The annual mean volume and heat transport sketches through the inter-basin passages and transoceanic sections have been constructed based on 1400-year spin up results of the MOM4p 1. The spin up starts from a state of...The annual mean volume and heat transport sketches through the inter-basin passages and transoceanic sections have been constructed based on 1400-year spin up results of the MOM4p 1. The spin up starts from a state of rest, driven by the monthly climatological mean force from the NOAAWorld Ocean Atlas （1994）. The volume transport sketch reveals the northward transport throughout the Pacific and southward transport at all latitudes in the Atlantic. The annual mean strength of the Pacific-Arctic-Atlantic through flow is 0.63x106 m3/s in the Bering Strait. The majority of the northward volume transport in the southern Pacific turns into the Indonesian through flow （ITF） and joins the Indian Ocean equatorial current, which subse- quently flows out southward from the Mozambique Channel, with its majority superimposed on the Ant- arctic Circumpolar Current （ACC）. This anti-cyclonic circulation around Australia has a strength of 11 x 106 ms /s according to the model-produced result. The atmospheric fresh water transport, known as P-E^R （pre- cipitation minus evaporation plus runoff）, constructs a complement to the horizontal volume transport of the ocean. The annual mean heat transport sketch exhibits a northward heat transport in the Atlantic and poleward heat transport in the global ocean. The surface heat flux acts as a complement to the horizontal heat transport of the ocean. The climatological volume transports describe the most important features through the inter-basin passages and in the associated basins, including： the positive P-E＋R in the Arctic substantially strengthening the East Greenland Current in summer; semiannual variability of the volume transport in the Drake Passage and the southern Atlantic-Indian Ocean passage; and annual transport vari- ability of the ITF intensifying in the boreal summer. The climatological heat transports show heat storage in July and heat deficit in January in the Arctic; heat storage in January and heat deficit in July in the Antarctic circumpolar current regime （ACCR）; and intensified heat transport of the iTF in July. The volume transport of the ITF is synchronous with the volume transport through the southern Indo-Pacific sections, but the year-long southward heat transport of the ITF is out of phase with the heat transport through the equatorial Pacific, which is northward before May and southward after May. This clarifies the majority of the ITF origi- natinR from the southern Pacific Ocean.展开更多
The local characteristics of multi-dimensional modeling method of multivariate copula. A new modeling remedy this defect. Different types of copula distribution random variables are seldom considered in the general me...The local characteristics of multi-dimensional modeling method of multivariate copula. A new modeling remedy this defect. Different types of copula distribution random variables are seldom considered in the general method, called pair-copula construction, is introduced to functions are allowed to be introduced in this method. Correspondingly, the related characteristics of complex multivariate can be described by a cascade of pair-copula acting on two variables at a time. In the analysis of asynchronism-synchronism of regional precipitation in WED inter- basin water transfer areas, the pair-copula construction method is compared with the general modeling method of mul- tivariate copula. The results show that the local dependence structure would exist among hydrologic variables even in three-dimensional cases. In this situation, the general modeling method of multivariate copula would face difficulties in fitting distribution. However, the pair-copula construction method could capture the local information of hydrologic variables efficiently by introducing different types of copula distribution functions. Moreover, the compensation ca- pacity of water resources is strong in different hydrological areas of WED water transfer project. The asynchronous frequency of wetness and dryness is 69.64% and the favorable frequency for water transfer is 46.15%.展开更多
Groundwater movement beneath watershed divide is one component of the hydrological cycle that is typically ignored due to difficulty in analysis. Numerical ground-water models, like TAGSAC, have been used extensively ...Groundwater movement beneath watershed divide is one component of the hydrological cycle that is typically ignored due to difficulty in analysis. Numerical ground-water models, like TAGSAC, have been used extensively for predicting aquifer responses to external stresses. In this paper TAGSAC code was developed to identify the inter-basin groundwater transfer (IBGWT) between upper Awash River basin (UARB) and upper rift valley lakes basin (URVLB) of Ethiopia. For the identification three steady state groundwater models (for UARB, URVLB and for the two combined basins) were first created and calibrated for the 926 inventoried wells. The first two models are conceptualized by considering the watershed divide between the two basins as no-flow. The third model avoids the surface water divide which justifies IBGWT. The calibration of these three models was made by changing the recharge and hydrogeologic parameters of the basins. The goodness of fit indicators (GoFIs) obtained was better for the combined model than the model that describes the URVLB. Furthermore, the hydraulic head distribution obtained from the combined model clearly indicates that there is a groundwater flow that doesn’t respect the surface water divide. The most obvious effect of IBGWT observed in these two basins is that it diminishes surface water discharge from URVLB, and enhances discharge in the UARB. Moreover, the result of this study indicates potential for internal and cross contamination of the two adjacent groundwater.展开更多
