Architecture framework has become an effective method recently to describe the system of systems(SoS)architecture,such as the United States(US)Department of Defense Architecture Framework Version 2.0(DoDAF2.0).As a vi...Architecture framework has become an effective method recently to describe the system of systems(SoS)architecture,such as the United States(US)Department of Defense Architecture Framework Version 2.0(DoDAF2.0).As a viewpoint in DoDAF2.0,the operational viewpoint(OV)describes operational activities,nodes,and resource flows.The OV models are important for SoS architecture development.However,as the SoS complexity increases,constructing OV models with traditional methods exposes shortcomings,such as inefficient data collection and low modeling standards.Therefore,we propose an intelligent modeling method for five OV models,including operational resource flow OV-2,organizational relationships OV-4,operational activity hierarchy OV-5a,operational activities model OV-5b,and operational activity sequences OV-6c.The main idea of the method is to extract OV architecture data from text and generate interoperable OV models.First,we construct the OV meta model based on the DoDAF2.0 meta model(DM2).Second,OV architecture named entities is recognized from text based on the bidirectional long short-term memory and conditional random field(BiLSTM-CRF)model.And OV architecture relationships are collected with relationship extraction rules.Finally,we define the generation rules for OV models and develop an OV modeling tool.We use unmanned surface vehicles(USV)swarm target defense SoS architecture as a case to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the intelligent modeling method.展开更多
Modeling HIV/AIDS progression is critical for understanding disease dynamics and improving patient care. This study compares the Exponential and Weibull survival models, focusing on their ability to capture state-spec...Modeling HIV/AIDS progression is critical for understanding disease dynamics and improving patient care. This study compares the Exponential and Weibull survival models, focusing on their ability to capture state-specific failure rates in HIV/AIDS progression. While the Exponential model offers simplicity with a constant hazard rate, it often fails to accommodate the complexities of dynamic disease progression. In contrast, the Weibull model provides flexibility by allowing hazard rates to vary over time. Both models are evaluated within the frameworks of the Cox Proportional Hazards (Cox PH) and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models, incorporating critical covariates such as age, gender, CD4 count, and ART status. Statistical evaluation metrics, including Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), log-likelihood, and Pseudo-R2, were employed to assess model performance across diverse patient subgroups. Results indicate that the Weibull model consistently outperforms the Exponential model in dynamic scenarios, such as younger patients and those with co-infections, while maintaining robustness in stable contexts. This study highlights the trade-off between flexibility and simplicity in survival modeling, advocating for tailored model selection to balance interpretability and predictive accuracy. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing HIV/AIDS management strategies and advancing survival analysis methodologies.展开更多
In this paper,a physical model of RIS of bistatic polarized radar cross section is derived starting from the Stratton-Chu equations under the assumptions of physical optics,PEC,far field and rectangular RIS element.In...In this paper,a physical model of RIS of bistatic polarized radar cross section is derived starting from the Stratton-Chu equations under the assumptions of physical optics,PEC,far field and rectangular RIS element.In the context of important physical characteristics of the backscattering polarization of RIS,the modeling of the RIS wireless channel requires a tradeoff between complexity and accuracy,as well as usability and simplicity.For channel modeling of RIS systems,RIS is modelled as multi-equivalent virtual base stations(BSs)induced by multi polarized electromagnetic waves from different incident directions.The comparison between test and simulation results demonstrates that the proposed algorithm effectively captures the key characteristics of the general RIS element polarization physical model and provides accurate results.展开更多
As one of the main characteristics of atmospheric pollutants,PM_(2.5) severely affects human health and has received widespread attention in recent years.How to predict the variations of PM_(2.5) concentrations with h...As one of the main characteristics of atmospheric pollutants,PM_(2.5) severely affects human health and has received widespread attention in recent years.How to predict the variations of PM_(2.5) concentrations with high accuracy is an important topic.The PM_(2.5) monitoring stations in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China,are unevenly distributed,which makes it challenging to conduct comprehensive analyses and predictions.Therefore,this study primarily addresses the limitations mentioned above and the poor generalization ability of PM_(2.5) concentration prediction models across different monitoring stations.We chose the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains as the study area and took the January−December in 2019 as the research period.On the basis of data from 21 PM_(2.5) monitoring stations as well as meteorological data(temperature,instantaneous wind speed,and pressure),we developed an improved model,namely GCN−TCN−AR(where GCN is the graph convolution network,TCN is the temporal convolutional network,and AR is the autoregression),for predicting PM_(2.5) concentrations on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.The GCN−TCN−AR model is composed of an improved GCN model,a TCN model,and an AR model.The results revealed that the R2 values predicted by the GCN−TCN−AR model at the four monitoring stations(Urumqi,Wujiaqu,Shihezi,and Changji)were 0.93,0.91,0.93,and 0.92,respectively,and the RMSE(root mean square error)values were 6.85,7.52,7.01,and 7.28μg/m^(3),respectively.The performance of the GCN−TCN−AR model was also compared with the currently neural network models,including the GCN−TCN,GCN,TCN,Support Vector Regression(SVR),and AR.The GCN−TCN−AR outperformed the other current neural network models,with high prediction accuracy and good stability,making it especially suitable for the predictions of PM_(2.5)concentrations.This study revealed the significant spatiotemporal variations of PM_(2.5)concentrations.First,the PM_(2.5) concentrations exhibited clear seasonal fluctuations,with higher levels typically observed in winter and differences presented between months.Second,the spatial distribution analysis revealed that cities such as Urumqi and Wujiaqu have high PM_(2.5) concentrations,with a noticeable geographical clustering of pollutions.Understanding the variations in PM_(2.5) concentrations is highly important for the sustainable development of ecological environment in arid areas.展开更多
Sporadic E(Es)layers in the ionosphere are characterized by intense plasma irregularities in the E region at altitudes of 90-130 km.Because they can significantly influence radio communications and navigation systems,...Sporadic E(Es)layers in the ionosphere are characterized by intense plasma irregularities in the E region at altitudes of 90-130 km.Because they can significantly influence radio communications and navigation systems,accurate forecasting of Es layers is crucial for ensuring the precision and dependability of navigation satellite systems.In this study,we present Es predictions made by an empirical model and by a deep learning model,and analyze their differences comprehensively by comparing the model predictions to satellite RO measurements and ground-based ionosonde observations.The deep learning model exhibited significantly better performance,as indicated by its high coefficient of correlation(r=0.87)with RO observations and predictions,than did the empirical model(r=0.53).This study highlights the importance of integrating artificial intelligence technology into ionosphere modelling generally,and into predicting Es layer occurrences and characteristics,in particular.展开更多
