Machine learning is currently one of the research hotspots in the field of landslide prediction.To clarify and evaluate the differences in characteristics and prediction effects of different machine learning models,Co...Machine learning is currently one of the research hotspots in the field of landslide prediction.To clarify and evaluate the differences in characteristics and prediction effects of different machine learning models,Conghua District,which is the most prone to landslide disasters in Guangzhou,was selected for landslide susceptibility evaluation.The evaluation factors were selected by using correlation analysis and variance expansion factor method.Applying four machine learning methods namely Logistic Regression(LR),Random Forest(RF),Support Vector Machines(SVM),and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGB),landslide models were constructed.Comparative analysis and evaluation of the model were conducted through statistical indices and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.The results showed that LR,RF,SVM,and XGB models have good predictive performance for landslide susceptibility,with the area under curve(AUC)values of 0.752,0.965,0.996,and 0.998,respectively.XGB model had the highest predictive ability,followed by RF model,SVM model,and LR model.The frequency ratio(FR)accuracy of LR,RF,SVM,and XGB models was 0.775,0.842,0.759,and 0.822,respectively.RF and XGB models were superior to LR and SVM models,indicating that the integrated algorithm has better predictive ability than a single classification algorithm in regional landslide classification problems.展开更多
Medication-related osteonecrosis of the jaw(MRONJ)is primarily associated with administering antiresorptive or antiangiogenic drugs.Despite significant research on MRONJ,its pathogenesis and effective treatments are s...Medication-related osteonecrosis of the jaw(MRONJ)is primarily associated with administering antiresorptive or antiangiogenic drugs.Despite significant research on MRONJ,its pathogenesis and effective treatments are still not fully understood.Animal models can be used to simulate the pathophysiological features of MRONJ,serving as standardized in vivo experimental platforms to explore the pathogenesis and therapies of MRONJ.Rodent models exhibit excellent effectiveness and high reproducibility in mimicking human MRONJ,but classical methods cannot achieve a complete replica of the pathogenesis of MRONJ.Modified rodent models have been reported with improvements for better mimicking of MRONJ onset in clinic.This review summarizes representative classical and modified rodent models of MRONJ created through various combinations of systemic drug induction and local stimulation and discusses their effectiveness and efficiency.Currently,there is a lack of a unified assessment system for MRONJ models,which hinders a standard definition of MRONJ-like lesions in rodents.Therefore,this review comprehensively summarizes assessment systems based on published peer-review articles,including new approaches in gross observation,histological assessments,radiographic assessments,and serological assessments.This review can serve as a reference for model establishment and evaluation in future preclinical studies on MRONJ.展开更多
Energy development concerns not only the development of renewable energies but also the shift from centralised to clean,decentralised power generation.The development of decentralised energy(DE)is a core part of the e...Energy development concerns not only the development of renewable energies but also the shift from centralised to clean,decentralised power generation.The development of decentralised energy(DE)is a core part of the energy and economic strategies being adopted around the world that drives the progress toward a highly sustainable future.This paper reviews the concepts,development status,trends,benefits and challenges of DE systems and analyses the existing models and methods for assessing the performance of these systems.A hierarchical decision model for evaluating the performance of DE systems is also constructed based on the framework of multiple criteria decision analysis,which considers the identification,definition and assessment grade of decision criteria.The evidential reasoning approach is applied to aggregate assessment information in a case study of the implementation of an intelligent decision system.Sensitivity and trade-off analyses are also conducted to show how the proposed model can be used to support decision making in DE systems.展开更多
The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evo...The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evolve to address the existing and future challenges by considering the new demands and advancements in safety management.The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment method to meet the needs of process system safety management.The methodology first incorporates possibility,severity,and dynamicity(PSD)to structure the“51X”evaluation indicator system,including the inherent,management,and disturbance risk factors.Subsequently,the four-tier(risk point-unit-enterprise-region)risk assessment(RA)mathematical model has been established to consider supervision needs.And in conclusion,the application of the PSD-RA method in ammonia refrigeration workshop cases and safety risk monitoring systems is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed PSD-RA method in safety management.The findings show that the PSD-RA method can be well integrated with the needs of safety work informatization,which is also helpful for implementing the enterprise's safety work responsibility and the government's safety supervision responsibility.展开更多
The diurnal temperature range(DTR) serves as a vital indicator reflecting both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. This study investigates the historical and projected multitemporal DTR varia...The diurnal temperature range(DTR) serves as a vital indicator reflecting both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. This study investigates the historical and projected multitemporal DTR variations over the Tibetan Plateau. It assesses 23 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) using CN05.1 observational data as validation, evaluating their ability to simulate DTR over the Tibetan Plateau. Then, the evolution of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau under different shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP) scenarios for the near,middle, and long term of future projection are analyzed using 11 selected robustly performing models. Key findings reveal:(1) Among the models examined, BCC-CSM2-MR, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-CC, EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR,FGOALS-g3, FIO-ESM-2-0, GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, and INM-CM5-0 exhibit superior integrated simulation capability for capturing the spatiotemporal variability of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau.(2) Projection indicates a slightly increasing trend in DTR on the Tibetan Plateau in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, and decreasing trends in the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SPP5-8.5 scenarios. In certain areas, such as the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, western hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, southern Kunlun, and the Qaidam basins, the changes in DTR are relatively large.(3) Notably, the warming rate of maximum temperature under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SPP5-8.5 is slower compared to that of minimum temperature, and it emerges as the primary contributor to the projected decrease in DTR over the Tibetan Plateau in the future.展开更多