Multiple approaches have been used to estimate groundwater recharge in the Upper Awash river basin. The amount of recharge reaching the Upper Awash aquifer system from the Blue Nile sub-basins is also estimated. Water...Multiple approaches have been used to estimate groundwater recharge in the Upper Awash river basin. The amount of recharge reaching the Upper Awash aquifer system from the Blue Nile sub-basins is also estimated. Water Balance, Chloride Mass Balance and HYDRUS 1D infiltration model are used to estimate recharge. A total of 29 sites were selected for the HYDRUS 1D multiple “at point” recharge simulations. Base Flow Separation (BFS) methods, using both River Analysis Package software Version 3.0.3 and Excel-based Time Plot program are also used as a proxy for recharge. Besides, overlay analysis in Processing MODFLOW, ArcGIS, and SURFER environments has been done to thoroughly consider spatial heterogeneity between any two point estimates and appreciate the effect of lineament density, topography, slope and major urbanized land on pattern of spatial distribution of recharge. Because of differences inherent in the assumptions and datasets used, the various methods employed give wide range of differences in recharge estimates. Recharge estimated for the Upper Awash basin ranges from 51.5 mm/year to 157 mm/year and for the two southern left-bank sub-basins of the Middle Blue Nile basin (Mugher and Jema) ranges from 86 mm/year to 239 mm/year. Consequently, annual average volumetric recharge in the Upper Awash and annual groundwater flux from portion of the Blue Nile sub basins to the Upper Awash aquifer system are estimated to be 983 Mm3 and 365 Mm3 respectively. The significant flux joining the Upper Awash groundwater system from part of the Middle Blue Nile basin, which is almost 37% of the total annual recharge to the Upper Awash basin makes this part of the Middle Blue Nile basin an important recharge zone for the Upper Awash groundwater. Estimating recharge using integrated approaches was found to be useful to identify range of plausible recharge rates in the two basins. Besides, the new methodological approach of superimposing recharge governing factors on interpolation of point recharge estimates helps to produce physical based spatial distribution of recharge.展开更多
Demand for fresh water, as one of the major natural resources, is increasing rapidly with increasing development and environmental degradation. The continued abstraction of water from Lake Ziway and its main feeder ri...Demand for fresh water, as one of the major natural resources, is increasing rapidly with increasing development and environmental degradation. The continued abstraction of water from Lake Ziway and its main feeder rivers Meki and Katar for irrigation indicates that the water demand may soon exceed the supply. To illustrate disparities in spatial distribution of water resources, the Upper Awash sub-basin, which shares a water-divide with the CRVL sub-basin, has large flow volumes particularly in the rainy season and suffers with seasonal flooding. The rationale behind regaining the water in CRVL relies on this non-uniform spatial distribution of fresh water, calling for a balance between water surplus and deficit regions. For this reason, Inter Basin Water Transfer (IBWT) is suggested as a viable option to augment utilizable water resources of the Upper Awash sub-basin to reduce the significant pressure on the water supply of the rapidly developing urban and irrigation areas in the CRVL sub-basin. A water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model was used to quantify the amount of surplus water in the donor basin, when examining the hydrological dynamics of the basins. Furthermore, optimal flow diversion scenarios were generated by maintaining two baseline scenario constraints. The estimated surplus water in the rainy season is expected to contribute 18 million cubic meters (mcm), 88 mcm and 192 mcm in months June, July and August respectively under average conditions. The optimal amount of diverted water could potentially stabilize the environmental degradation of Lake Ziway and Lake Abijata by compensating for development-driven abstraction and surface water evaporation respectively.展开更多
This paper develops a new inter-basin water transfer-supply and risk assessment model with consideration of rainfall forecast information. Firstly, based on the current state of reservoir and rainfall forecast informa...This paper develops a new inter-basin water transfer-supply and risk assessment model with consideration of rainfall forecast information. Firstly, based on the current state of reservoir and rainfall forecast information from the global forecast system (GFS), the actual diversion amount can be determined according to the inter-basin water transfer rules with the decision tree method; secondly, the reservoir supply operation system is used to distribute water resource of the inter-basin water transfer reservoir; finally, the integrated risk assessment model is built by selecting the reliability of water transfer, the reliability (water shortage risk), the resiliency and the vulnerability of water supply as risk analysis indexes. The case study shows that the inter-basin water transfer-supply model with rainfall forecast information considered can reduce the comprehensive risk and improve the utilization efficiency of water resource, as compared with conventional and optimal water distribution models.展开更多