In order to enhance the control performance of piezo-positioning system,the influence of hysteresis characteristics and its compensation method are studied.Hammerstein model is used to represent the dynamic hysteresis...In order to enhance the control performance of piezo-positioning system,the influence of hysteresis characteristics and its compensation method are studied.Hammerstein model is used to represent the dynamic hysteresis nonlinear characteristics of piezo-positioning actuator.The static nonlinear part and dynamic linear part of the Hammerstein model are represented by models obtained through the Prandtl-Ishlinskii(PI)model and Hankel matrix system identification method,respectively.This model demonstrates good generalization capability for typical input frequencies below 200 Hz.A sliding mode inverse compensation tracking control strategy based on P-I inverse model and integral augmentation is proposed.Experimental results show that compared with PID inverse compensation control and sliding mode control without inverse compensation,the sliding mode inverse compensation control has a more ideal step response and no overshoot,moreover,the settling time is only 6.2 ms.In the frequency domain,the system closed-loop tracking bandwidth reaches 119.9 Hz,and the disturbance rejection bandwidth reaches 86.2 Hz.The proposed control strategy can effectively compensate the hysteresis nonlinearity,and improve the tracking accuracy and antidisturbance capability of piezo-positioning system.展开更多
This paper presents a comparative study of ARIMA and Neural Network AutoRegressive (NNAR) models for time series forecasting. The study focuses on simulated data generated using ARIMA(1, 1, 0) and applies both models ...This paper presents a comparative study of ARIMA and Neural Network AutoRegressive (NNAR) models for time series forecasting. The study focuses on simulated data generated using ARIMA(1, 1, 0) and applies both models for training and forecasting. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, AIC, and BIC. The models are further applied to neonatal mortality data from Saudi Arabia to assess their predictive capabilities. The results indicate that the NNAR model outperforms ARIMA in both training and forecasting.展开更多
The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination ...The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination tracker dashboard. GIS-based exploratory analysis was conducted to select four variables (poverty, black race, population density, and vaccination) to explain COVID-19 occurrence during the study period. Consequently, spatial statistical techniques such as Moran’s I, Hot Spot Analysis, Spatial Lag Model (SLM), and Spatial Error Model (SEM) were used to explain the COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate across the 88 counties in Ohio. The result of the Local Moran’s I analysis reveals that the epicenters of COVID-19 and vaccination followed the same patterns. Indeed, counties like Summit, Franklin, Fairfield, Hamilton, and Medina were categorized as epicenters for both COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate. The SEM seems to be the best model for both COVID-19 and vaccination rates, with R2 values of 0.68 and 0.70, respectively. The GWR analysis proves to be better than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and the distribution of R2 in the GWR is uneven throughout the study area for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. Some counties have a high R2 of up to 0.70 for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. The outcomes of the regression analyses show that the SEM models can explain 68% - 70% of COVID-19 cases and vaccination across the entire counties within the study period. COVID-19 cases and vaccination rates exhibited significant positive associations with black race and poverty throughout the study area.展开更多
Bangladesh has a denser population in comparison with many other countries. Though the rate of population increase has been regarded as a concerning issue, estimation of the population instability in the upcoming year...Bangladesh has a denser population in comparison with many other countries. Though the rate of population increase has been regarded as a concerning issue, estimation of the population instability in the upcoming years may be useful for national planning. To predict Bangladesh’s future population, this study compares the estimated populations of two popular population models, the Malthusian and the logistic population models, with the country’s census population published by BBS. We also tried to find out which model gives a better approximation for forecasting the past, present, and future population between these two models.展开更多
In the context of global change,ensuring national food security and achieving sustainable development of agricultural production systems have become major challenges worldwide.To address these issues,regional-scale cr...In the context of global change,ensuring national food security and achieving sustainable development of agricultural production systems have become major challenges worldwide.To address these issues,regional-scale crop growth and associated process(CROP-AP)models,with their robust simulation and predictive capabilities,have emerged as important tools for studying a wide range of issues relating to agricultural production at river basin,national,and even global scales.Here,we provide a systematic review of the advances of regional-scale CROP-AP models.First,regional-scale CROP-AP models are categorized based on model characteristics:statistical models,crop growth models,hydrology-crop coupling models,and ecosystem models.The origin,development,principle,structure,and application of each model type are introduced.Then,the main functions of regional-scale CROP-AP models are critically reviewed from five aspects:crop yield prediction,crop water consumption,agricultural non-point source pollution,greenhouse gas emissions,and climate change impact and responses.Finally,the future development trends and research priorities of regional-scale CROP-AP models are explored from six key perspectives:model validation and calibration,the ability to simulate the coupling of crop physiology and human activities,enhancing model scalability,multi-model ensembles,data and code sharing,and the integration of artificial intelligence.This review aims to provide comprehensive references and insights for the further development and application of large-scale,high-precision CROP-AP models.展开更多