Zambia like any other country in most African regions is still grappling with the dynamics of harnessing technology for the betterment of Higher Education. The onset of the Covid 19 pandemic brought a test for the pre...Zambia like any other country in most African regions is still grappling with the dynamics of harnessing technology for the betterment of Higher Education. The onset of the Covid 19 pandemic brought a test for the preparedness of the Zambian Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in harnessing technology for pedagogical activities. As countries worldwide switched to electronic learning during the pandemic, the same could not be said for Zambian HEIs. Zambian HEIs struggled to conduct pedagogical activities on learning management platforms. This study investigated the factors affecting the implementation and assessment of learning Management systems in Zambia’s HEIs. With its focus on assessing: 1) system features, 2) compliance with regulatory standards, 3) quality of service and 4) technology acceptance as the four key assessment areas of an LMS, this article proposed a model for assessing learning management systems in Zambian HEIs. To test the proposed model, a software tool was also developed.展开更多
This paper takes the assessment and evaluation of computational mechanics course as the background,and constructs a diversified course evaluation system that is student-centered and integrates both quantitative and qu...This paper takes the assessment and evaluation of computational mechanics course as the background,and constructs a diversified course evaluation system that is student-centered and integrates both quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods.The system not only pays attention to students’practical operation and theoretical knowledge mastery but also puts special emphasis on the cultivation of students’innovative abilities.In order to realize a comprehensive and objective evaluation,the assessment and evaluation method of the entropy weight model combining TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution)multi-attribute decision analysis and entropy weight theory is adopted,and its validity and practicability are verified through example analysis.This method can not only comprehensively and objectively evaluate students’learning outcomes,but also provide a scientific decision-making basis for curriculum teaching reform.The implementation of this diversified course evaluation system can better reflect the comprehensive ability of students and promote the continuous improvement of teaching quality.展开更多
The performance of corporate social responsibility is conducive to the con- tinuous improvement of their profitability, and promotes the upgrading of corporation value. However, it is difficult to confirm, calculate a...The performance of corporate social responsibility is conducive to the con- tinuous improvement of their profitability, and promotes the upgrading of corporation value. However, it is difficult to confirm, calculate and check the costs and benefits brought by the implementation of corporate social responsibility under the current ac- counting theory system, so it is difficult to estimate whether the fulfillment of corpo- rate social responsibility has any effects on the corporation value assessment. Therefore, based on corporate social responsibility, the correction mode of corpora- tion value assessment is put forward.展开更多
Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel...Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush was proposed based on improved attribute mathematical theory.The trigonometric functions were adopted to optimize the attribute mathematical theory,avoiding the influence of mutation points and linear variation zones in traditional linear measurement functions on the accuracy of the model.Based on comprehensive analysis of various factors,five parameters were selected as the evaluation indicators for the model,including tunnel head pressure,permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,crushing degree of surrounding rock,relative angle of joint plane and tunnel section size,under the principle of dimension rationality,independence,directness and quantification.The indicator classifications were determined.The links among measured data were analyzed in detail,and the objective weight of each indicator was determined by using similar weight method.Thereby the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model is established and applied in four target segments of two different tunnels in engineering.The evaluation results and the actual excavation data agree well,which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility.展开更多
In this study, a risk-based management model is developed and applied to an industrial zone. The models proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Han Bing have been improved by adding a residua...In this study, a risk-based management model is developed and applied to an industrial zone. The models proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Han Bing have been improved by adding a residual ratio of volatile organic compounds （VOC） after boiling and deleting the related parameters in half-life. Using this improved model, an integrated process was used to assess human health risk level in the study area. Compared with water quality analysis, the results highlight the importance of applying an integrated approach for decision making on risk levels and water protection. The results of this study demonstrated that： （1） Compared with these permissible level standards in China （GB 3838-2002） and National Primary Drinking Water Regulations of the United States, the residents＇ daily life had not been affected by the groundwater in this area （except for relative bad water quality of HB3-4 and HB3-6）; （2） The typical detected organic contaminants of all groundwater samples were chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethene, and the pollution sources were mainly industrial sources by preliminary investigations; （3） As for groundwater, the non-carcinogenic risk values of all samples do not exceed the permissible level of 1.0 and the carcinogenic risk values are relatively lower than the permissible level of 1.00E-06 to 1.00E-04; （4） Drinking water pathway of trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene mainly contribute to increasing the health risk of residents＇ in study areas; （5） In terms of non-carcinogenic risk and carcinogenic risk, the health risk order for drinking water pathway and dermal contact pathway was： drinking water pathway 〉 dermal contact pathway.展开更多