The joint operation of inter-basin water transfer-supply(IBWTS)project can be more complex when there is joint water demand in multi-reservoir system and multi-importing reservoirs simultaneously transferring water fr...The joint operation of inter-basin water transfer-supply(IBWTS)project can be more complex when there is joint water demand in multi-reservoir system and multi-importing reservoirs simultaneously transferring water from exporting reservoir.In this study,a joint operating rule is proposed for the purpose of solving such complex operation problem.This rule is composed of a set of sub-rules,including hedging rule curves of virtual aggregation reservoir(i.e.equivalent reservoir)and other individual reservoirs,water-transfer rule curves of each individual reservoir,as well as some of important assisted rules.These assisted rules refer to allocation models for water transfer-supply.In the proposed rule,an equivalent reservoir is established to determine under what condition the water supply should be reduced and specify the total supplied water for joint water demand(i.e.aggregation method).Allocation models are developed to distribute the total transferred water into each importing reservoir and determine the water releases for joint water demand by each member reservoir of the aggregation system(i.e.decomposition method).And these models are integrated with a set of influence factors such as hydrologic characteristics,reservoir storage or vacant storage,regulating ability,water-supply pressure,and so on.The aggregation of multi-reservoirs and the disaggregation of water quantities are taken into a whole consideration to reduce the complexity in reallocation of water target storage or water release.Finally,the proposed rule is applied to the North-line IBWTS Project in Liaoning Province,China.The results indicate that the proposed rule can take full advantage of hydrologic compensation in basins and capacity compensation in reservoirs.Thus it can improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in system.展开更多
Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects require the appropriate financing model to attract large amounts of social investment.Therefore,financing model decision becomes the key of engineering construction.In three aspects...Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects require the appropriate financing model to attract large amounts of social investment.Therefore,financing model decision becomes the key of engineering construction.In three aspects,such as the subject,the object and the target of the financing model,Grey Target Model is established in this paper.First,the complex financing mode decision problems of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects are decomposed by using hierarchical decomposition method.Then Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) method is used to calculate the comprehensive weight of evaluation index.Experts' opinions financing model are transformed into the evaluation matrix based on the Dephi method.The Weighted Grey Target Model is used to calculate the approaching degree of financing model and assists financing mode decision.In addition,this paper takes the water diversion project from the Han to the Wei River of Shaanxi Province as a verification example for the model.For other water diversion projects,the evaluation results are also reliable and provide theoretical references for the financing model decision of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects.展开更多
Over the last three decades,more than half of the world's large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage,primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other h...Over the last three decades,more than half of the world's large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage,primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other human needs.The desiccation of lakes leads to severe environmental,economic,and social repercussions.Urmia Lake,located in northwestern Iran and representing a vital natural ecosystem,has experienced a volume reduction of over 90.0%.Our research evaluated diverse water management strategies within the Urmia Lake basin and prospects of inter-basin water transfers.This study focused on strategies to safeguard the environmental water rights of the Urmia Lake by utilizing the modeling and simulating(MODSIM)model.The model simulated changes in the lake's water volume under various scenarios.These included diverting water from incoming rivers,cutting agricultural water use by 40.0%,releasing dam water in non-agricultural seasons,treated wastewater utilization,and inter-basin transfers.Analytical hierarchy process(AHP)was utilized to analyze the simulation results.Expert opinions with AHP analysis,acted as a multi-criteria decision-making tool to evaluate the simulation and determine the optimal water supply source priority for the Urmia Lake.Our findings underscore the critical importance of reducing agricultural water consumption as the foremost step in preserving the lake.Following this,inter-basin water transfers are suggested,with a detailed consideration of the inherent challenges and limitations faced by the source watersheds.It is imperative to conduct assessments on the impacts of these transfers on the downstream users and the potential environmental risks,advocating for a diplomatic and cooperative approach with adjacent country.This study also aims to forecast the volumes of water that can be transferred under different climatic conditions—drought,normal,and wet years—to inform strategic water management planning for the Urmia Lake.According to our projection,implementing the strategic scenarios outlined could significantly augment the lake's level and volume,potentially by 3.57×109–9.38×109 m3 over the coming 10 a and 3.57×109–10.70×109 m3 in the subsequent 15 a.展开更多