The kinetic characteristics of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia are studied by using the global/fluid models hybrid solution method.Firstly,the stable products of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of a...The kinetic characteristics of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia are studied by using the global/fluid models hybrid solution method.Firstly,the stable products of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia are measured.The results show that the consumption of NH_(3)/O_(2)and the production of N_(2)/H_(2)change linearly with the increase of voltage,which indicates the decoupling of nonequilibrium molecular excitation and oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia at low temperatures.Secondly,the detailed reaction kinetics mechanism of ammonia oxidative pyrolysis stimulated by a nanosecond pulse voltage at low pressure and room temperature is established.Based on the reaction path analysis,the simplified mechanism is obtained.The detailed and simplified mechanism simulation results are compared with experimental data to verify the accuracy of the simplified mechanism.Finally,based on the simplified mechanism,the fluid model of ammonia oxidative pyrolysis stimulated by the nanosecond pulse plasma is established to study the pre-sheath/sheath behavior and the resultant consumption and formation of key species.The results show that the generation,development,and propagation of the pre-sheath have a great influence on the formation and consumption of species.The consumption of NH_(3)by the cathode pre-sheath is greater than that by the anode pre-sheath,but the opposite is true for OH and O(1S).However,within the sheath,almost all reactions do not occur.Further,by changing the parameters of nanosecond pulse power supply voltage,it is found that the electron number density,electron current density,and applied peak voltages are not the direct reasons for the structural changes of the sheath and pre-sheath.Furthermore,the discharge interval has little effect on the sheath structure and gas mixture breakdown.The research results of this paper not only help to understand the kinetic promotion of non-equilibrium excitation in the process of oxidative pyrolysis but also help to explore the influence of transport and chemical reaction kinetics on the oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia.展开更多
This paper develops a comprehensive computational modeling and simulation framework based on Complex Adaptive Systems(CAS)theory to unveil the underlying mechanisms of self-organization,nonlinear evolution,and emergen...This paper develops a comprehensive computational modeling and simulation framework based on Complex Adaptive Systems(CAS)theory to unveil the underlying mechanisms of self-organization,nonlinear evolution,and emergence in social systems.By integrating mathematical models,agent-based modeling,network dynamic analysis,and hybrid modeling approaches,the study applies CAS theory to case studies in economic markets,political decision-making,and social interactions.The experimental results demonstrate that local interactions among individual agents can give rise to complex global phenomena,such as market fluctuations,opinion polarization,and sudden outbreaks of social movements.This framework not only provides a more robust explanation for the nonlinear dynamics and abrupt transitions that traditional models often fail to capture,but also offers valuable decision-support tools for public policy formulation,social governance,and risk management.Emphasizing the importance of interdisciplinary approaches,this work outlines future research directions in high-performance computing,artificial intelligence,and real-time data integration to further advance the theoretical and practical applications of CAS in the social sciences.展开更多
Frozen shoulder(FS),also known as adhesive capsulitis,is a condition that causes contraction and stiffness of the shoulder joint capsule.The main symptoms are per-sistent shoulder pain and a limited range of motion in...Frozen shoulder(FS),also known as adhesive capsulitis,is a condition that causes contraction and stiffness of the shoulder joint capsule.The main symptoms are per-sistent shoulder pain and a limited range of motion in all directions.These symp-toms and poor prognosis affect people's physical health and quality of life.Currently,the specific mechanisms of FS remain unclear,and there is variability in treatment methods and their efficacy.Additionally,the early symptoms of FS are difficult to distinguish from those of other shoulder diseases,complicating early diagnosis and treatment.Therefore,it is necessary to develop and utilize animal models to under-stand the pathogenesis of FS and to explore treatment strategies,providing insights into the prevention and treatment of human FS.This paper reviews the rat models available for FS research,including external immobilization models,surgical internal immobilization models,injection modeling models,and endocrine modeling models.It introduces the basic procedures for these models and compares and analyzes the advantages,disadvantages,and applicability of each modeling method.Finally,our paper summarizes the common methods for evaluating FS rat models.展开更多
Foundation models(FMs)have rapidly evolved and have achieved signicant accomplishments in computer vision tasks.Specically,the prompt mechanism conveniently allows users to integrate image prior information into the m...Foundation models(FMs)have rapidly evolved and have achieved signicant accomplishments in computer vision tasks.Specically,the prompt mechanism conveniently allows users to integrate image prior information into the model,making it possible to apply models without any training.Therefore,we proposed a workflow based on foundation models and zero training to solve the tasks of photoacoustic(PA)image processing.We employed the Segment Anything Model(SAM)by setting simple prompts and integrating the model's outputs with prior knowledge of the imaged objects to accomplish various tasks,including:(1)removing the skin signal in three-dimensional PA image rendering;(2)dual speed-of-sound reconstruction,and(3)segmentation ofnger blood vessels.Through these demonstrations,we have concluded that FMs can be directly applied in PA imaging without the requirement for network design and training.This potentially allows for a hands-on,convenient approach to achieving efficient and accurate segmentation of PA images.This paper serves as a comprehensive tutorial,facilitating the mastery of the technique through the provision of code and sample datasets.展开更多
Sentiment analysis,a cornerstone of natural language processing,has witnessed remarkable advancements driven by deep learning models which demonstrated impressive accuracy in discerning sentiment from text across vari...Sentiment analysis,a cornerstone of natural language processing,has witnessed remarkable advancements driven by deep learning models which demonstrated impressive accuracy in discerning sentiment from text across various domains.However,the deployment of such models in resource-constrained environments presents a unique set of challenges that require innovative solutions.Resource-constrained environments encompass scenarios where computing resources,memory,and energy availability are restricted.To empower sentiment analysis in resource-constrained environments,we address the crucial need by leveraging lightweight pre-trained models.These models,derived from popular architectures such as DistilBERT,MobileBERT,ALBERT,TinyBERT,ELECTRA,and SqueezeBERT,offer a promising solution to the resource limitations imposed by these environments.By distilling the knowledge from larger models into smaller ones and employing various optimization techniques,these lightweight models aim to strike a balance between performance and resource efficiency.This paper endeavors to explore the performance of multiple lightweight pre-trained models in sentiment analysis tasks specific to such environments and provide insights into their viability for practical deployment.展开更多