To quantify unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)flight risks in low-altitude airspace,we analyze the factors of UAV flight risks from three aspects:flight conflict,flight environment,and traffic characteristics.The aerial ris...To quantify unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)flight risks in low-altitude airspace,we analyze the factors of UAV flight risks from three aspects:flight conflict,flight environment,and traffic characteristics.The aerial risk index and ground risk index of the UAV are constructed,the index screening model and the UAV flight risk assessment model are established,and a UAV flight risk assessment model based on K-means clustering has been proposed.Meanwhile,numerical simulations show the proposed method can not only evaluate the UAV flight risks effectively,but also provide technical support for UAV risk management and control.展开更多
A model for evaluating structural damage of recycled aggregate concrete filled steel tube （RCFST） columns under seismic effects is proposed in this paper. The proposed model takes the lateral deformation and the eff...A model for evaluating structural damage of recycled aggregate concrete filled steel tube （RCFST） columns under seismic effects is proposed in this paper. The proposed model takes the lateral deformation and the effect of repeated cyclic loading into account. Available test results were collected and utilized to calibrate the parameters of the proposed model. A seismic test for six RCFST columns was also performed to validate the proposed damage assessment model. The main test parameters were the recycled coarse aggregate （RCA） replacement percentage and the bond-slip property. The test results indicated that the seismic performance of the RCFST member depends on the RCA contents and their damage index increases as the RCA replacement percentage increases. It is also indicated that the damage degree of RCFST changes with the variation of the RCA replacement percentage. Finally, comparisons between the RCA contents, lateral deformation ratio and damage degree were implemented. It is suggested that an improvement procedure should be implemented in order to compensate for the performance difference between the RCFST and normal concrete filled steel tubes （CFST）.展开更多
With the development of EMC technology, EMC assessment has become increasingly important in EMC design. Although numerous EMC assessment models are available today, few of them can provide a tradeoff between efficienc...With the development of EMC technology, EMC assessment has become increasingly important in EMC design. Although numerous EMC assessment models are available today, few of them can provide a tradeoff between efficiency and accuracy for the specific case of military vehicular communication systems. Face to this situation, a modified four-level assessment model is proposed in the paper. First, the development of EMC assessment technology is briefly reviewed, and the theoretical mechanism of EMI environment is introduced. Then, the architecture of the proposed model is outlined, and the assessment methods are explored. To demonstrate the application of it, an example involving a communication system in a military vehicle is presented. From the physical layer to the signal layer, a hierarchical assessment on the entire system is successfully performed based on the proposed model, and we can make a qualitative EMC assessment on the EMC performance of the system. Based on a comparison with the traditional model, we conclude that the proposed model is more accurate, more efficient and less time-consuming, which is suitable for the EMC assessment on militaryvehicular communication systems. We hope that the proposed model will serve as a useful reference for system-level EMC assessments for other systems.展开更多
AIM:To explore the related risk factors for diabetic retinopathy(DR)in type 2 diabetes with insulin therapy.METHODS:We studied the relationships among blood glucose,serum C-peptide,plasma insulin,beta-cell function an...AIM:To explore the related risk factors for diabetic retinopathy(DR)in type 2 diabetes with insulin therapy.METHODS:We studied the relationships among blood glucose,serum C-peptide,plasma insulin,beta-cell function and the development of DR.Beta-cell function was assessed by a modified homeostasis model assessment(modified HOMA)which was gained by using C-peptide to replace insulin in the homeostasis model assessment(HOMA)of beta-cell function.We also studied the relationships between modified HOMA index and serum C-peptide response to 100 g tasteless steamed bread to determine the accuracy of modified HOMA.RESULTS:Our study group consisted of 170 type 2diabetic inpatients with DR(age:58.35±13.87y,mean±SD)and 205 type 2 diabetic inpatients with no DR(NDR)(age:65.52±11.59y).DR patients had higher age,longer diabetic duration,higher hypertension grade,higher postprandial plasma glucose,higher fluctuation level of plasma glucose,lower body mass index(BMI),lower postprandial serum insulin and C-peptide,lower fluctuation level of serum insulin and C-peptide(P【0.05).In our logistic regression model,duration of diabetes,hypertension grade,fasting plasma insulin and glycosylated hemoglobin(HbA1C)were significantly associated with the presence of DR after adjustment for confounding factors(P【0.05).CONCLUSION:Our results suggested although modified HOMA showed significant correlation to the occurrence of DR on Spearman’s rank-correlationanalysis,logistic regression showed no significant association between these two variables after adjustment for relevant confounding factors(such as age,sex,duration of diabetes,BMI,hypertension grade,HbA1C,plasma insulin).Duration of diabetes,hypertension grade,fasting plasma insulin and HbA1C were independently associated with the development of DR in Chinese type 2 diabetics.展开更多
To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden...To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden oil-spill from the offshore pipeline has been raised. In this paper, we proposed an optimized model to analyze the main causes(probability) of spill and the consequence with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Considering the complicated assessment process for oil-spill, the assessment factor system involving the spill probability and consequence was established based on the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of offshore pipeline in order to estimate the integrated spill risk score automatically. The evaluated factors of spill probability could be grouped into five aspects: corrosion, fatigue, national damage, third party, and operational fault; the consequence evaluated factors of spill included hazard of oil and impact-controlling capability. With some modifications based on experts' opinions, each of the evaluated factors in our work was developed with a relative weight and evaluation criterion. A test example for an offshore pipeline in the Bohai waters was described to show how the model can be used for an actual case in more detail. By using the oil-spill risk assessment model, it is easy to determine the risk level associated with the ongoing activity and management level and hence to take the risk mitigation action immediately.展开更多
