Taking the four approaches to internationalization of education as the departure point,the paper analyzes internationalization of higher education in OECD countries.
The neoclassical growth model predicts that capital account liberalization could potentially enhance economic performance;however, there is no consistent empirical evidence to support this positive association. Using ...The neoclassical growth model predicts that capital account liberalization could potentially enhance economic performance;however, there is no consistent empirical evidence to support this positive association. Using a novel dataset of Chinese capital account openness, this paper demonstrates a positive relationship between capital account liberalization and aggregate economic performance. The difference-indifferences method is used to capture the causal effect of capital account liberalization on economic performance by taking advantage of variations in both external financial dependence and the progress of capital account openness. We investigate three channels that could strengthen this positive relationship using a firm-level dataset. We find that capital account liberalization could:(i) alleviate the degree of resource misallocation, and this effect is more significant in industries relying heavily on external finance and in regions with more favorable business environments;(ii) enhance firms' total factor productivity;and (iii) promote innovation. Our findings suggest that a strategy of gradual openness will leave some leeway not only for improvement in domestic markets but also to mitigate exposure to unfavorable global shocks.展开更多
This study aims to measure the impact of liberalization on the efficiency of electricity production in Japan using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). In addition, this study also aims to examine whether or not econom...This study aims to measure the impact of liberalization on the efficiency of electricity production in Japan using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). In addition, this study also aims to examine whether or not economies of scale exist in the electricity generation sector and the transmission sector, and whether or not economies of scope exist between electricity generation and transmission. Since 1995, liberalization of the electricity market in Japan has been phased in and regulations on entry have been relaxed three times. One motivation for these regularity changes has been to improve the efficiency of electricity production by introducing competition. Using a panel data set on the nine main power companies in Japan over the period 1970-2010, estimates of fixed-effects and stochastic frontier models of the cost function are obtained and compared. Estimates of the cost function show that liberalization has improved cost efficiency when both frontier models and non-frontier models are estimated. Estimates of the fixed-effects model are used to calculate economies of scale and economies scope because the data support the fixed-effects model. Economies of scope are found to exist for all nine power companies, while overall economies of scope declined in the 1970s and have improved little by little since the 1980s.展开更多
This paper examines how capital account liberalization （CAL） affects foreign direct investment （FDI） inflows. Authors use a dynamic panel model encompassing 14 Middle East countries over the period from 1985 to 20...This paper examines how capital account liberalization （CAL） affects foreign direct investment （FDI） inflows. Authors use a dynamic panel model encompassing 14 Middle East countries over the period from 1985 to 2009. The findings suggest that countries that are able to reap the benefits of the capital openness policy satisfy certain threshold conditions regarding the level of financial development and institutional quality. Thus to promote FDI, governments in this region should develop a set of policies that not only focus on financial openness, but also on the improvement of the financial system and legal institutions.展开更多
Financial repression does not suit the needs of economic and financial development in the long run, and interest rate liberalization is a natural choice for the development of China＇s financial markets＇. Based on a ...Financial repression does not suit the needs of economic and financial development in the long run, and interest rate liberalization is a natural choice for the development of China＇s financial markets＇. Based on a comparative analysis of interest rate liberalization processes between some developed countries and China and value assignment to key milestones in interest rate markets, the authors have measured the level of China＇s interest rate liberalization to be 80.64%, i.e., a complete liberalization has been initially achieved in China with the notable exception of the deposit interest rate market. Deposit interest rate liberalization is poised to be the last step in China＇s interest rate liberalization process.展开更多
Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of factors.This paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying ...Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of factors.This paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying drivers of trade liberalization.Parametric calibration and simulation methods based on the numeric general equilibrium model are employed to estimate the optimal tariff rates of countries with and without trade retaliation.Then,near-reality assumptions are added into the standard general equilibrium model structure,including the cross-border capital flow,multi-country assumption and trade cost,to simulate decreasing optimal tariff rates.The simulation results suggest that world economic development has increased the economic ties and interdependence among nations,making trade liberalization an endogenous optimal choice.The backlash against globalization in recent years is motivated by short-term factors,but will not persist in the long run since it goes against the law of economic growth and socio-economic development.展开更多
