黄河源区是黄河流域的重要组成部分,其径流变化影响着整个流域的水资源和生态系统安全。本文利用1976—2014年黄河源区径流、气象、数字高程模型DEM(Digital Elevation Model)、土地利用、土壤以及第六次国际耦合模式比较计划CMIP6(6thC...黄河源区是黄河流域的重要组成部分,其径流变化影响着整个流域的水资源和生态系统安全。本文利用1976—2014年黄河源区径流、气象、数字高程模型DEM(Digital Elevation Model)、土地利用、土壤以及第六次国际耦合模式比较计划CMIP6(6thCoupled Model Inter-comparison Project)中8个模式的3个未来情景(SSP126、SSP245和SSP585)气象数据,基于SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)水文模型,对黄河源区主要水文站的径流进行了模拟、未来预估和变化分析。研究表明:(1)SWAT模型对黄河源区历史径流模拟的适用性较好,径流模拟的不确定性较小,模拟值较接近于实测值。(2)参数敏感性分析表明27个与水文有关的参数都对径流模拟有一定的影响。其中,土壤蒸发补偿因子、湿润条件II下SCS(Soil Conservation Sevice)径流曲线数、浅层地下水径流系数的敏感性较强,径流受陆面蒸散发、下垫面和降水影响较大。(3)降水是影响未来径流的主要因素。在SSP126和SSP245两种未来情景下,吉迈、玛曲和唐乃亥3个水文站在2021—2100年的两个时期(2021—2060年和2061—2100年)年均流量均呈增加趋势;而在SSP585情景下,2021—2060年呈增加趋势,2061—2100年则呈减少趋势。相对于1976—2014年,未来近期(2021—2060年)唐乃亥和玛曲站年均流量在SSP585情景下增加幅度最低,SSP126情景下增加幅度最高;吉迈站在SSP245情景下增加幅度最高,SSP126情景下增加幅度最低;未来远期(2061—2100年)3个水文站除了吉迈站是在SSP126情景下增加幅度最低外,其余均是在SSP585情景下增加幅度最低,SSP245情景下增加幅度最高。研究结果可为黄河流域水资源管理、防洪蓄水和生态环境保护等提供科学依据与理论支撑。展开更多
The water erosion prediction project （WEPP） model is a popular water erosion prediction tool developed on the basis of the physical processes of water erosion. Although WEPP has been widely used around the world, it...The water erosion prediction project （WEPP） model is a popular water erosion prediction tool developed on the basis of the physical processes of water erosion. Although WEPP has been widely used around the world, its application in China is still insufficient. In this study, the performance of WEPP used to estimate the runoff and soil loss on purple soil （Calcaric Regosols in FAO taxonomy） sloping cropland was assessed with the data from runoff plots under simulated rainfall conditions. Based on measured soil properties, runoff and erosion parameters, namely effective hydraulic conductivity, inter-rill erodibility, rill erodibility, and critical shear stress were determined to be 2.68 mm h-1, 5.54 x l0^6 kg s-1 m-4, 0.027 s m-1 and 3-5 Pa, respectively, by using the recommended equations in the WEPP user manual. The simulated results were not good due to the low Nash efficiency of 0.41 for runoff and negative Nash efficiency for soil loss. After the four parameters were calibrated, WEPP performed better for soil loss prediction with a Nash efficiency of 0.76. The different results indicated that the equations recommended by WEPP to calculate parameters such as erodiblity and critical shear stress are not suitable for the purple soil areas, Sichuan Province, China. Although the predicted results can be accepted by optimizing the runoff and erosion parameters, more research related to the determination of erodibility and critical sheer stress must be conducted to improve the application of WEPP in the purple soil areas.展开更多
The development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system with a hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure during the MAP-D-PHASE Project is described in this paper. This chain includes both pr...The development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system with a hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure during the MAP-D-PHASE Project is described in this paper. This chain includes both probabilistic and deterministic forecasts. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. The observed data to run the control simulations were supplied by ARPA-Piemonte. The analysis is focused on Maggiore Lake basin, an Alpine basin between North-West of Italy and Southern Switzerland. Two hindcasts during the D-PHASE period are discussed in order to evaluate certain effects regarding discharge forecasts due to hydro-meteorological sources of uncertainties. In particular, in the June convective event it is analysed how the effect of meteorological model spatial resolution can influence the discharge forecasts over mountain basins, while in the November stratiform event how the effect of the initial conditions of soil moisture can modify meteorological warnings. The study shows how the introduction of alert codes appears to be useful for decision makers to give them a spread of forecasted QDFs with the probability of event occurrence, but also how alert warnings issued on the basis of forecasted precipitation only are not always reliable.展开更多
