Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attent...Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attention mechanism(GAN-LSTM-Attention)to improve the accuracy of stock price prediction.Firstly,the generator of this model combines the Long and Short-Term Memory Network(LSTM),the Attention Mechanism and,the Fully-Connected Layer,focusing on generating the predicted stock price.The discriminator combines the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and the Fully-Connected Layer to discriminate between real stock prices and generated stock prices.Secondly,to evaluate the practical application ability and generalization ability of the GAN-LSTM-Attention model,four representative stocks in the United States of America(USA)stock market,namely,Standard&Poor’s 500 Index stock,Apple Incorporatedstock,AdvancedMicroDevices Incorporatedstock,and Google Incorporated stock were selected for prediction experiments,and the prediction performance was comprehensively evaluated by using the three evaluation metrics,namely,mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and coefficient of determination(R2).Finally,the specific effects of the attention mechanism,convolutional layer,and fully-connected layer on the prediction performance of the model are systematically analyzed through ablation study.The results of experiment show that the GAN-LSTM-Attention model exhibits excellent performance and robustness in stock price prediction.展开更多
Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley a...Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)to predict the flue pressure and take targeted adjustment measures.First,the sintering process data were collected and processed.A flue pressure prediction model was then constructed after comparing different feature selection methods and model algorithms using SHAP+extremely random-ized trees(ET).The prediction accuracy of the model within the error range of±0.25 kPa was 92.63%.SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability of the prediction model.The effects of various sintering operation parameters on flue pressure,the relation-ship between the numerical range of key operation parameters and flue pressure,the effect of operation parameter combinations on flue pressure,and the prediction process of the flue pressure prediction model on a single sample were analyzed.A flue pressure optimization module was also constructed and analyzed when the prediction satisfied the judgment conditions.The operating parameter combination was then pushed.The flue pressure was increased by 5.87%during the verification process,achieving a good optimization effect.展开更多
Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the p...Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.展开更多
Background: Pancreatic cancer is one of the most lethal malignancies, with postoperative recurrence severely affecting patient survival and prognosis. This study aims to develop and validate a clinical prediction mode...Background: Pancreatic cancer is one of the most lethal malignancies, with postoperative recurrence severely affecting patient survival and prognosis. This study aims to develop and validate a clinical prediction model for postoperative recurrence in pancreatic cancer patients, incorporating multiple preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors to assist clinical decision-making. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 216 patients who underwent surgical treatment for pancreatic malignancy at the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2015 and January 2023. An independent external validation cohort of 76 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University was used to validate the model. Seven independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence were identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The model’s performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and ROC curves, and its accuracy and clinical value were assessed using calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: The predictive model demonstrated good discriminatory power, with a C-index of 0.72 in the training cohort and 0.66 in the validation cohort. The ROC curves for predicting recurrence at 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively showed AUC values ranging from 0.72 to 0.83, indicating strong predictive value. Calibration curves and DCA confirmed the model’s accuracy and clinical utility. Conclusion: This study successfully developed and validated a clinical prediction model that incorporates seven independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence in pancreatic cancer. The model provides a useful tool for predicting recurrence risk, aiding in the identification of high-risk patients, and informing clinical decision-making.展开更多
Rail corrugation, as a prevalent type of rail damage in heavy railways, induces diseases in the track structure. In order to ensure the safe operation of trains, an improved whale optimization algorithm is proposed to...Rail corrugation, as a prevalent type of rail damage in heavy railways, induces diseases in the track structure. In order to ensure the safe operation of trains, an improved whale optimization algorithm is proposed to optimize the rail corrugation evolution trend prediction model of the least squares support vector machine (IPCA-ELWOA-LSSVM). The elite reverse learning combined with the Lévy flight strategy is introduced to improve the whale optimization algorithm. The improved WOA (ELWOA) algorithm is used to continuously optimize the kernel parameter σ and the normalization parameter γ in the LSSVM model. Finally, the improved prediction model is validated using data from a domestic heavy-duty railway experimental line database and compared with the prediction model before optimization and the other commonly used models. The experimental results show that the ELWOA-LSSVM prediction model has the highest accuracy, which proves that the proposed method has high accuracy in predicting the rail corrugation evolution trend.展开更多
This work addresses the critical challenge of ensuring reliable communication in vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) and drone networks (FANETs) under dynamic and high-mobility conditions. Current methods often fail to...This work addresses the critical challenge of ensuring reliable communication in vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) and drone networks (FANETs) under dynamic and high-mobility conditions. Current methods often fail to adequately predict rapid channel variations, leading to increased packet loss and degraded Quality of Service (QoS). To bridge this gap, we propose a novel cross-layer framework that integrates physical channel prediction into the Medium Access Control (MAC) layer to optimize network performance. Our framework employs an ARIMA (1, 0, 1) model for real-time channel prediction and dynamically adjusts MAC layer parameters to enhance throughput and reliability. Simulations demonstrate a 25% improvement in useful throughput and a 30% reduction in packet loss rates compared to baseline methods. These improvements enable practical applications in intelligent transportation systems and the efficient management of autonomous drones. Key contributions include: 1) Development of a cross-layer framework that integrates channel prediction and MAC optimization. 2) Demonstration of the framework’s effectiveness through Monte Carlo simulations in high-mobility scenarios. 3) Quantitative validation of enhanced throughput and reliability, highlighting the system’s potential for real-world deployment.展开更多