基金The National Basic Research Program Grant of China under contract No.2011CB403502the National High Technology Research and Development Program(863 Program)under contract No.2013AA09A506+2 种基金the Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction Program under contract No.GASI-03-01-01-04the International Cooperation Program Grant of China under contract No.2010DFB23580author Guan Yuping is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 40976011 and 91228202
文摘The annual mean volume and heat transport sketches through the inter-basin passages and transoceanic sections have been constructed based on 1400-year spin up results of the MOM4p 1. The spin up starts from a state of rest, driven by the monthly climatological mean force from the NOAAWorld Ocean Atlas （1994）. The volume transport sketch reveals the northward transport throughout the Pacific and southward transport at all latitudes in the Atlantic. The annual mean strength of the Pacific-Arctic-Atlantic through flow is 0.63x106 m3/s in the Bering Strait. The majority of the northward volume transport in the southern Pacific turns into the Indonesian through flow （ITF） and joins the Indian Ocean equatorial current, which subse- quently flows out southward from the Mozambique Channel, with its majority superimposed on the Ant- arctic Circumpolar Current （ACC）. This anti-cyclonic circulation around Australia has a strength of 11 x 106 ms /s according to the model-produced result. The atmospheric fresh water transport, known as P-E^R （pre- cipitation minus evaporation plus runoff）, constructs a complement to the horizontal volume transport of the ocean. The annual mean heat transport sketch exhibits a northward heat transport in the Atlantic and poleward heat transport in the global ocean. The surface heat flux acts as a complement to the horizontal heat transport of the ocean. The climatological volume transports describe the most important features through the inter-basin passages and in the associated basins, including： the positive P-E＋R in the Arctic substantially strengthening the East Greenland Current in summer; semiannual variability of the volume transport in the Drake Passage and the southern Atlantic-Indian Ocean passage; and annual transport vari- ability of the ITF intensifying in the boreal summer. The climatological heat transports show heat storage in July and heat deficit in January in the Arctic; heat storage in January and heat deficit in July in the Antarctic circumpolar current regime （ACCR）; and intensified heat transport of the iTF in July. The volume transport of the ITF is synchronous with the volume transport through the southern Indo-Pacific sections, but the year-long southward heat transport of the ITF is out of phase with the heat transport through the equatorial Pacific, which is northward before May and southward after May. This clarifies the majority of the ITF origi- natinR from the southern Pacific Ocean.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50979011)
文摘The local characteristics of multi-dimensional modeling method of multivariate copula. A new modeling remedy this defect. Different types of copula distribution random variables are seldom considered in the general method, called pair-copula construction, is introduced to functions are allowed to be introduced in this method. Correspondingly, the related characteristics of complex multivariate can be described by a cascade of pair-copula acting on two variables at a time. In the analysis of asynchronism-synchronism of regional precipitation in WED inter- basin water transfer areas, the pair-copula construction method is compared with the general modeling method of mul- tivariate copula. The results show that the local dependence structure would exist among hydrologic variables even in three-dimensional cases. In this situation, the general modeling method of multivariate copula would face difficulties in fitting distribution. However, the pair-copula construction method could capture the local information of hydrologic variables efficiently by introducing different types of copula distribution functions. Moreover, the compensation ca- pacity of water resources is strong in different hydrological areas of WED water transfer project. The asynchronous frequency of wetness and dryness is 69.64% and the favorable frequency for water transfer is 46.15%.
文摘Groundwater movement beneath watershed divide is one component of the hydrological cycle that is typically ignored due to difficulty in analysis. Numerical ground-water models, like TAGSAC, have been used extensively for predicting aquifer responses to external stresses. In this paper TAGSAC code was developed to identify the inter-basin groundwater transfer (IBGWT) between upper Awash River basin (UARB) and upper rift valley lakes basin (URVLB) of Ethiopia. For the identification three steady state groundwater models (for UARB, URVLB and for the two combined basins) were first created and calibrated for the 926 inventoried wells. The first two models are conceptualized by considering the watershed divide between the two basins as no-flow. The third model avoids the surface water divide which justifies IBGWT. The calibration of these three models was made by changing the recharge and hydrogeologic parameters of the basins. The goodness of fit indicators (GoFIs) obtained was better for the combined model than the model that describes the URVLB. Furthermore, the hydraulic head distribution obtained from the combined model clearly indicates that there is a groundwater flow that doesn’t respect the surface water divide. The most obvious effect of IBGWT observed in these two basins is that it diminishes surface water discharge from URVLB, and enhances discharge in the UARB. Moreover, the result of this study indicates potential for internal and cross contamination of the two adjacent groundwater.
