Tuberculosis is one of the most important infectious diseases in our country. Also nosocomial infection by tuberculosis can occur, which can be prevented by implementing simple, effective and affordable tuberculosis i...Tuberculosis is one of the most important infectious diseases in our country. Also nosocomial infection by tuberculosis can occur, which can be prevented by implementing simple, effective and affordable tuberculosis infection control measures in health care facilities. To evaluate the effectiveness of infection control measures, such study was planned. Questionnaires were administered to all doctors, healthcare workers and servants working in outdoor and indoor department of tuberculosis at tertiary care hospital to assess the knowledge, attitudes and practices on prevention and control of Tuberculosis infection. A scoring system was devised to grade them. One-time audit was also done in outpatient and inpatient department. The analysis showed scoring of poor for doctors, good for nurses and poor forward aids. There is a need to develop strategies for training of health care workers on regular basis in order to reduce the incidence of nosocomial infections. Audit result shows a good level of environmental control measures. Better knowledge, attitude and practices are helpful for the prevention and control of tuberculosis. Also environmental control measures are helpful to prevent infection.展开更多
The aim of this study was to estimate the association between occupational, environmental, behavioral risk factors, and active pulmonary tuberculosis（PTB） among coal workers＇ pneumoconiosis（CWP） patients. A match...The aim of this study was to estimate the association between occupational, environmental, behavioral risk factors, and active pulmonary tuberculosis（PTB） among coal workers＇ pneumoconiosis（CWP） patients. A matched case-control study was conducted in 86 CWP patients with active PTB and 86 CWP controls without TB. A standardized questionnaire was used for risk factors assessment. Conditioned logistic regression analysis was used to identify associations between the risk factors and active PTB among CWP patients. The results showed that the stage of CWP, poor workplace ventilation, family history of TB, and exposure to TB were independent risk factors for active PTB in patients with CWP with which recommendations for improving work environments, and for case finding activities in patients with CWP could be made.展开更多
With the rapid pace of population ageing,tuberculosis(TB)in the elderly increasingly becomes a public health challenge.Despite the increasing burden and high risks for TB in the elderly,targeted strategy has not been ...With the rapid pace of population ageing,tuberculosis(TB)in the elderly increasingly becomes a public health challenge.Despite the increasing burden and high risks for TB in the elderly,targeted strategy has not been well understood and evaluated.We undertook a scoping review to identify current TB strategies,research and policy gaps in the elderly and summarized the results within a strategic framework towards End TB targets.Databases of Embase,MEDLINE,Global health and EBM reviews were searched for original studies,review articles,and policy papers published in English between January 1990 and December 2015.Articles examining TB strategy,program,guideline or intervention in the elderly from public health perspective were included.Nineteen articles met the inclusion criteria.Most of them were qualitative studies,issued in high-and middle-income countries and after 2000.To break the chain of TB transmission and reactivation in the elderly,infection control,interventions of avoiding delay in diagnosis and containment are essential for preventing transmission,especially in elderly institutions and aged immigrants;screening of latent TB infection and preventive therapy had effective impacts on reducing the risk of reactivation and should be used less reluctantly in older people;optimizing early case-finding with a high index of suspicion,systematic screening for prioritized high-risk groups,initial empirical and adequate follow-up treatment with close monitoring and evaluation,as well as enhanced programmatic management are fundamental pillars for active TB elimination.Evaluation of TB epidemiology,risk factors,impacts and cost-effectiveness of interventions,adopting accurate and rapid diagnostic tools,shorter and less toxic preventive therapy,are critical issues for developing strategy in the elderly towards End TB targets.TB control strategies in the elderly were comprehensively mapped in a causal link pathway.The framework and principals identified in this study will help to evaluate and improve current program,develop targeted strategy,as well as raise more discussions on the research priority settings and policy transitions.Given the scarceness of policy and evaluated interventions,as well as the unawareness of shifting TB epidemiology and strategy especially in developing countries,the increasing need of a ready TB program for the elderly warrants further research.展开更多