Deep learning plays a vital role in real-life applications, for example object identification, human face recognition, speech recognition, biometrics identification, and short and long-term forecasting of data. The ma...Deep learning plays a vital role in real-life applications, for example object identification, human face recognition, speech recognition, biometrics identification, and short and long-term forecasting of data. The main objective of our work is to predict the market performance of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) on day closing price using different Deep Learning techniques. In this study, we have used the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) network to forecast the data of DSE for the convenience of shareholders. We have enforced LSTM networks to train data as well as forecast the future time series that has differentiated with test data. We have computed the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value to scrutinize the error between the forecasted value and test data that diminished the error by updating the LSTM networks. As a consequence of the renovation of the network, the LSTM network provides tremendous performance which outperformed the existing works to predict stock market prices.展开更多
The rapid prediction of aerodynamic performance is critical in the conceptual and preliminary design of hypersonic vehicles. This study focused on axisymmetric body configurations commonly used in such vehicles and pr...The rapid prediction of aerodynamic performance is critical in the conceptual and preliminary design of hypersonic vehicles. This study focused on axisymmetric body configurations commonly used in such vehicles and proposed a multi-fidelity neural network (MFNN) framework to fuse aerodynamic data of varying quality. A data-driven prediction model was constructed using a pointwise modeling method based on generating lines to input geometric features into the network. The MFNN framework combined low-fidelity and high-fidelity networks, trained on aerodynamic performance data from engineering rapid computation methods and CFD, respectively, using spherically blunted cones as examples. The results showed that the MFNN effectively integrated multi-fidelity data, achieving prediction accuracy close to CFD results in most regions, with errors under 5% in key stagnation areas. The model demonstrated strong generalization capabilities for varying cone dimensions and flight conditions. Furthermore, it significantly reduced dependence on high-fidelity data, enabling efficient aerodynamic performance predictions with limited datasets. This study provides a novel methodology for rapid aerodynamic performance prediction, offering both accuracy and efficiency, and contributes to the design of hypersonic vehicles.展开更多
The incidence of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) has increased over the past decade,with more than half occurring in intensive care units (ICUs).^([1])ICU cardiac arrest (ICU-CA)presents unique challenges,with worse...The incidence of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) has increased over the past decade,with more than half occurring in intensive care units (ICUs).^([1])ICU cardiac arrest (ICU-CA)presents unique challenges,with worse outcomes than those in monitored wards,highlighting the need for early detection and intervention.^([2])Up to 80%of patients exhibit signs of deterioration hours before IHCA.^([3])Although early warning scores based on vital signs are useful,their eff ectiveness in ICUs is limited due to abnormal physiological parameters.^([4])Laboratory markers,such as sodium,potassium,and lactate,are predictive of poor outcomes,^([5])but static measurements may not capture the patient’s trajectory.Trends in laboratory indicators,such as variability and extremes,may offer better predictive value.^([6])This study aimed to evaluate ICU-CA predictive factors,with a focus on vital signs and trends of laboratory indicators.展开更多
The acquisition,analysis,and prediction of the radar cross section(RCS)of a target have extremely important strategic significance in the military.However,the RCS values at all azimuths are hardly accessible for non-c...The acquisition,analysis,and prediction of the radar cross section(RCS)of a target have extremely important strategic significance in the military.However,the RCS values at all azimuths are hardly accessible for non-cooperative targets,due to the limitations of radar observation azimuth and detection resources.Despite their efforts to predict the azimuth-dimensional RCS value,traditional methods based on statistical theory fails to achieve the desired results because of the azimuth sensitivity of the target RCS.To address this problem,an improved neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting(N-BEATS)network considering the physical model prior is proposed to predict the azimuth-dimensional RCS value accurately.Concretely,physical model-based constraints are imposed on the network by constructing a scattering-center module based on the target scattering-center model.Besides,a superimposed seasonality module is involved to better capture high-frequency information,and augmenting the training set provides complementary information for learning predictions.Extensive simulations and experimental results are provided to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in China plays a crucial role in decision-making,environmental protection,and socio-economic development,while it currently has a low prediction skill.We developed a deep learnin...Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in China plays a crucial role in decision-making,environmental protection,and socio-economic development,while it currently has a low prediction skill.We developed a deep learning-based seasonal prediction bias correction method for summer rainfall in China.Based on prediction fields from the flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model finite volume version 2(FGOALS-f2),we optimized the loss function of U-Net,trained with different hyperparameters,and selected the optimum model.U-Net model can extract multi-scale feature information and preserve spatial information,making it suitable for processing meteorological data.With this endto-end model,the precipitation distribution can be obtained directly without using the traditional method of data dimensionality reduction(e.g.,Empirical Orthogonal Function),which could maximize the retention of spatio-temporal information of the input data.Optimization of the loss function enhances the prediction results and mitigates model overfitting.The independent prediction shows a significant skill improvement measured by the anomalous correlation coefficient score.The skill has an average value of 0.679 in China(0°–63°N,73°–133°E)and 0.691 in the region of the Chinese mainland,which significantly improves the dynamical prediction skill by 1357%and 4836%.This study suggests that the deep learning(U-Net)-based seasonal prediction bias correction method is a promising approach for improving rainfall prediction of the dynamical model.展开更多
Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditiona...Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditional CSI feedback approaches face challenges such as performance degradation due to feedback delay and channel aging caused by user mobility.To address these issues,we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive network(STPNet)that jointly integrates CSI feedback and prediction modules.STPNet employs stacked Inception modules to learn the spatial correlation and temporal evolution of CSI,which captures both the local and the global spatiotemporal features.In addition,the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)adaptive module is designed to adapt flexibly to diverse feedback channel conditions.Simulation results demonstrate that STPNet outperforms existing channel prediction methods under various channel conditions.展开更多
