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Research on Market Risk Assessment of Dairy Farms: Taking 75 Dairy Farms in Heilongjiang Province as Examples
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作者 Li Yan-ling Li Cui-xia 《Journal of Northeast Agricultural University(English Edition)》 CAS 2018年第2期88-96,共9页
Based on the investigation and research on 75 dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province, evaluation index system of dairy farm market risk was set up, and dairy farm market risks were divided into pairing risk, price risk,... Based on the investigation and research on 75 dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province, evaluation index system of dairy farm market risk was set up, and dairy farm market risks were divided into pairing risk, price risk, production risk, contract risk and policy risk, five aspects of a total of 12 assessment indicators. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the market risk. The evaluation results showed that the market risk of dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province was at low risk; however, the policy risk was high. Finally, according to the results of the assessment, the suggestions was made as the followings: the government should expand the scope of policy insurance for dairy farming, vigorously promote the development of cooperative organizations and intermediary organizations in dairy farms by purchasing services through government, increase their functional roles and establish strict supervision mechanisms, including the establishment of official advice hotline and consultation channel online and improving third-party testing mechanism; government and the department of management industry would improve their abilities of management and do a good job of training and guiding. 展开更多
关键词 dairy farm market risk assessment fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
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A Statistical Measure of Global Equity Market Risk
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作者 Daniel Felix Ahelegbey 《Applied Mathematics》 2020年第11期1053-1060,共8页
We construct a new index of global equity market risk (EMR) using market interconnectedness and volatilities. We study the relationship between our EMR and the VIX over the last two decades. The EMR is shown to be a n... We construct a new index of global equity market risk (EMR) using market interconnectedness and volatilities. We study the relationship between our EMR and the VIX over the last two decades. The EMR is shown to be a novel approach to measuring global market risk, and an alternative to the VIX. Using data of 20 major stock markets, including G10 economies, we find spikes in our EMR index during the dotcom bubble, the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the novel coronavirus pandemic. The result shows that the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 induced crisis record the historic highest spikes in financial market risk, suggesting stronger evidence of contagion in both periods. 展开更多
关键词 COVID-19 Financial Crises Financial markets market risk Mahalanobis Distance Volatility Index
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Prevention of Agricultural Market Risks by Agricultural Production Entities in Hubei Province
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作者 Wenxian WENG Meizhi FAN 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2017年第8期15-18,共4页
Different agricultural production and operation entities face the same market risks.Since there is a huge gap in market risk prevention ability between agricultural market operation entities,the gap of risk prevention... Different agricultural production and operation entities face the same market risks.Since there is a huge gap in market risk prevention ability between agricultural market operation entities,the gap of risk prevention effect is huge.Using statistical analysis and comparative analysis methods,this paper analyzed characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural market risks and pointed out characteristics of agricultural market and special characteristics of agricultural production and operation entities in Hubei Province.Based on SWOT analysis on market risk prevention ability of agricultural production and operation entities in Hubei Province,it came up with three recommendations,including upgrading agricultural production and operation entities,enlarging the production and operation scale,and strengthening the ability of balancing the market demand and supply and bargaining power and pricing power. 展开更多