The thermally activated effect can produce a vital influence on the mechanical property and cutting force of metal materials in the machining process.An insight can be gained into the action criteria of the thermally ...The thermally activated effect can produce a vital influence on the mechanical property and cutting force of metal materials in the machining process.An insight can be gained into the action criteria of the thermally activated effect on the cutting force,which provides a solid basis of the research of material performance and machinability.In this study,a cutting force model of selective laser melted(SLMed)Ti6Al4V alloy is proposed by introducing the modified constitutive model with thermally activated effects and the analytical model of the deformation zone into the cutting force model.The anisotropic properties of SLMed Ti6Al4V alloy under different scanning strategies(0°,67.5°,and 90°)are explored by combining with the cutting force model,constitutive model and analytical model of deformation zone(primary deformation and tool-chip contact area).The action of thermally activated effects on the cutting force,primary deformation and tool-chip contact zone is also researched in detail.Milling experiments and predictions of SLMed Ti6Al4V alloy under different scanning strategies have been implemented to reveal the effectiveness of this new model.The comparison results indicate that the proposed milling force model can effectively predict milling force and reflect well on the anisotropy of SLMed Ti6Al4V alloy.In addition,this proposed force model can well analyze the action mechanism of the thermally activated effect on the milling force of SLMed Ti6Al4V alloy,which is significantly essential for the machining mechanism research in terms of a microscopic perspective.展开更多
Based on the hindcasts from five subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)models participating in the S2S Prediction Project,this study evaluates the performance of the multimodel ensemble(MME)approach in predicting the subseasona...Based on the hindcasts from five subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)models participating in the S2S Prediction Project,this study evaluates the performance of the multimodel ensemble(MME)approach in predicting the subseasonal precipitation anomalies during summer in China and reveals the contributions of possible driving factors.The results suggest that while single-model ensembles(SMEs)exhibit constrained predictive skills within a limited forecast lead time of three pentads,the MME illustrates an enhanced predictive skill at a lead time of up to four pentads,and even six pentads,in southern China.Based on both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics,the MME consistently outperforms SMEs,with a more evident advantage observed in probabilistic forecasting.The superior performance of the MME is primarily attributable to the increase in ensemble size,and the enhanced model diversity is also a contributing factor.The reliability of probabilistic skill is largely improved due to the increase in ensemble members,while the resolution term does not exhibit consistent improvement.Furthermore,the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)is revealed as the primary driving factor for the successful prediction of summer precipitation in China using the MME.The improvement by the MME is not solely attributable to the enhancement in the inherent predictive capacity of the MJO itself,but derives from its capability in capturing the more realistic relationship between the MJO and subseasonal precipitation anomalies in China.This study establishes a scientific foundation for acknowledging the advantageous predictive capability of the MME approach in subseasonal predictions of summer precipitation in China,and sheds light on further improving S2S predictions.展开更多
Model-based system-of-systems(SOS)engineering(MBSoSE)is becoming a promising solution for the design of SoS with increasing complexity.However,bridging the models from the design phase to the simulation phase poses si...Model-based system-of-systems(SOS)engineering(MBSoSE)is becoming a promising solution for the design of SoS with increasing complexity.However,bridging the models from the design phase to the simulation phase poses significant challenges and requires an integrated approach.In this study,a unified requirement modeling approach is proposed based on unified architecture framework(UAF).Theoretical models are proposed which compose formalized descriptions from both topdown and bottom-up perspectives.Based on the description,the UAF profile is proposed to represent the SoS mission and constituent systems(CS)goal.Moreover,the agent-based simulation information is also described based on the overview,design concepts,and details(ODD)protocol as the complement part of the SoS profile,which can be transformed into different simulation platforms based on the eXtensible markup language(XML)technology and model-to-text method.In this way,the design of the SoS is simulated automatically in the early design stage.Finally,the method is implemented and an example is given to illustrate the whole process.展开更多
The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized tha...The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world applications, the population usually has an explicit spatial structure which can significantly influence the dynamics. In the context of cancer initiation in epithelial tissue, several recent works have analyzed the dynamics of advantageous mutant spread on integer lattices, using the biased voter model from particle systems theory. In this spatial version of the Moran model, individuals first reproduce according to their fitness and then replace a neighboring individual. From a biological standpoint, the opposite dynamics, where individuals first die and are then replaced by a neighboring individual according to its fitness, are equally relevant. Here, we investigate this death-birth analogue of the biased voter model. We construct the process mathematically, derive the associated dual process, establish bounds on the survival probability of a single mutant, and prove that the process has an asymptotic shape. We also briefly discuss alternative birth-death and death-birth dynamics, depending on how the mutant fitness advantage affects the dynamics. We show that birth-death and death-birth formulations of the biased voter model are equivalent when fitness affects the former event of each update of the model, whereas the birth-death model is fundamentally different from the death-birth model when fitness affects the latter event.展开更多
Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Ar...Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(71690233,71971213,71901214)。
文摘Architecture framework has become an effective method recently to describe the system of systems(SoS)architecture,such as the United States(US)Department of Defense Architecture Framework Version 2.0(DoDAF2.0).As a viewpoint in DoDAF2.0,the operational viewpoint(OV)describes operational activities,nodes,and resource flows.The OV models are important for SoS architecture development.However,as the SoS complexity increases,constructing OV models with traditional methods exposes shortcomings,such as inefficient data collection and low modeling standards.Therefore,we propose an intelligent modeling method for five OV models,including operational resource flow OV-2,organizational relationships OV-4,operational activity hierarchy OV-5a,operational activities model OV-5b,and operational activity sequences OV-6c.The main idea of the method is to extract OV architecture data from text and generate interoperable OV models.First,we construct the OV meta model based on the DoDAF2.0 meta model(DM2).Second,OV architecture named entities is recognized from text based on the bidirectional long short-term memory and conditional random field(BiLSTM-CRF)model.And OV architecture relationships are collected with relationship extraction rules.Finally,we define the generation rules for OV models and develop an OV modeling tool.We use unmanned surface vehicles(USV)swarm target defense SoS architecture as a case to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the intelligent modeling method.