BACKGROUND To investigate the preoperative factors influencing textbook outcomes(TO)in Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC)patients and evaluate the feasibility of an interpretable machine learning model for preoperat...BACKGROUND To investigate the preoperative factors influencing textbook outcomes(TO)in Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC)patients and evaluate the feasibility of an interpretable machine learning model for preoperative prediction of TO,we developed a machine learning model for preoperative prediction of TO and used the SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)technique to illustrate the prediction process.AIM To analyze the factors influencing textbook outcomes before surgery and to establish interpretable machine learning models for preoperative prediction.METHODS A total of 376 patients diagnosed with ICC were retrospectively collected from four major medical institutions in China,covering the period from 2011 to 2017.Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify preoperative variables associated with achieving TO.Based on these variables,an EXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)machine learning prediction model was constructed using the XGBoost package.The SHAP(package:Shapviz)algorithm was employed to visualize each variable's contribution to the model's predictions.Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare the prognostic differences between the TO-achieving and non-TO-achieving groups.RESULTS Among 376 patients,287 were included in the training group and 89 in the validation group.Logistic regression identified the following preoperative variables influencing TO:Child-Pugh classification,Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group(ECOG)score,hepatitis B,and tumor size.The XGBoost prediction model demonstrated high accuracy in internal validation(AUC=0.8825)and external validation(AUC=0.8346).Survival analysis revealed that the disease-free survival rates for patients achieving TO at 1,2,and 3 years were 64.2%,56.8%,and 43.4%,respectively.CONCLUSION Child-Pugh classification,ECOG score,hepatitis B,and tumor size are preoperative predictors of TO.In both the training group and the validation group,the machine learning model had certain effectiveness in predicting TO before surgery.The SHAP algorithm provided intuitive visualization of the machine learning prediction process,enhancing its interpretability.展开更多
Sub-seasonal prediction of regional compound heatwaves and their predictability sources remain unclear.In this study,the underlying mechanisms for the long-lasting compound heatwave over Southern China during July 1–...Sub-seasonal prediction of regional compound heatwaves and their predictability sources remain unclear.In this study,the underlying mechanisms for the long-lasting compound heatwave over Southern China during July 1–18,2010,and the major sources of its sub-seasonal prediction skill are identified.The results show that both the development and decay of this compound heatwave are mainly dominated by atmospheric processes(i.e.,adiabatic heating associated with anticyclonic circulation),whereas land-atmosphere coupling processes play an important role in sustaining the heatwave.A further analysis indicates that by inducing anomalous anticyclonic circulations over Southern China,the tropical intraseasonal oscillations with periods of 30–60 days and 10–30 days facilitate the occurrence and maintenance of the heatwave during its entire and second half periods,respectively.The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 shows a low skill in predicting the 2010 compound heatwave over Southern China when the lead time is longer than 2 pentads,which is largely attributed to the model’s bias in representing the intensity and phase of intra-seasonal oscillations.展开更多
BACKGROUND Preoperative risk assessments are vital for identifying patients at high risk of postoperative mortality.However,traditional scoring systems can be time consuming.We hypothesized that the use of machine lea...BACKGROUND Preoperative risk assessments are vital for identifying patients at high risk of postoperative mortality.However,traditional scoring systems can be time consuming.We hypothesized that the use of machine learning models would enable rapid and accurate risk assessments to be performed.AIM To assess the potential of machine learning algorithms to develop predictive models of mortality risk after abdominal surgery.METHODS This retrospective study included 230 individuals who underwent abdominal surgery at the Seventh People’s Hospital of Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine between January 2023 and December 2023.Demographic and surgery-related data were collected and used to develop nomogram,decision-tree,random-forest,gradient-boosting,support vector machine,and naïve Bayesian models to predict 30-day mortality risk after abdominal surgery.Models were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves and compared using the DeLong test.RESULTS Of the 230 included patients,52 died and 178 survived.Models were developed using the training cohort(n=161)and assessed using the validation cohort(n=68).The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the nomogram,decision-tree,random-forest,gradient-boosting tree,support vector machine,and naïve Bayesian models were 0.908[95%confidence interval(CI):0.824-0.992],0.874(95%CI:0.785-0.963),0.928(95%CI:0.869-0.987),0.907(95%CI:0.837-0.976),0.983(95%CI:0.959-1.000),and 0.807(95%CI:0.702-0.911),respectively.CONCLUSION Nomogram,random-forest,gradient-boosting tree,and support vector machine models all demonstrate strong performances for the prediction of postoperative mortality and can be selected based on the clinical circumstances.展开更多
The Tarim Basin has revealed numerous tight sandstone oil and gas reservoirs.The tidal fl at zone in the Shunbei area is currently in the detailed exploration stage,requiring a comprehensive description of the sand bo...The Tarim Basin has revealed numerous tight sandstone oil and gas reservoirs.The tidal fl at zone in the Shunbei area is currently in the detailed exploration stage,requiring a comprehensive description of the sand body distribution characteristics for rational exploration well deployment.However,using a single method for sand body prediction has yielded poor results.Seismic facies analysis can eff ectively predict the macro-development characteristics of sedimentary sand bodies but lacks the resolution to capture fi ne details.In contrast,single-well sedimentary facies analysis can describe detailed sand body development but struggles to reveal broader trends.Therefore,this study proposes a method that combines seismic facies analysis with single-well sedimentary microfacies analysis,using the lower section of the Kepingtage Formation in the Shunbei area as a case study.First,seismic facies were obtained through unsupervised vector quantization to control the macro-distribution characteristics of sand bodies,while principal component analysis(PCA)was applied to improve the depiction of fi ne sand body details from seismic attributes.Based on 3D seismic data,well-logging data,and geological interpretation results,a detailed structural interpretation was performed to establish a high-precision stratigraphic framework,thereby enhancing the accuracy of sand body prediction.Seismic facies analysis was then conducted to obtain the macro-distribution characteristics of the sand bodies.Subsequently,core data and logging curves from individual wells were used to clarify the vertical development characteristics of tidal channels and sandbars.Next,PCA was employed to select the seismic attributes most sensitive to sand bodies in diff erent sedimentary facies.Results indicate that RMS amplitude in the subtidal zone and instantaneous phase in the intertidal zone are the most sensitive to sand bodies.A comparative analysis of individual seismic attributes for sand body characterization revealed that facies-based delineation improved the accuracy of sand body identifi cation,eff ectively capturing their contours and shapes.This method,which integrates seismic facies,single-well sedimentary microfacies,and machine learning techniques,enhances the precision of sand body characterization and off ers a novel approach to sand body prediction.