关键词 Agricultural production entities Agricultural risks market risks Prevention ability
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Market risk spillover and the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic fundamentals on market risk across Vietnamese sectors
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作者 Duc Hong Vo Hung Le-Phuc Nguyen 《Financial Innovation》 2024年第1期1915-1943,共29页
Global economic downturns and multiple extreme events threaten Vietnam's economy,leading to a surge in stock market risk and significant spillovers.This study investigates market risk spillovers and explores the a... Global economic downturns and multiple extreme events threaten Vietnam's economy,leading to a surge in stock market risk and significant spillovers.This study investigates market risk spillovers and explores the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic indicators on market risk across 24 sectors in Vietnam from 2012 to 2022.We use the value-at-risk(VaR)technique and a vector autoregression(VAR)model to estimate market risks and their spillovers across Vietnamese sectors.We then examine the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic indicators on market risk using a panel nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag(NARDL)model.Our results confirm that Vietnam’s market risk increases rapidly in response to extreme events.Additionally,market risks exhibit substantial inter-connectedness across the Vietnamese sectors.The Building Materials,Technology,and Securities sectors are primary risk transmitters,whereas the Minerals,Development Investment,and Education sectors are major risk absorbers.Our results also confirm that market risk responds asymmetrically to changes in interest rates,exchange rates(USD/VND),trade openness,financial development,and economic growth in the short and long run.Minerals,Oil&Gas,and Rubber are the sectors that are most affected by macroeconomic indicators in the long run.Based on these important findings,implications focused on limiting market risks and their spillovers,along with sustainable investing,have emerged. 展开更多
关键词 market risks Spillovers Asymmetric effects Macroeconomic indicators Vietnam
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The Empirical Tests on Risk in Chinese Futures Market
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作者 Hong Tian Li Tang 《Chinese Business Review》 2003年第3期54-57,共4页
The Research on Market Risks has been developed abroad in all sorts of markets since 1960's. It's necessary to comprehend and consider opportunity and challenge in Chinese futures market from the viewpoint of risk m... The Research on Market Risks has been developed abroad in all sorts of markets since 1960's. It's necessary to comprehend and consider opportunity and challenge in Chinese futures market from the viewpoint of risk management. With different ARCH models, we find heteroscedasticity does exist in Chinese market, so we adopt the Variance Ratio. We test empirically the prices of Chinese futures market from 1993 to 2002. The results show that only futures price of copper meets the random walk, thereby confirming the weak form market efficiency. It also means that the function of price discovery is weak and the risk of futures market is poor. Finally, we give much constructive policy advice. 展开更多
关键词 Chinese futures market risk management empirical tests
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PRICING EUROPEAN OPTION IN A DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL JUMP-DIFFUSION MODEL WITH TWO MARKET STRUCTURE RISKS AND ITS COMPARISONS 被引量:13
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作者 Deng Guohe 《Applied Mathematics(A Journal of Chinese Universities)》 SCIE CSCD 2007年第2期127-137,共11页
Using Fourier inversion transform, P.D.E. and Feynman-Kac formula, the closedform solution for price on European call option is given in a double exponential jump-diffusion model with two different market structure ri... Using Fourier inversion transform, P.D.E. and Feynman-Kac formula, the closedform solution for price on European call option is given in a double exponential jump-diffusion model with two different market structure risks that there exist CIR stochastic volatility of stock return and Vasicek or CIR stochastic interest rate in the market. In the end, the result of the model in the paper is compared with those in other models, including BS model with numerical experiment. These results show that the double exponential jump-diffusion model with CIR-market structure risks is suitable for modelling the real-market changes and very useful. 展开更多