文摘Modeling HIV/AIDS progression is critical for understanding disease dynamics and improving patient care. This study compares the Exponential and Weibull survival models, focusing on their ability to capture state-specific failure rates in HIV/AIDS progression. While the Exponential model offers simplicity with a constant hazard rate, it often fails to accommodate the complexities of dynamic disease progression. In contrast, the Weibull model provides flexibility by allowing hazard rates to vary over time. Both models are evaluated within the frameworks of the Cox Proportional Hazards (Cox PH) and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models, incorporating critical covariates such as age, gender, CD4 count, and ART status. Statistical evaluation metrics, including Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), log-likelihood, and Pseudo-R2, were employed to assess model performance across diverse patient subgroups. Results indicate that the Weibull model consistently outperforms the Exponential model in dynamic scenarios, such as younger patients and those with co-infections, while maintaining robustness in stable contexts. This study highlights the trade-off between flexibility and simplicity in survival modeling, advocating for tailored model selection to balance interpretability and predictive accuracy. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing HIV/AIDS management strategies and advancing survival analysis methodologies.
基金supported by Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China(2020YFB1808101)the Project“5G evolution wireless air interface intelligent R&D and verification public platform project”supported by Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China(TC220A04M).
文摘In this paper,a physical model of RIS of bistatic polarized radar cross section is derived starting from the Stratton-Chu equations under the assumptions of physical optics,PEC,far field and rectangular RIS element.In the context of important physical characteristics of the backscattering polarization of RIS,the modeling of the RIS wireless channel requires a tradeoff between complexity and accuracy,as well as usability and simplicity.For channel modeling of RIS systems,RIS is modelled as multi-equivalent virtual base stations(BSs)induced by multi polarized electromagnetic waves from different incident directions.The comparison between test and simulation results demonstrates that the proposed algorithm effectively captures the key characteristics of the general RIS element polarization physical model and provides accurate results.
基金supported by the Program of Support Xinjiang by Technology(2024E02028,B2-2024-0359)Xinjiang Tianchi Talent Program of 2024,the Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences(B2-2023-0239)the Youth Foundation of Shandong Natural Science(ZR2023QD070).
文摘As one of the main characteristics of atmospheric pollutants,PM_(2.5) severely affects human health and has received widespread attention in recent years.How to predict the variations of PM_(2.5) concentrations with high accuracy is an important topic.The PM_(2.5) monitoring stations in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China,are unevenly distributed,which makes it challenging to conduct comprehensive analyses and predictions.Therefore,this study primarily addresses the limitations mentioned above and the poor generalization ability of PM_(2.5) concentration prediction models across different monitoring stations.We chose the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains as the study area and took the January−December in 2019 as the research period.On the basis of data from 21 PM_(2.5) monitoring stations as well as meteorological data(temperature,instantaneous wind speed,and pressure),we developed an improved model,namely GCN−TCN−AR(where GCN is the graph convolution network,TCN is the temporal convolutional network,and AR is the autoregression),for predicting PM_(2.5) concentrations on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.The GCN−TCN−AR model is composed of an improved GCN model,a TCN model,and an AR model.The results revealed that the R2 values predicted by the GCN−TCN−AR model at the four monitoring stations(Urumqi,Wujiaqu,Shihezi,and Changji)were 0.93,0.91,0.93,and 0.92,respectively,and the RMSE(root mean square error)values were 6.85,7.52,7.01,and 7.28μg/m^(3),respectively.The performance of the GCN−TCN−AR model was also compared with the currently neural network models,including the GCN−TCN,GCN,TCN,Support Vector Regression(SVR),and AR.The GCN−TCN−AR outperformed the other current neural network models,with high prediction accuracy and good stability,making it especially suitable for the predictions of PM_(2.5)concentrations.This study revealed the significant spatiotemporal variations of PM_(2.5)concentrations.First,the PM_(2.5) concentrations exhibited clear seasonal fluctuations,with higher levels typically observed in winter and differences presented between months.Second,the spatial distribution analysis revealed that cities such as Urumqi and Wujiaqu have high PM_(2.5) concentrations,with a noticeable geographical clustering of pollutions.Understanding the variations in PM_(2.5) concentrations is highly important for the sustainable development of ecological environment in arid areas.
基金supported by the Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field,CAS(grant No.YSBR-018)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant Nos.42188101,42130204)+4 种基金the B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS(grant no.XDB41000000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)Distinguished Overseas Young Talents Program,Innovation Program for Quantum Science and Technology(2021ZD0300301)the Open Research Project of Large Research Infrastructures of CAS-“Study on the interaction between low/mid-latitude atmosphere and ionosphere based on the Chinese Meridian Project”.The project was supported also by the National Key Laboratory of Deep Space Exploration(Grant No.NKLDSE2023A002)the Open Fund of Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Underground Detection(Grant No.APKLIUD23KF01)the China National Space Administration(CNSA)pre-research Project on Civil Aerospace Technologies No.D010305,D010301.
文摘Sporadic E(Es)layers in the ionosphere are characterized by intense plasma irregularities in the E region at altitudes of 90-130 km.Because they can significantly influence radio communications and navigation systems,accurate forecasting of Es layers is crucial for ensuring the precision and dependability of navigation satellite systems.In this study,we present Es predictions made by an empirical model and by a deep learning model,and analyze their differences comprehensively by comparing the model predictions to satellite RO measurements and ground-based ionosonde observations.The deep learning model exhibited significantly better performance,as indicated by its high coefficient of correlation(r=0.87)with RO observations and predictions,than did the empirical model(r=0.53).This study highlights the importance of integrating artificial intelligence technology into ionosphere modelling generally,and into predicting Es layer occurrences and characteristics,in particular.