展开更多
Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Reg...Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides.展开更多
BACKGROUND Heart rate variability(HRV)represents efferent vagus nerve activity,which is suggested to be related to fundamental mechanisms of tumorigenesis and to be a predictor of prognosis in various cancers.Therefor...BACKGROUND Heart rate variability(HRV)represents efferent vagus nerve activity,which is suggested to be related to fundamental mechanisms of tumorigenesis and to be a predictor of prognosis in various cancers.Therefore,this study hypothesized that HRV monitoring could predict perioperative complication(PC)in colorectal cancer(CRC)patients.AIM To investigate the prognostic value of HRV in hospitalized CRC patients.METHODS The observational studies included 87 patients who underwent CRC surgical procedures under enhanced recovery after surgery programs in a first-class hospital.The HRV parameters were compared between the PC group and the non PC(NPC)group from preoperative day 1 to postoperative day(Pod)3.In addition,inflammatory biomarkers and nutritional indicators were also analyzed.RESULTS The complication rate was 14.9%.HRV was markedly abnormal after surgery,especially in the PC group.The frequency-domain parameters(including pNN50)and time-domain parameters[including high-frequency(HF)]of HRV were significantly different between the two groups postoperatively.The pNN50 was significantly greater at Pod1 in the PC group than that in the NPC group and returned to baseline at Pod2,suggesting that patients with complications exhibited autonomic nerve dysfunction in the early postoperative period.In the PC group,HFs were also enhanced from Pod1 and were significantly higher than in the NPC group;inflammatory biomarkers were significantly elevated at Pod2 and Pod3;the levels of nutritional indicators were significantly lower at Pod1 and Pod2;and the white blood cell count was slightly elevated at Pod3.CONCLUSION HRV is independently associated with postoperative complications in patients with CRC.Abnormal HRV could predicted an increased risk of postoperative complications in CRC patients.Continuous HRV could be used to monitor complications in patients with CRC during the perioperative period.展开更多
Seasonal precipitation has always been a key focus of climate prediction.As a dynamic-statistical combined method,the existing observational constraint correction establishes a regression relationship between the nume...Seasonal precipitation has always been a key focus of climate prediction.As a dynamic-statistical combined method,the existing observational constraint correction establishes a regression relationship between the numerical model outputs and historical observations,which can partly predict seasonal precipitation.However,solving a nonlinear problem through linear regression is significantly biased.This study implements a nonlinear optimization of an existing observational constrained correction model using a Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)machine learning algorithm based on output from the Beijing National Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)and station observations to improve the prediction of summer precipitation in China.The model was trained using a rolling approach,and LightGBM outperformed Linear Regression(LR),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Categorical Boosting(CatBoost).Using parameter tuning to optimize the machine learning model and predict future summer precipitation using eight different predictors in BCC-CSM,the mean Anomaly Correlation Coefficient(ACC)score in the 2019–22 summer precipitation predictions was 0.17,and the mean Prediction Score(PS)reached 74.The PS score was improved by 7.87%and 6.63%compared with the BCC-CSM and the linear observational constraint approach,respectively.The observational constraint correction prediction strategy with LightGBM significantly and stably improved the prediction of summer precipitation in China compared to the previous linear observational constraint solution,providing a reference for flood control and drought relief during the flood season(summer)in China.展开更多
Clustered heavy precipitation(CHP)events can severely impact human society,infrastructure,and natural ecosystems.Consequently,short-term climate prediction of CHP events is vital for the prevention and mitigation of a...Clustered heavy precipitation(CHP)events can severely impact human society,infrastructure,and natural ecosystems.Consequently,short-term climate prediction of CHP events is vital for the prevention and mitigation of associated hazards.Employing year-to-year increment(DY)and multiple linear regression approaches,this study developed a seasonal prediction model for pre-summer(i.e.,May and June)CHP frequency in South China(SC)during 1981–2022.Three robust predictor factors were identified:March sea surface temperature in Southwestern Atlantic,early-winter snow depth in East Europe,and winter soil moisture in Central Asia.Three predictors exert substantial impacts on presummer precipitation in SC via modulation of an anomalous anticyclone(cyclone)over the(subtropical)western North Pacific.In leave-one-out cross-validation test during 1981–2022,the prediction model exhibited reasonable performance in predicting the interannual and interdecadal variations and trends of CHP days.The temporal correlation coefficient(TCC)was 0.66 between the observations and predictions.In the independent hindcast for 2013–2022,the TCC was as high as 0.85.Moreover,coherent covariations were observed between the frequency and the amounts of CHP,with a TCC of 0.99 for 1981–2022.Those three predictors show good performance in forecasting CHP amounts over SC,with a TCC of 0.68 between the predictions and observations in the cross-validation test during 1981–2022 and of 0.86 in the independent hindcasts during 2013–2022.Notably,the predictors also showed good predictive skill for years with high CHP occurrence(e.g.,1998 and 2019).The predicted high-incidence areas of heavy precipitation days were highly consistent with observations,with a pattern correlation coefficient of 0.44(0.55)for 1998(2019).This study provides valuable insights to improve seasonal prediction of pre-summer CHP frequency in SC.展开更多
基金funded by the project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Provincial(Grant Number LH2023F033)the Science and Technology Innovation Talent Project of Harbin(Grant Number 2022CXRCCG006).