This paper describes the basic connotation of risk perception, the influence factors of the risk perception for agricultural drought and the mainstream assess- ment model. Additionally, it summarizes the latest develo...This paper describes the basic connotation of risk perception, the influence factors of the risk perception for agricultural drought and the mainstream assess- ment model. Additionally, it summarizes the latest developments of research meth- ods for risk perception for the agricultural drought, and the research status of the risk perception for agricultural drought, and put forward the trends of risk perception for the agricultural drought. Finally, it proposes the research areas of the risk per- ception for agricultural drought should be improved in future.展开更多
This paper describes the de？nition of venous thromboembolism and introduces to personalized venous thromboembolism risk assessment tools overseas. Thoughts are given on the development, amendment,application and vali...This paper describes the de？nition of venous thromboembolism and introduces to personalized venous thromboembolism risk assessment tools overseas. Thoughts are given on the development, amendment,application and validation of these tools. The paper provides a reference for building personalized venous thromboembolism risk assessment tools in China.展开更多
Although industrial processes often perform perfectly under design conditions, they may deviate from the optimal operating point owing to parameters drift, environmental disturbances, etc. Thus, it is necessary to dev...Although industrial processes often perform perfectly under design conditions, they may deviate from the optimal operating point owing to parameters drift, environmental disturbances, etc. Thus, it is necessary to develop efficacious strategies or procedure to assess the process performance online. In this paper, we explore the issue of operating optimality assessment for complex industrial processes based on performance-similarity considering nonlinearities and outliers simultaneously, and a general enforced online performance assessment framework is proposed. In the offline part, a new and modified total robust kernel projection to latent structures algorithm,T-KPRM, is proposed and used to evaluate the complex nonlinear industrial process, which can effectively extract the optimal-index-related process variation information from process data and establish assessment models for each performance grades overcoming the effects of outlier. In the online part, the online assessment results can be obtained by calculating the similarity between the online data from a sliding window and each of the performance grades. Furthermore, in order to improve the accuracy of online assessment, we propose an online assessment strategy taking account of the effects of noise and process uncertainties. The Euclidean distance between the sliding data window and the optimal evaluation level is employed to measure the contribution rates of variables, which indicate the possible reason for the non-optimal operating performance. The proposed framework is tested on a real industrial case: dense medium coal preparation process, and the results shows the efficiency of the proposed method comparing to the existing method.展开更多
Based on the high temperature data of June to August in 1961-2000 in North China, the high temperature weather processes are investigated, and a more complete data set for severe high temperature processes is created....Based on the high temperature data of June to August in 1961-2000 in North China, the high temperature weather processes are investigated, and a more complete data set for severe high temperature processes is created. The climatic characteristics of adverse high temperature weather in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Jinan and Taiyuan are analyzed respectively. The major features of the East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are discussed. The outcomes indicate that the influence of both East Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High on these weather events varies, by a larger margin, from one city to another over North China and they are also closely related to the relative humidity. It is found that the behaviours of East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are the major important systems that give rise to the summer high temperature weather over the region. Based on these findings, the 5-day, 10-day and monthly assessment models for such high impact events have been developed. The assessment outcomes prove to be useful in assessing severe high-temperature events in major cities of North China.展开更多
This paper addresses the problem of assessing and optimizing the acoustic positioning system for underwater target localization with range measurement.We present a new three-dimensional assessment model to evaluate th...This paper addresses the problem of assessing and optimizing the acoustic positioning system for underwater target localization with range measurement.We present a new three-dimensional assessment model to evaluate the optimal geometric beacon formation whether meets user requirements.For mathematical tractability,it is assumed that the measurements of the range between the target and beacons are corrupted with white Gaussian noise with variance,which is distance-dependent.Then,the relationship between DOP parameters and positioning accuracy can be derived by adopting dilution of precision(DOP)parameters in the assessment model.In addition,the optimal geometric beacon formation yielding the best performance can be achieved via minimizing the values of geometric dilution of precision(GDOP)in the case where the target position is known and fixed.Next,in order to ensure that the estimated positioning accuracy on the region of interest satisfies the precision required by the user,geometric positioning accuracy(GPA),horizontal positioning accuracy(HPA)and vertical positioning accuracy(VPA)are utilized to assess the optimal geometric beacon formation.Simulation examples are designed to illustrate the exactness of the conclusion.Unlike other work that only uses GDOP to optimize the formation and cannot assess the performance of the specified size,this new three-dimensional assessment model can evaluate the optimal geometric beacon formation for each dimension of any point in three-dimensional space,which can provide guidance to optimize the performance of each specified dimension.展开更多
基金supported by the projects of the China Geological Survey(DD20221729,DD20190291)Zhuhai Urban Geological Survey(including informatization)(MZCD–2201–008).
