Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. We proposed in this paper an improved grey method (GM) to overcome the disadvantages of the general GM(1,1)....Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. We proposed in this paper an improved grey method (GM) to overcome the disadvantages of the general GM(1,1). In the improved GM(1,1), a new background value formula is deduced and Markov-chain sign estimation is imbedded into the residual modification model. We tested the efficiency and accuracy of our model by applying it to the power demand forecasting in Taiwan. Experimental results demonstrate the new method has obviously a higher prediction accuracy than the general model.展开更多
Since the beginning of the year 2000, the power demands in Guangdong, Zhejiang provinces and Beijing Tianjin-Tangshan district have been increasing dramatically, power supply shortages have appeared again. This paper...Since the beginning of the year 2000, the power demands in Guangdong, Zhejiang provinces and Beijing Tianjin-Tangshan district have been increasing dramatically, power supply shortages have appeared again. This paper analyzes the reasons for the current power supply shortages in Shenzhen district and the problems existing presently in Shenzhen power system. It indicates that, to strengthen power demand forecast, to speed up power construction steps and with ’to develop power ahead of the rest’ as a fundamental target, are the precondition to the long term, steady development of power industry.展开更多
文摘Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. We proposed in this paper an improved grey method (GM) to overcome the disadvantages of the general GM(1,1). In the improved GM(1,1), a new background value formula is deduced and Markov-chain sign estimation is imbedded into the residual modification model. We tested the efficiency and accuracy of our model by applying it to the power demand forecasting in Taiwan. Experimental results demonstrate the new method has obviously a higher prediction accuracy than the general model.
文摘Since the beginning of the year 2000, the power demands in Guangdong, Zhejiang provinces and Beijing Tianjin-Tangshan district have been increasing dramatically, power supply shortages have appeared again. This paper analyzes the reasons for the current power supply shortages in Shenzhen district and the problems existing presently in Shenzhen power system. It indicates that, to strengthen power demand forecast, to speed up power construction steps and with ’to develop power ahead of the rest’ as a fundamental target, are the precondition to the long term, steady development of power industry.