文摘Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attention mechanism(GAN-LSTM-Attention)to improve the accuracy of stock price prediction.Firstly,the generator of this model combines the Long and Short-Term Memory Network(LSTM),the Attention Mechanism and,the Fully-Connected Layer,focusing on generating the predicted stock price.The discriminator combines the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and the Fully-Connected Layer to discriminate between real stock prices and generated stock prices.Secondly,to evaluate the practical application ability and generalization ability of the GAN-LSTM-Attention model,four representative stocks in the United States of America(USA)stock market,namely,Standard&Poor’s 500 Index stock,Apple Incorporatedstock,AdvancedMicroDevices Incorporatedstock,and Google Incorporated stock were selected for prediction experiments,and the prediction performance was comprehensively evaluated by using the three evaluation metrics,namely,mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and coefficient of determination(R2).Finally,the specific effects of the attention mechanism,convolutional layer,and fully-connected layer on the prediction performance of the model are systematically analyzed through ablation study.The results of experiment show that the GAN-LSTM-Attention model exhibits excellent performance and robustness in stock price prediction.
基金supported by the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274326)the China Baowu Low Carbon Metallurgy Innovation Foundation(No.BWLCF202109)the Seventh Batch of Ten Thousand Talents Plan of China(No.ZX20220553).
文摘Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)to predict the flue pressure and take targeted adjustment measures.First,the sintering process data were collected and processed.A flue pressure prediction model was then constructed after comparing different feature selection methods and model algorithms using SHAP+extremely random-ized trees(ET).The prediction accuracy of the model within the error range of±0.25 kPa was 92.63%.SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability of the prediction model.The effects of various sintering operation parameters on flue pressure,the relation-ship between the numerical range of key operation parameters and flue pressure,the effect of operation parameter combinations on flue pressure,and the prediction process of the flue pressure prediction model on a single sample were analyzed.A flue pressure optimization module was also constructed and analyzed when the prediction satisfied the judgment conditions.The operating parameter combination was then pushed.The flue pressure was increased by 5.87%during the verification process,achieving a good optimization effect.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51767017)the Basic Research Innovation Group Project of Gansu Province(18JR3RA133)the Industrial Support and Guidance Project of Universities in Gansu Province(2022CYZC-22).
文摘Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.
文摘Background: Pancreatic cancer is one of the most lethal malignancies, with postoperative recurrence severely affecting patient survival and prognosis. This study aims to develop and validate a clinical prediction model for postoperative recurrence in pancreatic cancer patients, incorporating multiple preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors to assist clinical decision-making. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 216 patients who underwent surgical treatment for pancreatic malignancy at the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2015 and January 2023. An independent external validation cohort of 76 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University was used to validate the model. Seven independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence were identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The model’s performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and ROC curves, and its accuracy and clinical value were assessed using calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: The predictive model demonstrated good discriminatory power, with a C-index of 0.72 in the training cohort and 0.66 in the validation cohort. The ROC curves for predicting recurrence at 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively showed AUC values ranging from 0.72 to 0.83, indicating strong predictive value. Calibration curves and DCA confirmed the model’s accuracy and clinical utility. Conclusion: This study successfully developed and validated a clinical prediction model that incorporates seven independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence in pancreatic cancer. The model provides a useful tool for predicting recurrence risk, aiding in the identification of high-risk patients, and informing clinical decision-making.
文摘Rail corrugation, as a prevalent type of rail damage in heavy railways, induces diseases in the track structure. In order to ensure the safe operation of trains, an improved whale optimization algorithm is proposed to optimize the rail corrugation evolution trend prediction model of the least squares support vector machine (IPCA-ELWOA-LSSVM). The elite reverse learning combined with the Lévy flight strategy is introduced to improve the whale optimization algorithm. The improved WOA (ELWOA) algorithm is used to continuously optimize the kernel parameter σ and the normalization parameter γ in the LSSVM model. Finally, the improved prediction model is validated using data from a domestic heavy-duty railway experimental line database and compared with the prediction model before optimization and the other commonly used models. The experimental results show that the ELWOA-LSSVM prediction model has the highest accuracy, which proves that the proposed method has high accuracy in predicting the rail corrugation evolution trend.
文摘This work addresses the critical challenge of ensuring reliable communication in vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) and drone networks (FANETs) under dynamic and high-mobility conditions. Current methods often fail to adequately predict rapid channel variations, leading to increased packet loss and degraded Quality of Service (QoS). To bridge this gap, we propose a novel cross-layer framework that integrates physical channel prediction into the Medium Access Control (MAC) layer to optimize network performance. Our framework employs an ARIMA (1, 0, 1) model for real-time channel prediction and dynamically adjusts MAC layer parameters to enhance throughput and reliability. Simulations demonstrate a 25% improvement in useful throughput and a 30% reduction in packet loss rates compared to baseline methods. These improvements enable practical applications in intelligent transportation systems and the efficient management of autonomous drones. Key contributions include: 1) Development of a cross-layer framework that integrates channel prediction and MAC optimization. 2) Demonstration of the framework’s effectiveness through Monte Carlo simulations in high-mobility scenarios. 3) Quantitative validation of enhanced throughput and reliability, highlighting the system’s potential for real-world deployment.
文摘Deep learning plays a vital role in real-life applications, for example object identification, human face recognition, speech recognition, biometrics identification, and short and long-term forecasting of data. The main objective of our work is to predict the market performance of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) on day closing price using different Deep Learning techniques. In this study, we have used the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) network to forecast the data of DSE for the convenience of shareholders. We have enforced LSTM networks to train data as well as forecast the future time series that has differentiated with test data. We have computed the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value to scrutinize the error between the forecasted value and test data that diminished the error by updating the LSTM networks. As a consequence of the renovation of the network, the LSTM network provides tremendous performance which outperformed the existing works to predict stock market prices.
