is successful and steady when the lead times are 1-12 months. The SCS warm event in 1998 was successfully predicted with lead times from 1-12 months irrespective of the strength or time extent. The prediction ability for SSTA is lower during weak ENSO years, in which other local factors should be also considered as local effects play a relatively important role in these years. We designed the two forecast models： one using both DMI and Nino indices and the other using only Nino indices without DMI, and compared the forecast accuracies of the two cases. The spatial distributions of forecast accuracies show different confidence areas. By turning off the DMI, the forecast accuracy is lower in the coastal areas off the Philippines in the SCS, suggesting some teleconnection may occur with the Indian Ocean in this area. The highest forecast accuracies occur when the forecast interval is five months long without using the DMI, while using both of Nino indices and DMI, the highest accuracies occur when the forecast interval time is eight months, suggesting that the Nino indices dominate the interannual variability of SST anomalies in the SCS. Meanwhile the forecast accuracy is evaluated over an independent test period of more than 11 years （1993/94 to October 2004） by comparing the model performance with a simple prediction strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies over a 1-12 month lead time （the persisted prediction）. Predictions based on the CCA model show a significant improvement over the persisted prediction, especially with an increased lead time （longer than 3 months）. The forecast model performs steadily and the forecast accuracy, i.e., the correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SSTA in the SCS are about 0.5 in most middle and southern SCS areas, when the thresholds are greater than the 95% confidence level. For all 1 to 12 month lead time forecasts, the root mean square errors have a standard deviation of about 0.2. The seasonal differences in the prediction performance for the 1-12 month lead time are also examined.
文摘With correlation analysis and factor analysis methods, the effects of preceding Pacific SSTs on subtropical high indexes of main raining seasons are discussed. The results of correlation analysis show that the effects of SSTs on five subtropical high indexes differ in seasons and regions. The variation of SSTs mostly affects the area and intensity indexes of the subtropical high, followed by the western ridge index, and the effect on the ridge line index is more remarkable than on the north boundary index. The results of factor analysis reveals that the first common factor of SST of each season reflected mainly the inverse relation of SSTs variation between the central and eastern part of equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific, which correlates better with the subtropical high indexes in the main raining seasons than other common factors of SST. The analysis of interdecadal variation indicated that the variation of SSTs was conducive to the emergence of the La Ni?a event before the end of 1970s, such that in the summer the subtropical high is likely to be weaker and smaller and located eastward and northward. After the 1980s, the opposite characteristics prevailed.
基金Supported by the China’s National Key Research and Development Projects(No.2016YFA0601803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41490641,41521091,U1606402)the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(No.2017ASKJ01)
文摘The co-variation of surface wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST) over the Gulf Stream frontal region is investigated using high-resolution satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis data. Results show that the pattern of positive SST-surface wind speed correlations is anchored by strong SST gradient and marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) height front, with active warm and cold-ocean eddies around. The MABL has an obvious transitional structure along the strong SST front, with greater (lesser) heights over the north (south) side. The significant positive SST-surface wind-speed perturbation correlations are mostly found over both strong warm and cold eddies. The surface wind speed increases (decreases) about 0.32 (0.41) m/s and the MABL elevates (drops) approximate 55 (54) m per 1℃ of SST perturbation induced by warm (cold) eddies. The response of the surface wind speed to SST perturbations over the mesoscale eddies is mainly attributed to the momentum vertical mixing in the MABL, which is confirmed by the linear relationships between the downwind (crosswind) SST gradient and wind divergence (curl).
基金The Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No. XDA05090404Open Fund of the key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves,Chinese Academy of Scineces under No. KLOCAW1201The Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract Nos KZCX1-YW-12 and KZCX2-YW-Q11-02
文摘The global surface temperature change since the mid-19th century has caused general concern and intensive study. However, long-term changes in the marginal seas, including the seas east of China, are not well understood because long-term observations are sparse and, even when they exist, they are over limited areas. Preliminary results on the long-term variability of sea surface temperature （SST） in summer and winter in the seas east of China during the period of 1957-2001 are reported using the Ocean Science Database of Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the coastal hydrological station in situ and satellite data. The results show well-defined warming trends in the study area. However warming and cooling trends vary from decade to decade, with steady and rapid warming trends after the 1980s and complicated spatial patterns. The distribution of SST variation is intricate and more blurred in the areas far away from the Kuroshio system. Both historical and satellite data sets show significant warming trends after 1985. The warming trends are larger and spread to wider areas in winter than in summer, which means decrease in the seasonal cycle of SST probably linked with recently observed increase of the tropical zooplankton species in the region. Spatial structures of the SST trends are roughly consistent with the circulation pattern especially in winter when the meridional SST gradients are larger, suggesting that a horizontal advection may play an important role in the long-term SST variability in winter.