文摘论文应用第5次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)中5个全球气候模式(Global Climate Models,GCMs)和3种典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)在全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃下的预估结果,分析了淮河中上游地区未来的气候变化特征。进一步基于SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)水文模型定量预估了气候变化对该区域径流量的影响,并量化了预估结果的不确定性。结果表明:SWAT模型在淮河中上游对月径流量具有较好的模拟能力。在全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃下,淮河中上游年平均气温分别较基准期(1986—2005年)增加1.1℃和1.7℃;年降水量较基准期分别相应增加4%和7%;基于SWAT模型预估的年径流量较基准期分别增加5%和8%。未来气候变化不会改变月径流分布特征,年内径流仍集中在盛夏和初秋(6—9月)。预估的月丰水流量明显增加,尤其当全球增温达到2.0℃后,出现洪涝的风险明显增大。未来降水量和径流量预估都存在较大的不确定性,不确定性主要来源于GCMs,在全球增温2.0℃下预估的不确定性更大。
文摘黄河源区是黄河流域的重要组成部分,其径流变化影响着整个流域的水资源和生态系统安全。本文利用1976—2014年黄河源区径流、气象、数字高程模型DEM(Digital Elevation Model)、土地利用、土壤以及第六次国际耦合模式比较计划CMIP6(6thCoupled Model Inter-comparison Project)中8个模式的3个未来情景(SSP126、SSP245和SSP585)气象数据,基于SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)水文模型,对黄河源区主要水文站的径流进行了模拟、未来预估和变化分析。研究表明:(1)SWAT模型对黄河源区历史径流模拟的适用性较好,径流模拟的不确定性较小,模拟值较接近于实测值。(2)参数敏感性分析表明27个与水文有关的参数都对径流模拟有一定的影响。其中,土壤蒸发补偿因子、湿润条件II下SCS(Soil Conservation Sevice)径流曲线数、浅层地下水径流系数的敏感性较强,径流受陆面蒸散发、下垫面和降水影响较大。(3)降水是影响未来径流的主要因素。在SSP126和SSP245两种未来情景下,吉迈、玛曲和唐乃亥3个水文站在2021—2100年的两个时期(2021—2060年和2061—2100年)年均流量均呈增加趋势;而在SSP585情景下,2021—2060年呈增加趋势,2061—2100年则呈减少趋势。相对于1976—2014年,未来近期(2021—2060年)唐乃亥和玛曲站年均流量在SSP585情景下增加幅度最低,SSP126情景下增加幅度最高;吉迈站在SSP245情景下增加幅度最高,SSP126情景下增加幅度最低;未来远期(2061—2100年)3个水文站除了吉迈站是在SSP126情景下增加幅度最低外,其余均是在SSP585情景下增加幅度最低,SSP245情景下增加幅度最高。研究结果可为黄河流域水资源管理、防洪蓄水和生态环境保护等提供科学依据与理论支撑。
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No. 40871134)the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University(Grant No.2007-KF-01)
文摘The water erosion prediction project （WEPP） model is a popular water erosion prediction tool developed on the basis of the physical processes of water erosion. Although WEPP has been widely used around the world, its application in China is still insufficient. In this study, the performance of WEPP used to estimate the runoff and soil loss on purple soil （Calcaric Regosols in FAO taxonomy） sloping cropland was assessed with the data from runoff plots under simulated rainfall conditions. Based on measured soil properties, runoff and erosion parameters, namely effective hydraulic conductivity, inter-rill erodibility, rill erodibility, and critical shear stress were determined to be 2.68 mm h-1, 5.54 x l0^6 kg s-1 m-4, 0.027 s m-1 and 3-5 Pa, respectively, by using the recommended equations in the WEPP user manual. The simulated results were not good due to the low Nash efficiency of 0.41 for runoff and negative Nash efficiency for soil loss. After the four parameters were calibrated, WEPP performed better for soil loss prediction with a Nash efficiency of 0.76. The different results indicated that the equations recommended by WEPP to calculate parameters such as erodiblity and critical shear stress are not suitable for the purple soil areas, Sichuan Province, China. Although the predicted results can be accepted by optimizing the runoff and erosion parameters, more research related to the determination of erodibility and critical sheer stress must be conducted to improve the application of WEPP in the purple soil areas.
文摘The development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system with a hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure during the MAP-D-PHASE Project is described in this paper. This chain includes both probabilistic and deterministic forecasts. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. The observed data to run the control simulations were supplied by ARPA-Piemonte. The analysis is focused on Maggiore Lake basin, an Alpine basin between North-West of Italy and Southern Switzerland. Two hindcasts during the D-PHASE period are discussed in order to evaluate certain effects regarding discharge forecasts due to hydro-meteorological sources of uncertainties. In particular, in the June convective event it is analysed how the effect of meteorological model spatial resolution can influence the discharge forecasts over mountain basins, while in the November stratiform event how the effect of the initial conditions of soil moisture can modify meteorological warnings. The study shows how the introduction of alert codes appears to be useful for decision makers to give them a spread of forecasted QDFs with the probability of event occurrence, but also how alert warnings issued on the basis of forecasted precipitation only are not always reliable.
