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Experimental analysis of sand particles' lift-off and incident velocities in wind-blown sand flux 被引量:10
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作者 Li Xie Zhibao Dong Xiaojing Zheng 《Acta Mechanica Sinica》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2005年第6期564-573,共10页
The probability distributions of sand particles' lift-off and incident velocities in a wind-blown sand flux play very important roles in the simulation of the wind-blown sand movement. In this paper, the vertical and... The probability distributions of sand particles' lift-off and incident velocities in a wind-blown sand flux play very important roles in the simulation of the wind-blown sand movement. In this paper, the vertical and the horizontal speeds of sand particles located at 1.0 mm above a sand-bed in a wind-blown sand flux are observed with the aid of Phase Doppler Anemometry (PDA) in a wind tunnel. Based on the experimental data, the probability distributions of not only the vertical lift-off speed but also the lift-off velocity as well as its horizontal component and the incident velocity as well as its vertical and horizontal components can be obtained by the equal distance histogram method. It is found, according to the results of the X^2-test for these probability distributions, that the probability density functions (pdf's) of the sand particles' lift-off and incident velocities as well as their vertical com- ponents are described by the Gamma density function with different peak values and shapes and the downwind incident and lift-off horizontal speeds, respectively, can be described by the lognormal and the Gamma density functions, These pdf's depend on not only the sand particle diameter but also the wind speed. 展开更多
关键词 Wind-blown sand movement - Tunnel experiment- Incident velocity. Lift-off velocity probability density
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Cognitive amplify-and-forward dual-hop relay networks over α-μ fading channels 被引量:2
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作者 HAN Yan-bo GAO Li YAN Wen-hua 《Journal of Measurement Science and Instrumentation》 CAS CSCD 2019年第1期69-75,共7页
This paper provides an analytic performance evaluation of dual-hop cognitive amplify-and-forward (AF) relaying networks over independent nonidentically distributed (i.n.i.d.) fading channels. Two different transmit po... This paper provides an analytic performance evaluation of dual-hop cognitive amplify-and-forward (AF) relaying networks over independent nonidentically distributed (i.n.i.d.) fading channels. Two different transmit power constraint strategies at the secondary network are proposed to investigate the performance of the secondary network. In the case of combined power constraint,the maximum tolerable interference power on the primary network and the maximum transmit power at the secondary network are considered. Closed-form lower bound and its asymptotic expression for the outage probability (OP) are achieved. Utilizing the above results,average symbol error probability (ABEP) at high signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are