文摘The rapid prediction of aerodynamic performance is critical in the conceptual and preliminary design of hypersonic vehicles. This study focused on axisymmetric body configurations commonly used in such vehicles and proposed a multi-fidelity neural network (MFNN) framework to fuse aerodynamic data of varying quality. A data-driven prediction model was constructed using a pointwise modeling method based on generating lines to input geometric features into the network. The MFNN framework combined low-fidelity and high-fidelity networks, trained on aerodynamic performance data from engineering rapid computation methods and CFD, respectively, using spherically blunted cones as examples. The results showed that the MFNN effectively integrated multi-fidelity data, achieving prediction accuracy close to CFD results in most regions, with errors under 5% in key stagnation areas. The model demonstrated strong generalization capabilities for varying cone dimensions and flight conditions. Furthermore, it significantly reduced dependence on high-fidelity data, enabling efficient aerodynamic performance predictions with limited datasets. This study provides a novel methodology for rapid aerodynamic performance prediction, offering both accuracy and efficiency, and contributes to the design of hypersonic vehicles.
基金supported by grants from the Key R&D Program of Shandong Province (2021ZLGX02)the National Science Foundation of China (81901934, 82325031)+1 种基金the National Key R&D Program of China (2020YFC1512700, 2020YFC1512705, 2020YFC1512703)the Clinical Research Center of Shandong University (2020SDUCRCC025)。
文摘The incidence of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) has increased over the past decade,with more than half occurring in intensive care units (ICUs).^([1])ICU cardiac arrest (ICU-CA)presents unique challenges,with worse outcomes than those in monitored wards,highlighting the need for early detection and intervention.^([2])Up to 80%of patients exhibit signs of deterioration hours before IHCA.^([3])Although early warning scores based on vital signs are useful,their eff ectiveness in ICUs is limited due to abnormal physiological parameters.^([4])Laboratory markers,such as sodium,potassium,and lactate,are predictive of poor outcomes,^([5])but static measurements may not capture the patient’s trajectory.Trends in laboratory indicators,such as variability and extremes,may offer better predictive value.^([6])This study aimed to evaluate ICU-CA predictive factors,with a focus on vital signs and trends of laboratory indicators.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(61921001,62201588,62022091)。
文摘The acquisition,analysis,and prediction of the radar cross section(RCS)of a target have extremely important strategic significance in the military.However,the RCS values at all azimuths are hardly accessible for non-cooperative targets,due to the limitations of radar observation azimuth and detection resources.Despite their efforts to predict the azimuth-dimensional RCS value,traditional methods based on statistical theory fails to achieve the desired results because of the azimuth sensitivity of the target RCS.To address this problem,an improved neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting(N-BEATS)network considering the physical model prior is proposed to predict the azimuth-dimensional RCS value accurately.Concretely,physical model-based constraints are imposed on the network by constructing a scattering-center module based on the target scattering-center model.Besides,a superimposed seasonality module is involved to better capture high-frequency information,and augmenting the training set provides complementary information for learning predictions.Extensive simulations and experimental results are provided to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(GZC20232598)+1 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2024M753168)National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab)。
文摘Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in China plays a crucial role in decision-making,environmental protection,and socio-economic development,while it currently has a low prediction skill.We developed a deep learning-based seasonal prediction bias correction method for summer rainfall in China.Based on prediction fields from the flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model finite volume version 2(FGOALS-f2),we optimized the loss function of U-Net,trained with different hyperparameters,and selected the optimum model.U-Net model can extract multi-scale feature information and preserve spatial information,making it suitable for processing meteorological data.With this endto-end model,the precipitation distribution can be obtained directly without using the traditional method of data dimensionality reduction(e.g.,Empirical Orthogonal Function),which could maximize the retention of spatio-temporal information of the input data.Optimization of the loss function enhances the prediction results and mitigates model overfitting.The independent prediction shows a significant skill improvement measured by the anomalous correlation coefficient score.The skill has an average value of 0.679 in China(0°–63°N,73°–133°E)and 0.691 in the region of the Chinese mainland,which significantly improves the dynamical prediction skill by 1357%and 4836%.This study suggests that the deep learning(U-Net)-based seasonal prediction bias correction method is a promising approach for improving rainfall prediction of the dynamical model.
基金supported in part by the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.U2468201 and 62221001ZTE Industry-University-Institute Cooperation Funds under Grant No.IA20240420002。
文摘Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditional CSI feedback approaches face challenges such as performance degradation due to feedback delay and channel aging caused by user mobility.To address these issues,we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive network(STPNet)that jointly integrates CSI feedback and prediction modules.STPNet employs stacked Inception modules to learn the spatial correlation and temporal evolution of CSI,which captures both the local and the global spatiotemporal features.In addition,the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)adaptive module is designed to adapt flexibly to diverse feedback channel conditions.Simulation results demonstrate that STPNet outperforms existing channel prediction methods under various channel conditions.
基金Supported by National Key Research and Development Program,No.2022YFC2407304Major Research Project for Middle-Aged and Young Scientists of Fujian Provincial Health Commission,No.2021ZQNZD013+2 种基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.62275050Fujian Province Science and Technology Innovation Joint Fund Project,No.2019Y9108Major Science and Technology Projects of Fujian Province,No.2021YZ036017.