Background There could be various stakeholders who influencing multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB)policy development and implementation,yet their attributes and roles remain unclear in practice.This study aimed t...Background There could be various stakeholders who influencing multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB)policy development and implementation,yet their attributes and roles remain unclear in practice.This study aimed to identify key stakeholders in the process of policy-making for MDR-TB control and prevention and to analyse the attributes and relationships of the stakeholders,providing evidence for further policy research on MDR-TB control.Methods This study was conducted from October 2018 to March 2019 and applied the stakeholder analysis guidelines and domestic stakeholder analysis.An initial candidate stakeholder list was developed by policy scanning.Ten experts were invited to identify these candidate stakeholders.The major attribute of these stakeholders were analysed using the Michell scoring method.Based on these results,the intertwined relationships among groups of stakeholders were analysed and mapped through a systematic scan of the policy and literature on MDR-TB control,as well as information obtained from the interviews.Results A list of 21 types of candidate stakeholders was developed after a literature review and policy scanning,of which 11 received 100%approval.After expert evaluation and identification(the total expert authority was 0.80),19 categories of stakeholders were approved and included in the stakeholder analysis.We categorized all of the stakeholders into three groups:(i)definitive stakeholders who are mainly involved in administrative departments and the Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC);(ii)expectant stakeholders who are mainly involved with MDR-TB patients,clinical departments of TB hospitals at different levels,community health care facilities,prefectural CDC and charity organizations;and(iii)latent stakeholders who mainly involved family members and neighbours of MDR-TB patients and TB related products manufacturers.Government departments and higher-level CDCs have strong decision-making power in developing MDR-TB control policies whereas the recommendations from service providers and the concerns of patients should be considered.Conclusions The MDR-TB prevention system was a multistakeholder cooperation system that was mainly led by government stakeholders.Enhancing communications with front-line service providers and patients on their unmet needs and evidence-based suggestions would highly benefit policy-making of MDR-TB prevention and control.展开更多
Infection prevention and control(IPC)measures to reduce transmission of drug-resistant and drug-sensitive tuberculosis(TB)in health facilities are well described but poorly implemented.The implementation of TB IPC has...Infection prevention and control(IPC)measures to reduce transmission of drug-resistant and drug-sensitive tuberculosis(TB)in health facilities are well described but poorly implemented.The implementation of TB IPC has been assessed primarily through quantitative and structured approaches that treat administrative,environmental,and personal protective measures as discrete entities.We present an on-going project entitled Umoya omuhle(“good air”),conducted in two provinces of South Africa,that adopts an interdisciplinary,‘whole systems’approach to problem analysis and intervention development for reducing nosocomial transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis(Mtb)through improved IPC.We suggest that TB IPC represents a complex intervention that is delivered within a dynamic context shaped by policy guidelines,health facility space,infrastructure,organisation of care,and management culture.Methods drawn from epidemiology,anthropology,and health policy and systems research enable rich contextual analysis of how nosocomial Mtb transmission occurs,as well as opportunities to address the problem holistically.A‘whole systems’approach can identify leverage points within the health facility infrastructure and organisation of care that can inform the design of interventions to reduce the risk of nosocomial Mtb transmission.展开更多
Introduction Characterized as persistent and progressive pulmonary function declining,chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can be accompanied by a systemic inflammatory response.A variety of psychiatric and so...Introduction Characterized as persistent and progressive pulmonary function declining,chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can be accompanied by a systemic inflammatory response.A variety of psychiatric and somatic comorbidities can occur to the patients,such as depression,nutritional disorders,cardiovascular disease,and lung cancer.It is imposing great impacts on the quality of patients' life.In 2010 alone,the economic burden of COPD in the world was as high as 2.1 trillion dollars [1].The high prevalence,mortality,and morbidity have made this disease a major public health problem in socio-economic development with a rapidly aging population in China.展开更多
Background:Tuberculosis(TB)causedMycobacterium tuberculosis(M.tb)is one of infectious disease that lead a large number of morbidity and mortality all over the world.Although no reliable evidence has been found,it is c...Background:Tuberculosis(TB)causedMycobacterium tuberculosis(M.tb)is one of infectious disease that lead a large number of morbidity and mortality all over the world.Although no reliable evidence has been found,it is considered that combining chemotherapeutic drugs with Chinese herbs can significantly improves the cure rate and the clinical therapeutic effect.Methods:Multi-drug resistant pulmonary tuberculosis(MDR-PTB,n=258)patients with Qi-yin deficiency syndrome will be randomly assigned into a treatment group(n=172)or control/placebo group(n=86).The treatment group will receive the chemotherapeutic drugs combined with Chinese herbs granules(1+3 granules),while the control group will receive the chemotherapeutic drugs combined with Chinese herbs placebo(1+3 placebo granules).In addition,MDR-PTB(n=312)patients with Yin deficiency lung heat syndrome will be randomly assigned to a treatment(n=208)or control/placebo(n=104)group.The treatment group will receive the chemotherapeutic regimen combined with Chinese herbs granules(2+4 granules),while the control group will receive the chemotherapeutic drugs and Chinese herbs placebo(2+4 placebo granules).The primary outcome is cure rate,the secondary outcomes included time to sputum culture conversion,lesion absorption rate and cavity closure rate.BACTEC^(TM)MGIT^(TM)automated mycobacterial detection system will be used to evaluate theM.tb infection and drug resistance.Chi-square test and Cox regression will be conducted with SAS 9.4 Statistical software to analyze the data.Discussion:The treatment cycle for MDR-PTB using standardized modern medicine could cause lengthy substantial side effects.Chinese herbs have been used for many years to treat MDR-PTB,but are without high-quality evidence.Hence,it is unknown whether Chinese herbs enhances the clinical therapeutic effect of synthetic drugs for treating MDR-PTB.Therefore,this study will be conducted to evaluate the clinical therapeutic effect of combining Chinese herbs and chemotherapeutic drugs to treat MDR-PTB cases.It will assist in screening new therapeutic drugs and establishing treatment plan that aims to improve the clinical therapeutic effect for MDR-PTB patients.Trial registration This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov(ChiCTR1900027720)on 24 November 2019(prospective registered).展开更多