基金National Key Basic Research and Development Planning Program of China(Program 973)(2013CB430202)China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(Major Projects)(GYHY201506001-1)National Natural Science Foundation of China(91337109,41305080)
文摘By adopting characteristic index data for the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) from the National Climate Center of China, U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) sea surface temperature(SST) data, we studied the WPSH variability considering the background of climate warming by using a Gaussian filter, moving averages, correlation analysis, and synthetic analysis. Our results show that with climate warming over the past 60 years, significant changes in the WPSH include its enlarged area, strengthened intensity,westward extended ridge point and southward expanded southern boundary, as well as enhanced interannual fluctuations in all these indices. The western ridge point of the WPSH consistently varies with temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere, but the location of the ridgeline varies independently. The intensity and area of the WPSH were both significantly increased in the late 1980 s. Specifically, the western ridge point started to significantly extend westward in the early 1990 s, and the associated interannual variability had a significant increase in the late 1990 s; in addition, the ridgeline was swaying along the north-south-north direction, and the corresponding variability was also greatly enhanced in the late 1990 s. With climate warming, the SST increase becomes more weakly correlated with the WPSH intensity enhancement but more strongly correlated with the westward extension of the ridge point in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean in winter, corresponding to an expanding WPSH in space. In the northern Pacific in winter, the SST decrease has a weaker correlation with the southerly location of the ridgeline but also a stronger correlation with the westward extension of the ridge point. In the tropical western Pacific in winter, the correlations of the SST decrease with the WPSH intensity enhancement, and the westward extension of the ridge point is strengthened. These observations can be explained by strengthened Hadley circulations, the dominant effects of the southward shift, and additional effects of the weakened ascending branch of the Walker circulation during warm climatological periods,which consequently lead to strengthened intensities, increased areas, and southward expansions of the WPSH in summer.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2014CB953902)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41530425, 41275081 and 41475081)
文摘This study analyzes the variability of northern Eurasian snow cover（SC） in autumn and the impacts of atmospheric circulation changes. The region of large SC variability displays a southward shift from September to November, following the seasonal progression of the transition zones of surface air temperature（SAT）. The dominant pattern of SC variability in September and October features a zonal distribution, and that in November displays an obvious west-east contrast. Surface air cooling and snowfall increase are two factors for larger SC. The relative contribution of SAT and snowfall changes to SC, however, varies with the region and depends upon the season. The downward longwave radiation and atmospheric heat advection play important roles in SAT changes. Anomalous convergence of water vapor flux contributes to enhanced snowfall.The changes in downward longwave radiation are associated with those in atmospheric water content and column thickness.Changes in snowfall and the transport of atmospheric moisture determine the atmospheric moisture content in September and October, and the snowfall appears to be a main factor for atmospheric moisture change in November. These results indicate that atmospheric circulation changes play an important role in snow variability over northern Eurasia in autumn. Overall, the coupling between autumn Eurasian snow and atmospheric circulation may not be driven by external forcing.