关键词 double exponential distribution jump-diffusion model market structure risk
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Risk identification and regulatory system design for the carbon market 被引量:4
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作者 Tao Wang Wentao Wang 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 2016年第2期59-67,共9页
Currently,the global carbon trading systems are fragmented and belong to different governments or are under the jurisdiction of different regions,resulting in a series of new problems,such as how to link dispersed tra... Currently,the global carbon trading systems are fragmented and belong to different governments or are under the jurisdiction of different regions,resulting in a series of new problems,such as how to link dispersed trading systems,how to compare the emission reduction of various markets and other issues.Since the development of the international carbon market is relatively immature with uncertain life expectancy and volatility during its short history,and there is a lack of quantitative data on the long-term record,the market could provide few risk management tools.Meanwhile,with the launches of China's regional carbon trading pilots in seven provinces since 2013 and combined with the national voluntary emission trading system,carbon trading will become an important mechanism for China in achieving its emission reduction target.In the first stage,the carbon finance market is at least faced with mechanism design risks,market supply risks and compliance risks.Therefore,to secure the development of the carbon market and for public interest,relevant government departments of China should identify the risks facing the market and should make the basic principles and goals,such as ensuring effective trading and pricing mechanisms to avoid fraud and price manipulation,and balancing transparency and confidentiality of information.Consequently,the governments should develop a comprehensive carbon finance regulatory system covering regulatory legislation,regulatory institutions and their authorities,regulatory scope as well as regulatory objects. 展开更多
关键词 Carbon market risks identification regulatory system
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Study of Enterprises Marketing Risk Early Warning System Based on BP Neural Network Model 被引量:2
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作者 ZHOU Mei-hua WANG Fu-dong ZHANG Hong-hong 《Journal of China University of Mining and Technology》 EI 2006年第3期371-375,共5页
For effectively early warning the marketing risk caused along with the varied environment, a BP neural network method was introduced on the basis of analyzing the shortcomings of the risk early warning method, and com... For effectively early warning the marketing risk caused along with the varied environment, a BP neural network method was introduced on the basis of analyzing the shortcomings of the risk early warning method, and combined with the practical conditions of dairy enterprises, the index system caused by the marketing risk was also studied. The'principal component method was used for screening the indexes, the grades and critical values of the marketing risk were determined. Through the configuration of BP network, node processing and error analysis, the early warning resuits of the marketing risk were obtained. The results indicate that BP neural network method can be effectively applied through the function approach in the marketing early warning with incomplete information and complex varied conditions. 展开更多
关键词 BP neural network marketing risk Early warning Authentic proof
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Analysis of Conditional Value-at-Risk for Newsvendor with Holding and Backorder Cost under Market Search 被引量:4
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作者 LI Jianbin GAO Chengxiu +1 位作者 HU Wei YANG Lei 《Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences》 CAS 2007年第6期979-984,共6页
