本文以十四五期间我省金融风险为研究对象,结合国内外经济、政治的复杂性与河北省现实经济发展的客观性,充分利用波动理论、预期理论、突变理论等核心方法对我省金融风险进行科学测度,力求为我省金融风险评估与预测提供有力的理论基础...本文以十四五期间我省金融风险为研究对象,结合国内外经济、政治的复杂性与河北省现实经济发展的客观性,充分利用波动理论、预期理论、突变理论等核心方法对我省金融风险进行科学测度,力求为我省金融风险评估与预测提供有力的理论基础和实践工具。首先,准确刻画十四五期间河北省未来经济预期的基本状态,制定切实科学的经济预期评估指标与分类标准,建立系统的经济预期评估体系,保证经济预期研判的完整性、科学性,为金融风险评估做好宏观准备。其次,针对现有的波动理论,建立具有体制转换周期特征的随机波动系统,融入体制转换因子与经济预期因子,精准分析十四五期间金融市场风险的一般规律,给出科学评估我省金融风险的一般方法和指标体系。再次,引入突变理论,模拟突发情况及金融风险骤然演变对我省经济的影响。通过对某一金融市场的核心数据运用统计与优化的方法,对收集的数据进行清洗、处理,确保系统参数估计的科学性与有效性,检验突变理论的可靠性和一致性,做到金融风险提前预测,及时防控。最后,结合上述模型,对河北省金融风险进行实证研究,并对十四五期间金融市场风险进行预测研究,检验新型波动系统的稳定性与一致性,并用于指导金融风险防控的实践。This paper takes the financial risk of our province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period as the research object, combines the complexity of domestic and foreign economy and politics and the objectivity of the real economic development of Hebei Province, makes full use of the core methods such as fluctuation theory, expectation theory and catastrophe theory to scientifically measure the financial risk of our province and strives to provide a powerful theoretical basis and practical tool for the financial risk assessment and prediction of our province. First of all, it accurately describes the basic state of the future economic expectation of Hebei Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, formulates practical and scientific economic expectation evaluation indicators and classification standards, establishes a systematic economic expectation evaluation system, ensures the integrity and scientific nature of economic expectation research and judgment, and makes macro preparations for financial risk assessment. Secondly, according to the existing volatility theory, this paper establishes a stochastic volatility system with the characteristics of regime switching cycle, integrates regime switching factor and economic expectation factor, accurately analyzes the general law of financial market risk during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and gives the general method and index system of scientific evaluation of financial risk in our province. Thirdly, the abrupt change theory is introduced to simulate the impact of emergencies and sudden evolution of financial risks on the economy of our province. Through the use of statistics and optimization methods for the core data of a financial market, the collected data are cleaned and processed to ensure the scientific and effective estimation of system parameters, test the reliability and consistency of mutation theory, and achieve the prediction of financial risks in advance, timely prevention and control. Finally, combined with the above model, this paper makes an empirical study on the financial risk of Hebei Province and makes a forecast study on the financial market risk during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, tests the stability and consistency of the new volatility system, and guides the practice of financial risk prevention and control.展开更多
目的基于随机森林模型探讨中青年乳腺癌患者未成年子女养育忧虑现状及其影响因素,为临床干预提供依据。方法采用便利抽样法,选择2023年4月至12月在本市某三级甲等综合医院乳腺外科接受诊疗的275例乳腺癌患者为研究对象。采用自行设计的...目的基于随机森林模型探讨中青年乳腺癌患者未成年子女养育忧虑现状及其影响因素,为临床干预提供依据。方法采用便利抽样法,选择2023年4月至12月在本市某三级甲等综合医院乳腺外科接受诊疗的275例乳腺癌患者为研究对象。采用自行设计的一般资料问卷、中文版养育忧虑问卷(parenting concerns questionnaire,PCQ)、领悟社会支持量表(perceived social support scale,PSSS)、癌症复发担忧量表(concern about recurrence scale,CARS)、简易疾病感知量表(brief illness perception questionnaire,BIPQ)进行调查。基于随机森林模型和最小绝对收缩和选择算法(least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,LASSO)对变量进行重要性排序和变量筛选,将筛选后的变量纳入多元线性回归分析。结果260例患者完成研究。中青年乳腺癌患者养育忧虑得分为(51.1±6.4)分。将随机森林及LASSO回归确定的变量,纳入多元线性回归分析结果显示(并按影响因素重次要排序),疾病感知越高、领悟社会支持越低、癌症复发担忧越大、肿瘤分期Ⅳ期、离异/丧偶、未成年子女个数越多的中青年乳腺癌患者养育的忧虑越严重(均P<0.05),解释总变异的57.0%。结论中青年乳腺癌患者养育忧虑处于中等偏高水平,受多种因素影响,医护人员应针对性制订措施给予干预,以便降低患者养育忧虑水平。展开更多
随着对地观测技术的飞速发展,我们能够以前所未有的精度和频率获取地球表面的各种数据,通过进行更精细的空间分析和时间序列分析,可以揭示地理环境变化的深层次规律。本文旨在建立中国降水量变化趋势及其与海拔、坡度、土地利用之间的...随着对地观测技术的飞速发展,我们能够以前所未有的精度和频率获取地球表面的各种数据,通过进行更精细的空间分析和时间序列分析,可以揭示地理环境变化的深层次规律。本文旨在建立中国降水量变化趋势及其与海拔、坡度、土地利用之间的预测模型。通过对降水量、地形因素和五种主要土地覆盖类型的相关性分析,运用Logistic回归和随机森林模型探讨了这些因素对灾害发生的共同影响机制。此外,采用ARIMA时间序列模型预测了未来2025年到2035年间的降水量和土地利用格局,并结合随机森林模型评估了此期间各地区暴雨灾害风险的空间分布。研究结果揭示了在极端天气条件下最脆弱的地区,为灾害防范和土地规划提供了重要参考。With the rapid advancement of remote sensing technologies, we are now able to obtain various data on the Earth’s surface with unprecedented accuracy and frequency. Through more refined spatial and time series analyses, the underlying patterns of geographical environmental changes can be revealed. This study aims to establish predictive models for the trends in precipitation changes in China and their relationships with elevation, slope, and land use. By analyzing the correlations between precipitation, topographic factors, and five major land cover types, the study employs Logistic regression and Random Forest models to explore the joint impact of these factors on the occurrence of disasters. Additionally, the ARIMA time series model is utilized to forecast precipitation and land use patterns from 2025 to 2035, while the Random Forest model is applied to assess the spatial distribution of rainfall disaster risks during this period. The results of the study highlight the most vulnerable regions under extreme weather conditions, providing valuable insights for disaster prevention and land planning.展开更多