文摘This study employs Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) thermal infrared satellite data to compare land surface temperature of two cities in Ghana: Accra and Kumasi. These cities have human populations above 2 million and the corresponding anthropogenic impact on their environments significantly. Images were acquired with minimum cloud cover (<10%) from both dry and rainy seasons between December to August. Image preprocessing and rectification using ArcGIS 10.8 software w<span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ere</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> used. The shapefiles of Accra and Kumasi were used to extract from the full scenes to subset the study area. Thermal band data numbers were converted to Top of Atmospheric Spectral Radiance using radiance rescaling factors. To determine the density of green on a patch of land, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was calculated by using red and near-infrared bands </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">i.e</span></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">.</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Band 4 and Band 5. Land surface emissivity (LSE) was also calculated to determine the efficiency of transmitting thermal energy across the surface into the atmosphere. Results of the study show variation of temperatures between different locations in two urban areas. The study found Accra to have experienced higher and lower dry season and wet season temperatures, respectively. The temperature ranges corresponding to the dry and wet seasons were found to be 21.0985</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> to 46.1314</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, and, 18.3437</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> to 30.9693</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> respectively. Results of Kumasi also show a higher range of temperatures from 32.6986</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> to 19.1077<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> during the dry season. In the wet season, temperatures ranged from 26.4142</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> to </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">.898728</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:Simsun;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">o</span></span></span>C</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. Among the reasons for the cities of Accra and Kumasi recorded higher than corresponding rural areas’ values can be attributed to the urban heat islands’ phenomenon.</span></span></span></span>
基金China-Korea Cooperation Project on the development of oceanic monitoring and prediction system on nuclear safetythe Project of the National Programme on Global Change and Air-sea Interaction under contract No.GASI-03-IPOVAI-05
文摘An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas（OCFS-C） is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China＇s seas has been updated to（1/24）° from the global model with（1/2）°resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature（SST） data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth（MLD） and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores（SS） is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value（more than 0.90）. Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean.
基金This project was supported by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences-Research on the China Seashore Circulatio
文摘Based on several images taken by. the NOAA -11 and - 12 advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR/2) during 1989-1993, and combined with a larger-scale of oceanographic investigation during 8-27 March 1992, some related questions of the physical oceanography in the South China As have been discussed. The results show that there were a more complementary action for the investigation and study on the physical oceanographic phenomena in the South China As using the satellite imageries and in-situ data, and the distribution and variation of the satellite-derived sea surface tempera- ture field in the northeast South China Sea basically mirrored the results obtained from in-situ investigation. Some of the large-scale and meso-scale marine phenomena varied with the long and medium periods, for instance, an anticyclonic meandering of the Kuroshio path when it flowed through the Bashi Channel, the win water with high temperature along the west coastline of Lain Island, the western and northern warmer water tongues off the southwest of Taiwan Island, China, as well as the thermal front along the continental shelf off Guangdong, were well presented in both the satellite imageries and in-situ data. Then, there the can be revealed some marine phenomena with a short period, or in the further large area using the satellite imageries, which will provide scientific basis for planning and carrying out the effective marine investigation. Finally, a map of surface circulation pattern in the northeast South China Sea in winter is sketched according to the comprehensive analysis of the satellite and in-situ data.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program under Grant 2022YFE0106900the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant XDA2010030804the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.41621005.
文摘This study explores the linkage between summertime temperature fluctuations over midlatitude Eurasia and the preceding Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) by utilizing the squared norm of the temperature anomaly, the essential part of local eddy available potential energy, as a metric to quantify the temperature fluctuations with weather patterns on various timescales. By comparing groups of singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, we suggest a significant linkage between strong (weak) August 10-to-30-day temperature fluctuations over mid-west Asia and enhanced (decreased) Barents-Kara Sea ice in the previous February. We find that when the February SIC increases in the Barents-Kara Sea, a zonal dipolar pattern of SST anomalies appears in the Atlantic subpolar region and lasts from February into the summer months. Evidence suggests that in such a background state, the atmospheric circulation changes evidently from July to August, so that the August is characterized by an amplified meridional circulation over Eurasia, weakened westerlies, and high- pressure anomalies along the Arctic coast. Moreover, the 10-to-30-day wave becomes more active in the North Atlantic-Barents-Kara Sea-Central Asia regions and manifests a more evident southward propagation from the Barents- Kara Sea into the Ural region, which is responsible for the enhanced 10-to-30-day wave activity and temperature fluctuations in the region.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41330425)National Key Technology R&D Program(2007BAC29B02)"Qinglan"Project of Jiangsu Province for Cultivating Research Teams
