本文利用常规天气图、NCEP全球分析资料及自动站观测资料等对2016年8月22—23日海东市强降雨天气过程进行分析。结果表明,副高边缘西南暖湿气流同南下冷空气共同作用,大尺度高低空环流系统的有利配置,地面辐合线促进水汽辐合及垂直输送...本文利用常规天气图、NCEP全球分析资料及自动站观测资料等对2016年8月22—23日海东市强降雨天气过程进行分析。结果表明,副高边缘西南暖湿气流同南下冷空气共同作用,大尺度高低空环流系统的有利配置,地面辐合线促进水汽辐合及垂直输送,成为强降雨有利发展机制。海东市水汽充足;低层正涡度、高层负涡度的高低空配置促使低层产生强烈辐合上升运动,为强降雨天气提供了有利的动力条件。500 h Pa与700 h Pa的Δθse≥10 K,K指数达36℃,SI<0℃,CAPE值为786.3 J/kg,具备热力及不稳定能量条件。Δθse700-500≥10 K、K指数、SI及CAPE均可作为海东市强降雨天气预报的重要指标。展开更多
[Objective] The paper is to analyze physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather. [Method] Using radar data of Jinan station during 2002 and 2008, combined with soundi...[Objective] The paper is to analyze physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather. [Method] Using radar data of Jinan station during 2002 and 2008, combined with sounding data, the physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather are compared and analyzed. [Result] The smaller Sl is conducive to the generation of hail weather. When K〉 35 ~C, the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly increased; when K〈20 ^（3, the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly decreased. When CAPE value is greater than 1 500 J/KG, the probability for occurrence of hail weather is significantly decreased, while the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly in- creased. The possibility for occurrence of hail monomer is small when the wind shear is less than 5 m/s; and it is large while wind shear is greater than 20 m/s. The radar forecasting indexes of hail monomer is as follows： VIL value reaches 35 kg/m2 （May）, 43 kg/m2 （June and July）, the monomer height is greater than 9 km, the maximum reflectivity factor is larger than 60 dBz, strong center height reaches 3.3 km （May）, 4.3 km （June） and 5.5 km （July）; VlL value of heavy rainfall monomer generally is below 25 kg/m2. [Conclusion] The paper provides basis form prediction of hail and heavy rainfall.展开更多
文摘本文利用常规天气图、NCEP全球分析资料及自动站观测资料等对2016年8月22—23日海东市强降雨天气过程进行分析。结果表明,副高边缘西南暖湿气流同南下冷空气共同作用,大尺度高低空环流系统的有利配置,地面辐合线促进水汽辐合及垂直输送,成为强降雨有利发展机制。海东市水汽充足;低层正涡度、高层负涡度的高低空配置促使低层产生强烈辐合上升运动,为强降雨天气提供了有利的动力条件。500 h Pa与700 h Pa的Δθse≥10 K,K指数达36℃,SI<0℃,CAPE值为786.3 J/kg,具备热力及不稳定能量条件。Δθse700-500≥10 K、K指数、SI及CAPE均可作为海东市强降雨天气预报的重要指标。
基金Supported by Science and Technology Development Project of Shandong Science and Technology Hall(2010GSF10805)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41140036)~~
文摘[Objective] The paper is to analyze physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather. [Method] Using radar data of Jinan station during 2002 and 2008, combined with sounding data, the physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather are compared and analyzed. [Result] The smaller Sl is conducive to the generation of hail weather. When K〉 35 ~C, the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly increased; when K〈20 ^（3, the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly decreased. When CAPE value is greater than 1 500 J/KG, the probability for occurrence of hail weather is significantly decreased, while the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly in- creased. The possibility for occurrence of hail monomer is small when the wind shear is less than 5 m/s; and it is large while wind shear is greater than 20 m/s. The radar forecasting indexes of hail monomer is as follows： VIL value reaches 35 kg/m2 （May）, 43 kg/m2 （June and July）, the monomer height is greater than 9 km, the maximum reflectivity factor is larger than 60 dBz, strong center height reaches 3.3 km （May）, 4.3 km （June） and 5.5 km （July）; VlL value of heavy rainfall monomer generally is below 25 kg/m2. [Conclusion] The paper provides basis form prediction of hail and heavy rainfall.