We consider a distribution system with one supplier and two retailers. For the two retailers, they face different demand and are both risk averse. We study a single period model which the supplier has ample goods and ... We consider a distribution system with one supplier and two retailers. For the two retailers, they face different demand and are both risk averse. We study a single period model which the supplier has ample goods and the retailers order goods separately. Market search is measured as the fraction of customers who unsatisfied with their "local" retailer due to stock-out, and search for the goods at the other retailer before leaving the system. We investigate how the retailers game for order quantity in a Conditional Value-at-Risk framework and study how risk averse degree, market search level, holding cost and backorder cost influence the optimal order strategies. Furthermore, we use uniform distribution to illustrate these results and obtain Nash equilibrium of order strategies. 展开更多
关键词 risk averse Conditional Value-at-risk market search game theory
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Model of Risk Forewarn and Investment Decision in Stock Markets and Its Realization
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作者 邹辉文 汤兵勇 +1 位作者 王丽萍 徐光伟 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2004年第6期134-141,共8页
Based on the discussion of characteristic and mechanism of the stock prices volatility in Chinese emerging stock markets, this research designs an index system for risk forewarn, and builds up an investment decision m... Based on the discussion of characteristic and mechanism of the stock prices volatility in Chinese emerging stock markets, this research designs an index system for risk forewarn, and builds up an investment decision model based on the forewarn of the market risk signal. Then, on probing into the structure and function of the realization of the model, the paper presents the method of data interface. 展开更多
关键词 STOCK market risk forewarn system structure data INTERFACE
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Thoughts on Living Difficulties of Farmers and Marketing Economy in the Risk Society
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作者 WANG Zhi-jie,ZUO Ting Culture and Development College,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100094,China 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2011年第8期61-64,共4页
The paper combs the problems about living difficulties of farmers and marketing economy in the risk society and puts forward another point of view that with the theory of risk society,reconsider the dilemma of living ... The paper combs the problems about living difficulties of farmers and marketing economy in the risk society and puts forward another point of view that with the theory of risk society,reconsider the dilemma of living choices of farmers under the background of marketing economy.On the basis of the statistics,the paper discloses the trend of larger and larger disparities of incomes between urban and rural areas;the paper explains the risks and uncertainties of life choices with the background of deepening marketing economy.In order to understand the life dilemma of farmers and marketing economy in the risk society,the paper makes an analysis from perspectives of the relationships between risk society and markets,the risks of farmers' living choices.The results show that in the risk society,because of the division space from time,the personal farmers are devoid of the safe environment.Then the situation deepens to worse.In addition to the organization which is not in charge results in a situation that the personal farmers would take all risks by themselves. 展开更多
关键词 marketING ECONOMY risk society FARMERS LIVING diff
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Study of the Discount on Private Placements and Risk of Stock Market Crash in Listed Companies
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作者 Qi HU Botan XU 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2019年第3期4-10,共7页
With the gradual completion of the split-share structure reform,private placement has gradually become the mainstream of refinancing. One of the points that the practical and theoretical circles are widely concerned a... With the gradual completion of the split-share structure reform,private placement has gradually become the mainstream of refinancing. One of the points that the practical and theoretical circles are widely concerned about is that the private placement price is often higher than the market price at the time of the private placement. High discounts are often accompanied by the transmission of benefits,and the increase in insider information will lead to the risk of a stock market crash? This paper intends to use the data of A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2015 to empirically study the relationship between the discount on private placements and the risk of stock market crash. At the same time,this paper examines whether the degree of information asymmetry plays a regulatory role in the relationship between the discount on private placements and the risk of stock market crash. This paper provides a certain reference for the regulatory authorities to improve the relevant laws and regulations in the private placement,and to provide a certain reference for the protection of the interests of small and medium-sized investors. 展开更多