also derived. In order to further study the performance of dual-hop cognitive AF relaying networks,the Closed-form lower bounds and asymptotic expressions for OP with single power constraint of the tolerable interference on the primary network is also obtained. Both analytical and simulation are employed to validate the accuracy of the theoretical analysis. The results show that the secondary network obtains a better performance when higher power constraint is employed. 展开更多
关键词 cognitive relay network amplify-and-forward relay outage probability α-μ fading channels
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Performance Analysis of Physical Layer Security over α-η-κ-μ Fading Channels 被引量:1
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作者 Shaobo Jia Jiayan Zhang +1 位作者 Honglin Zhao Yao Xu 《China Communications》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第11期138-148,共11页
In this paper, we consider the secure data transmission over α-η-κ-μ fading channels, which are recently proposed to encompass nearly all the well-known statistical models adopted in the literature. In particular,... In this paper, we consider the secure data transmission over α-η-κ-μ fading channels, which are recently proposed to encompass nearly all the well-known statistical models adopted in the literature. In particular, we address the secrecy performance in terms of the average secrecy capacity(ASC) and the secrecy outage probability(SOP), for which novel analytical expressions are derived. Simulation results verify the analysis and demonstrate the impact of the physical parameters on the secrecy performance of this new channel fading model. 展开更多
关键词 Physical layer security α-η-κ-μgeneralized fading channels average secrecycapacity secrecy outage probability
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Plasma Post Oxidation of Plasma Nitrocarburized SKD 61 Steel 被引量:2
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作者 Insup Lee Kwang-Ho Jeong 《Journal of Materials Science & Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2008年第1期136-138,共3页
Plasma nitrocarburizing and plasma oxidizing treatments were performed to improve the wear and corrosion resistance of SKD 61 steel.Plasma nitrocarburizing was conducted for 12 h at 540℃in the nitrogen, hydrogen and ... Plasma nitrocarburizing and plasma oxidizing treatments were performed to improve the wear and corrosion resistance of SKD 61 steel.Plasma nitrocarburizing was conducted for 12 h at 540℃in the nitrogen, hydrogen and methane atmosphere to produce theε-Fe-(2-3)(N,C) phase.The compound layer produced by plasma nitrocarburising was predominantly composed ofε-phase,with a small proportion ofγ′-Fe-4 (N,C) phase. The thickness of the compound layer and the diffusion layer are about 10μm and about 200μm,respectively. Plasma post oxidation was performed on the nitrocarburized samples with various oxygen/hydrogen ratio at constant temperature of 500℃for 1 h.The very thin magnetite (Fe-3O-4) layer of 1-2μm in thickness on top of the compound layer was obtained.Anodic polarization test revealed that plasma nitrocarburizing process contributed a significant improvement of corrosion resistance of SKD 61 steel.However,the corrosion characteristics of the nitrocarburized compound layer was deteriorated by oxidation treatment. 展开更多