This study models supply response for major agricultural crops in Nigeria which include the standard arguments and price risk. The data comes from Central Bank of Nigeria annual reports and statement of account, Natio...This study models supply response for major agricultural crops in Nigeria which include the standard arguments and price risk. The data comes from Central Bank of Nigeria annual reports and statement of account, National Bureau of Statistics＇ abstract of statistics and annual Agricultural survey manual. The data are analyzed using autoregressive distributed lag and cointegration and error correction models. The results indicate that producers are responsive not only to price but also to price risk and exchange rate.展开更多
In general terms, either complementation relationships or substitution relationships may exist between the foreign trade of a country and its inflow of FDI. The present paper intends to reconstruct an analysis frame o...In general terms, either complementation relationships or substitution relationships may exist between the foreign trade of a country and its inflow of FDI. The present paper intends to reconstruct an analysis frame on the relationships between the foreign trade and inflow of FDI of China since its reform and opening to the outside world. Results from measurement and analysis indicate that there are cause-and-effect relationships between China＇s foreign trade and inflow of FDI.展开更多
With the deepening of economic globalization, trade liberalization and outsourcing exert increasingly important effects on China＇s employment. Based on China＇s （imporO non-competitive input-output table and employm...With the deepening of economic globalization, trade liberalization and outsourcing exert increasingly important effects on China＇s employment. Based on China＇s （imporO non-competitive input-output table and employment data provided by the World Input-Output Database （WIOD）, this paper has estimated China ＂s total employment and skill-specific employment between 1995 and 2009 and utilized structural decomposition method to investigate the effects of trade liberalization and outsourcing as two internationalization factors on China＇s job growth. Results indicate that between 1995 and 2009, China＇s total employment and skill-specific employment increased significantly, and the expansion of final output and particularly export expansion is a major driver of job growth, that the reduction in labor input coefficient is a major restraint of job growth, and that outsourcing is generally unfavorable to China＇s job growth. By specific product categories, their production internationalization effect of the production sectors of different types of products （aggregate effect of trade liberalization and variation in the level of outsourcing on employment variation） derives from different sources. For sectors of low technology products, their production internationalization effect mainly derives from the expansion of the share of export. For the production sectors of medium technology products, their production internationalization effect mainly derives from outsourcing expansion. By specific groups of workforce, low-skilled workforce is the most vulnerable to the impact of production internationalization, medium-skilled workforce is subject to relatively small effect, while the effect on highly-skilled workforce is negligible.展开更多
Under a heterogeneous firm analysis framework,this paper creates a theoretical model to investigate how trade liberalization of intermediates influences the technology choice of firms based on the data of Chinese manu...Under a heterogeneous firm analysis framework,this paper creates a theoretical model to investigate how trade liberalization of intermediates influences the technology choice of firms based on the data of Chinese manufacturers during 2000-2006.According to our empirical result,after China's WTO entry,trade liberalization of intermediates significantly induced Chinese exporters to apply advanced technologies.In our further consideration of the differentiated productivity of firms,we found that such an effect is related to the initial productivity of firms and only significantly induces mediumproductivity firms to upgrade their technologies.In addition,the technology-promotion effect of trade liberalization of intermediates is the most significant for technology-intensive exporters and the least significant for labor-intensive exporters.展开更多
The objectives of this paper are to examine the nexus between financial liberalization,balance of payment and economic growth in Nigeria.The scope of this study due to data availability,especially on measures of balan...The objectives of this paper are to examine the nexus between financial liberalization,balance of payment and economic growth in Nigeria.The scope of this study due to data availability,especially on measures of balance of payment,covers the period of 1986-2017.This study adopts econometrics techniques of analysis by using Panel Unit Root Tests and Co-integration analysis which is used to determine the long run relationship among economic variables.To test the co-integration relationship this study followed the system proposed by Pedroni(1991)who expands the Engle and Granger[9]two stage technique to heterogeneous board information structure.The study adopts annual time series secondary data for the period of 1986 to 2017.Balance of payment,Official Exchange Rate,Inflation rate(%),Balance of trade,Trade openness,Real Gross Domestic Product growth,and Term of Trade,all data used were obtained from the World Development Indicators.The findings of this study revealed that an increase in exchange rate,interest rate,inflation rate,and trade openness have negatively affect economic growth.Hence,changes or movements in these variables do not necessarily prompt the liberalization decision in the real sector.Therefore,the need to address balance of payment is important,in accordance with the low rate of development in Nigeria.We therefore,recommend that government should monitor both Fiscal and Monetary policies’variables that can significantly influence economic growth in Nigeria.That is,adequate balance of payment that can encourage appropriate financial liberalization should be put in place with,Official Exchange Rate,Inflation rate(%),Balance of trade,Trade openness.展开更多
