Gongga Mountain, locates on the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau of China, is the highest mountain in China except summits in Tibet. Only limited meteorological data on Gongga Mountain have been published so far. Here ...Gongga Mountain, locates on the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau of China, is the highest mountain in China except summits in Tibet. Only limited meteorological data on Gongga Mountain have been published so far. Here we present the meteorological records from two stations, Moxi Station （at 1,621.7 m above sea level （a.s.1.）, 1992- 2010） and Hailuogou Station （at 2,947.8 m a.s.l., 1988-2010）, on the eastern slope of Gongga Mountain. In the past two decades, the annual precipitation decreased while the annual mean temperature increased at Hailuogou Station. Both precipitation and temperature increased at Moxi Station. The precipitation variation on the eastern slope of Gongga Mountain is influenced by both East Asian Monsoon and Indian Monsoon, so that the precipitation concentrated between May and October. The temperature variation on the eastern slope of Gongga Mountain in the past two decades showed similar trends as that of the northern hemispheric and global. In the past two decades, the temperature increased o.35℃ and o.3℃/decade at Hailuogou Station and Moxi Station respectively, which was higher than the increase extents of northern hemispheric and global temperature. The most intense warming occurred at the first decade of 21St century. The winter temperature increased more at Hailuogou Station than at Moxi Station. A remarkable increase of temperature in March was observed with only a little precipitation at both high and low altitude stations.展开更多
Driven by the global model,Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1(BCC_CSM1.1),climate change over China in the 21st century is simulated by a regional climate model(RegCM4.0)under the new emission sce...Driven by the global model,Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1(BCC_CSM1.1),climate change over China in the 21st century is simulated by a regional climate model(RegCM4.0)under the new emission scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.This is based on a period of transient simulations from 1950 to2099,with a grid spacing of 50 km.The present paper focuses on the annual mean temperature and precipitation in China over this period,with emphasis on their future changes.Validation of model performance reveals marked improvement of the RegCM4.0 model in reproducing present day temperature and precipitation relative to the driving BCC_CSM1.1 model.Significant warming is simulated by both BCC_CSM1.1 and RegCM4.0,however,spatial distribution and magnitude differ between the simulations.The high emission scenario RCP8.5 results in greater warming compared to RCP4.5.The two models project different precipitation changes,characterized by a general increase in the BCC_CSM1.1,and broader areas with decrease in the RegCM4.0 simulations.展开更多
The interannual variability of global temperature and precipitation during the last millennium is analyzed using the results of ten coupled climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Pr...The interannual variability of global temperature and precipitation during the last millennium is analyzed using the results of ten coupled climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. It is found that large temperature(precipitation) variability is most dominant at high latitudes(tropical monsoon regions), and the seasonal magnitudes are greater than the annual mean. Significant multi-decadal-scale changes exist throughout the whole period for the zonal mean of both temperature and precipitation variability, while their long-term trends are indistinctive. The volcanic forcings correlate well with the temperature variability at midlatitudes, indicating possible leading drivers for the interannual time scale climate change.展开更多
Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation i...Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years.Climate change is most evident in the foothills;however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians,which reach approximately 350 meters, on average,what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.展开更多
In this study, the sensitivities of net primary production(NPP), soil carbon, and vegetation carbon to precipitation and temperature variability over China are discussed using the state-of-the-art Lund-Potsdam-Jena dy...In this study, the sensitivities of net primary production(NPP), soil carbon, and vegetation carbon to precipitation and temperature variability over China are discussed using the state-of-the-art Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model(LPJ DGVM). The impacts of the sensitivities to precipitation variability and temperature variability on NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon are discussed. It is shown that increasing precipitation variability, representing the frequency of extreme precipitation events, leads to losses in NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon over most of China, especially in North and Northeast China where the dominant plant functional types(i.e., those with the largest simulated areal cover) are grass and boreal needle-leaved forest. The responses of NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon to decreasing precipitation variability are opposite to the responses to increasing precipitation variability. The variations in NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon in response to increasing and decreasing precipitation variability show a nonlinear asymmetry. Increasing precipitation variability results in notable interannual variation of NPP. The sensitivities of NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon to temperature variability, whether negative or positive, meaning frequent hot and cold days, are slight. The present study suggests, based on the LPJ model, that precipitation variability has a more severe impact than temperature variability on NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon.展开更多
To avoid dangerous climate change impact, the Paris Agreement sets out two ambitious goals: to limit the global warming to be well below 2 ℃ and to pursue effort for the global warming to be below 1.5 ℃ above the ...To avoid dangerous climate change impact, the Paris Agreement sets out two ambitious goals: to limit the global warming to be well below 2 ℃ and to pursue effort for the global warming to be below 1.5 ℃ above the pre-industrial level. As climate change risks may be region-dependent, changes in magnitude and probability of extreme precipitation over China are investigated under those two global warming levels based on simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Projects Phase 5. The focus is on the added changes due to the additional half a degree warming from 1.5 ℃ to 2 ℃ . Results show that regional average changes in the magnitude do not depend on the return periods with a relative increase around 7% and 11% at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, respectively. The additional half a degree global warming adds an additional increase in the magnitude by nearly 4%. The regional average changes in term of occurrence probabilities show dependence on the return periods, with rarer events(longer return periods) having larger increase of risk. For the 100-year historical event, the probability is projected to increase by a factor of 1.6 and 2.4 at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, respectively.The projected changes in extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios.展开更多