In March 2002,the government of China launched the World Bank Loan/ Department for International Development-supported Tuberculosis （TB） Control Project to reduce the prevalence and mortality of TB. The project gene...In March 2002,the government of China launched the World Bank Loan/ Department for International Development-supported Tuberculosis （TB） Control Project to reduce the prevalence and mortality of TB. The project generated promising results in policy development, strengthening of TB control systems, patient treatment success,funds management, and the introduction of legislation. In light of the global TB epidemic and control environment, it is useful to review the TB control priorities of the project, summarize the achievements and experiences around its implementation.展开更多
Objective To observe the therapeutic effect of moxibustion in re-treatment patients of pulmouary tuberculosis. Methods Fifty-three cases were randomly divided into an observation group （31 cases） and a control group...Objective To observe the therapeutic effect of moxibustion in re-treatment patients of pulmouary tuberculosis. Methods Fifty-three cases were randomly divided into an observation group （31 cases） and a control group （22 cases）. They were treated with routine chemotherapeutic program of western medicine, garlic-insulated moxibustion on main acupoints, Feishu （肺俞 BL 13）, Gaohuang （膏肓 BL 43）, Shenzhu （身柱 GV 12） was adopted in the observation group. The therapeutic effects were assessed by clinical symptoms and signs, X-ray, CT examination and laboratory indices. Results The focus absorption rate of 87.1%（27/31） in the observation group was better than that （63.6%,14/22） in the control group （P〈0.05）; the rate of bacteria-turned negativity in sputum was 90.5%（19/21）in the observation group which was better than that （56.3%, 9/16） in the control group （P〈0.05）; the observation group in improvement of lassitude, night sweat and cough was superior to the control group （all P〈0.05）. Conclusion Garlic-insulated moxibustion can increase the therapeutic effect for the retreatment patients of pulmonary tuberculosis.展开更多
Background:Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB)is on the rise in China.This study used a dynamic Markov model to predict the longitudinal trends of MDR-TB in China by 2050 and to assess the effects of alternative ...Background:Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB)is on the rise in China.This study used a dynamic Markov model to predict the longitudinal trends of MDR-TB in China by 2050 and to assess the effects of alternative control measures.Methods:Eight states of tuberculosis transmission were set up in the Markov model using a hypothetical cohort of 100000 people.The prevalence of MDR-TB and bacteriologically confirmed drug-susceptible tuberculosis(DS-TB+)were simulated and MDR-TB was stratified into whether the disease was treated with the recommended regimen or not.Results:Without any intervention changes to current conditions,the prevalence of DS-TB+was projected to decline 67.7%by 2050,decreasing to 20 per 100000 people,whereas that of MDR-TB was expected to triple to 58/100000.Furthermore,86.2%of the MDR-TB cases would be left untreated by the year of 2050.In the case where MDR-TB detection rate reaches 50%or 70%at 5%per year,the decline in prevalence of MDR-TB would be 25.9 and 36.2%respectively.In the case where treatment coverage was improved to 70%or 100%at 5%per year,MDR-TB prevalence in 2050 would decrease by 13.8 and 24.1%,respectively.If both detection rate and treatment coverage reach 70%,the prevalence of MDR-TB by 2050 would be reduced to 28/100000 by a 51.7%reduction.Conclusions:MDR-TB,especially untreated MDR-TB,would rise rapidly under China’s current MDR-TB control strategies.Interventions designed to promote effective detection and treatment of MDR-TB are imperative in the fights against MDR-TB epidemics.展开更多
文摘Tuberculosis is one of the most important infectious diseases in our country. Also nosocomial infection by tuberculosis can occur, which can be prevented by implementing simple, effective and affordable tuberculosis infection control measures in health care facilities. To evaluate the effectiveness of infection control measures, such study was planned. Questionnaires were administered to all doctors, healthcare workers and servants working in outdoor and indoor department of tuberculosis at tertiary care hospital to assess the knowledge, attitudes and practices on prevention and control of Tuberculosis infection. A scoring system was devised to grade them. One-time audit was also done in outpatient and inpatient department. The analysis showed scoring of poor for doctors, good for nurses and poor forward aids. There is a need to develop strategies for training of health care workers on regular basis in order to reduce the incidence of nosocomial infections. Audit result shows a good level of environmental control measures. Better knowledge, attitude and practices are helpful for the prevention and control of tuberculosis. Also environmental control measures are helpful to prevent infection.