In order to explore the influence of interest rate liberalization on profitability,an empirical analysis is carried out with the panel data of commercial banks in China from 2009 to 2019.Then,the heterogeneity of the ...In order to explore the influence of interest rate liberalization on profitability,an empirical analysis is carried out with the panel data of commercial banks in China from 2009 to 2019.Then,the heterogeneity of the impact is studied among different banks.The results show that,first,interest rate liberalization and commercial banks'profitability have an inverted U-shaped relationship,whereby interest rate liberalization would increase the profitability of banks in the early stage but would reduce the profitability after reaching a peak inflection point at the later stage.Secondly,the impact varies among different banks,being more significant in urban commercial banks and large state-owned banks.展开更多
In this paper the authors inquire why, after more than 25 years of domestic agricultural reforms in Mexico and 15 years of trade liberalization of maize under the North American Free Trade Agreement （NAFTA）, the dom...In this paper the authors inquire why, after more than 25 years of domestic agricultural reforms in Mexico and 15 years of trade liberalization of maize under the North American Free Trade Agreement （NAFTA）, the domestic production of maize, a non-competitive crop and the major staple in Mexico, has increased. The authors present new empirical evidence showing that, as expected, maize prices in Mexico dropped until 2006 and have experienced a process of convergence with USA prices, and maize imports from the USA have increased. However, despite lower prices, maize production in Mexico has trended upward since 1992, two years before the beginning of NAFTA＇s implementation. Based on the heterogeneity of maize production in Mexico, three possible explanations are proposed to explain this unexpected outcome： government supports to big commercial farmers in the agriculturally rich North of Mexico; the persistence of maize production by subsistence farmers; and to a lesser degree, increasing yields on some irrigated maize farms. We finish the paper by drawing lessons from the experience of Mexico for other Less Developed Countries.展开更多
I. Introduction Today＇s Uzbekistan with its 25 million populations geographically and politically presents the basis of Central Asia. One of the most ancient civilizations in the world was born in this region. The g...I. Introduction Today＇s Uzbekistan with its 25 million populations geographically and politically presents the basis of Central Asia. One of the most ancient civilizations in the world was born in this region. The great Silk Road passed through its territory in the past. The history of my nation is deeply rooted in the centuries and counts more than 3,000 years. From the ancient times such cities as Tashkent, Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva, Termez are well known in the world and their links were spread from China to Spain and from Europe to Indian Ocean.展开更多
In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China＇s international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberal...In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China＇s international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People ＇s Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China＇s gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country ＇s GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two-sided. The renminb i real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.展开更多
China＇s recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structura...China＇s recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China＇s central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks： improvement of commercial banks＇ pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.展开更多
We examine whether the effectiveness of the monetary policy rate transmission differs before and after interest rate liberalization in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test and an error corr...We examine whether the effectiveness of the monetary policy rate transmission differs before and after interest rate liberalization in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test and an error correction model (ECM). The results show that after liberalization the mark-up is lower, and both the Iong-run and shortrun interest rate pass-through has become faster and more complete. We attribute our findings to the ongoing reforms of China's banking system, which has improved the competitiveness of Chinese commercial banks.展开更多
This paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the potential economic effects of trade liberalization across the Taiwan Strait. Our simulation results reveal that cross-Strait trade liberaliz...This paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the potential economic effects of trade liberalization across the Taiwan Strait. Our simulation results reveal that cross-Strait trade liberalization will have significant positive impacts on external trade, domestic investment and real GDP for the economies in this area in general and in Taiwan in particular. Furthermore, the negative impact from the formation of a free trade arrangement between Taiwan and Chinese Mainland on Hong Kong seems to be rather small. These results suggest that cross-Strait trade liberalization is very likely to bring about a win-win situation for the economies in this area.展开更多
Using a panel of India’s registered manufacturing firms and both economy-wide and firm-level financial data,we investigate the effects of India’s financial liberalization on the productivity of its manufacturing sec...Using a panel of India’s registered manufacturing firms and both economy-wide and firm-level financial data,we investigate the effects of India’s financial liberalization on the productivity of its manufacturing sector in the 1990s and 2000s.Our dynamic panel analysis shows that the series of financial liberalization policies/measures,at both the macro and micro levels,significantly enhanced the productivity of the manufacturing sector.Total factor productivity increased for all firms,including those owned by the state government,with greater gains for the firms in the private and foreign sectors.Our results suggest that policies favoring financial liberalization should be pursued further in order for India to foster higher economic growth.展开更多
文摘Taking the four approaches to internationalization of education as the departure point,the paper analyzes internationalization of higher education in OECD countries.