文摘BACKGROUND To investigate the preoperative factors influencing textbook outcomes(TO)in Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC)patients and evaluate the feasibility of an interpretable machine learning model for preoperative prediction of TO,we developed a machine learning model for preoperative prediction of TO and used the SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)technique to illustrate the prediction process.AIM To analyze the factors influencing textbook outcomes before surgery and to establish interpretable machine learning models for preoperative prediction.METHODS A total of 376 patients diagnosed with ICC were retrospectively collected from four major medical institutions in China,covering the period from 2011 to 2017.Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify preoperative variables associated with achieving TO.Based on these variables,an EXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)machine learning prediction model was constructed using the XGBoost package.The SHAP(package:Shapviz)algorithm was employed to visualize each variable's contribution to the model's predictions.Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare the prognostic differences between the TO-achieving and non-TO-achieving groups.RESULTS Among 376 patients,287 were included in the training group and 89 in the validation group.Logistic regression identified the following preoperative variables influencing TO:Child-Pugh classification,Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group(ECOG)score,hepatitis B,and tumor size.The XGBoost prediction model demonstrated high accuracy in internal validation(AUC=0.8825)and external validation(AUC=0.8346).Survival analysis revealed that the disease-free survival rates for patients achieving TO at 1,2,and 3 years were 64.2%,56.8%,and 43.4%,respectively.CONCLUSION Child-Pugh classification,ECOG score,hepatitis B,and tumor size are preoperative predictors of TO.In both the training group and the validation group,the machine learning model had certain effectiveness in predicting TO before surgery.The SHAP algorithm provided intuitive visualization of the machine learning prediction process,enhancing its interpretability.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42105015)+3 种基金Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2022A1515010659)Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(SML2023SP209)Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(311021001)Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies(2020B1212060025)。
文摘Sub-seasonal prediction of regional compound heatwaves and their predictability sources remain unclear.In this study,the underlying mechanisms for the long-lasting compound heatwave over Southern China during July 1–18,2010,and the major sources of its sub-seasonal prediction skill are identified.The results show that both the development and decay of this compound heatwave are mainly dominated by atmospheric processes(i.e.,adiabatic heating associated with anticyclonic circulation),whereas land-atmosphere coupling processes play an important role in sustaining the heatwave.A further analysis indicates that by inducing anomalous anticyclonic circulations over Southern China,the tropical intraseasonal oscillations with periods of 30–60 days and 10–30 days facilitate the occurrence and maintenance of the heatwave during its entire and second half periods,respectively.The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 shows a low skill in predicting the 2010 compound heatwave over Southern China when the lead time is longer than 2 pentads,which is largely attributed to the model’s bias in representing the intensity and phase of intra-seasonal oscillations.
基金Supported by the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission Project,No.20214Y0284.
文摘BACKGROUND Preoperative risk assessments are vital for identifying patients at high risk of postoperative mortality.However,traditional scoring systems can be time consuming.We hypothesized that the use of machine learning models would enable rapid and accurate risk assessments to be performed.AIM To assess the potential of machine learning algorithms to develop predictive models of mortality risk after abdominal surgery.METHODS This retrospective study included 230 individuals who underwent abdominal surgery at the Seventh People’s Hospital of Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine between January 2023 and December 2023.Demographic and surgery-related data were collected and used to develop nomogram,decision-tree,random-forest,gradient-boosting,support vector machine,and naïve Bayesian models to predict 30-day mortality risk after abdominal surgery.Models were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves and compared using the DeLong test.RESULTS Of the 230 included patients,52 died and 178 survived.Models were developed using the training cohort(n=161)and assessed using the validation cohort(n=68).The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the nomogram,decision-tree,random-forest,gradient-boosting tree,support vector machine,and naïve Bayesian models were 0.908[95%confidence interval(CI):0.824-0.992],0.874(95%CI:0.785-0.963),0.928(95%CI:0.869-0.987),0.907(95%CI:0.837-0.976),0.983(95%CI:0.959-1.000),and 0.807(95%CI:0.702-0.911),respectively.CONCLUSION Nomogram,random-forest,gradient-boosting tree,and support vector machine models all demonstrate strong performances for the prediction of postoperative mortality and can be selected based on the clinical circumstances.
基金Collaborative Project Grant from the Exploration and Development Research Institute of SINOPEC Northwest Oilfi eld Company(Grant No.KY2021-S-104).
文摘The Tarim Basin has revealed numerous tight sandstone oil and gas reservoirs.The tidal fl at zone in the Shunbei area is currently in the detailed exploration stage,requiring a comprehensive description of the sand body distribution characteristics for rational exploration well deployment.However,using a single method for sand body prediction has yielded poor results.Seismic facies analysis can eff ectively predict the macro-development characteristics of sedimentary sand bodies but lacks the resolution to capture fi ne details.In contrast,single-well sedimentary facies analysis can describe detailed sand body development but struggles to reveal broader trends.Therefore,this study proposes a method that combines seismic facies analysis with single-well sedimentary microfacies analysis,using the lower section of the Kepingtage Formation in the Shunbei area as a case study.First,seismic facies were obtained through unsupervised vector quantization to control the macro-distribution characteristics of sand bodies,while principal component analysis(PCA)was applied to improve the depiction of fi ne sand body details from seismic attributes.Based on 3D seismic data,well-logging data,and geological interpretation results,a detailed structural interpretation was performed to establish a high-precision stratigraphic framework,thereby enhancing the accuracy of sand body prediction.Seismic facies analysis was then conducted to obtain the macro-distribution characteristics of the sand bodies.Subsequently,core data and logging curves from individual wells were used to clarify the vertical development characteristics of tidal channels and sandbars.Next,PCA was employed to select the seismic attributes most sensitive to sand bodies in diff erent sedimentary facies.Results indicate that RMS amplitude in the subtidal zone and instantaneous phase in the intertidal zone are the most sensitive to sand bodies.A comparative analysis of individual seismic attributes for sand body characterization revealed that facies-based delineation improved the accuracy of sand body identifi cation,eff ectively capturing their contours and shapes.This method,which integrates seismic facies,single-well sedimentary microfacies,and machine learning techniques,enhances the precision of sand body characterization and off ers a novel approach to sand body prediction.
