Chinese seismologists have been coping with the challenging scientific problem of earthquake prediction,but now they are confronted with an even more challenging problem:figuring out a procedure of releasing a predict...Chinese seismologists have been coping with the challenging scientific problem of earthquake prediction,but now they are confronted with an even more challenging problem:figuring out a procedure of releasing a prediction to the public.In order to make the correct decision,in addition to the widely launched studies of seismic hazard and risk analysis,it is necessary to further study the social consequences of releasing an earthquake prediction to the public,and the possible economic cost of prevention countermeasures against earthquakes.It is also necessary to replace deterministic predictions by probabilistic predictions.Probabilistic prediction is a method well-suited for the prediction of chaotic seismic events.It can integrate the long-term risk estimate and short-term forecasting into a unified procedure,make quantitative analysis in decision-making on the release of predictions to the public,and achieve maximum beneficial social results of earthquake prediction.展开更多
This paper studies the evolution charateristics of positive and negative quakes before Hyugo earthquake of M =7.2 and several strong quakes in Kanto area in Japan.The results show that the earthquakes over a certai...This paper studies the evolution charateristics of positive and negative quakes before Hyugo earthquake of M =7.2 and several strong quakes in Kanto area in Japan.The results show that the earthquakes over a certain megnitude are mainly positive ones a certain time before the main shock in or near the focal regions of most strong quakes,and form a concentratingintervals of positive quakes,The main quakes generally locate in or near the areas of positive quake distribution.Negative quakes often occur several months before the main shocks (not excluding positive ones), with the decrease of LURR (Loading/Unloading Response Ratio) values.It possibly shows that earthquake generating process has come to a short term stage.These characteristics may help to predict the time and location of the future earthquakes,and have been applied to the preliminary prediction of the time and the location of the earthquake of M =6.6 on Sep.11,1996 in Kanto area.展开更多
文摘Chinese seismologists have been coping with the challenging scientific problem of earthquake prediction,but now they are confronted with an even more challenging problem:figuring out a procedure of releasing a prediction to the public.In order to make the correct decision,in addition to the widely launched studies of seismic hazard and risk analysis,it is necessary to further study the social consequences of releasing an earthquake prediction to the public,and the possible economic cost of prevention countermeasures against earthquakes.It is also necessary to replace deterministic predictions by probabilistic predictions.Probabilistic prediction is a method well-suited for the prediction of chaotic seismic events.It can integrate the long-term risk estimate and short-term forecasting into a unified procedure,make quantitative analysis in decision-making on the release of predictions to the public,and achieve maximum beneficial social results of earthquake prediction.
文摘This paper studies the evolution charateristics of positive and negative quakes before Hyugo earthquake of M =7.2 and several strong quakes in Kanto area in Japan.The results show that the earthquakes over a certain megnitude are mainly positive ones a certain time before the main shock in or near the focal regions of most strong quakes,and form a concentratingintervals of positive quakes,The main quakes generally locate in or near the areas of positive quake distribution.Negative quakes often occur several months before the main shocks (not excluding positive ones), with the decrease of LURR (Loading/Unloading Response Ratio) values.It possibly shows that earthquake generating process has come to a short term stage.These characteristics may help to predict the time and location of the future earthquakes,and have been applied to the preliminary prediction of the time and the location of the earthquake of M =6.6 on Sep.11,1996 in Kanto area.