基金The authors are grateful for support from the Natural Science Fund of China(No.71661137003)the National Social Science Fund of China (No.16ZDA032)the Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(No.17JZD015).
文摘The neoclassical growth model predicts that capital account liberalization could potentially enhance economic performance;however, there is no consistent empirical evidence to support this positive association. Using a novel dataset of Chinese capital account openness, this paper demonstrates a positive relationship between capital account liberalization and aggregate economic performance. The difference-indifferences method is used to capture the causal effect of capital account liberalization on economic performance by taking advantage of variations in both external financial dependence and the progress of capital account openness. We investigate three channels that could strengthen this positive relationship using a firm-level dataset. We find that capital account liberalization could:(i) alleviate the degree of resource misallocation, and this effect is more significant in industries relying heavily on external finance and in regions with more favorable business environments;(ii) enhance firms' total factor productivity;and (iii) promote innovation. Our findings suggest that a strategy of gradual openness will leave some leeway not only for improvement in domestic markets but also to mitigate exposure to unfavorable global shocks.
文摘This study aims to measure the impact of liberalization on the efficiency of electricity production in Japan using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). In addition, this study also aims to examine whether or not economies of scale exist in the electricity generation sector and the transmission sector, and whether or not economies of scope exist between electricity generation and transmission. Since 1995, liberalization of the electricity market in Japan has been phased in and regulations on entry have been relaxed three times. One motivation for these regularity changes has been to improve the efficiency of electricity production by introducing competition. Using a panel data set on the nine main power companies in Japan over the period 1970-2010, estimates of fixed-effects and stochastic frontier models of the cost function are obtained and compared. Estimates of the cost function show that liberalization has improved cost efficiency when both frontier models and non-frontier models are estimated. Estimates of the fixed-effects model are used to calculate economies of scale and economies scope because the data support the fixed-effects model. Economies of scope are found to exist for all nine power companies, while overall economies of scope declined in the 1970s and have improved little by little since the 1980s.
文摘This paper examines how capital account liberalization （CAL） affects foreign direct investment （FDI） inflows. Authors use a dynamic panel model encompassing 14 Middle East countries over the period from 1985 to 2009. The findings suggest that countries that are able to reap the benefits of the capital openness policy satisfy certain threshold conditions regarding the level of financial development and institutional quality. Thus to promote FDI, governments in this region should develop a set of policies that not only focus on financial openness, but also on the improvement of the financial system and legal institutions.
文摘Financial repression does not suit the needs of economic and financial development in the long run, and interest rate liberalization is a natural choice for the development of China＇s financial markets＇. Based on a comparative analysis of interest rate liberalization processes between some developed countries and China and value assignment to key milestones in interest rate markets, the authors have measured the level of China＇s interest rate liberalization to be 80.64%, i.e., a complete liberalization has been initially achieved in China with the notable exception of the deposit interest rate market. Deposit interest rate liberalization is poised to be the last step in China＇s interest rate liberalization process.
