Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional cli-mates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land...Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional cli-mates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model forthe simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climatescenarios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climateB2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, theHaihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production ascompared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in theflood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.展开更多
A landslide susceptibility mapping study was performed using dynamic hillslope hydrology. The modified infinite slope stability model that directly includes vadose zone soil moisture(SM) was applied at Cleveland Corra...A landslide susceptibility mapping study was performed using dynamic hillslope hydrology. The modified infinite slope stability model that directly includes vadose zone soil moisture(SM) was applied at Cleveland Corral, California, US and Krishnabhir, Dhading, Nepal. The variable infiltration capacity(VIC-3L) model simulated vadose zone soil moisture and the wetness index hydrologic model simulated groundwater(GW). The GW model predictions had a 75% NASH-Sutcliffe efficiency when compared to California's in-situ GW measurements. The model performed best during the wet season. Using predicted GW and VIC-3L vadose zone SM, the developed landslide susceptibility maps showed very good agreement with mapped landslides at each study region. Previous quasi-dynamic model predictions of Nepal's hazardous areas during extreme rainfall events were enhanced to improve the spatial characterization and provide the timing of hazardous conditions.展开更多
基金the Knowledge Innovation Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-SW-317),the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 90411007 and 40275023), and the Hundred Talents Program ofChinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional cli-mates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model forthe simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climatescenarios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climateB2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, theHaihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production ascompared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in theflood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.
基金NASA’s research funding through Earth System Science Fellowship, Grant No: NNG05GP66H, for this research
文摘A landslide susceptibility mapping study was performed using dynamic hillslope hydrology. The modified infinite slope stability model that directly includes vadose zone soil moisture(SM) was applied at Cleveland Corral, California, US and Krishnabhir, Dhading, Nepal. The variable infiltration capacity(VIC-3L) model simulated vadose zone soil moisture and the wetness index hydrologic model simulated groundwater(GW). The GW model predictions had a 75% NASH-Sutcliffe efficiency when compared to California's in-situ GW measurements. The model performed best during the wet season. Using predicted GW and VIC-3L vadose zone SM, the developed landslide susceptibility maps showed very good agreement with mapped landslides at each study region. Previous quasi-dynamic model predictions of Nepal's hazardous areas during extreme rainfall events were enhanced to improve the spatial characterization and provide the timing of hazardous conditions.
