Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented, that is, the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian s...Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented, that is, the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then, we take centrai China as the study region, and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.展开更多
An analytics method of predicting the annual variation rate (AVR) of global sea-level (GSL) is developed.Through the calculation by using the mean sea-level data collected from the tidal gauge stations over the world,...An analytics method of predicting the annual variation rate (AVR) of global sea-level (GSL) is developed.Through the calculation by using the mean sea-level data collected from the tidal gauge stations over the world, a GSL rise of 0. 15～0. 16 cm/a is obtained. The predicted values of AVR of GSL for the 21st century are presented. The authors' results have been compared to those reported by other scientists at home and abroad. The method proposedhere is more convenient and precise.展开更多
The mortgage of land contract management rights has launched a pilot project in Ningxia,Hubei,Henan,Guizhou,Chongqing and other provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,which provides a good solution to the pro...The mortgage of land contract management rights has launched a pilot project in Ningxia,Hubei,Henan,Guizhou,Chongqing and other provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,which provides a good solution to the problem of funds for rural development and plays a huge role in promoting local rural economic development.In the mortgage financing of land contract management rights implemented in various regions,how to determine a scientific,accurate and reasonable mortgage rate of land contract management rights becomes a difficulty troubling the mortgage financing of land.On the basis of unified annual output value of land,this article uses survey method,income capitalization method,and comparison method to analyze the value of land contract management rights,and finally determine the mortgage rates of land contract management rights.展开更多
目的分析1990—2021年间中国育龄女性(15~49岁)牙周病疾病负担现状及变化趋势,为制定育龄期女性牙周病防治策略提供参考依据。方法利用1990—2021年全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)数据,对育龄期女性牙周病的患病率、发病...目的分析1990—2021年间中国育龄女性(15~49岁)牙周病疾病负担现状及变化趋势,为制定育龄期女性牙周病防治策略提供参考依据。方法利用1990—2021年全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)数据,对育龄期女性牙周病的患病率、发病率、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs)、DALY率及其相应标化指标等牙周病疾病负担数据进行研究,分析牙周疾病负担状况及其变化趋势。采用Joinpoint 5.2.0.0对DALYs和年龄DALY率进行时间趋势分析,采用对数线性回归模型分别计算DALYs和DALY率的年平均变化率(annual average percentage change,AAPC)及趋势检验结果。结果与1990年相比,2021年中国女性牙周病患病率、发病率分别增加了45.67%(每10万人)和29.29%(每10万人)。15~49岁育龄期阶段牙周病患病情况分布呈持续快速上升趋势,增长幅度随着年龄增加而迅速增大,患病数在45~49岁年龄段增长最快,患病率在35~44岁年龄段增长最快。育龄期女性牙周病发病率随着年龄增长持续上升,发病率增长最快为35~44岁年龄段。Joinpoint回归模型结果显示牙周病导致中国育龄期女性疾病负担出现不断扩大的趋势,DALYs的AAPC为1.20%,DALY率的AAPC为1.25%(P<0.001)。结论1990—2021年间中国育龄女性(15~49岁)牙周病疾病负担呈现逐渐加重的趋势。展开更多
The lofty and extensive Tibetan Plateau has significant mass elevation effect(MEE). In recent years, a great effort has been made to quantify MEE, with the recognition of intra-mountain basal elevation(MBE) as the mai...The lofty and extensive Tibetan Plateau has significant mass elevation effect(MEE). In recent years, a great effort has been made to quantify MEE, with the recognition of intra-mountain basal elevation(MBE) as the main determinant of MEE. In this study, we improved the method of estimating MEE with MODIS and NECP data, by refining temperature laps rate, and dividing MBE plots, and then analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of MEE in the Plateau. The main conclusions include: 1) the highest average annual MEE of the plateau is as high as 11.5488°C in the southwest of the plateau, where exists a high-MEE core and MEE takes on a trend of decreasing from the core to the surrounding areas; 2) in the interior of the plateau, the maximum monthly MEE is 14.1108°C in the highest MBE plot(4934 m) in August; while the minimum monthly MEE appeared primarily in January and February; 3) in the peripheral areas of the plateau, annual mean MEE is relatively low, mostly between 3.0068°C–5.1972°C, where monthly MEE is high in January and December and low in June and July, completely different from the MEE time-series variation in the internal parts of the plateau.展开更多
基金sponsored by the National Key Technology R&D Program,China (2006BAC13B01)
文摘Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented, that is, the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then, we take centrai China as the study region, and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.