基金the sponsorship of the Post-funded Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research of the Chinese Ministry of Education (19JHQ062)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) General Program (71572048) for this paper
文摘Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of factors.This paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying drivers of trade liberalization.Parametric calibration and simulation methods based on the numeric general equilibrium model are employed to estimate the optimal tariff rates of countries with and without trade retaliation.Then,near-reality assumptions are added into the standard general equilibrium model structure,including the cross-border capital flow,multi-country assumption and trade cost,to simulate decreasing optimal tariff rates.The simulation results suggest that world economic development has increased the economic ties and interdependence among nations,making trade liberalization an endogenous optimal choice.The backlash against globalization in recent years is motivated by short-term factors,but will not persist in the long run since it goes against the law of economic growth and socio-economic development.
文摘This study models supply response for major agricultural crops in Nigeria which include the standard arguments and price risk. The data comes from Central Bank of Nigeria annual reports and statement of account, National Bureau of Statistics＇ abstract of statistics and annual Agricultural survey manual. The data are analyzed using autoregressive distributed lag and cointegration and error correction models. The results indicate that producers are responsive not only to price but also to price risk and exchange rate.
文摘In general terms, either complementation relationships or substitution relationships may exist between the foreign trade of a country and its inflow of FDI. The present paper intends to reconstruct an analysis frame on the relationships between the foreign trade and inflow of FDI of China since its reform and opening to the outside world. Results from measurement and analysis indicate that there are cause-and-effect relationships between China＇s foreign trade and inflow of FDI.
基金sponsored by the Social Sciences Planning Program(Young PhD Dissertation Program)of Fujian province(2014C044)
文摘With the deepening of economic globalization, trade liberalization and outsourcing exert increasingly important effects on China＇s employment. Based on China＇s （imporO non-competitive input-output table and employment data provided by the World Input-Output Database （WIOD）, this paper has estimated China ＂s total employment and skill-specific employment between 1995 and 2009 and utilized structural decomposition method to investigate the effects of trade liberalization and outsourcing as two internationalization factors on China＇s job growth. Results indicate that between 1995 and 2009, China＇s total employment and skill-specific employment increased significantly, and the expansion of final output and particularly export expansion is a major driver of job growth, that the reduction in labor input coefficient is a major restraint of job growth, and that outsourcing is generally unfavorable to China＇s job growth. By specific product categories, their production internationalization effect of the production sectors of different types of products （aggregate effect of trade liberalization and variation in the level of outsourcing on employment variation） derives from different sources. For sectors of low technology products, their production internationalization effect mainly derives from the expansion of the share of export. For the production sectors of medium technology products, their production internationalization effect mainly derives from outsourcing expansion. By specific groups of workforce, low-skilled workforce is the most vulnerable to the impact of production internationalization, medium-skilled workforce is subject to relatively small effect, while the effect on highly-skilled workforce is negligible.
文摘Under a heterogeneous firm analysis framework,this paper creates a theoretical model to investigate how trade liberalization of intermediates influences the technology choice of firms based on the data of Chinese manufacturers during 2000-2006.According to our empirical result,after China's WTO entry,trade liberalization of intermediates significantly induced Chinese exporters to apply advanced technologies.In our further consideration of the differentiated productivity of firms,we found that such an effect is related to the initial productivity of firms and only significantly induces mediumproductivity firms to upgrade their technologies.In addition,the technology-promotion effect of trade liberalization of intermediates is the most significant for technology-intensive exporters and the least significant for labor-intensive exporters.
文摘The objectives of this paper are to examine the nexus between financial liberalization,balance of payment and economic growth in Nigeria.The scope of this study due to data availability,especially on measures of balance of payment,covers the period of 1986-2017.This study adopts econometrics techniques of analysis by using Panel Unit Root Tests and Co-integration analysis which is used to determine the long run relationship among economic variables.To test the co-integration relationship this study followed the system proposed by Pedroni(1991)who expands the Engle and Granger[9]two stage technique to heterogeneous board information structure.The study adopts annual time series secondary data for the period of 1986 to 2017.Balance of payment,Official Exchange Rate,Inflation rate(%),Balance of trade,Trade openness,Real Gross Domestic Product growth,and Term of Trade,all data used were obtained from the World Development Indicators.The findings of this study revealed that an increase in exchange rate,interest rate,inflation rate,and trade openness have negatively affect economic growth.Hence,changes or movements in these variables do not necessarily prompt the liberalization decision in the real sector.Therefore,the need to address balance of payment is important,in accordance with the low rate of development in Nigeria.We therefore,recommend that government should monitor both Fiscal and Monetary policies’variables that can significantly influence economic growth in Nigeria.That is,adequate balance of payment that can encourage appropriate financial liberalization should be put in place with,Official Exchange Rate,Inflation rate(%),Balance of trade,Trade openness.