文摘Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and in situ meteorological observations of daily precipitation in boreal summer from 1979 to 2008, the features of circulation anomalies have been investigated using the composite analysis for the extreme events and non-extreme events of regional mean daily rainfall(RMDR) occurring over the midand lower- Yangtze valley(MLYV). The extreme RMDR(ERMDR) events are the events at and above the percentile99 in the rearranged time-series of the RMDR with ascending order of rainfall amount. The non-extreme RMDR events are those at the percentiles 90-85 and 80-75 separately. Our results suggest that the threshold value is 25 mm/day for the ERMDR at percentile 99. Precipitation at all the percentiles is found to occur more frequently in the Meiyu rainfall season in MLYV, and the ERMDR events have occurred with higher frequency since the 1990 s. For the percentiles-associated events, the MLYV is under the control of an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the mid- and lower- troposphere with vastly different anomalous circulation at higher levels. However, at both low and high levels, the ERMDR events-related anomalous circulation is stronger compared to that linked to the non-ERMDR events. The dominant sources of water vapor differ between the ERMDR and non-ERMDR events. During the ERMDR events plentiful water vapor is transported from the Bay of Bengal into the MLYV directly by divergence while there is distinctly increased water vapor from the South China Sea(SCS) in non-RMERMDR episodes. The diabatic heating rates < Q1>, < Q2> and< Q1>- < Q2> have their anomalous patterns and are consistent with each other for these percentiles but their strength decreases markedly with the drop of rainfall intensity. For the precipitation at percentiles 99 and 90-85, the sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the Pacific distribute positively(negatively) in the south(north), and are stronger when the ERMDR emerges, with little or no SSTA as the events at percentile 80-75 occur. Besides, these results suggest that the genesis of the ERMDR event is directly related to intense local circulation anomalies and the circulation anomalies over the Pacific and SCS in tropical to mid-latitudes, and probably linked with the Pacific SSTA closely while the non-ERMDR events are mainly associated with the anomalous circulation on a local basis. The findings here help understand and predict the happening of ERMDR events over the MLYV.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41406215 and 41706194a fund provided by the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technologythe National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No.U1606401.
文摘The spatial structure of the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)variability and the connection to atmospheric as well as radiative forcing during winter and summer for the 1979–2017 period are investigated.The interannual variability with different spatial characteristics of SIC in summer and winter is extracted using the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.The present study confirms that the atmospheric circulation has a strong influence on the SIC through both dynamic and thermodynamic processes,as the heat flux anomalies in summer are radiatively forced while those in winter contain both radiative and“circulation-induced”components.Thus,atmospheric fluctuations have an explicit and extensive influence to the SIC through complex mechanisms during both seasons.Moreover,analysis of a variety of atmospheric variables indicates that the primary mechanism about specific regional SIC patterns in Arctic marginal seas are different with special characteristics.
基金supported by the Academy of Finland (contract 259537)
文摘Potential links between the Arctic sea-ice concentration anomalies and extreme precipitation in China are explored. Associations behind these links can be explained by physical interpretations aided by visualisations of temporarily lagged composites of variables such as atmospheric mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature. This relatively simple approach is verified by collectively examining already known links between the Arctic sea ice and rainfall in China. For example, similarities in the extreme summer rainfall response to Arctic sea-ice concentration anomalies either in winter （DJF） or in spring （MAM） are highlighted. Furthermore, new links between the Arctic sea ice and the extreme weather in India and Eurasia are proposed. The methodology developed in this study can be further applied to identify other remote impacts of the Arctic sea ice variability.
基金supported jointly by the National Key Research and Development Program of China [grant number 2016YFB02008001]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41530426]
文摘Winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)indexes from observations based on various winter durations are compared.Results show that there are significant differences in the interannual and decadal variations of these NAO indexes.For the same data source,a different definition of winter duration can lead to different signs of NAO index in some years,which mainly appear to be in the period of decadal phase transition.The different winter durations induce different cycles of the observation-based NAO.The longer the winter duration,the stronger the decadal variation.The NAO defined by different winter durations also can generate different descriptions of the NAO action centers,including the position and movement.The longer the winter duration,the more southerly action centers appear to be.The movement of the action centers affects not only site-based NAO indexes but also those defined by other methods,such as empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.The length of time used in EOF analysis has a great influence on the spatial pattern of the NAO mode,which results in a considerable difference between the corresponding NAO indexes.Regardless of which NAO index is used,the NAO-related SST anomalies show the same tripole pattern.The longer the winter duration,the more significant the relationship between the NAO and SST affected by the timescale of sea-air interaction.