基金supported by the Research program on occupational poisoning and occupational lung disease[2014BAI12B01]
文摘The aim of this study was to estimate the association between occupational, environmental, behavioral risk factors, and active pulmonary tuberculosis（PTB） among coal workers＇ pneumoconiosis（CWP） patients. A matched case-control study was conducted in 86 CWP patients with active PTB and 86 CWP controls without TB. A standardized questionnaire was used for risk factors assessment. Conditioned logistic regression analysis was used to identify associations between the risk factors and active PTB among CWP patients. The results showed that the stage of CWP, poor workplace ventilation, family history of TB, and exposure to TB were independent risk factors for active PTB in patients with CWP with which recommendations for improving work environments, and for case finding activities in patients with CWP could be made.
基金This scoping review was kindly supported by the Health and Medical Research Fund[Number:CU-15-C12]Food and Health Bureau,Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China.
文摘With the rapid pace of population ageing,tuberculosis(TB)in the elderly increasingly becomes a public health challenge.Despite the increasing burden and high risks for TB in the elderly,targeted strategy has not been well understood and evaluated.We undertook a scoping review to identify current TB strategies,research and policy gaps in the elderly and summarized the results within a strategic framework towards End TB targets.Databases of Embase,MEDLINE,Global health and EBM reviews were searched for original studies,review articles,and policy papers published in English between January 1990 and December 2015.Articles examining TB strategy,program,guideline or intervention in the elderly from public health perspective were included.Nineteen articles met the inclusion criteria.Most of them were qualitative studies,issued in high-and middle-income countries and after 2000.To break the chain of TB transmission and reactivation in the elderly,infection control,interventions of avoiding delay in diagnosis and containment are essential for preventing transmission,especially in elderly institutions and aged immigrants;screening of latent TB infection and preventive therapy had effective impacts on reducing the risk of reactivation and should be used less reluctantly in older people;optimizing early case-finding with a high index of suspicion,systematic screening for prioritized high-risk groups,initial empirical and adequate follow-up treatment with close monitoring and evaluation,as well as enhanced programmatic management are fundamental pillars for active TB elimination.Evaluation of TB epidemiology,risk factors,impacts and cost-effectiveness of interventions,adopting accurate and rapid diagnostic tools,shorter and less toxic preventive therapy,are critical issues for developing strategy in the elderly towards End TB targets.TB control strategies in the elderly were comprehensively mapped in a causal link pathway.The framework and principals identified in this study will help to evaluate and improve current program,develop targeted strategy,as well as raise more discussions on the research priority settings and policy transitions.Given the scarceness of policy and evaluated interventions,as well as the unawareness of shifting TB epidemiology and strategy especially in developing countries,the increasing need of a ready TB program for the elderly warrants further research.