文摘Multiple approaches have been used to estimate groundwater recharge in the Upper Awash river basin. The amount of recharge reaching the Upper Awash aquifer system from the Blue Nile sub-basins is also estimated. Water Balance, Chloride Mass Balance and HYDRUS 1D infiltration model are used to estimate recharge. A total of 29 sites were selected for the HYDRUS 1D multiple “at point” recharge simulations. Base Flow Separation (BFS) methods, using both River Analysis Package software Version 3.0.3 and Excel-based Time Plot program are also used as a proxy for recharge. Besides, overlay analysis in Processing MODFLOW, ArcGIS, and SURFER environments has been done to thoroughly consider spatial heterogeneity between any two point estimates and appreciate the effect of lineament density, topography, slope and major urbanized land on pattern of spatial distribution of recharge. Because of differences inherent in the assumptions and datasets used, the various methods employed give wide range of differences in recharge estimates. Recharge estimated for the Upper Awash basin ranges from 51.5 mm/year to 157 mm/year and for the two southern left-bank sub-basins of the Middle Blue Nile basin (Mugher and Jema) ranges from 86 mm/year to 239 mm/year. Consequently, annual average volumetric recharge in the Upper Awash and annual groundwater flux from portion of the Blue Nile sub basins to the Upper Awash aquifer system are estimated to be 983 Mm3 and 365 Mm3 respectively. The significant flux joining the Upper Awash groundwater system from part of the Middle Blue Nile basin, which is almost 37% of the total annual recharge to the Upper Awash basin makes this part of the Middle Blue Nile basin an important recharge zone for the Upper Awash groundwater. Estimating recharge using integrated approaches was found to be useful to identify range of plausible recharge rates in the two basins. Besides, the new methodological approach of superimposing recharge governing factors on interpolation of point recharge estimates helps to produce physical based spatial distribution of recharge.
文摘Demand for fresh water, as one of the major natural resources, is increasing rapidly with increasing development and environmental degradation. The continued abstraction of water from Lake Ziway and its main feeder rivers Meki and Katar for irrigation indicates that the water demand may soon exceed the supply. To illustrate disparities in spatial distribution of water resources, the Upper Awash sub-basin, which shares a water-divide with the CRVL sub-basin, has large flow volumes particularly in the rainy season and suffers with seasonal flooding. The rationale behind regaining the water in CRVL relies on this non-uniform spatial distribution of fresh water, calling for a balance between water surplus and deficit regions. For this reason, Inter Basin Water Transfer (IBWT) is suggested as a viable option to augment utilizable water resources of the Upper Awash sub-basin to reduce the significant pressure on the water supply of the rapidly developing urban and irrigation areas in the CRVL sub-basin. A water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model was used to quantify the amount of surplus water in the donor basin, when examining the hydrological dynamics of the basins. Furthermore, optimal flow diversion scenarios were generated by maintaining two baseline scenario constraints. The estimated surplus water in the rainy season is expected to contribute 18 million cubic meters (mcm), 88 mcm and 192 mcm in months June, July and August respectively under average conditions. The optimal amount of diverted water could potentially stabilize the environmental degradation of Lake Ziway and Lake Abijata by compensating for development-driven abstraction and surface water evaporation respectively.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50979011)
文摘This paper develops a new inter-basin water transfer-supply and risk assessment model with consideration of rainfall forecast information. Firstly, based on the current state of reservoir and rainfall forecast information from the global forecast system (GFS), the actual diversion amount can be determined according to the inter-basin water transfer rules with the decision tree method; secondly, the reservoir supply operation system is used to distribute water resource of the inter-basin water transfer reservoir; finally, the integrated risk assessment model is built by selecting the reliability of water transfer, the reliability (water shortage risk), the resiliency and the vulnerability of water supply as risk analysis indexes. The case study shows that the inter-basin water transfer-supply model with rainfall forecast information considered can reduce the comprehensive risk and improve the utilization efficiency of water resource, as compared with conventional and optimal water distribution models.