基金funded by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZCX2-YW-BR-21)National Science Foundation of China(Grant No. 41272200)
文摘Gongga Mountain, locates on the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau of China, is the highest mountain in China except summits in Tibet. Only limited meteorological data on Gongga Mountain have been published so far. Here we present the meteorological records from two stations, Moxi Station （at 1,621.7 m above sea level （a.s.1.）, 1992- 2010） and Hailuogou Station （at 2,947.8 m a.s.l., 1988-2010）, on the eastern slope of Gongga Mountain. In the past two decades, the annual precipitation decreased while the annual mean temperature increased at Hailuogou Station. Both precipitation and temperature increased at Moxi Station. The precipitation variation on the eastern slope of Gongga Mountain is influenced by both East Asian Monsoon and Indian Monsoon, so that the precipitation concentrated between May and October. The temperature variation on the eastern slope of Gongga Mountain in the past two decades showed similar trends as that of the northern hemispheric and global. In the past two decades, the temperature increased o.35℃ and o.3℃/decade at Hailuogou Station and Moxi Station respectively, which was higher than the increase extents of northern hemispheric and global temperature. The most intense warming occurred at the first decade of 21St century. The winter temperature increased more at Hailuogou Station than at Moxi Station. A remarkable increase of temperature in March was observed with only a little precipitation at both high and low altitude stations.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB 950903)the China-UK-Swiss Adapting to Climate Change in China Project (ACCC)-Climate Science
文摘Driven by the global model,Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1(BCC_CSM1.1),climate change over China in the 21st century is simulated by a regional climate model(RegCM4.0)under the new emission scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.This is based on a period of transient simulations from 1950 to2099,with a grid spacing of 50 km.The present paper focuses on the annual mean temperature and precipitation in China over this period,with emphasis on their future changes.Validation of model performance reveals marked improvement of the RegCM4.0 model in reproducing present day temperature and precipitation relative to the driving BCC_CSM1.1 model.Significant warming is simulated by both BCC_CSM1.1 and RegCM4.0,however,spatial distribution and magnitude differ between the simulations.The high emission scenario RCP8.5 results in greater warming compared to RCP4.5.The two models project different precipitation changes,characterized by a general increase in the BCC_CSM1.1,and broader areas with decrease in the RegCM4.0 simulations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41222034 and 41421004)
文摘The interannual variability of global temperature and precipitation during the last millennium is analyzed using the results of ten coupled climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. It is found that large temperature(precipitation) variability is most dominant at high latitudes(tropical monsoon regions), and the seasonal magnitudes are greater than the annual mean. Significant multi-decadal-scale changes exist throughout the whole period for the zonal mean of both temperature and precipitation variability, while their long-term trends are indistinctive. The volcanic forcings correlate well with the temperature variability at midlatitudes, indicating possible leading drivers for the interannual time scale climate change.
基金the FORECOM project (Forest cover changes in mountainous regions – drivers, trajectories and implications, PSRP 008/2010)supported by a grant from Switzerland through the Swiss contribution to the enlarged European Union
文摘Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years.Climate change is most evident in the foothills;however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians,which reach approximately 350 meters, on average,what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.
基金Funding was provided by grants from the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955202)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375111)+1 种基金the LASG Free Exploration Fundthe LASG State Key Laboratory Special Fund
文摘In this study, the sensitivities of net primary production(NPP), soil carbon, and vegetation carbon to precipitation and temperature variability over China are discussed using the state-of-the-art Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model(LPJ DGVM). The impacts of the sensitivities to precipitation variability and temperature variability on NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon are discussed. It is shown that increasing precipitation variability, representing the frequency of extreme precipitation events, leads to losses in NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon over most of China, especially in North and Northeast China where the dominant plant functional types(i.e., those with the largest simulated areal cover) are grass and boreal needle-leaved forest. The responses of NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon to decreasing precipitation variability are opposite to the responses to increasing precipitation variability. The variations in NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon in response to increasing and decreasing precipitation variability show a nonlinear asymmetry. Increasing precipitation variability results in notable interannual variation of NPP. The sensitivities of NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon to temperature variability, whether negative or positive, meaning frequent hot and cold days, are slight. The present study suggests, based on the LPJ model, that precipitation variability has a more severe impact than temperature variability on NPP, soil carbon, and vegetation carbon.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant 2017YFA0603804)the State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41230528)+1 种基金the China Scholarship Council(CSC)under the State Scholarship Fundsupported by the French ANR Project China-Trend-Stream
文摘To avoid dangerous climate change impact, the Paris Agreement sets out two ambitious goals: to limit the global warming to be well below 2 ℃ and to pursue effort for the global warming to be below 1.5 ℃ above the pre-industrial level. As climate change risks may be region-dependent, changes in magnitude and probability of extreme precipitation over China are investigated under those two global warming levels based on simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Projects Phase 5. The focus is on the added changes due to the additional half a degree warming from 1.5 ℃ to 2 ℃ . Results show that regional average changes in the magnitude do not depend on the return periods with a relative increase around 7% and 11% at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, respectively. The additional half a degree global warming adds an additional increase in the magnitude by nearly 4%. The regional average changes in term of occurrence probabilities show dependence on the return periods, with rarer events(longer return periods) having larger increase of risk. For the 100-year historical event, the probability is projected to increase by a factor of 1.6 and 2.4 at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, respectively.The projected changes in extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios.