文摘Background There could be various stakeholders who influencing multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB)policy development and implementation,yet their attributes and roles remain unclear in practice.This study aimed to identify key stakeholders in the process of policy-making for MDR-TB control and prevention and to analyse the attributes and relationships of the stakeholders,providing evidence for further policy research on MDR-TB control.Methods This study was conducted from October 2018 to March 2019 and applied the stakeholder analysis guidelines and domestic stakeholder analysis.An initial candidate stakeholder list was developed by policy scanning.Ten experts were invited to identify these candidate stakeholders.The major attribute of these stakeholders were analysed using the Michell scoring method.Based on these results,the intertwined relationships among groups of stakeholders were analysed and mapped through a systematic scan of the policy and literature on MDR-TB control,as well as information obtained from the interviews.Results A list of 21 types of candidate stakeholders was developed after a literature review and policy scanning,of which 11 received 100%approval.After expert evaluation and identification(the total expert authority was 0.80),19 categories of stakeholders were approved and included in the stakeholder analysis.We categorized all of the stakeholders into three groups:(i)definitive stakeholders who are mainly involved in administrative departments and the Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC);(ii)expectant stakeholders who are mainly involved with MDR-TB patients,clinical departments of TB hospitals at different levels,community health care facilities,prefectural CDC and charity organizations;and(iii)latent stakeholders who mainly involved family members and neighbours of MDR-TB patients and TB related products manufacturers.Government departments and higher-level CDCs have strong decision-making power in developing MDR-TB control policies whereas the recommendations from service providers and the concerns of patients should be considered.Conclusions The MDR-TB prevention system was a multistakeholder cooperation system that was mainly led by government stakeholders.Enhancing communications with front-line service providers and patients on their unmet needs and evidence-based suggestions would highly benefit policy-making of MDR-TB prevention and control.
基金It is funded through the UK Econom ic and Social Research Council(Grant#ES/P008011/1),one of seven research councils underpinning the Antimicrobial Resistance Cross Council Initiative.
文摘Infection prevention and control(IPC)measures to reduce transmission of drug-resistant and drug-sensitive tuberculosis(TB)in health facilities are well described but poorly implemented.The implementation of TB IPC has been assessed primarily through quantitative and structured approaches that treat administrative,environmental,and personal protective measures as discrete entities.We present an on-going project entitled Umoya omuhle(“good air”),conducted in two provinces of South Africa,that adopts an interdisciplinary,‘whole systems’approach to problem analysis and intervention development for reducing nosocomial transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis(Mtb)through improved IPC.We suggest that TB IPC represents a complex intervention that is delivered within a dynamic context shaped by policy guidelines,health facility space,infrastructure,organisation of care,and management culture.Methods drawn from epidemiology,anthropology,and health policy and systems research enable rich contextual analysis of how nosocomial Mtb transmission occurs,as well as opportunities to address the problem holistically.A‘whole systems’approach can identify leverage points within the health facility infrastructure and organisation of care that can inform the design of interventions to reduce the risk of nosocomial Mtb transmission.
文摘Introduction Characterized as persistent and progressive pulmonary function declining,chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can be accompanied by a systemic inflammatory response.A variety of psychiatric and somatic comorbidities can occur to the patients,such as depression,nutritional disorders,cardiovascular disease,and lung cancer.It is imposing great impacts on the quality of patients' life.In 2010 alone,the economic burden of COPD in the world was as high as 2.1 trillion dollars [1].The high prevalence,mortality,and morbidity have made this disease a major public health problem in socio-economic development with a rapidly aging population in China.
基金The data analysis of the study was supported by the fund of Medical Innova‑tion Research Special Project of the Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan of the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission(Grant No.21Y11922500)This randomized controlled trial was supported by the fund of the 13th Five-Year National Science and Technology Major Project for Infectious Diseases(Grant Nos.2017ZX10305501-002,2018ZX10725-509)The English writing was supported by the fund of the talent introduction research funding(Grant No.LH001.007).