关键词 PRIVATE placement DISCOUNT issuance Information asymmetry risk of STOCK market CRASH
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Multi scale risk measurement in electricity market:a wavelet based value at risk approach
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作者 Guu Sy-Ming Lai Kin Keung 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2008年第S1期54-59,共6页
Value at risk (VaR) is adopted to measure the risk level in the electricity market. To estimate VaR at higher accuracy and reliability, the wavelet variance decomposed approach for value at risk estimates (WVDVaR) is ... Value at risk (VaR) is adopted to measure the risk level in the electricity market. To estimate VaR at higher accuracy and reliability, the wavelet variance decomposed approach for value at risk estimates (WVDVaR) is proposed. Empirical studies conduct in five Australian electricity markets, which evaluate the performances of both the proposed approach and the traditional ARMA-GARCH approach using the Kupiec backtesting procedure. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach measures electricity market risks at higher accuracy and reliability than the bench mark ARMA-GARCH approach, as indicated by the higher p values during the Kupiec backtesting procedure. In addition, the new approach also provides more insight into the risk evolution process over time and helps in adjusting VaR estimates to the time horizons that best suit investor interests. The distribution of risk according to investor preferences is shown by decomposing VaR across different time horizons. This also provides important information for the appropriate aggregation of risk measures based on investor investment preferences. 展开更多
关键词 wavelet analysis value at risk risk management Australian electricity market
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Risk in A Concentrated Export Market
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《China Textile》 2009年第12期12-12,共1页
The export destination of China’s home textile products are considered to be highly concentrated. This is reflected by the statistical data of the past couple of years when, the top export destination of the followin... The export destination of China’s home textile products are considered to be highly concentrated. This is reflected by the statistical data of the past couple of years when, the top export destination of the following products-bedding products, curtain and towel- is United States. 展开更多
关键词 risk in A Concentrated Export market
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Identification of Antioxidant Additives in Food Products Sold in Dakar Markets
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作者 Alé Kane Papa Amadou Diakhaté +3 位作者 Sokhna Ndao Modou Dieng Mady Cisse Amadou Diop 《Open Journal of Applied Sciences》 2024年第1期51-62,共12页
The use of food additives in industrial production has the advantage of improving sensory properties, technological quality and extending the shelf life of foods. Among the most widely used additives are antioxidants,... The use of food additives in industrial production has the advantage of improving sensory properties, technological quality and extending the shelf life of foods. Among the most widely used additives are antioxidants, which prevent oxidation, browning and rancidity reactions in foods. However, the strong presence of these additives on the market is not without risks for human health, and should be controlled to guarantee food safety. Analysis of the risks associated with consumption of foods containing these additives requires, among other things, information on the frequency of use of these additives in various consumer products. The aim of this study is therefore to identify the antioxidants present in industrial food products distributed in Dakar. The methodology adopted consists of a qualitative analysis based on the identification of additives from food labels. Investigations were carried out in 9 stores, 4 superettes and 2 supermarkets located in different districts of Dakar. The results revealed the presence of 12 antioxidant additives, dominated by citric acid (53%) and ascorbic acid (29%). These studies have also highlighted the simultaneous use of several antioxidants in the same food product. Moreover, for some artificial antioxidants identified antioxydant such as BHA and BHT, health risks are associated with their consumption. The results of this study open up prospects for the development of information databases on food additives. 展开更多