在大数据时代,总体往往呈现出显著的异质性特点。本文借助混合模型来刻画了多个同质个体构成总体的异质性。我们基于改进比例反失效率模型的参数来体现种群中的信息,探讨了改进比例反失效率模型构成有限混合模型的统计性质,结合矩阵链...在大数据时代,总体往往呈现出显著的异质性特点。本文借助混合模型来刻画了多个同质个体构成总体的异质性。我们基于改进比例反失效率模型的参数来体现种群中的信息,探讨了改进比例反失效率模型构成有限混合模型的统计性质,结合矩阵链优序或向量的优化序和T转换矩阵,研究了有限混合模型参数和混合比例的随机性质,给出了两组异质有限混合总体普通随机序成立的充分条件,丰富了异质有限混合总体的随机比较理论。With the advent of the big data era, populations frequently display distinct heterogeneity characteristics. This paper uses mixture models to characterize the heterogeneity of populations composed of multiple homogeneous individuals. Based on the parameters of a modified proportional reversed hazard rate model, we incorporate information from the population and explore the statistical properties of a finite mixture model formed by the modified proportional reversed hazard rate model. By combining matrix chain optimization or the optimization sequence of vectors with the T-transformation matrix, we study the stochastic properties of the finite mixture model’s parameters and mixing proportions. Sufficient conditions for the establishment of ordinary stochastic order for two heterogeneous finite mixture populations are provided, enriching the theory of stochastic comparisons for heterogeneous finite mixture populations.展开更多
文摘本文以十四五期间我省金融风险为研究对象,结合国内外经济、政治的复杂性与河北省现实经济发展的客观性,充分利用波动理论、预期理论、突变理论等核心方法对我省金融风险进行科学测度,力求为我省金融风险评估与预测提供有力的理论基础和实践工具。首先,准确刻画十四五期间河北省未来经济预期的基本状态,制定切实科学的经济预期评估指标与分类标准,建立系统的经济预期评估体系,保证经济预期研判的完整性、科学性,为金融风险评估做好宏观准备。其次,针对现有的波动理论,建立具有体制转换周期特征的随机波动系统,融入体制转换因子与经济预期因子,精准分析十四五期间金融市场风险的一般规律,给出科学评估我省金融风险的一般方法和指标体系。再次,引入突变理论,模拟突发情况及金融风险骤然演变对我省经济的影响。通过对某一金融市场的核心数据运用统计与优化的方法,对收集的数据进行清洗、处理,确保系统参数估计的科学性与有效性,检验突变理论的可靠性和一致性,做到金融风险提前预测,及时防控。最后,结合上述模型,对河北省金融风险进行实证研究,并对十四五期间金融市场风险进行预测研究,检验新型波动系统的稳定性与一致性,并用于指导金融风险防控的实践。This paper takes the financial risk of our province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period as the research object, combines the complexity of domestic and foreign economy and politics and the objectivity of the real economic development of Hebei Province, makes full use of the core methods such as fluctuation theory, expectation theory and catastrophe theory to scientifically measure the financial risk of our province and strives to provide a powerful theoretical basis and practical tool for the financial risk assessment and prediction of our province. First of all, it accurately describes the basic state of the future economic expectation of Hebei Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, formulates practical and scientific economic expectation evaluation indicators and classification standards, establishes a systematic economic expectation evaluation system, ensures the integrity and scientific nature of economic expectation research and judgment, and makes macro preparations for financial risk assessment. Secondly, according to the existing volatility theory, this paper establishes a stochastic volatility system with the characteristics of regime switching cycle, integrates regime switching factor and economic expectation factor, accurately analyzes the general law of financial market risk during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and gives the general method and index system of scientific evaluation of financial risk in our province. Thirdly, the abrupt change theory is introduced to simulate the impact of emergencies and sudden evolution of financial risks on the economy of our province. Through the use of statistics and optimization methods for the core data of a financial market, the collected data are cleaned and processed to ensure the scientific and effective estimation of system parameters, test the reliability and consistency of mutation theory, and achieve the prediction of financial risks in advance, timely prevention and control. Finally, combined with the above model, this paper makes an empirical study on the financial risk of Hebei Province and makes a forecast study on the financial market risk during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, tests the stability and consistency of the new volatility system, and guides the practice of financial risk prevention and control.