文摘Machine learning is currently one of the research hotspots in the field of landslide prediction.To clarify and evaluate the differences in characteristics and prediction effects of different machine learning models,Conghua District,which is the most prone to landslide disasters in Guangzhou,was selected for landslide susceptibility evaluation.The evaluation factors were selected by using correlation analysis and variance expansion factor method.Applying four machine learning methods namely Logistic Regression(LR),Random Forest(RF),Support Vector Machines(SVM),and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGB),landslide models were constructed.Comparative analysis and evaluation of the model were conducted through statistical indices and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.The results showed that LR,RF,SVM,and XGB models have good predictive performance for landslide susceptibility,with the area under curve(AUC)values of 0.752,0.965,0.996,and 0.998,respectively.XGB model had the highest predictive ability,followed by RF model,SVM model,and LR model.The frequency ratio(FR)accuracy of LR,RF,SVM,and XGB models was 0.775,0.842,0.759,and 0.822,respectively.RF and XGB models were superior to LR and SVM models,indicating that the integrated algorithm has better predictive ability than a single classification algorithm in regional landslide classification problems.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.81921002,No.81900970)Young Physician Innovation Team Project(No.QC202003)from Ninth People’s Hospital,Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai Sailing Program(19YF1426000)jointly。
文摘Medication-related osteonecrosis of the jaw(MRONJ)is primarily associated with administering antiresorptive or antiangiogenic drugs.Despite significant research on MRONJ,its pathogenesis and effective treatments are still not fully understood.Animal models can be used to simulate the pathophysiological features of MRONJ,serving as standardized in vivo experimental platforms to explore the pathogenesis and therapies of MRONJ.Rodent models exhibit excellent effectiveness and high reproducibility in mimicking human MRONJ,but classical methods cannot achieve a complete replica of the pathogenesis of MRONJ.Modified rodent models have been reported with improvements for better mimicking of MRONJ onset in clinic.This review summarizes representative classical and modified rodent models of MRONJ created through various combinations of systemic drug induction and local stimulation and discusses their effectiveness and efficiency.Currently,there is a lack of a unified assessment system for MRONJ models,which hinders a standard definition of MRONJ-like lesions in rodents.Therefore,this review comprehensively summarizes assessment systems based on published peer-review articles,including new approaches in gross observation,histological assessments,radiographic assessments,and serological assessments.This review can serve as a reference for model establishment and evaluation in future preclinical studies on MRONJ.
文摘Energy development concerns not only the development of renewable energies but also the shift from centralised to clean,decentralised power generation.The development of decentralised energy(DE)is a core part of the energy and economic strategies being adopted around the world that drives the progress toward a highly sustainable future.This paper reviews the concepts,development status,trends,benefits and challenges of DE systems and analyses the existing models and methods for assessing the performance of these systems.A hierarchical decision model for evaluating the performance of DE systems is also constructed based on the framework of multiple criteria decision analysis,which considers the identification,definition and assessment grade of decision criteria.The evidential reasoning approach is applied to aggregate assessment information in a case study of the implementation of an intelligent decision system.Sensitivity and trade-off analyses are also conducted to show how the proposed model can be used to support decision making in DE systems.
基金key technology project for the prevention and control of major workplace safety accidents in 2017 from the State Administration of Work Safety of China-the research on the identification and assessment technology and control system of major risks of enterprises for the prevention and control of severe accidents(Hubei-0002-2017AQ)supported by the Department of Emergency Management of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430064,China.
文摘The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evolve to address the existing and future challenges by considering the new demands and advancements in safety management.The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment method to meet the needs of process system safety management.The methodology first incorporates possibility,severity,and dynamicity(PSD)to structure the“51X”evaluation indicator system,including the inherent,management,and disturbance risk factors.Subsequently,the four-tier(risk point-unit-enterprise-region)risk assessment(RA)mathematical model has been established to consider supervision needs.And in conclusion,the application of the PSD-RA method in ammonia refrigeration workshop cases and safety risk monitoring systems is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed PSD-RA method in safety management.The findings show that the PSD-RA method can be well integrated with the needs of safety work informatization,which is also helpful for implementing the enterprise's safety work responsibility and the government's safety supervision responsibility.