关键词 Plasma nitrocarburizing post oxidation ε-Fe2-3(N C) γ′-Fe4(N C) Fe3O4
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Development of damage probability matrices based on Greek earthquake damage data 被引量:3
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作者 Anastasia K. Eleftheriadou Athanasios I. Karabinis 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2011年第1期129-141,共13页
A comprehensive study is presented for empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of typical structural types, representative of the building stock of Southern Europe, based on a large set of damage statistics. The ob... A comprehensive study is presented for empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of typical structural types, representative of the building stock of Southern Europe, based on a large set of damage statistics. The observational database was obtained from post-earthquake surveys carried out in the area struck by the September 7, 1999 Athens earthquake. After analysis of the collected observational data, a unified damage database has been created which comprises 180,945 damaged buildings from/after the near-field area of the earthquake. The damaged buildings are classified in specific structural types, according to the materials, seismic codes and construction techniques in Southern Europe. The seismic demand is described in terms of both the regional macroseismic intensity and the ratio αg/ao, where αg is the maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the earthquake event and ao is the unique value PGA that characterizes each municipality shown on the Greek hazard map. The relative and cumulative frequencies of the different damage states for each structural type and each intensity level are computed in terms of damage ratio. Damage probability matrices (DPMs) and vulnerability curves are obtained for specific structural types. A comparison analysis is fulfilled between the produced and the existing vulnerability models. 展开更多
关键词 seismic vulnerability observational earthquake damage damage probability matrices (DPMs) vulnerability curves post-earthquake surveys Athens earthquake existing buildings
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On the non-Gaussian errors in high-z supernovae type Ia data
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作者 Meghendra Singh Ashwini Pandey +2 位作者 Amit Sharma Shashikant Gupta Satendra Sharma 《Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第11期53-56,共4页
The nature of random errors in any data set is Gaussian, which is a well established fact according to the Central Limit Theorem. Supernovae type Ia data have played a crucial role in major discoveries in cosmology. U... The nature of random errors in any data set is Gaussian, which is a well established fact according to the Central Limit Theorem. Supernovae type Ia data have played a crucial role in major discoveries in cosmology. Unlike in laboratory experiments, astronomical measurements cannot be performed