文摘In order to enhance the control performance of piezo-positioning system,the influence of hysteresis characteristics and its compensation method are studied.Hammerstein model is used to represent the dynamic hysteresis nonlinear characteristics of piezo-positioning actuator.The static nonlinear part and dynamic linear part of the Hammerstein model are represented by models obtained through the Prandtl-Ishlinskii(PI)model and Hankel matrix system identification method,respectively.This model demonstrates good generalization capability for typical input frequencies below 200 Hz.A sliding mode inverse compensation tracking control strategy based on P-I inverse model and integral augmentation is proposed.Experimental results show that compared with PID inverse compensation control and sliding mode control without inverse compensation,the sliding mode inverse compensation control has a more ideal step response and no overshoot,moreover,the settling time is only 6.2 ms.In the frequency domain,the system closed-loop tracking bandwidth reaches 119.9 Hz,and the disturbance rejection bandwidth reaches 86.2 Hz.The proposed control strategy can effectively compensate the hysteresis nonlinearity,and improve the tracking accuracy and antidisturbance capability of piezo-positioning system.
文摘This paper presents a comparative study of ARIMA and Neural Network AutoRegressive (NNAR) models for time series forecasting. The study focuses on simulated data generated using ARIMA(1, 1, 0) and applies both models for training and forecasting. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, AIC, and BIC. The models are further applied to neonatal mortality data from Saudi Arabia to assess their predictive capabilities. The results indicate that the NNAR model outperforms ARIMA in both training and forecasting.
文摘The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination tracker dashboard. GIS-based exploratory analysis was conducted to select four variables (poverty, black race, population density, and vaccination) to explain COVID-19 occurrence during the study period. Consequently, spatial statistical techniques such as Moran’s I, Hot Spot Analysis, Spatial Lag Model (SLM), and Spatial Error Model (SEM) were used to explain the COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate across the 88 counties in Ohio. The result of the Local Moran’s I analysis reveals that the epicenters of COVID-19 and vaccination followed the same patterns. Indeed, counties like Summit, Franklin, Fairfield, Hamilton, and Medina were categorized as epicenters for both COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate. The SEM seems to be the best model for both COVID-19 and vaccination rates, with R2 values of 0.68 and 0.70, respectively. The GWR analysis proves to be better than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and the distribution of R2 in the GWR is uneven throughout the study area for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. Some counties have a high R2 of up to 0.70 for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. The outcomes of the regression analyses show that the SEM models can explain 68% - 70% of COVID-19 cases and vaccination across the entire counties within the study period. COVID-19 cases and vaccination rates exhibited significant positive associations with black race and poverty throughout the study area.
文摘Bangladesh has a denser population in comparison with many other countries. Though the rate of population increase has been regarded as a concerning issue, estimation of the population instability in the upcoming years may be useful for national planning. To predict Bangladesh’s future population, this study compares the estimated populations of two popular population models, the Malthusian and the logistic population models, with the country’s census population published by BBS. We also tried to find out which model gives a better approximation for forecasting the past, present, and future population between these two models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52239002,52109071,32361143871,52411540183&52209072)the Pinduoduo-China Agricultural University Research Fund(Grant No.PC2023A02002)。
文摘In the context of global change,ensuring national food security and achieving sustainable development of agricultural production systems have become major challenges worldwide.To address these issues,regional-scale crop growth and associated process(CROP-AP)models,with their robust simulation and predictive capabilities,have emerged as important tools for studying a wide range of issues relating to agricultural production at river basin,national,and even global scales.Here,we provide a systematic review of the advances of regional-scale CROP-AP models.First,regional-scale CROP-AP models are categorized based on model characteristics:statistical models,crop growth models,hydrology-crop coupling models,and ecosystem models.The origin,development,principle,structure,and application of each model type are introduced.Then,the main functions of regional-scale CROP-AP models are critically reviewed from five aspects:crop yield prediction,crop water consumption,agricultural non-point source pollution,greenhouse gas emissions,and climate change impact and responses.Finally,the future development trends and research priorities of regional-scale CROP-AP models are explored from six key perspectives:model validation and calibration,the ability to simulate the coupling of crop physiology and human activities,enhancing model scalability,multi-model ensembles,data and code sharing,and the integration of artificial intelligence.This review aims to provide comprehensive references and insights for the further development and application of large-scale,high-precision CROP-AP models.
基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(M23JBZY00050)National Natural Science Foundation of China(22278032)。
文摘The kinetic characteristics of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia are studied by using the global/fluid models hybrid solution method.Firstly,the stable products of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia are measured.The results show that the consumption of NH_(3)/O_(2)and the production of N_(2)/H_(2)change linearly with the increase of voltage,which indicates the decoupling of nonequilibrium molecular excitation and oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia at low temperatures.Secondly,the detailed reaction kinetics mechanism of ammonia oxidative pyrolysis stimulated by a nanosecond pulse voltage at low pressure and room temperature is established.Based on the reaction path analysis,the simplified mechanism is obtained.The detailed and simplified mechanism simulation results are compared with experimental data to verify the accuracy of the simplified mechanism.Finally,based on the simplified mechanism,the fluid model of ammonia oxidative pyrolysis stimulated by the nanosecond pulse plasma is established to study the pre-sheath/sheath behavior and the resultant consumption and formation of key species.The results show that the generation,development,and propagation of the pre-sheath have a great influence on the formation and consumption of species.The consumption of NH_(3)by the cathode pre-sheath is greater than that by the anode pre-sheath,but the opposite is true for OH and O(1S).However,within the sheath,almost all reactions do not occur.Further,by changing the parameters of nanosecond pulse power supply voltage,it is found that the electron number density,electron current density,and applied peak voltages are not the direct reasons for the structural changes of the sheath and pre-sheath.Furthermore,the discharge interval has little effect on the sheath structure and gas mixture breakdown.The research results of this paper not only help to understand the kinetic promotion of non-equilibrium excitation in the process of oxidative pyrolysis but also help to explore the influence of transport and chemical reaction kinetics on the oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia.