基金supported by The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program(Grant No. 2019QZKK0102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41975135)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan,China (Grant No. 2022NSFSC1092)funded by the China Scholarship Council。
文摘The diurnal temperature range(DTR) serves as a vital indicator reflecting both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. This study investigates the historical and projected multitemporal DTR variations over the Tibetan Plateau. It assesses 23 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) using CN05.1 observational data as validation, evaluating their ability to simulate DTR over the Tibetan Plateau. Then, the evolution of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau under different shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP) scenarios for the near,middle, and long term of future projection are analyzed using 11 selected robustly performing models. Key findings reveal:(1) Among the models examined, BCC-CSM2-MR, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-CC, EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR,FGOALS-g3, FIO-ESM-2-0, GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, and INM-CM5-0 exhibit superior integrated simulation capability for capturing the spatiotemporal variability of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau.(2) Projection indicates a slightly increasing trend in DTR on the Tibetan Plateau in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, and decreasing trends in the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SPP5-8.5 scenarios. In certain areas, such as the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, western hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, southern Kunlun, and the Qaidam basins, the changes in DTR are relatively large.(3) Notably, the warming rate of maximum temperature under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SPP5-8.5 is slower compared to that of minimum temperature, and it emerges as the primary contributor to the projected decrease in DTR over the Tibetan Plateau in the future.
文摘Zambia like any other country in most African regions is still grappling with the dynamics of harnessing technology for the betterment of Higher Education. The onset of the Covid 19 pandemic brought a test for the preparedness of the Zambian Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in harnessing technology for pedagogical activities. As countries worldwide switched to electronic learning during the pandemic, the same could not be said for Zambian HEIs. Zambian HEIs struggled to conduct pedagogical activities on learning management platforms. This study investigated the factors affecting the implementation and assessment of learning Management systems in Zambia’s HEIs. With its focus on assessing: 1) system features, 2) compliance with regulatory standards, 3) quality of service and 4) technology acceptance as the four key assessment areas of an LMS, this article proposed a model for assessing learning management systems in Zambian HEIs. To test the proposed model, a software tool was also developed.
基金2024 Key Project of Teaching Reform Research and Practice in Higher Education in Henan Province“Exploration and Practice of Training Model for Outstanding Students in Basic Mechanics Discipline”(2024SJGLX094)Henan Province“Mechanics+X”Basic Discipline Outstanding Student Training Base2024 Research and Practice Project of Higher Education Teaching Reform in Henan University of Science and Technology“Optimization and Practice of Ability-Oriented Teaching Mode for Computational Mechanics Course:A New Exploration in Cultivating Practical Simulation Engineers”(2024BK074)。
文摘This paper takes the assessment and evaluation of computational mechanics course as the background,and constructs a diversified course evaluation system that is student-centered and integrates both quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods.The system not only pays attention to students’practical operation and theoretical knowledge mastery but also puts special emphasis on the cultivation of students’innovative abilities.In order to realize a comprehensive and objective evaluation,the assessment and evaluation method of the entropy weight model combining TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution)multi-attribute decision analysis and entropy weight theory is adopted,and its validity and practicability are verified through example analysis.This method can not only comprehensively and objectively evaluate students’learning outcomes,but also provide a scientific decision-making basis for curriculum teaching reform.The implementation of this diversified course evaluation system can better reflect the comprehensive ability of students and promote the continuous improvement of teaching quality.
文摘The performance of corporate social responsibility is conducive to the con- tinuous improvement of their profitability, and promotes the upgrading of corporation value. However, it is difficult to confirm, calculate and check the costs and benefits brought by the implementation of corporate social responsibility under the current ac- counting theory system, so it is difficult to estimate whether the fulfillment of corpo- rate social responsibility has any effects on the corporation value assessment. Therefore, based on corporate social responsibility, the correction mode of corpora- tion value assessment is put forward.
基金Project(2013CB036004) supported by National Basic Research Program(973)of ChinaProject(51378510) supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush was proposed based on improved attribute mathematical theory.The trigonometric functions were adopted to optimize the attribute mathematical theory,avoiding the influence of mutation points and linear variation zones in traditional linear measurement functions on the accuracy of the model.Based on comprehensive analysis of various factors,five parameters were selected as the evaluation indicators for the model,including tunnel head pressure,permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,crushing degree of surrounding rock,relative angle of joint plane and tunnel section size,under the principle of dimension rationality,independence,directness and quantification.The indicator classifications were determined.The links among measured data were analyzed in detail,and the objective weight of each indicator was determined by using similar weight method.Thereby the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model is established and applied in four target segments of two different tunnels in engineering.The evaluation results and the actual excavation data agree well,which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility.
基金supported by National Science and Technology Major Project(No2009 ZX 05039-003,2009 ZX 05039-004,2011ZX05060-005)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No 2010CB428801-1)state-owned land resources investigation(1212010430351)
文摘In this study, a risk-based management model is developed and applied to an industrial zone. The models proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Han Bing have been improved by adding a residual ratio of volatile organic compounds （VOC） after boiling and deleting the related parameters in half-life. Using this improved model, an integrated process was used to assess human health risk level in the study area. Compared with water quality analysis, the results highlight the importance of applying an integrated approach for decision making on risk levels and water protection. The results of this study demonstrated that： （1） Compared with these permissible level standards in China （GB 3838-2002） and National Primary Drinking Water Regulations of the United States, the residents＇ daily life had not been affected by the groundwater in this area （except for relative bad water quality of HB3-4 and HB3-6）; （2） The typical detected organic contaminants of all groundwater samples were chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethene, and the pollution sources were mainly industrial sources by preliminary investigations; （3） As for groundwater, the non-carcinogenic risk values of all samples do not exceed the permissible level of 1.0 and the carcinogenic risk values are relatively lower than the permissible level of 1.00E-06 to 1.00E-04; （4） Drinking water pathway of trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene mainly contribute to increasing the health risk of residents＇ in study areas; （5） In terms of non-carcinogenic risk and carcinogenic risk, the health risk order for drinking water pathway and dermal contact pathway was： drinking water pathway 〉 dermal contact pathway.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 71971114,61573181)Open Grant of State Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Management System and Technique(No. SKLATM201801).