in controlled situations. Thus, errors in astronomical data can be more severe in terms of systematics and non-Gaussianity compared to those of laboratory experiments. In this paper, we use the Kolmogorov-Smiruov statistic to test non-Gaussianity in high-z supernovae data. We apply this statistic to four data sets, i.e., Gold data (2004), Gold data (2007), the Union2 catalog and the Union2.1 data set for our analysis. Our results show that in all four data sets the errors are consistent with a Gaussian distribution. 展开更多
关键词 cosmology - data analysis - statistics - probability
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Test of Normality of Waist Measurement Data of Young Male and Female Adults based on the Quantile - Quantile Plot
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作者 F. Z. Okwonu J. N. Igabari 《Journal of Statistical Science and Application》 2017年第3期118-126,共9页
This paper investigates the normality of some real data set obtained from waist measurements of a group of 49 young adults. The quantile - quantile (Q-Q) plot and the analysis of correlation coefficients for the Q-Q... This paper investigates the normality of some real data set obtained from waist measurements of a group of 49 young adults. The quantile - quantile (Q-Q) plot and the analysis of correlation coefficients for the Q-Q plot is used to determine the normality or otherwise of the data set. In this regards, the probabilities of the quantiles were computed, modified and plotted. Thereafter the correlation coefficients for the quantile - quantile plots were obtained. Results indicate that at 0.1 level of significance, the data for young adult males of the sample were not normally distributed, and had a mean value that is within the range of low risk, healthwise, whereas the distribution of the data for young female adults showed reasonable normality, but also with a mean value that is within the range of low risk in terms of health condition. 展开更多
关键词 Correlation coefficient probability plot quantile - quantile plot test of normality waist measurement young adults.
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Plasma post oxidation of nitrocarburized AISI 4140 steel
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作者 LEE Insup 《Rare Metals》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2006年第z2期267-271,共5页
Plasma nitrocarburizing and plasma oxidizing treatments were performed to improve the wear and corrosion resistance of AISI 4140 steel. Plasma nitrocarburizing was conducted for 3 h at 570 ℃ in the nitrogen, hydrogen... Plasma nitrocarburizing and plasma oxidizing treatments were performed to improve the wear and corrosion resistance of AISI 4140 steel. Plasma nitrocarburizing was conducted for 3 h at 570 ℃ in the nitrogen, hydrogen and methane atmosphere to produce the ε-Fe2-3(N,C) phase. It was found that the compound layer produced by plasma nitrocarburising was predominantly composed of ε-phase, with a small proportion of γ′-Fe4(N,C) phase. The thickness of the compound layer was about 10 μm and the diffusion layer was about 300 μm in thickness, respectively. Plasma post oxidation was performed on the nitrocarburized samples with various oxygen/hydrogen ratio at a constant temperature of 500 ℃ for 1 h. The very thin magnetite (Fe3O4) layer 1-2 μm in thickness on top of the compound layer was obtained by plasma post oxidation. It was confirmed that the corrosion characteristics of the nitrocarburized compound layer can be further improved by the application of the superficial magnetite layer. 展开更多