文摘Background:Tuberculosis(TB)causedMycobacterium tuberculosis(M.tb)is one of infectious disease that lead a large number of morbidity and mortality all over the world.Although no reliable evidence has been found,it is considered that combining chemotherapeutic drugs with Chinese herbs can significantly improves the cure rate and the clinical therapeutic effect.Methods:Multi-drug resistant pulmonary tuberculosis(MDR-PTB,n=258)patients with Qi-yin deficiency syndrome will be randomly assigned into a treatment group(n=172)or control/placebo group(n=86).The treatment group will receive the chemotherapeutic drugs combined with Chinese herbs granules(1+3 granules),while the control group will receive the chemotherapeutic drugs combined with Chinese herbs placebo(1+3 placebo granules).In addition,MDR-PTB(n=312)patients with Yin deficiency lung heat syndrome will be randomly assigned to a treatment(n=208)or control/placebo(n=104)group.The treatment group will receive the chemotherapeutic regimen combined with Chinese herbs granules(2+4 granules),while the control group will receive the chemotherapeutic drugs and Chinese herbs placebo(2+4 placebo granules).The primary outcome is cure rate,the secondary outcomes included time to sputum culture conversion,lesion absorption rate and cavity closure rate.BACTEC^(TM)MGIT^(TM)automated mycobacterial detection system will be used to evaluate theM.tb infection and drug resistance.Chi-square test and Cox regression will be conducted with SAS 9.4 Statistical software to analyze the data.Discussion:The treatment cycle for MDR-PTB using standardized modern medicine could cause lengthy substantial side effects.Chinese herbs have been used for many years to treat MDR-PTB,but are without high-quality evidence.Hence,it is unknown whether Chinese herbs enhances the clinical therapeutic effect of synthetic drugs for treating MDR-PTB.Therefore,this study will be conducted to evaluate the clinical therapeutic effect of combining Chinese herbs and chemotherapeutic drugs to treat MDR-PTB cases.It will assist in screening new therapeutic drugs and establishing treatment plan that aims to improve the clinical therapeutic effect for MDR-PTB patients.Trial registration This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov(ChiCTR1900027720)on 24 November 2019(prospective registered).
文摘In March 2002,the government of China launched the World Bank Loan/ Department for International Development-supported Tuberculosis （TB） Control Project to reduce the prevalence and mortality of TB. The project generated promising results in policy development, strengthening of TB control systems, patient treatment success,funds management, and the introduction of legislation. In light of the global TB epidemic and control environment, it is useful to review the TB control priorities of the project, summarize the achievements and experiences around its implementation.
文摘Objective To observe the therapeutic effect of moxibustion in re-treatment patients of pulmouary tuberculosis. Methods Fifty-three cases were randomly divided into an observation group （31 cases） and a control group （22 cases）. They were treated with routine chemotherapeutic program of western medicine, garlic-insulated moxibustion on main acupoints, Feishu （肺俞 BL 13）, Gaohuang （膏肓 BL 43）, Shenzhu （身柱 GV 12） was adopted in the observation group. The therapeutic effects were assessed by clinical symptoms and signs, X-ray, CT examination and laboratory indices. Results The focus absorption rate of 87.1%（27/31） in the observation group was better than that （63.6%,14/22） in the control group （P〈0.05）; the rate of bacteria-turned negativity in sputum was 90.5%（19/21）in the observation group which was better than that （56.3%, 9/16） in the control group （P〈0.05）; the observation group in improvement of lassitude, night sweat and cough was superior to the control group （all P〈0.05）. Conclusion Garlic-insulated moxibustion can increase the therapeutic effect for the retreatment patients of pulmonary tuberculosis.
基金The study was supported by the Swedish Research Council(No.540–2013-8797 to SH)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.81361138019 to BX)joint project(VR-NSFC)the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(No.2018ZX10715012–4 to BX).
文摘Background:Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB)is on the rise in China.This study used a dynamic Markov model to predict the longitudinal trends of MDR-TB in China by 2050 and to assess the effects of alternative control measures.Methods:Eight states of tuberculosis transmission were set up in the Markov model using a hypothetical cohort of 100000 people.The prevalence of MDR-TB and bacteriologically confirmed drug-susceptible tuberculosis(DS-TB+)were simulated and MDR-TB was stratified into whether the disease was treated with the recommended regimen or not.Results:Without any intervention changes to current conditions,the prevalence of DS-TB+was projected to decline 67.7%by 2050,decreasing to 20 per 100000 people,whereas that of MDR-TB was expected to triple to 58/100000.Furthermore,86.2%of the MDR-TB cases would be left untreated by the year of 2050.In the case where MDR-TB detection rate reaches 50%or 70%at 5%per year,the decline in prevalence of MDR-TB would be 25.9 and 36.2%respectively.In the case where treatment coverage was improved to 70%or 100%at 5%per year,MDR-TB prevalence in 2050 would decrease by 13.8 and 24.1%,respectively.If both detection rate and treatment coverage reach 70%,the prevalence of MDR-TB by 2050 would be reduced to 28/100000 by a 51.7%reduction.Conclusions:MDR-TB,especially untreated MDR-TB,would rise rapidly under China’s current MDR-TB control strategies.Interventions designed to promote effective detection and treatment of MDR-TB are imperative in the fights against MDR-TB epidemics.