文摘To quantify unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)flight risks in low-altitude airspace,we analyze the factors of UAV flight risks from three aspects:flight conflict,flight environment,and traffic characteristics.The aerial risk index and ground risk index of the UAV are constructed,the index screening model and the UAV flight risk assessment model are established,and a UAV flight risk assessment model based on K-means clustering has been proposed.Meanwhile,numerical simulations show the proposed method can not only evaluate the UAV flight risks effectively,but also provide technical support for UAV risk management and control.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.51408346 and 51438007the Shanghai Science and Technique Committee under Grant No.14231201300
文摘A model for evaluating structural damage of recycled aggregate concrete filled steel tube （RCFST） columns under seismic effects is proposed in this paper. The proposed model takes the lateral deformation and the effect of repeated cyclic loading into account. Available test results were collected and utilized to calibrate the parameters of the proposed model. A seismic test for six RCFST columns was also performed to validate the proposed damage assessment model. The main test parameters were the recycled coarse aggregate （RCA） replacement percentage and the bond-slip property. The test results indicated that the seismic performance of the RCFST member depends on the RCA contents and their damage index increases as the RCA replacement percentage increases. It is also indicated that the damage degree of RCFST changes with the variation of the RCA replacement percentage. Finally, comparisons between the RCA contents, lateral deformation ratio and damage degree were implemented. It is suggested that an improvement procedure should be implemented in order to compensate for the performance difference between the RCFST and normal concrete filled steel tubes （CFST）.
基金supported by the National Moon Exploration Program of China (No. TY3Q20110020)in part supported by the 13th Five-Year Community Technology Research Program of National Equipment Development Department of China (No.41409020301)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (50971094)
文摘With the development of EMC technology, EMC assessment has become increasingly important in EMC design. Although numerous EMC assessment models are available today, few of them can provide a tradeoff between efficiency and accuracy for the specific case of military vehicular communication systems. Face to this situation, a modified four-level assessment model is proposed in the paper. First, the development of EMC assessment technology is briefly reviewed, and the theoretical mechanism of EMI environment is introduced. Then, the architecture of the proposed model is outlined, and the assessment methods are explored. To demonstrate the application of it, an example involving a communication system in a military vehicle is presented. From the physical layer to the signal layer, a hierarchical assessment on the entire system is successfully performed based on the proposed model, and we can make a qualitative EMC assessment on the EMC performance of the system. Based on a comparison with the traditional model, we conclude that the proposed model is more accurate, more efficient and less time-consuming, which is suitable for the EMC assessment on militaryvehicular communication systems. We hope that the proposed model will serve as a useful reference for system-level EMC assessments for other systems.
文摘AIM:To explore the related risk factors for diabetic retinopathy(DR)in type 2 diabetes with insulin therapy.METHODS:We studied the relationships among blood glucose,serum C-peptide,plasma insulin,beta-cell function and the development of DR.Beta-cell function was assessed by a modified homeostasis model assessment(modified HOMA)which was gained by using C-peptide to replace insulin in the homeostasis model assessment(HOMA)of beta-cell function.We also studied the relationships between modified HOMA index and serum C-peptide response to 100 g tasteless steamed bread to determine the accuracy of modified HOMA.RESULTS:Our study group consisted of 170 type 2diabetic inpatients with DR(age:58.35±13.87y,mean±SD)and 205 type 2 diabetic inpatients with no DR(NDR)(age:65.52±11.59y).DR patients had higher age,longer diabetic duration,higher hypertension grade,higher postprandial plasma glucose,higher fluctuation level of plasma glucose,lower body mass index(BMI),lower postprandial serum insulin and C-peptide,lower fluctuation level of serum insulin and C-peptide(P【0.05).In our logistic regression model,duration of diabetes,hypertension grade,fasting plasma insulin and glycosylated hemoglobin(HbA1C)were significantly associated with the presence of DR after adjustment for confounding factors(P【0.05).CONCLUSION:Our results suggested although modified HOMA showed significant correlation to the occurrence of DR on Spearman’s rank-correlationanalysis,logistic regression showed no significant association between these two variables after adjustment for relevant confounding factors(such as age,sex,duration of diabetes,BMI,hypertension grade,HbA1C,plasma insulin).Duration of diabetes,hypertension grade,fasting plasma insulin and HbA1C were independently associated with the development of DR in Chinese type 2 diabetics.