关键词 plasma nitrocarburizing post oxidation ε-Fe2-3(N C) γ′-Fe4(N C) Fe3O4
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Enhancement of Multicast Security with Opportunistic Relaying Technique over κ-μ Shadowed Fading Channels
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作者 Ashik Alam Md. Zahurul Islam Sarkar 《Journal of Computer and Communications》 2022年第11期121-137,共17页
The effects of scatterers, fluctuation parameter and propagation clusters significantly affect the performance of κ-μ shadowed fading channel. On the other hand, opportunistic relaying is an efficient technique to i... The effects of scatterers, fluctuation parameter and propagation clusters significantly affect the performance of κ-μ shadowed fading channel. On the other hand, opportunistic relaying is an efficient technique to improve the performance of fading channels reducing the effects of aforementioned parameters. Motivated by these issues, in this paper, a secure wireless multicasting scenario through κ-μ shadowed fading channel is considered in the presence of multiple eavesdroppers with opportunistic relaying. The main purpose of this paper is to ensure the security level in wireless multicasting compensating the loss of security due to the effects of power ratio between dominant and scattered waves, fluctuation parameter, and the number of propagation clusters, multicast users and eavesdroppers, by opportunistic relaying technique. The closed-form analytical expressions are derived for the probability of non-zero secrecy multicast capacity (PNSMC) and the secure outage probability for multicasting (SOPM) to understand the insight of the effects of above parameters. The results show that the loss of security in multicasting through κ-μ shadowed fading channel can be significantly enhanced using opportunistic relaying technique by compensating the effects of scatterers, fluctuation parameter, and the number of propagation clusters, multicast users and eavesdroppers. 展开更多
关键词 Opportunistic Relaying probability of Non-Zero Secrecy Multicast Capacity (PNSMC) Secure Wireless Multicasting Secure Outage probability for Multicasting (SOPM) κ-μ Shadowed Fading Channel
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考虑地震动空间变化的区域公路网连通可靠性研究
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作者 高颖 韩松旭 曹泽林 《防灾减灾工程学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期1051-1061,共11页
区域公路网是社会交通大动脉和地震灾害救援生命线,连通可靠性反映了地震灾害发生后公路网的通行能力,地震动受震源位置及震中距的影响而具有显著的空间变化,对公路网的震后破坏状态具有重要影响。以邯郸地区公路网为研究对象,通过设定... 区域公路网是社会交通大动脉和地震灾害救援生命线,连通可靠性反映了地震灾害发生后公路网的通行能力,地震动受震源位置及震中距的影响而具有显著的空间变化,对公路网的震后破坏状态具有重要影响。以邯郸地区公路网为研究对象,通过设定震源位置与震级,研究地震动空间变化影响下的区域公路网连通可靠性。首先,设定邯郸市1830年磁县大地震及一个虚拟地震为地震情景,分别设置震级为M6.0、6.5、7.0和7.5,基于地震动衰减关系表达地震动空间变化,得到公路单元对应的PGA。然后,结合地震易损性模型分析公路单元震后通行概率。最后,针对区域公路网空间范围大的典型特征,优化城市道路所用的最大可能状态算法,对邯郸地区公路网进行连通可靠性评估。结果表明,区域尺度下公路网络单元和节点数量多、空间展布复杂,其抗震连通可靠性与既有公路分布、区域城市位置等因素密切相关,地震动空间变化显著影响公路单元的震后破坏状态和通行概率,研究成果可为区域尺度公路网地震灾害评估及抗震韧性研究提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 区域公路网 连通可靠性 地震动空间变化 震后通行概率