文摘This article examines the off season rainfall in northern coast Tanzania(NCT)including Zanzibar which occurred in January and February 2020(JF).Like the JF rainfalls of 2001,2004,2010,2016 and 2018,the JF(2020)rainfall was more unique in damages including loss of lives,properties and infrastructures.The study used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to examine the cause of uniqueness of JF rainfall in 2001,2004,2010,2016,2018 and 2020 over NCT and Zanzibar.These datasets include monthly mean u,v wind at 850,700,500,and 200 mb;SSTs,mean sea level pressure(MSLP)anomalies,Dipole Mode Index(DMI),and monthly rainfall from NCT and Zanzibar stations.Datasets were processed and calculated into long term,seasonal,and monthly averages,indeed,Precipitation Index(PI)was calculated.Correlation analysis between the rainfall(December to January),SST,DMI and 850 mb wind vectors;and long-term percentage contribution of investigated parameters was calculated.Results revealed significant positive and negative correlations between JF rainfall,SSTs and DMI.Moreover,JFs of 2004 and 2016 had higher rainfalls of 443 mm with percentage contribution of up to 406%,while January and February,2020 had the highest of 269.1 and 101.1mm in Zanzibar and 295 and 146.1 mm over and NCT areas,with highest January long-term rainfall contribution of 356%in Zanzibar and 526%over NCT.The DJF(2019/20)had the highest rainfall record of 649.5 mm in Zanzibar contributing up to 286%,while JF 2000 rainfall had a good spatial and temporal distribution over most NCT areas.JF,2020 rainfall had impacts of more than 20 people died in Lindi and several infrastructures including Kiyegeya Bridge in Morogoro were damaged.Conclusively,more research works on understanding the dynamics of wet and dry JF seasons should be conducted.
基金Supported by the China’s National Key Research and Development Projects(No.2016YFA0601803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41490641,41521091,U1606402)the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(No.2017ASKJ01)
文摘The seasonal response of surface wind speed to sea surface temperature (SST) change in the Northern Hemisphere was investigated using 10 years (2002-2011) high-resolution satellite observations and reanalysis data. The results showed that correlation between surface wind speed perturbations and SST perturbations exhibits remarkable seasonal variation, with more positive correlation is stronger in the cold seasons than in the warm seasons. This seasonality in a positive correlation between SST and surface wind speed is attributable primarily to seasonal changes of oceanic and atmospheric background conditions in frontal regions. The mean SST gradient and the prevailing surface winds are strong in winter and weak in summer. Additionally, the eddy-induced response of surface wind speed is stronger in winter than in summer, although the locations and numbers of mesoscale eddies do not show obvious seasonal features. The response of surface wind speed is apparently due to stability and mixing within the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), modulated by SST perturbations. In the cold seasons, the stronger positive (negative) SST perturbations are easier to increase (decrease) the MABL height and trigger (suppress) momentum vertical mixing, contributing to the positive correlation between SST and surface wind speed. In comparison, SST perturbations are relatively weak in the warm seasons, resulting in a weak response of surface wind speed to SST changes. This result holds for each individual region with energetic eddy activity in the Northern Hemisphere.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (40275026) Part One of National Key Fundamental Research and Development Planning Project (G1998040900)
文摘The interannual variations of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks over the Equatorial Pacific and their relations with the SST anomalies are studied using ECMWF reanalysis data from 1979 to 1993. It is found by singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis that the region in the tropical Pacific with high positive correlation between the vertically integrated heat source <Q1> anomaly and the SST anomaly, and between the vertically integrated moisture sink <Q2> anomaly and the SST anomaly, is mainly located in a long and narrow belt to the east of 170 °E between 5 °S and 5 °N. The analysis of the vertical structure of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks shows that the interannual variations of Q1, Q2 and SST in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are strongly and positively correlated in the whole troposphere except the bottom (962.5 hPa) and the top (85 hPa) layers. However, in the western Pacific, the interannual variations of Q1 below 850 hPa is negatively related to the SST. The correlation coefficient at the level 962.5 hPa reaches even –0.59. In other layers the positive correlation between the interannual variations of Q1, Q2 and the SST are weak in the western Pacific.
