Time series forecasting is essential for generating predictive insights across various domains, including healthcare, finance, and energy. This study focuses on forecasting patient health data by comparing the perform...Time series forecasting is essential for generating predictive insights across various domains, including healthcare, finance, and energy. This study focuses on forecasting patient health data by comparing the performance of traditional linear time series models, namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA, and Moving Average (MA) against neural network architectures. The primary goal is to evaluate the effectiveness of these models in predicting healthcare outcomes using patient records, specifically the Cancerpatient.xlsx dataset, which tracks variables such as patient age, symptoms, genetic risk factors, and environmental exposures over time. The proposed strategy involves training each model on historical patient data to predict age progression and other related health indicators, with performance evaluated using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metrics. Our findings reveal that neural networks consistently outperform ARIMA and SARIMA by capturing non-linear patterns and complex temporal dependencies within the dataset, resulting in lower forecasting errors. This research highlights the potential of neural networks to enhance predictive accuracy in healthcare applications, supporting better resource allocation, patient monitoring, and long-term health outcome predictions.展开更多
This paper presents a comparative study of ARIMA and Neural Network AutoRegressive (NNAR) models for time series forecasting. The study focuses on simulated data generated using ARIMA(1, 1, 0) and applies both models ...This paper presents a comparative study of ARIMA and Neural Network AutoRegressive (NNAR) models for time series forecasting. The study focuses on simulated data generated using ARIMA(1, 1, 0) and applies both models for training and forecasting. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, AIC, and BIC. The models are further applied to neonatal mortality data from Saudi Arabia to assess their predictive capabilities. The results indicate that the NNAR model outperforms ARIMA in both training and forecasting.展开更多
Fatigue life and reliability of aero-engine blade are always of important significance to flight safety.The establishment of damage model is one of the key factors in blade fatigue research.Conventional linear Miner＇...Fatigue life and reliability of aero-engine blade are always of important significance to flight safety.The establishment of damage model is one of the key factors in blade fatigue research.Conventional linear Miner＇s sum method is not suitable for aero-engine because of its low accuracy.A back propagation neutral network（BPNN） based on the combination of Levenberg-Marquardt（LM） and finite element method（FEM） is used to describe process of nonlinear damage accumulation behavior in material and predict fatigue life of the blade.Fatigue tests of standard specimen made from TC4 are carried out to obtain material fatigue parameters and S-N curve.A nonlinear continuum damage model（CDM）,based on the BPNN with one hidden layer and ten neurons,is built to investigate the nonlinear damage accumulation behavior,in which the results from the tests are used as training set.Comparing with linear models and previous nonlinear models,BPNN has the lowest calculation error in full load range.It has significant accuracy when the load is below 500 MPa.Especially,when the load is 350 MPa,the calculation error of the BPNN is only 0.4%.The accurate model of the blade is built by using 3D coordinate measurement technology.The loading cycle in fatigue analysis is defined from takeoff to cruise in 10 min,and the load history is obtained from finite element analysis（FEA）.Then the fatigue life of the compressor blade is predicted by using the BPNN model.The final fatigue life of the aero-engine blade is 6.55 104 cycles（10 916 h） based on the BPNN model,which is effective for the virtual design of aero-engine blade.展开更多