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支柱绝缘子互连体系地震易损性分析 被引量:14
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作者 李圣 程永锋 +3 位作者 卢智成 朱祝兵 邱宁 陈国强 《中国电力》 CSCD 北大核心 2016年第4期61-66,共6页
为了评估支柱绝缘子互连体系的抗震可靠性,需要考虑地震动输入波形和输入方向的随机性。通过讨论有限元建模与分析方法,运用概率地震易损性分析理论,得到了典型的支柱绝缘子互连体系在不同强度和不同输入方向的地震下损伤的概率。结果表... 为了评估支柱绝缘子互连体系的抗震可靠性,需要考虑地震动输入波形和输入方向的随机性。通过讨论有限元建模与分析方法,运用概率地震易损性分析理论,得到了典型的支柱绝缘子互连体系在不同强度和不同输入方向的地震下损伤的概率。结果表明:该支柱绝缘子互连体系在八度大震下失效的概率为16.2%,对应输入方向为横向。以失效概率为评价指标的易损性分析方法 ,统一了电气设备抗震性能评价指标,为变电站的整体抗震可靠度评价打下了基础。 展开更多
关键词 变电站 绝缘子 抗震 易损性 失效概率
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建筑物震后火灾发生与蔓延危险性分析的概率模型 被引量:34
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作者 赵振东 余世舟 钟江荣 《地震工程与工程振动》 CSCD 北大核心 2003年第4期183-187,共5页
本文探讨了建筑结构物震后可能发生的次生火灾的不确定性,给出分析的基本思路,提出了与建筑结构地震破坏状态相关的次生火灾发生和蔓延的危险性概率模型。通过对相关参数的初步量化分析,结合城市防灾工作中广泛使用的地理信息系统,给出... 本文探讨了建筑结构物震后可能发生的次生火灾的不确定性,给出分析的基本思路,提出了与建筑结构地震破坏状态相关的次生火灾发生和蔓延的危险性概率模型。通过对相关参数的初步量化分析,结合城市防灾工作中广泛使用的地理信息系统,给出了用于城市建筑物震后可能发生火灾或使火灾蔓延的危险性分析和次生火灾高危险区域的确定方法。 展开更多
关键词 建筑结构 次生火灾 危险性分析 概率模型 量化分析 地理信息系统 地震
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基于元胞自动机的城市区域火蔓延概率模型探讨 被引量:25
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作者 孟晓静 杨立中 李健 《中国安全科学学报》 CAS CSCD 2008年第2期28-33,共6页
考虑建筑结构物震后可能发生的次生火灾的不确定性,给出解决问题的基本思路,构建了基于元胞自动机的城市地震次生火灾蔓延概率模型,指出元胞着火的概率与建筑物的特性和灾害条件有关,包括建筑材料、外墙是否有开口、与着火元胞的距离、... 考虑建筑结构物震后可能发生的次生火灾的不确定性,给出解决问题的基本思路,构建了基于元胞自动机的城市地震次生火灾蔓延概率模型,指出元胞着火的概率与建筑物的特性和灾害条件有关,包括建筑材料、外墙是否有开口、与着火元胞的距离、地震对建筑的破坏程度以及气象条件等因素。模型通过设置没有开口的外墙以及道路和空地来区分单体建筑和建筑之间的火蔓延。该模型量化了影响火蔓延概率的因素,能快速实现城市区域火蔓延过程的动态模拟,特别适宜用于城市宏观角度上的火蔓延模拟。模拟结果再现了火灾过程,这不仅提高了人们对城市区域火蔓延危害的认识,而且为城市规划设计和消防扑救措施提供了有益的理论依据。 展开更多
关键词 元胞自动机 火蔓延 城市区域 概率模型 地震次生火灾
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问题类型和情绪状态对贝叶斯推理的影响 被引量:3
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作者 史滋福 周禹希 刘妹 《心理科学》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2012年第4期988-992,共5页
本研究以240名大学生为被试,探讨了问题类型和情绪状态对贝叶斯推理的影响。结果表明:(1)问题类型对贝叶斯推理有影响;(2)情绪状态对贝叶斯推理有影响;(3)问题类型与情绪状态对贝叶斯推理的影响存在交互作用。具体地,在经典乳癌问题中,... 本研究以240名大学生为被试,探讨了问题类型和情绪状态对贝叶斯推理的影响。结果表明:(1)问题类型对贝叶斯推理有影响;(2)情绪状态对贝叶斯推理有影响;(3)问题类型与情绪状态对贝叶斯推理的影响存在交互作用。具体地,在经典乳癌问题中,被试在消极情绪状态下比在积极情绪状态下做出更高的概率估计,而在中彩问题中,被试在积极情绪状态下比在消极情绪状态下概率估计更高。 展开更多
关键词 情绪 贝叶斯推理 后验概率
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基于声音多特征贝叶斯网络融合的话者识别研究 被引量:14
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作者 朱坚民 张雷 +1 位作者 翟东婷 雷静桃 《仪器仪表学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2013年第9期2058-2067,共10页
针对基于语音单一特征提取方法所存在的话者识别准确率较低的问题,提出将话者语音中反映人耳听觉感知特性的MFCC特征和接近心理声学临界频带的1/3倍频程(1/3 octave)特征作为话者声音的特征参数,设计话者识别的贝叶斯网络,融合2种声音... 针对基于语音单一特征提取方法所存在的话者识别准确率较低的问题,提出将话者语音中反映人耳听觉感知特性的MFCC特征和接近心理声学临界频带的1/3倍频程(1/3 octave)特征作为话者声音的特征参数,设计话者识别的贝叶斯网络,融合2种声音特征参数,通过贝叶斯网络推理实现话者识别。贝叶斯网络通过学习过程确定已注册话者各声音特征的条件概率。进行话者识别时,贝叶斯网络利用贝叶斯定理及条件独立性假设融合待识别话者声音的MFCC特征和1/3倍频程特征,计算每个已注册话者对输入语音特征矢量的后验概率,根据后验概率的大小实现待识别话者的推断。话者识别实验结果表明:提出的基于声音多特征贝叶斯网络融合的话者识别方法可行有效,识别正确率达到100%。 展开更多