基金the funding support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52308340)Chongqing Talent Innovation and Entrepreneurship Demonstration Team Project(Grant No.cstc2024ycjh-bgzxm0012)the Science and Technology Projects supported by China Coal Technology and Engineering Chongqing Design and Research Institute(Group)Co.,Ltd..(Grant No.H20230317)。
文摘Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides.
基金Supported by The Natural Science Foundation of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine,No.XZR2021019The Outstanding Young Doctor Program of Jiangsu Province of Chinese Medicine,No.2023QB0140+1 种基金Project of National Clinical Research Base of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Jiangsu Province,No.JD2022SZ18The Natural Science Foundation of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine,No.KYCX21_1710.
文摘BACKGROUND Heart rate variability(HRV)represents efferent vagus nerve activity,which is suggested to be related to fundamental mechanisms of tumorigenesis and to be a predictor of prognosis in various cancers.Therefore,this study hypothesized that HRV monitoring could predict perioperative complication(PC)in colorectal cancer(CRC)patients.AIM To investigate the prognostic value of HRV in hospitalized CRC patients.METHODS The observational studies included 87 patients who underwent CRC surgical procedures under enhanced recovery after surgery programs in a first-class hospital.The HRV parameters were compared between the PC group and the non PC(NPC)group from preoperative day 1 to postoperative day(Pod)3.In addition,inflammatory biomarkers and nutritional indicators were also analyzed.RESULTS The complication rate was 14.9%.HRV was markedly abnormal after surgery,especially in the PC group.The frequency-domain parameters(including pNN50)and time-domain parameters[including high-frequency(HF)]of HRV were significantly different between the two groups postoperatively.The pNN50 was significantly greater at Pod1 in the PC group than that in the NPC group and returned to baseline at Pod2,suggesting that patients with complications exhibited autonomic nerve dysfunction in the early postoperative period.In the PC group,HFs were also enhanced from Pod1 and were significantly higher than in the NPC group;inflammatory biomarkers were significantly elevated at Pod2 and Pod3;the levels of nutritional indicators were significantly lower at Pod1 and Pod2;and the white blood cell count was slightly elevated at Pod3.CONCLUSION HRV is independently associated with postoperative complications in patients with CRC.Abnormal HRV could predicted an increased risk of postoperative complications in CRC patients.Continuous HRV could be used to monitor complications in patients with CRC during the perioperative period.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42122034,42075043,42330609)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research program(2019QZKK0103)+2 种基金Key Talent Project in Gansu and Central Guidance Fund for Local Science and Technology Development Projects in Gansu(No.24ZYQA031)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences(2021427)West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(xbzg-zdsys-202215)。
文摘Seasonal precipitation has always been a key focus of climate prediction.As a dynamic-statistical combined method,the existing observational constraint correction establishes a regression relationship between the numerical model outputs and historical observations,which can partly predict seasonal precipitation.However,solving a nonlinear problem through linear regression is significantly biased.This study implements a nonlinear optimization of an existing observational constrained correction model using a Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)machine learning algorithm based on output from the Beijing National Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)and station observations to improve the prediction of summer precipitation in China.The model was trained using a rolling approach,and LightGBM outperformed Linear Regression(LR),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Categorical Boosting(CatBoost).Using parameter tuning to optimize the machine learning model and predict future summer precipitation using eight different predictors in BCC-CSM,the mean Anomaly Correlation Coefficient(ACC)score in the 2019–22 summer precipitation predictions was 0.17,and the mean Prediction Score(PS)reached 74.The PS score was improved by 7.87%and 6.63%compared with the BCC-CSM and the linear observational constraint approach,respectively.The observational constraint correction prediction strategy with LightGBM significantly and stably improved the prediction of summer precipitation in China compared to the previous linear observational constraint solution,providing a reference for flood control and drought relief during the flood season(summer)in China.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)Science and Technology Development Plan in Jilin Province of China(20230203135SF)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875119)Special Fund for Innovative Development of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2022J007)。
文摘Clustered heavy precipitation(CHP)events can severely impact human society,infrastructure,and natural ecosystems.Consequently,short-term climate prediction of CHP events is vital for the prevention and mitigation of associated hazards.Employing year-to-year increment(DY)and multiple linear regression approaches,this study developed a seasonal prediction model for pre-summer(i.e.,May and June)CHP frequency in South China(SC)during 1981–2022.Three robust predictor factors were identified:March sea surface temperature in Southwestern Atlantic,early-winter snow depth in East Europe,and winter soil moisture in Central Asia.Three predictors exert substantial impacts on presummer precipitation in SC via modulation of an anomalous anticyclone(cyclone)over the(subtropical)western North Pacific.In leave-one-out cross-validation test during 1981–2022,the prediction model exhibited reasonable performance in predicting the interannual and interdecadal variations and trends of CHP days.The temporal correlation coefficient(TCC)was 0.66 between the observations and predictions.In the independent hindcast for 2013–2022,the TCC was as high as 0.85.Moreover,coherent covariations were observed between the frequency and the amounts of CHP,with a TCC of 0.99 for 1981–2022.Those three predictors show good performance in forecasting CHP amounts over SC,with a TCC of 0.68 between the predictions and observations in the cross-validation test during 1981–2022 and of 0.86 in the independent hindcasts during 2013–2022.Notably,the predictors also showed good predictive skill for years with high CHP occurrence(e.g.,1998 and 2019).The predicted high-incidence areas of heavy precipitation days were highly consistent with observations,with a pattern correlation coefficient of 0.44(0.55)for 1998(2019).This study provides valuable insights to improve seasonal prediction of pre-summer CHP frequency in SC.