文摘This paper develops a comprehensive computational modeling and simulation framework based on Complex Adaptive Systems(CAS)theory to unveil the underlying mechanisms of self-organization,nonlinear evolution,and emergence in social systems.By integrating mathematical models,agent-based modeling,network dynamic analysis,and hybrid modeling approaches,the study applies CAS theory to case studies in economic markets,political decision-making,and social interactions.The experimental results demonstrate that local interactions among individual agents can give rise to complex global phenomena,such as market fluctuations,opinion polarization,and sudden outbreaks of social movements.This framework not only provides a more robust explanation for the nonlinear dynamics and abrupt transitions that traditional models often fail to capture,but also offers valuable decision-support tools for public policy formulation,social governance,and risk management.Emphasizing the importance of interdisciplinary approaches,this work outlines future research directions in high-performance computing,artificial intelligence,and real-time data integration to further advance the theoretical and practical applications of CAS in the social sciences.
基金National Key R&D Program of China,Grant/Award Number:2021YFC2502100,2023YFC3603404 and 2019YFA0111900The National Natural Science Foundation of China,Grant/Award Number:82072506,82272611 and 92268115+7 种基金The Hunan Provincial Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars,Grant/Award Number:2024JJ2089The Hunan Young Talents of Science and Technology,Grant/Award Number:2021RC3025The Provincial Clinical Medical Technology Innovation Project of Hunan,Grant/Award Number:2023SK2024 and 2020SK53709The Provincial Natural Science Foundation of Hunan,Grant/Award Number:2020JJ3060The National Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,Grant/Award Number:2023JJ30949The National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders,Xiangya Hospital,Grant/Award Number:2021KFJJ02 and 2021LNJJ05The Hunan Provincial Innovation Foundation for Postgraduate,Grant/Award Number:CX20230308 and CX20230312The Independent Exploration and Innovation Project for Postgraduate Students of Central South University,Grant/Award Number:2024ZZTS0163。
文摘Frozen shoulder(FS),also known as adhesive capsulitis,is a condition that causes contraction and stiffness of the shoulder joint capsule.The main symptoms are per-sistent shoulder pain and a limited range of motion in all directions.These symp-toms and poor prognosis affect people's physical health and quality of life.Currently,the specific mechanisms of FS remain unclear,and there is variability in treatment methods and their efficacy.Additionally,the early symptoms of FS are difficult to distinguish from those of other shoulder diseases,complicating early diagnosis and treatment.Therefore,it is necessary to develop and utilize animal models to under-stand the pathogenesis of FS and to explore treatment strategies,providing insights into the prevention and treatment of human FS.This paper reviews the rat models available for FS research,including external immobilization models,surgical internal immobilization models,injection modeling models,and endocrine modeling models.It introduces the basic procedures for these models and compares and analyzes the advantages,disadvantages,and applicability of each modeling method.Finally,our paper summarizes the common methods for evaluating FS rat models.
基金support from Strategic Project of Precision Surgery,Tsinghua UniversityInitiative Scientific Research Program,Institute for Intelligent Healthcare,Tsinghua University+5 种基金Tsinghua-Foshan Institute of Advanced ManufacturingNational Natural Science Foundation of China(61735016)Beijing Nova Program(20230484308)Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST(2023QNRC001)Youth Elite Program of Beijing Friendship Hospital(YYQCJH2022-9)Science and Technology Program of Beijing Tongzhou District(KJ2023CX012).
文摘Foundation models(FMs)have rapidly evolved and have achieved signicant accomplishments in computer vision tasks.Specically,the prompt mechanism conveniently allows users to integrate image prior information into the model,making it possible to apply models without any training.Therefore,we proposed a workflow based on foundation models and zero training to solve the tasks of photoacoustic(PA)image processing.We employed the Segment Anything Model(SAM)by setting simple prompts and integrating the model's outputs with prior knowledge of the imaged objects to accomplish various tasks,including:(1)removing the skin signal in three-dimensional PA image rendering;(2)dual speed-of-sound reconstruction,and(3)segmentation ofnger blood vessels.Through these demonstrations,we have concluded that FMs can be directly applied in PA imaging without the requirement for network design and training.This potentially allows for a hands-on,convenient approach to achieving efficient and accurate segmentation of PA images.This paper serves as a comprehensive tutorial,facilitating the mastery of the technique through the provision of code and sample datasets.
文摘Sentiment analysis,a cornerstone of natural language processing,has witnessed remarkable advancements driven by deep learning models which demonstrated impressive accuracy in discerning sentiment from text across various domains.However,the deployment of such models in resource-constrained environments presents a unique set of challenges that require innovative solutions.Resource-constrained environments encompass scenarios where computing resources,memory,and energy availability are restricted.To empower sentiment analysis in resource-constrained environments,we address the crucial need by leveraging lightweight pre-trained models.These models,derived from popular architectures such as DistilBERT,MobileBERT,ALBERT,TinyBERT,ELECTRA,and SqueezeBERT,offer a promising solution to the resource limitations imposed by these environments.By distilling the knowledge from larger models into smaller ones and employing various optimization techniques,these lightweight models aim to strike a balance between performance and resource efficiency.This paper endeavors to explore the performance of multiple lightweight pre-trained models in sentiment analysis tasks specific to such environments and provide insights into their viability for practical deployment.