文摘目的基于随机森林模型探讨中青年乳腺癌患者未成年子女养育忧虑现状及其影响因素,为临床干预提供依据。方法采用便利抽样法,选择2023年4月至12月在本市某三级甲等综合医院乳腺外科接受诊疗的275例乳腺癌患者为研究对象。采用自行设计的一般资料问卷、中文版养育忧虑问卷(parenting concerns questionnaire,PCQ)、领悟社会支持量表(perceived social support scale,PSSS)、癌症复发担忧量表(concern about recurrence scale,CARS)、简易疾病感知量表(brief illness perception questionnaire,BIPQ)进行调查。基于随机森林模型和最小绝对收缩和选择算法(least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,LASSO)对变量进行重要性排序和变量筛选,将筛选后的变量纳入多元线性回归分析。结果260例患者完成研究。中青年乳腺癌患者养育忧虑得分为(51.1±6.4)分。将随机森林及LASSO回归确定的变量,纳入多元线性回归分析结果显示(并按影响因素重次要排序),疾病感知越高、领悟社会支持越低、癌症复发担忧越大、肿瘤分期Ⅳ期、离异/丧偶、未成年子女个数越多的中青年乳腺癌患者养育的忧虑越严重(均P<0.05),解释总变异的57.0%。结论中青年乳腺癌患者养育忧虑处于中等偏高水平,受多种因素影响,医护人员应针对性制订措施给予干预,以便降低患者养育忧虑水平。
文摘随着对地观测技术的飞速发展,我们能够以前所未有的精度和频率获取地球表面的各种数据,通过进行更精细的空间分析和时间序列分析,可以揭示地理环境变化的深层次规律。本文旨在建立中国降水量变化趋势及其与海拔、坡度、土地利用之间的预测模型。通过对降水量、地形因素和五种主要土地覆盖类型的相关性分析,运用Logistic回归和随机森林模型探讨了这些因素对灾害发生的共同影响机制。此外,采用ARIMA时间序列模型预测了未来2025年到2035年间的降水量和土地利用格局,并结合随机森林模型评估了此期间各地区暴雨灾害风险的空间分布。研究结果揭示了在极端天气条件下最脆弱的地区,为灾害防范和土地规划提供了重要参考。With the rapid advancement of remote sensing technologies, we are now able to obtain various data on the Earth’s surface with unprecedented accuracy and frequency. Through more refined spatial and time series analyses, the underlying patterns of geographical environmental changes can be revealed. This study aims to establish predictive models for the trends in precipitation changes in China and their relationships with elevation, slope, and land use. By analyzing the correlations between precipitation, topographic factors, and five major land cover types, the study employs Logistic regression and Random Forest models to explore the joint impact of these factors on the occurrence of disasters. Additionally, the ARIMA time series model is utilized to forecast precipitation and land use patterns from 2025 to 2035, while the Random Forest model is applied to assess the spatial distribution of rainfall disaster risks during this period. The results of the study highlight the most vulnerable regions under extreme weather conditions, providing valuable insights for disaster prevention and land planning.
文摘在大数据时代,总体往往呈现出显著的异质性特点。本文借助混合模型来刻画了多个同质个体构成总体的异质性。我们基于改进比例反失效率模型的参数来体现种群中的信息,探讨了改进比例反失效率模型构成有限混合模型的统计性质,结合矩阵链优序或向量的优化序和T转换矩阵,研究了有限混合模型参数和混合比例的随机性质,给出了两组异质有限混合总体普通随机序成立的充分条件,丰富了异质有限混合总体的随机比较理论。With the advent of the big data era, populations frequently display distinct heterogeneity characteristics. This paper uses mixture models to characterize the heterogeneity of populations composed of multiple homogeneous individuals. Based on the parameters of a modified proportional reversed hazard rate model, we incorporate information from the population and explore the statistical properties of a finite mixture model formed by the modified proportional reversed hazard rate model. By combining matrix chain optimization or the optimization sequence of vectors with the T-transformation matrix, we study the stochastic properties of the finite mixture model’s parameters and mixing proportions. Sufficient conditions for the establishment of ordinary stochastic order for two heterogeneous finite mixture populations are provided, enriching the theory of stochastic comparisons for heterogeneous finite mixture populations.