基金the Marine Public Welfare Research Project of China (No. 201205012)Preferential Funding of Tianjin
文摘To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden oil-spill from the offshore pipeline has been raised. In this paper, we proposed an optimized model to analyze the main causes(probability) of spill and the consequence with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Considering the complicated assessment process for oil-spill, the assessment factor system involving the spill probability and consequence was established based on the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of offshore pipeline in order to estimate the integrated spill risk score automatically. The evaluated factors of spill probability could be grouped into five aspects: corrosion, fatigue, national damage, third party, and operational fault; the consequence evaluated factors of spill included hazard of oil and impact-controlling capability. With some modifications based on experts' opinions, each of the evaluated factors in our work was developed with a relative weight and evaluation criterion. A test example for an offshore pipeline in the Bohai waters was described to show how the model can be used for an actual case in more detail. By using the oil-spill risk assessment model, it is easy to determine the risk level associated with the ongoing activity and management level and hence to take the risk mitigation action immediately.
基金Supported by the National Natural Foundation of China(4161100)the Fund Program of Yunnan University(2013CG011)~~
文摘This paper describes the basic connotation of risk perception, the influence factors of the risk perception for agricultural drought and the mainstream assess- ment model. Additionally, it summarizes the latest developments of research meth- ods for risk perception for the agricultural drought, and the research status of the risk perception for agricultural drought, and put forward the trends of risk perception for the agricultural drought. Finally, it proposes the research areas of the risk per- ception for agricultural drought should be improved in future.
文摘This paper describes the de？nition of venous thromboembolism and introduces to personalized venous thromboembolism risk assessment tools overseas. Thoughts are given on the development, amendment,application and validation of these tools. The paper provides a reference for building personalized venous thromboembolism risk assessment tools in China.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61503384,61603393)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu(BK20150199,BK20160275)+1 种基金the Foundation Research Funds for the Central Universities(2015QNA65)the Postdoctoral Foundation of Jiangsu Province(1501081B)
文摘Although industrial processes often perform perfectly under design conditions, they may deviate from the optimal operating point owing to parameters drift, environmental disturbances, etc. Thus, it is necessary to develop efficacious strategies or procedure to assess the process performance online. In this paper, we explore the issue of operating optimality assessment for complex industrial processes based on performance-similarity considering nonlinearities and outliers simultaneously, and a general enforced online performance assessment framework is proposed. In the offline part, a new and modified total robust kernel projection to latent structures algorithm,T-KPRM, is proposed and used to evaluate the complex nonlinear industrial process, which can effectively extract the optimal-index-related process variation information from process data and establish assessment models for each performance grades overcoming the effects of outlier. In the online part, the online assessment results can be obtained by calculating the similarity between the online data from a sliding window and each of the performance grades. Furthermore, in order to improve the accuracy of online assessment, we propose an online assessment strategy taking account of the effects of noise and process uncertainties. The Euclidean distance between the sliding data window and the optimal evaluation level is employed to measure the contribution rates of variables, which indicate the possible reason for the non-optimal operating performance. The proposed framework is tested on a real industrial case: dense medium coal preparation process, and the results shows the efficiency of the proposed method comparing to the existing method.
基金The Additional Study of Short-term Climate Prediction System in China, No.96-908-06-04-05
文摘Based on the high temperature data of June to August in 1961-2000 in North China, the high temperature weather processes are investigated, and a more complete data set for severe high temperature processes is created. The climatic characteristics of adverse high temperature weather in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Jinan and Taiyuan are analyzed respectively. The major features of the East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are discussed. The outcomes indicate that the influence of both East Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High on these weather events varies, by a larger margin, from one city to another over North China and they are also closely related to the relative humidity. It is found that the behaviours of East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are the major important systems that give rise to the summer high temperature weather over the region. Based on these findings, the 5-day, 10-day and monthly assessment models for such high impact events have been developed. The assessment outcomes prove to be useful in assessing severe high-temperature events in major cities of North China.
基金This work was supported by Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province of China(No.117212)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61633008,61374007,61601262 and 61701487)Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(No.F2017005)and China Scholarship Council.
文摘This paper addresses the problem of assessing and optimizing the acoustic positioning system for underwater target localization with range measurement.We present a new three-dimensional assessment model to evaluate the optimal geometric beacon formation whether meets user requirements.For mathematical tractability,it is assumed that the measurements of the range between the target and beacons are corrupted with white Gaussian noise with variance,which is distance-dependent.Then,the relationship between DOP parameters and positioning accuracy can be derived by adopting dilution of precision(DOP)parameters in the assessment model.In addition,the optimal geometric beacon formation yielding the best performance can be achieved via minimizing the values of geometric dilution of precision(GDOP)in the case where the target position is known and fixed.Next,in order to ensure that the estimated positioning accuracy on the region of interest satisfies the precision required by the user,geometric positioning accuracy(GPA),horizontal positioning accuracy(HPA)and vertical positioning accuracy(VPA)are utilized to assess the optimal geometric beacon formation.Simulation examples are designed to illustrate the exactness of the conclusion.Unlike other work that only uses GDOP to optimize the formation and cannot assess the performance of the specified size,this new three-dimensional assessment model can evaluate the optimal geometric beacon formation for each dimension of any point in three-dimensional space,which can provide guidance to optimize the performance of each specified dimension.