基金supported by the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation,China(Grant Nos.ZR2023QE041,ZR2021ME063)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2023M731862)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51975112)。
文摘The thermally activated effect can produce a vital influence on the mechanical property and cutting force of metal materials in the machining process.An insight can be gained into the action criteria of the thermally activated effect on the cutting force,which provides a solid basis of the research of material performance and machinability.In this study,a cutting force model of selective laser melted(SLMed)Ti6Al4V alloy is proposed by introducing the modified constitutive model with thermally activated effects and the analytical model of the deformation zone into the cutting force model.The anisotropic properties of SLMed Ti6Al4V alloy under different scanning strategies(0°,67.5°,and 90°)are explored by combining with the cutting force model,constitutive model and analytical model of deformation zone(primary deformation and tool-chip contact area).The action of thermally activated effects on the cutting force,primary deformation and tool-chip contact zone is also researched in detail.Milling experiments and predictions of SLMed Ti6Al4V alloy under different scanning strategies have been implemented to reveal the effectiveness of this new model.The comparison results indicate that the proposed milling force model can effectively predict milling force and reflect well on the anisotropy of SLMed Ti6Al4V alloy.In addition,this proposed force model can well analyze the action mechanism of the thermally activated effect on the milling force of SLMed Ti6Al4V alloy,which is significantly essential for the machining mechanism research in terms of a microscopic perspective.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42175052 and U2442206)the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(Grant No.23NLTSQ007,23NLTSZ003)+2 种基金the Innovative Development Special Project of the China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.CXFZ2023J002)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2023YFC3007700,2024YFC3013100)the China Meteorological Administration Youth Innovation Team(Grant No.CMA2024QN06)。
文摘Based on the hindcasts from five subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)models participating in the S2S Prediction Project,this study evaluates the performance of the multimodel ensemble(MME)approach in predicting the subseasonal precipitation anomalies during summer in China and reveals the contributions of possible driving factors.The results suggest that while single-model ensembles(SMEs)exhibit constrained predictive skills within a limited forecast lead time of three pentads,the MME illustrates an enhanced predictive skill at a lead time of up to four pentads,and even six pentads,in southern China.Based on both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics,the MME consistently outperforms SMEs,with a more evident advantage observed in probabilistic forecasting.The superior performance of the MME is primarily attributable to the increase in ensemble size,and the enhanced model diversity is also a contributing factor.The reliability of probabilistic skill is largely improved due to the increase in ensemble members,while the resolution term does not exhibit consistent improvement.Furthermore,the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)is revealed as the primary driving factor for the successful prediction of summer precipitation in China using the MME.The improvement by the MME is not solely attributable to the enhancement in the inherent predictive capacity of the MJO itself,but derives from its capability in capturing the more realistic relationship between the MJO and subseasonal precipitation anomalies in China.This study establishes a scientific foundation for acknowledging the advantageous predictive capability of the MME approach in subseasonal predictions of summer precipitation in China,and sheds light on further improving S2S predictions.
基金Fifth Electronic Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology(HK07202200877)Pre-research Project on Civil Aerospace Technologies of CNSA(D020101)+2 种基金Zhejiang Provincial Science and Technology Plan Project(2022C01052)Frontier Scientific Research Program of Deep Space Exploration Laboratory(2022-QYKYJHHXYF-018,2022-QYKYJH-GCXD-001)Zhiyuan Laboratory(ZYL2024001)。
文摘Model-based system-of-systems(SOS)engineering(MBSoSE)is becoming a promising solution for the design of SoS with increasing complexity.However,bridging the models from the design phase to the simulation phase poses significant challenges and requires an integrated approach.In this study,a unified requirement modeling approach is proposed based on unified architecture framework(UAF).Theoretical models are proposed which compose formalized descriptions from both topdown and bottom-up perspectives.Based on the description,the UAF profile is proposed to represent the SoS mission and constituent systems(CS)goal.Moreover,the agent-based simulation information is also described based on the overview,design concepts,and details(ODD)protocol as the complement part of the SoS profile,which can be transformed into different simulation platforms based on the eXtensible markup language(XML)technology and model-to-text method.In this way,the design of the SoS is simulated automatically in the early design stage.Finally,the method is implemented and an example is given to illustrate the whole process.
基金supported in part by the NIH grant R01CA241134supported in part by the NSF grant CMMI-1552764+3 种基金supported in part by the NSF grants DMS-1349724 and DMS-2052465supported in part by the NSF grant CCF-1740761supported in part by the U.S.-Norway Fulbright Foundation and the Research Council of Norway R&D Grant 309273supported in part by the Norwegian Centennial Chair grant and the Doctoral Dissertation Fellowship from the University of Minnesota.
文摘The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world applications, the population usually has an explicit spatial structure which can significantly influence the dynamics. In the context of cancer initiation in epithelial tissue, several recent works have analyzed the dynamics of advantageous mutant spread on integer lattices, using the biased voter model from particle systems theory. In this spatial version of the Moran model, individuals first reproduce according to their fitness and then replace a neighboring individual. From a biological standpoint, the opposite dynamics, where individuals first die and are then replaced by a neighboring individual according to its fitness, are equally relevant. Here, we investigate this death-birth analogue of the biased voter model. We construct the process mathematically, derive the associated dual process, establish bounds on the survival probability of a single mutant, and prove that the process has an asymptotic shape. We also briefly discuss alternative birth-death and death-birth dynamics, depending on how the mutant fitness advantage affects the dynamics. We show that birth-death and death-birth formulations of the biased voter model are equivalent when fitness affects the former event of each update of the model, whereas the birth-death model is fundamentally different from the death-birth model when fitness affects the latter event.
基金supported by the Chinese–Norwegian Collaboration Projects within Climate Systems jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2022YFE0106800)the Research Council of Norway funded project,MAPARC (Grant No.328943)+2 种基金the support from the Research Council of Norway funded project,COMBINED (Grant No.328935)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42075030)the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX23_1314)。
文摘Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).