基金The study was supported by The Research Start-up Funds ofNorth China University of Technology(Project Number:110051360002).
文摘In order to explore the influence of interest rate liberalization on profitability,an empirical analysis is carried out with the panel data of commercial banks in China from 2009 to 2019.Then,the heterogeneity of the impact is studied among different banks.The results show that,first,interest rate liberalization and commercial banks'profitability have an inverted U-shaped relationship,whereby interest rate liberalization would increase the profitability of banks in the early stage but would reduce the profitability after reaching a peak inflection point at the later stage.Secondly,the impact varies among different banks,being more significant in urban commercial banks and large state-owned banks.
文摘In this paper the authors inquire why, after more than 25 years of domestic agricultural reforms in Mexico and 15 years of trade liberalization of maize under the North American Free Trade Agreement （NAFTA）, the domestic production of maize, a non-competitive crop and the major staple in Mexico, has increased. The authors present new empirical evidence showing that, as expected, maize prices in Mexico dropped until 2006 and have experienced a process of convergence with USA prices, and maize imports from the USA have increased. However, despite lower prices, maize production in Mexico has trended upward since 1992, two years before the beginning of NAFTA＇s implementation. Based on the heterogeneity of maize production in Mexico, three possible explanations are proposed to explain this unexpected outcome： government supports to big commercial farmers in the agriculturally rich North of Mexico; the persistence of maize production by subsistence farmers; and to a lesser degree, increasing yields on some irrigated maize farms. We finish the paper by drawing lessons from the experience of Mexico for other Less Developed Countries.
文摘I. Introduction Today＇s Uzbekistan with its 25 million populations geographically and politically presents the basis of Central Asia. One of the most ancient civilizations in the world was born in this region. The great Silk Road passed through its territory in the past. The history of my nation is deeply rooted in the centuries and counts more than 3,000 years. From the ancient times such cities as Tashkent, Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva, Termez are well known in the world and their links were spread from China to Spain and from Europe to Indian Ocean.
文摘In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China＇s international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People ＇s Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China＇s gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country ＇s GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two-sided. The renminb i real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.
文摘China＇s recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China＇s central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks： improvement of commercial banks＇ pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.
文摘We examine whether the effectiveness of the monetary policy rate transmission differs before and after interest rate liberalization in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test and an error correction model (ECM). The results show that after liberalization the mark-up is lower, and both the Iong-run and shortrun interest rate pass-through has become faster and more complete. We attribute our findings to the ongoing reforms of China's banking system, which has improved the competitiveness of Chinese commercial banks.
文摘This paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the potential economic effects of trade liberalization across the Taiwan Strait. Our simulation results reveal that cross-Strait trade liberalization will have significant positive impacts on external trade, domestic investment and real GDP for the economies in this area in general and in Taiwan in particular. Furthermore, the negative impact from the formation of a free trade arrangement between Taiwan and Chinese Mainland on Hong Kong seems to be rather small. These results suggest that cross-Strait trade liberalization is very likely to bring about a win-win situation for the economies in this area.
文摘Using a panel of India’s registered manufacturing firms and both economy-wide and firm-level financial data,we investigate the effects of India’s financial liberalization on the productivity of its manufacturing sector in the 1990s and 2000s.Our dynamic panel analysis shows that the series of financial liberalization policies/measures,at both the macro and micro levels,significantly enhanced the productivity of the manufacturing sector.Total factor productivity increased for all firms,including those owned by the state government,with greater gains for the firms in the private and foreign sectors.Our results suggest that policies favoring financial liberalization should be pursued further in order for India to foster higher economic growth.