文摘An analytics method of predicting the annual variation rate (AVR) of global sea-level (GSL) is developed.Through the calculation by using the mean sea-level data collected from the tidal gauge stations over the world, a GSL rise of 0. 15～0. 16 cm/a is obtained. The predicted values of AVR of GSL for the 21st century are presented. The authors' results have been compared to those reported by other scientists at home and abroad. The method proposedhere is more convenient and precise.
基金Supported by Guangxi Philosophy and Social Science Project in 2011(11CJY001)Research Project of Guangxi Department of Education(201106LX628)
文摘The mortgage of land contract management rights has launched a pilot project in Ningxia,Hubei,Henan,Guizhou,Chongqing and other provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,which provides a good solution to the problem of funds for rural development and plays a huge role in promoting local rural economic development.In the mortgage financing of land contract management rights implemented in various regions,how to determine a scientific,accurate and reasonable mortgage rate of land contract management rights becomes a difficulty troubling the mortgage financing of land.On the basis of unified annual output value of land,this article uses survey method,income capitalization method,and comparison method to analyze the value of land contract management rights,and finally determine the mortgage rates of land contract management rights.
文摘目的分析1990—2021年间中国育龄女性(15~49岁)牙周病疾病负担现状及变化趋势,为制定育龄期女性牙周病防治策略提供参考依据。方法利用1990—2021年全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)数据,对育龄期女性牙周病的患病率、发病率、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs)、DALY率及其相应标化指标等牙周病疾病负担数据进行研究,分析牙周疾病负担状况及其变化趋势。采用Joinpoint 5.2.0.0对DALYs和年龄DALY率进行时间趋势分析,采用对数线性回归模型分别计算DALYs和DALY率的年平均变化率(annual average percentage change,AAPC)及趋势检验结果。结果与1990年相比,2021年中国女性牙周病患病率、发病率分别增加了45.67%(每10万人)和29.29%(每10万人)。15~49岁育龄期阶段牙周病患病情况分布呈持续快速上升趋势,增长幅度随着年龄增加而迅速增大,患病数在45~49岁年龄段增长最快,患病率在35~44岁年龄段增长最快。育龄期女性牙周病发病率随着年龄增长持续上升,发病率增长最快为35~44岁年龄段。Joinpoint回归模型结果显示牙周病导致中国育龄期女性疾病负担出现不断扩大的趋势,DALYs的AAPC为1.20%,DALY率的AAPC为1.25%(P<0.001)。结论1990—2021年间中国育龄女性(15~49岁)牙周病疾病负担呈现逐渐加重的趋势。
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41401111 and 41601091)
文摘The lofty and extensive Tibetan Plateau has significant mass elevation effect(MEE). In recent years, a great effort has been made to quantify MEE, with the recognition of intra-mountain basal elevation(MBE) as the main determinant of MEE. In this study, we improved the method of estimating MEE with MODIS and NECP data, by refining temperature laps rate, and dividing MBE plots, and then analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of MEE in the Plateau. The main conclusions include: 1) the highest average annual MEE of the plateau is as high as 11.5488°C in the southwest of the plateau, where exists a high-MEE core and MEE takes on a trend of decreasing from the core to the surrounding areas; 2) in the interior of the plateau, the maximum monthly MEE is 14.1108°C in the highest MBE plot(4934 m) in August; while the minimum monthly MEE appeared primarily in January and February; 3) in the peripheral areas of the plateau, annual mean MEE is relatively low, mostly between 3.0068°C–5.1972°C, where monthly MEE is high in January and December and low in June and July, completely different from the MEE time-series variation in the internal parts of the plateau.