为揭示直流系统运行方式与变压器直流偏磁现象之间的内在联系,基于宜昌电网的实际参数和PSCAD/EMTDC电磁暂态仿真平台,采用交流系统网络化建模的方法,建立了包含宜昌电网两条500 k V直流输电线路以及接地极临近区域220 k V交流变压器的...为揭示直流系统运行方式与变压器直流偏磁现象之间的内在联系,基于宜昌电网的实际参数和PSCAD/EMTDC电磁暂态仿真平台,采用交流系统网络化建模的方法,建立了包含宜昌电网两条500 k V直流输电线路以及接地极临近区域220 k V交流变压器的直流偏磁电流分布仿真模型。对给定工况下变压器中性点直流电流的分布情况进行了仿真,并与现场实测的数据进行了对比验证,还分别对单接地极场景以及双接地极场景时各个特征变电站主变中性点直流电流分布情况进行仿真,揭示了变压器中性点电位差是决定其直流电流分布特征的根本原因。结果表明:所建立模型的误差在10%以下,具备复现系统实际运行情况的能力。分析结果能够为从系统运行角度抑制直流偏磁提供理论依据。展开更多
文摘Time series forecasting is essential for generating predictive insights across various domains, including healthcare, finance, and energy. This study focuses on forecasting patient health data by comparing the performance of traditional linear time series models, namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA, and Moving Average (MA) against neural network architectures. The primary goal is to evaluate the effectiveness of these models in predicting healthcare outcomes using patient records, specifically the Cancerpatient.xlsx dataset, which tracks variables such as patient age, symptoms, genetic risk factors, and environmental exposures over time. The proposed strategy involves training each model on historical patient data to predict age progression and other related health indicators, with performance evaluated using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metrics. Our findings reveal that neural networks consistently outperform ARIMA and SARIMA by capturing non-linear patterns and complex temporal dependencies within the dataset, resulting in lower forecasting errors. This research highlights the potential of neural networks to enhance predictive accuracy in healthcare applications, supporting better resource allocation, patient monitoring, and long-term health outcome predictions.
文摘This paper presents a comparative study of ARIMA and Neural Network AutoRegressive (NNAR) models for time series forecasting. The study focuses on simulated data generated using ARIMA(1, 1, 0) and applies both models for training and forecasting. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, AIC, and BIC. The models are further applied to neonatal mortality data from Saudi Arabia to assess their predictive capabilities. The results indicate that the NNAR model outperforms ARIMA in both training and forecasting.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 60879002)Tianjin Municipal Science and Technology Support Plan of China (Grant No. 10ZCKFGX03800)
文摘Fatigue life and reliability of aero-engine blade are always of important significance to flight safety.The establishment of damage model is one of the key factors in blade fatigue research.Conventional linear Miner＇s sum method is not suitable for aero-engine because of its low accuracy.A back propagation neutral network（BPNN） based on the combination of Levenberg-Marquardt（LM） and finite element method（FEM） is used to describe process of nonlinear damage accumulation behavior in material and predict fatigue life of the blade.Fatigue tests of standard specimen made from TC4 are carried out to obtain material fatigue parameters and S-N curve.A nonlinear continuum damage model（CDM）,based on the BPNN with one hidden layer and ten neurons,is built to investigate the nonlinear damage accumulation behavior,in which the results from the tests are used as training set.Comparing with linear models and previous nonlinear models,BPNN has the lowest calculation error in full load range.It has significant accuracy when the load is below 500 MPa.Especially,when the load is 350 MPa,the calculation error of the BPNN is only 0.4%.The accurate model of the blade is built by using 3D coordinate measurement technology.The loading cycle in fatigue analysis is defined from takeoff to cruise in 10 min,and the load history is obtained from finite element analysis（FEA）.Then the fatigue life of the compressor blade is predicted by using the BPNN model.The final fatigue life of the aero-engine blade is 6.55 104 cycles（10 916 h） based on the BPNN model,which is effective for the virtual design of aero-engine blade.
文摘为揭示直流系统运行方式与变压器直流偏磁现象之间的内在联系,基于宜昌电网的实际参数和PSCAD/EMTDC电磁暂态仿真平台,采用交流系统网络化建模的方法,建立了包含宜昌电网两条500 k V直流输电线路以及接地极临近区域220 k V交流变压器的直流偏磁电流分布仿真模型。对给定工况下变压器中性点直流电流的分布情况进行了仿真,并与现场实测的数据进行了对比验证,还分别对单接地极场景以及双接地极场景时各个特征变电站主变中性点直流电流分布情况进行仿真,揭示了变压器中性点电位差是决定其直流电流分布特征的根本原因。结果表明:所建立模型的误差在10%以下,具备复现系统实际运行情况的能力。分析结果能够为从系统运行角度抑制直流偏磁提供理论依据。