基金supported by the Major International(Regional)Cooperation Project(Grant No.51320105010)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51379027,51109025)the Fundamental Research Fund for the Central Universities(Grant No.DUT13JS06)
文摘The joint operation of inter-basin water transfer-supply(IBWTS)project can be more complex when there is joint water demand in multi-reservoir system and multi-importing reservoirs simultaneously transferring water from exporting reservoir.In this study,a joint operating rule is proposed for the purpose of solving such complex operation problem.This rule is composed of a set of sub-rules,including hedging rule curves of virtual aggregation reservoir(i.e.equivalent reservoir)and other individual reservoirs,water-transfer rule curves of each individual reservoir,as well as some of important assisted rules.These assisted rules refer to allocation models for water transfer-supply.In the proposed rule,an equivalent reservoir is established to determine under what condition the water supply should be reduced and specify the total supplied water for joint water demand(i.e.aggregation method).Allocation models are developed to distribute the total transferred water into each importing reservoir and determine the water releases for joint water demand by each member reservoir of the aggregation system(i.e.decomposition method).And these models are integrated with a set of influence factors such as hydrologic characteristics,reservoir storage or vacant storage,regulating ability,water-supply pressure,and so on.The aggregation of multi-reservoirs and the disaggregation of water quantities are taken into a whole consideration to reduce the complexity in reallocation of water target storage or water release.Finally,the proposed rule is applied to the North-line IBWTS Project in Liaoning Province,China.The results indicate that the proposed rule can take full advantage of hydrologic compensation in basins and capacity compensation in reservoirs.Thus it can improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in system.
基金partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.51209170,and 51479160)the foundation for the Plan Projects of Water Conservancy Science and Technology of Shaanxi Province (Grant No.2013SLKJ05)the Project Supported by Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China (Grant No.2016JQ5061)
文摘Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects require the appropriate financing model to attract large amounts of social investment.Therefore,financing model decision becomes the key of engineering construction.In three aspects,such as the subject,the object and the target of the financing model,Grey Target Model is established in this paper.First,the complex financing mode decision problems of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects are decomposed by using hierarchical decomposition method.Then Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) method is used to calculate the comprehensive weight of evaluation index.Experts' opinions financing model are transformed into the evaluation matrix based on the Dephi method.The Weighted Grey Target Model is used to calculate the approaching degree of financing model and assists financing mode decision.In addition,this paper takes the water diversion project from the Han to the Wei River of Shaanxi Province as a verification example for the model.For other water diversion projects,the evaluation results are also reliable and provide theoretical references for the financing model decision of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects.
文摘Over the last three decades,more than half of the world's large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage,primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other human needs.The desiccation of lakes leads to severe environmental,economic,and social repercussions.Urmia Lake,located in northwestern Iran and representing a vital natural ecosystem,has experienced a volume reduction of over 90.0%.Our research evaluated diverse water management strategies within the Urmia Lake basin and prospects of inter-basin water transfers.This study focused on strategies to safeguard the environmental water rights of the Urmia Lake by utilizing the modeling and simulating(MODSIM)model.The model simulated changes in the lake's water volume under various scenarios.These included diverting water from incoming rivers,cutting agricultural water use by 40.0%,releasing dam water in non-agricultural seasons,treated wastewater utilization,and inter-basin transfers.Analytical hierarchy process(AHP)was utilized to analyze the simulation results.Expert opinions with AHP analysis,acted as a multi-criteria decision-making tool to evaluate the simulation and determine the optimal water supply source priority for the Urmia Lake.Our findings underscore the critical importance of reducing agricultural water consumption as the foremost step in preserving the lake.Following this,inter-basin water transfers are suggested,with a detailed consideration of the inherent challenges and limitations faced by the source watersheds.It is imperative to conduct assessments on the impacts of these transfers on the downstream users and the potential environmental risks,advocating for a diplomatic and cooperative approach with adjacent country.This study also aims to forecast the volumes of water that can be transferred under different climatic conditions—drought,normal,and wet years—to inform strategic water management planning for the Urmia Lake.According to our projection,implementing the strategic scenarios outlined could significantly augment the lake's level and volume,potentially by 3.57×109–9.38×109 m3 over the coming 10 a and 3.57×109–10.70×109 m3 in the subsequent 15 a.
