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基于价格随机的苏北杨树人工林多碳库最优轮伐模型构建与评估
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作者 王晓雯 余智涵 杨红强 《生态学报》 北大核心 2025年第5期2326-2336,共11页
发展林业碳汇、加强人工林的可持续经营是中国实现“碳中和”目标的重要手段。价格随机和价格不确定性是影响森林经营者决策最优轮伐的重要因素。基于拓展的Faustmann⁃Hartman模型,构建了包含生物量碳库、死亡有机质碳库、木质林产品碳... 发展林业碳汇、加强人工林的可持续经营是中国实现“碳中和”目标的重要手段。价格随机和价格不确定性是影响森林经营者决策最优轮伐的重要因素。基于拓展的Faustmann⁃Hartman模型,构建了包含生物量碳库、死亡有机质碳库、木质林产品碳库和生物质能源碳库的多碳库最优轮伐决策模型,分析了价格随机对苏北杨树人工林最优轮伐期的影响,评估了多碳库情境下森林经营者营林收益水平。结果表明:(1)基准情景下,依次纳入木材收益、生物量、死亡有机质、木质林产品和生物质能源碳库收益的苏北杨树最优轮伐期均在8—9年之间,依次纳入多种碳库收益未对森林经营者的采伐决策产生过多干扰;(2)在中国现行碳价格水平下,纳入多碳库收益会持续提高土地期望值,全面考虑营林过程中的碳汇收益可提升苏北杨树经营者收益约191%,经济潜力广阔;(3)敏感性分析表明,贴现率、木材和碳汇的长期均衡价格是影响森林经营者管理决策的重要因素。相比之下,木材和碳价格波动的影响相对较小,提升市场长期稳定价格意义凸显。研究提出了应加强林业多碳库碳汇能力监测与评估分析、促进木材价格稳定上涨、推动碳配额与中国核证自愿减排量市场有效衔接、兼顾木材和碳汇生产能力以及重视长期经营中多重风险防范的苏北杨树可持续经营对策建议。 展开更多
关键词 可持续经营 Faustmann⁃Hartman模型 多碳库 价格随机 杨树人工林
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Equality Testing for Soil Grid Unit Resolutions to Polygon Unit Scales with DNDC Modeling of Regional SOC Pools 被引量:2
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作者 YU Dongsheng PAN Yue +4 位作者 ZHANG Haidong WANG Xiyang NI Yunlong ZHANG Liming SHI Xue-zheng 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第4期552-568,共17页
Matching soil grid unit resolutions with polygon unit map scales is important to minimize the uncertainty of regional soil organic carbon(SOC) pool simulation due to their strong influences on the modeling.A series of... Matching soil grid unit resolutions with polygon unit map scales is important to minimize the uncertainty of regional soil organic carbon(SOC) pool simulation due to their strong influences on the modeling.A series of soil grid units at varying cell sizes was derived from soil polygon units at six map scales,namely,1:50 000(C5),1:200 000(D2),1:500 000(P5),1:1 000 000(N1),1:4 000 000(N4) and 1:14 000 000(N14),in the Taihu Region of China.Both soil unit formats were used for regional SOC pool simulation with a De Nitrification-DeC omposition(DNDC) process-based model,which spans the time period from 1982 to 2000 at the six map scales.Four indices,namely,soil type number(STN),area(AREA),average SOC density(ASOCD) and total SOC stocks(SOCS) of surface paddy soils that were simulated by the DNDC,were distinguished from all these soil polygon and grid units.Subjecting to the four index values(IV) from the parent polygon units,the variations in an index value(VIV,%) from the grid units were used to assess its dataset accuracy and redundancy,which reflects the uncertainty in the simulation of SOC pools.Optimal soil grid unit resolutions were generated and suggested for the DNDC simulation of regional SOC pools,matching their respective soil polygon unit map scales.With these optimal raster resolutions,the soil grid units datasets can have the same accuracy as their parent polygon units datasets without any redundancy,when VIV < 1% was assumed to be a criterion for all four indices.A quadratic curve regression model,namely,y = – 0.80 × 10^(–6)x^2 + 0.0228 x + 0.0211(R^2 = 0.9994,P < 0.05),and a power function model R? = 10.394?^(0.2153)(R^2 = 0.9759,P < 0.05) were revealed,which describe the relationship between the optimal soil grid unit resolution(y,km) and soil polygon unit map scale(1:10 000x),the ratio(R?,%) of the optimal soil grid size to average polygon patch size(?,km^2) and the ?,with the highest R^2 among different mathematical regressions,respectively.This knowledge may facilitate the grid partitioning of regions during the investigation and simulation of SOC pool dynamics at a certain map scale,and be referenced to other landscape polygon patches' mesh partition. 展开更多
关键词 soil organic carbon(SOC) soil grid unit resolutions soil polygon unit map scales DeNitrification-DeComposition(DNDC) model SOC pools
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