关键词 MFCC特征 1 3倍频程特征 贝叶斯网络 后验概率 话者识别 融合
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基于GIS的建筑物地震次生火灾危险性模拟 被引量:1
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作者 谢旭阳 刘铁民 +1 位作者 张兴凯 任爱珠 《中国安全科学学报》 CAS CSCD 2004年第12期14-17,共4页
地震次生火灾对人类的危害极大 ,192 3年日本关东大地震中 ,大火烧毁了 4 4 .7万栋房屋 ,烧死5 .6万余人。笔者计算了建筑物发生地震次生火灾概率的大小 ,并在此基础上对建筑物发生地震次生火灾的危险性进行了模拟。通过对基于GIS的建... 地震次生火灾对人类的危害极大 ,192 3年日本关东大地震中 ,大火烧毁了 4 4 .7万栋房屋 ,烧死5 .6万余人。笔者计算了建筑物发生地震次生火灾概率的大小 ,并在此基础上对建筑物发生地震次生火灾的危险性进行了模拟。通过对基于GIS的建筑物地震次生火灾危险性模拟 ,为预防地震次生火灾的发生提供有力的依据 ,同时为地震次生火灾发生后进行应急救灾提供了有力的支持。 展开更多
关键词 建筑物 火灾危险性 大地震 大火 房屋 基础 计算 GIS 震中 模拟
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城市危险源对地震次生火灾影响的计算机模拟 被引量:3
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作者 孟晓静 杨立中 《热科学与技术》 CAS CSCD 2009年第1期90-94,共5页
城市危险源分布范围较广,有些还以线状和网络状分布在人口、公共设施集中的区域。在地震的作用下,城市中潜在的危险源对地震次生火灾的起火和蔓延都有着重要的影响。着重研究了城市中危险源对地震次生火灾起火的影响,并建立了基于元胞... 城市危险源分布范围较广,有些还以线状和网络状分布在人口、公共设施集中的区域。在地震的作用下,城市中潜在的危险源对地震次生火灾的起火和蔓延都有着重要的影响。着重研究了城市中危险源对地震次生火灾起火的影响,并建立了基于元胞自动机的城市区域火蔓延概率模型。模拟结果再现了火蔓延的过程,不仅提高了人们对城市区域火蔓延危害的认识,而且为城市危险源纳入城市布局和城区建设规划设计提供了依据。 展开更多
关键词 危险源 地震次生火灾 火蔓延 概率模型 元胞自动机
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一种基于与非锥簇架构FPGA输入交叉互连设计优化方法 被引量:2
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作者 黄志洪 李威 +4 位作者 杨立群 江政泓 魏星 林郁 杨海钢 《电子与信息学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2016年第9期2397-2404,共8页
该文针对与非锥(And-Inverter Cone,AIC)簇架构FPGA开发中面临的簇面积过大的瓶颈问题,对其输入交叉互连设计优化进行深入研究,在评估优化流程层次,首次创新性提出装箱网表统计法对AIC簇输入和反馈资源占用情况进行分析,为设计及优化输... 该文针对与非锥(And-Inverter Cone,AIC)簇架构FPGA开发中面临的簇面积过大的瓶颈问题,对其输入交叉互连设计优化进行深入研究,在评估优化流程层次,首次创新性提出装箱网表统计法对AIC簇输入和反馈资源占用情况进行分析,为设计及优化输入交叉互连结构提供指导,以更高效获得优化参数。针对输入交叉互连模块,在结构参数设计层次,首次提出将引脚输入和输出反馈连通率分离独立设计,并通过大量的实验,获得最优连通率组合。在电路设计实现层次,有效利用AIC逻辑锥电路结构特点,首次提出双相输入交叉互连电路实现。相比于已有的AIC簇结构,通过该文提出的优化方法所得的AIC簇自身面积可减小21.21%,面积制约问题得到了明显改善。在实现MCNC和VTR应用电路集时,与Altera公司的FPGA芯片Stratix IV(LUT架构)相比,采用具有该文所设计的输入交叉互连结构的AIC架构FPGA,平均面积延时积分别减小了48.49%和26.29%;与传统AIC架构FPGA相比,平均面积延时积分别减小了28.48%和28.37%,显著提升了FPGA的整体性能。 展开更多
关键词 与非锥(AIC) AIC簇 装箱网表统计法 连通率 分类独立设计 双相输入交叉互连
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核电厂事故后人因可靠性分析与操纵员绩效改善 被引量:2
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作者 戴立操 张力 黄曙东 《人类工效学》 2007年第3期31-34,共4页
核电厂人因可靠性分析(HRA)是核电厂概率安全评价(PSA)的重要组成部分,能够较好地评价和量化核电厂主控室(MCR)操纵员的行为。通过对国内某核电厂压水堆(PWR)进行HRA分析,对事故后操纵员行为进行分类和归组并对其进行量化分析,对核电厂... 核电厂人因可靠性分析(HRA)是核电厂概率安全评价(PSA)的重要组成部分,能够较好地评价和量化核电厂主控室(MCR)操纵员的行为。通过对国内某核电厂压水堆(PWR)进行HRA分析,对事故后操纵员行为进行分类和归组并对其进行量化分析,对核电厂事件进行基本人误概率和重要度排序。基于HRA分析,从管理的角度,提出对相对应的应急规程(EOP)进行改进,对于重要度较高的操纵员行为,核电厂应加强培训,改善操纵员绩效。 展开更多
关键词 事故后人因可靠性分析 基本人误概率和重要度 操纵员 绩效
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“直觉调整差误”偏向对贝叶斯推理成绩的影响 被引量:1
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作者 史滋福 张庆林 《心理科学》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2011年第4期970-973,共4页
采用贝叶斯推理问题作为实验材料,探讨被试解决贝叶斯推理问题的启发式策略,从认知偏向的角度分析该问题的困难原因。结果发现:(1)贝叶斯推理问题解决过程中的"可得性启发"与后验概率估计过程中的"直觉调整差误"密... 采用贝叶斯推理问题作为实验材料,探讨被试解决贝叶斯推理问题的启发式策略,从认知偏向的角度分析该问题的困难原因。结果发现:(1)贝叶斯推理问题解决过程中的"可得性启发"与后验概率估计过程中的"直觉调整差误"密切相关;(2)贝叶斯推理问题解决过程中文、理科被试都同样会产生"直觉调整差误"偏向;(3)贝叶斯推理问题解决过程中的后验概率估计值和对推理问题中包括"虚报率"信息的命题的"可得性"测量所得主观概率之间存在显著的负相关。 展开更多
关键词 贝叶斯推理 认知偏向 直觉调整差误 后验概率
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