关键词 ADDITIVES ANTIOXIDANT Food Products market risk
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牛市贝塔与股票收益率
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作者 陈蓉 杨荔海 郑振龙 《管理科学学报》 北大核心 2025年第2期171-190,共20页
本文提出牛市风险这一概念,将其定义为牛市概率的变化,并探究其是否被定价.由于期权市场上的牛市价差组合反映投资者对未来牛市概率的风险中性预期,本文以该组合的短期收益率来度量牛市风险.这种度量方式属于隐含信息法,更符合风险的事... 本文提出牛市风险这一概念,将其定义为牛市概率的变化,并探究其是否被定价.由于期权市场上的牛市价差组合反映投资者对未来牛市概率的风险中性预期,本文以该组合的短期收益率来度量牛市风险.这种度量方式属于隐含信息法,更符合风险的事前属性,可以避免用历史数据估计时存在的比索问题.在用中国的股票和期权数据进行实证时,发现在中国市场上牛市风险不能被传统的因子模型所解释.此外,个股对牛市风险的暴露,即牛市贝塔,与其未来的收益率之间存在显著且稳健的正向关系,表明牛市风险在横截面上被定价. 展开更多
关键词 牛市风险 牛市贝塔 定价因子 隐含信息 比索问题
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外部不确定性对金融市场风险溢出效应的影响因素及宏观审慎管理
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作者 廖文欣 徐晓光 《云南财经大学学报》 北大核心 2025年第3期1-18,共18页
运用基于时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型的溢出指数法测度2002年至2021年9月间中国金融市场风险受外部不确定性冲击的程度,并深入挖掘各类溢入指数的影响因素。研究发现:外部金融不确定性的传染力主要受信息因素制约,信息与企业家信... 运用基于时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型的溢出指数法测度2002年至2021年9月间中国金融市场风险受外部不确定性冲击的程度,并深入挖掘各类溢入指数的影响因素。研究发现:外部金融不确定性的传染力主要受信息因素制约,信息与企业家信心是影响外部宏观不确定性传染力的主要因素,而企业家信心与消费者信心是干扰外部经济政策不确定性传染力的重要因素。企业家信心、信息分别是影响股票市场、债券市场易感程度的关键因素,两种因素也是影响货币市场、外汇市场易感程度的主要因素。进一步通过脉冲响应函数探究宏观审慎政策的有效性,结果发现,全球金融危机时期,短期跨境资本流动管理和流动类政策表现较好,而新冠肺炎疫情时期,资产类政策的短期调控效果较为突出。 展开更多
关键词 外部不确定性 金融市场风险 溢出效应 宏观审慎政策工具
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Risk-evaluation of Hi-tech Enterprise in the Process of Approaching Global Market
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作者 Xiang Laisheng1, Guo Yajun1, Li Zhanfang2 1. School of Management, Northeastern University, Shenyang Liaoning 110004, China 2. Development Research Center of Liaoning People’s Government, Shenyang Liaoning 110032, China 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 北大核心 2007年第2期49-52,共4页
In the high technology industry, small and medium sized technology enterprises (SMSTEs) play a pivotal role in advancing the whole industry. To achieve sustainable development, they need to extend their scope of busin... In the high technology industry, small and medium sized technology enterprises (SMSTEs) play a pivotal role in advancing the whole industry. To achieve sustainable development, they need to extend their scope of business activities beyond a national view and exploit international market actively to meet international competitions that increase quickly in the form of allocating resources within the scope of the world. However, the SMSTEs are also facing risks associated with themselves during the process of exploiting international market owing to their own restrictions, so what they should do is to consider risk evaluations in exploiting the international market. 展开更多
关键词 international market exploiting small-and-medium sized technology enterprise risk evaluation
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中国大豆进口市场布局多目标优化策略研究
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作者 葛明 刘向昱 高远东 《农业经济问题》 北大核心 2025年第2期126-144,共19页
本文构建“风险最小—成本最低—质量最高”多目标模型探究了中国大豆进口市场布局优化策略及其效果,采用结构分解模型识别了优化效果贡献源,并模拟了潜在冲击的影响。结果显示:中国大豆进口风险、成本、质量变动趋势存在显著的国别差... 本文构建“风险最小—成本最低—质量最高”多目标模型探究了中国大豆进口市场布局优化策略及其效果,采用结构分解模型识别了优化效果贡献源,并模拟了潜在冲击的影响。结果显示:中国大豆进口风险、成本、质量变动趋势存在显著的国别差异性和动态不一致性,当前市场布局存在较大的优化空间,以巴西和美国市场份额调整为主,且两者存在此起彼伏的关系,优化后的市场布局既降低了综合风险,也减少平均成本,还提升了产品质量,其中风险降低的效果尤为明显,这主要归因于市场集中度下降的影响。进一步研究发现,中美政治风险上升、国内进口需求增长、巴西对华出口潜力下降均导致我国大豆进口平均成本上升和综合质量下降,且前两者还提高了综合风险。因此,中国应积极优化市场布局、稳定大国经贸关系、提高国产规模与质量、健全风险预警防控体系以保障大豆进口供应链安全、经济与高质量发展。 展开更多
关键词 大豆 进口风险 市场布局 多目标优化 NSGA算法
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碳-新能源市场尾部风险溢出效应研究
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作者 王喜平 于萍 《分布式能源》 2025年第1期23-31,共9页
探究碳-新能源市场风险溢出效应对于防范市场风险、维持碳市场和新能源市场健康平稳运行具有重要意义。运用尾部事件驱动网络模型,构造碳-新能源系统,基于系统、市场、个体等不同角度分析碳市场和新能源市场尾部风险溢出效应。研究发现:... 探究碳-新能源市场风险溢出效应对于防范市场风险、维持碳市场和新能源市场健康平稳运行具有重要意义。运用尾部事件驱动网络模型,构造碳-新能源系统,基于系统、市场、个体等不同角度分析碳市场和新能源市场尾部风险溢出效应。研究发现:碳-新能源系统整体关联性具有明显的周期性特征,突发极端事件会使风险关联度攀升;样本期内,碳市场吸收新能源市场的风险大于向新能源市场输送的风险,碳市场和光伏子市场的联系更为密切;随着碳市场和新能源市场的完善,局域极值点窗口期的关联边数逐渐增多,网络结构越发复杂;在总体关联度局域极大值时,碳市场和光伏子市场主要起到风险溢出通道的作用,风电和新能源汽车子市场有向外溢出和双向溢出的功能。最后,从风险防控、市场建设、监督管理的角度提出建议。 展开更多
关键词 碳市场 新能源市场 尾部风险溢出效应 尾部事件驱动网络
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